Bob Yuhnke Southwest Energy Efficiency Project Regional Air Quality Council 8/6/2010
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1 Bob Yuhnke Southwest Energy Efficiency Project Regional Air Quality Council 8/6/2010
2 Millions of Tons of CO Levels Emissions Eliminated Due to Adoption and Extension of Clean Car Standards Emissions Eliminated Due to VMT Reductions from Transit Development, Urban Design & User Fees Emissions Eliminated Due to 40% Penetration of Plug-In Electric Hybrids by 2040: Possible through Feebate Emissions Eliminated Due to VMT Reductions from Pay as You Drive Insurance Emissions Eliminated Due to Remaining Policies that Improve Fuel Efficiency CAP Goal: 20% below 2005 levels 2050 CAP Goal: 80% below 2005 levels Emissions between are projected trends Emissions Eliminated Due to Improving Heavy Truck Efficiency Remaining Emissions Due to Aircraft Remaining Emissions Due to Diesel Consumption Remaining Emissions Due to Gasoline Consumption
3 Federal and State Strategies Extending Clean Car Standards beyond 2016 State Strategies Promotion of Fuel Efficient Vehicles Total Costs ($ millions) Total Benefits ($ millions) Net Benefits ($ millions) $ Benefit per ton of avoided CO 2 3,190 6,598 3, A Feebate/PHEV 386 4,643 4, B Accelerated Retirement 246 1, VMT Reduction 2 3 Transit Development Urban Design 6,200 10,239 4, User Fees 5 PAYD 6 6,397 6, Vehicle Enhancements & Operating Conditions 6 55 Speed Limit 0 7,980 7, Efficient Tires 64 2,240 2, Heavy Duty Trucks 8 Efficiency Requirement 1,130 4,300 3, Diesel Hybrid & Longer, Heavier Trailers 781 2,282 1, Clean Car Standards Cumulative 12,043 46,333 34,
4 Tons per Day Baseline Blueprint NOx VOC NOx VOC
5 Fuel Savings (barrels) Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $3.21 (2008 price) Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $2.50 Cumulative Fuel Cost Savings $4.00 PAYD 11.6 million $984 million $767 million $1.2 billion VMT Reduction 13.3 million $1.1 billion $877 million $1.4 billion Cash for Clunkers 5.1 million $442 million $344 million $551 million Speed Limit 15 million $1.3 billion $1.0 billion $1.6 billion Total 45.0 million $3.82 billion $2.98 billion $4.75 billion
6 Tons per Day NOx Speed Limit Cash for Clunkers PAYD VMT Suite Remaining NOx Emissions
7 Tons per Day VOC Cash for Clunkers 60 PAYD VMT Suite 40 Remaining VOC Emissions
8 VMT Reductions NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 2.8 million VMT % % 2.9% 8.9 million VMT 8% 2.2 tons 3.1% 5.6 tons 10.2% 2.5 tons 3.1% 6.8 tons 9.9%
9 Project Projected Cost (billions) Funds Available Funding Shortfall I-25 North $4.4 $0.3 $4.1 I-70 West $8.6 $1.6 $7.0 I-70 East $1.2-$1.9 $0.4 $0.8-$1.5 FasTracks $6.5 $4.1 $2.4 Total $20.7 -$21.4 $6.4 $ $15.0
10 Authorizes user fees to fund new capacity. Requires agreement of all local jurisdictions affected by project. Exempt from TABOR because fees fund an enterprise. - Authorizes expenditure of fees on facilities that reduce GHG emissions. - Authorizes collection of fees for use of existing capacity in addition to new capacity.
11 Illinois Tollway (2008) Indiana Toll Road New York Thruway (2010) Ohio Turnpike Colorado: I-70 and I-25 Pennsylvania Turnpike New Jersey Turnpike Toll Roads Cost per Mile $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.00
12 Estimated 29.7 million Daily VMT in 2020 on I-70 and I-25 corridors within nonattainment area User fees would reduce VMT an estimated 664,000 miles/day (2.2%) Based on elasticity of A 10% increase in driving costs results in a 2% reduction in VMT.
13 Assumptions for SWEEP VMT scenario: Complete FasTracks/NexTracks buildout 80% of new housing and jobs within walk/bike access to regional transit station User fees on all major regional highways 1% annual reduction in VMT/capita in metro areas DRCOG most aggressive scenario F (2007): 3.5 billion annual VMT reduction SWEEP scenario: 10 billion annual VMT reduction
14 Cost: $10.6 billion $5.3 billion if 50% federal share Benefits: 85 million barrels of oil saved (assumes 55 mpg CAFE by 2030) $4.4 billion avoided fuel costs (at $3.21/gallon) $2.3 billion in infrastructure cost savings (DRCOG estimate for Scenario F compared to Vision baseline) 2.4 million tons of avoided CO 2 emissions 24% reduction in gasoline CO 2 emissions in 2035 compared to Vision baseline
15 VMT Reductions NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 2.6 million VMT % % 2.6% 7.8 million VMT 6.9% 2.0 tons 2.8% 4.9 tons 8.9% 2.3 tons 2.8% 5.9 tons 8.6%
16 mph 60 mph 55 mph 60 mph NOx Reductions VOC Reductions 17 tons 0.5 tons 6.3 tons 0.3 tons tons 0.0 tons tons tons
17 NOx VOC Average ICE New ICE (Federal Standard) Civic CNG Prius Electric Vehicle
18 Millions of Tons Gasoline Natural Gas (100%) Electric (coal mix & 25% gasoline) Electric (no coal & 25% gasoline) Electric (no coal & 25% biofuel) 5 80% below 2005 levels
19 State Income Tax Credit, HB % tax credit for incremental cost Revenue Neutral Cash for Clunkers (proposed) Fee on least efficient 50% of new vehicle sales Reward for scrapping vehicles < 16 mpg and > 8 years old Voucher for purchase of top 20% of passenger vehicles and top 10% of light trucks in current model year Voucher worth 50% more if used to purchase high efficiency vehicle
20 NOx Reductions VOC Reductions % % 1.6 tons 2.3% 2.5 tons 4.5% 1.7 tons 2.1% 2.9 tons 4.2%
21 Make/Model EV or PHEV Battery Size (kwh) Electric Range (miles) Target Intro in US Estimated Price Audi A1 Sportback PHEV BMW ActiveE EV Field trial in 2011 BYD E6 EV Up to BYD F3DM PHEV $22,000 Coda Sedan EV $45,000 Daimler Smart ED EV Fisker Karma PHEV $87,900 Ford Escape PHEV Ford Focus EV Chevy Volt PHEV $35,000? Hyundai Blue Will PHEV Hyundai i10 EV Mitsubishi imiev PHEV (limited) $47,500 Fiat Micro-Vett e500 EV Nissan Leaf EV (limited) $32,780 Tesla Model S EV $57,400 Tesla Roadster EV $109,000 Think City EV Toyota Prius PHEV mass production 2012 $27,550 Volkswagen Twin Drive PHEV Volvo V70 PHEV
22
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