China s ZEV Credit Policy September 5-6, 2017 In Brussels

Transcription

1 Yunshi Wang, Co-director, China-U.S. ZEV Policy Lab and Director, China Center for Energy and Transportation China s ZEV Credit Policy September 5-6, 2017 In Brussels

2 China is Adopting California ZEV Mandate UC Davis CATARC China-U.S. ZEV Policy Lab with support from NDRC and CARB September 6, 2014; Tianjin, China

3 The ZEV Policy Lab is a unique platform for stakeholder participation & informed discussions with gov t officials (NDRC, MOF, MIIT, CATARC) 2015 China-California and 2017 California-China-EU Policy Workshops intense discussion and information exchanges

4 June 2017, California Governor Jerry Brown and CARB Chair Mary Nichols went to China to continue the cooperation on climate changes and promote ZEV deployment

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6 U.S.- China PEV Development US PEV Sales /14 16/15 BEVs 67,851 71,158 84, % 18.4% PHEVs 55,357 43,143 72, % 69.1% Total PEVs 123, , , % 37.5% Total Auto Sales 16,435,226 17,396,291 17,465,202 PEVs as % of Auto Sales 0.75% 0.66% 0.90% China PEV Sales /14 16/15 Total BEVs 45, , , % 65.3% Total PHEVs 29,715 83,610 98, % 17.2% Total PEVs 74, , , % 53.1% Total Auto Sales 24,597,600 24,597,600 28,030,000 PEVs as % of Auto Sales 0.30% 1.35% 1.81% Source: US numbers from Hybridcars.com; Chinese numbers from CAAM

7 CAAM Claims: China s 2016 sales reaches 40% of the global market; China now has a PEV stock of over 1 million, accounting for more than half of the world PEV population. China 2016 PEV Sales Breakdown Sub-category Sales As % of Total Passenger Vehicles 322, % BEVs 242,271 PHEVs 80,562 NEV Buses 123, % Others 12.0% Total PEVs 507, % Note: because these data are from different sources; there are might have some minor differences. CAAM claim that Passenger PEV sales accounted for 65% of the total. Source for BEV Bus: source for PEVs: Source for total NEV:

8 Why did the Chinese PEV Market take off in ? Monetary Incentives could be 10 times more than the U.S. Non-monetary Incentives vehicle ownership restrictions Innovative business models and others car sharing business Issues to be addressed protectionism and cheating

9 Motivations of China s EV Policy National Security-Energy Dependency The Strait of Malacca dilemma Heavy dependency on Imported Oil,65-68% Resources imbalance (lot s of coal and rear earth materials, not much oil, and little NG) Industrial Policy Leapfrogging (JV accounts for 4/5 and 7/10 top sellers in China in 2016) Renewable Industry Expansion Regional GDP (Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hefei) Environmental Policy Smog (PM 2.5) in megacities: Beijing and Shanghai Meeting China s international commitment to Climate changes

10 Players in China s EV Sector MoST Minister WAN Gang 863 R&D Program Ten city and One Thousand Program MIIT September 2016, the designated regulator of the auto industry Certification and List CAFC and ZEV Policy NDRC August 2016, Permit to production and expansion Special List for NEV producers Carbon Tax MoF Subsidies: use ZEV Mandate to replace subsidies Taxes EV100 DRC-Development and Research Center of the State Council, an advisory body to the Premier CATARC testing and certification, provides staff and advice to NDRC, MIIT, MOF CAAM (China Association of Automotive Manufacturers) works closely with MIIT SAE-China State Grid and Southern State Grid Tsinghua University Professor Ouyang Minggao s Group

11 The Evolution of the ZEV Credit Policy (for passenger vehicles only) Original Proposal in September 2016: 2018: 8%; 2019; 10%; 2020: 12% Current Proposal (likely to be adopted soon) 2019: 10%; 2020: 12% 2019 s targets can be met in The Government s Long-term Targets: 2020: 2M or 6.7% of the total; M or 20% of the total vehicles (passenger and commercial vehicles).

12 The Differences Between the Old and New NEV Credit Policy Proposals The formula changes from steps to a slope line with more credits for BEVs New Formula: 0.012*R+0.8 Old New Credits

13 Technical Requirement for BEV Energy Consumption (2016 BEVs) The steeper line encourages Encourage small and lighter small and BEVs, lighter and BEVs, the flatter and discourage line discourages big and big and heavy heavy ones ones with with stricter energy stricter efficiency energy efficiency requirement credits 1.0 credits 1.2 credits Source: CATARC Curb Curb weight

14 Comparison Between ZEV and Proposed NEV Credit Policies: Similar? California MIIT (Proposal) Regulatory Territory 10 states, about 28% of the U.S. market Nationwide OEM s Regulated Sales > 20,000; and 4,500 and 20,000 Production/Imports > 50, Minimum Mandate in 4.5%, 7%, 9.5%...22% (2025) 10%, 12% ( ) Credits If an OEM with 100,000 Passenger Cars in either sales or production in 2019 i.e. Nissan Leaf (R = UAER 160 Miles=2) Will need 3500 vehicles A BEV with 256 km= will need vehicles Target each year Sales Volume Production The minimum and maximum limits for 10 miles = 0.4/0.6 credits. 50 miles PHEVs = 50 km = 2 Credits PHEVs (blended vs PHEVs) 0.8 or non-blended=1.0 Life of Credits Permanent Valid only in the same year Exchangeable between CAFÉ/CAFC No;but the same PEV in CAFÉ counts as Yes zero/low energy consumption Minimum ZEV Requirement (BEVs and FCEVs) Yes, 2% (2018); 4% (2019); 6% (2020) No. PHEVs alone can meet the NEV Requirements Fine One ZEV Vehicle in Deficit: $ ,500 No. (No law supports this) Administrative Penalty If there is a proof that OEMs didn t try to meet the ZEV requirement, then they will be suspended from selling vehicles in California OEMs will be forced to reduce the production of high consumption vehicles, at least the same number of the NEV credits in deficit (1 credit = 1 V)

15 Questions Do we still need incentives? What is the right linkage between CAFC and ZEV: 50% ceiling ZEV for DAVC? 57(96.6%)-123 OEMs: An exchange market vs private negotiation; which is better How long should credits be allowed to be banked? Do we need a reference price--ceiling/floor price? And what is the price for a ZEV/NEV credit anyway?

16 Beyond 2020, ZEV Mandate Alone May Not be Sufficient to Substitute Subsidies ZEV Target in % ZEV Credit Required 75% 23% 20% 6% 7% 2% 2016 (real)

17 THANK YOU! QUESTIONS?