世界の電力市場見通し 気候変動に関する有識者会合

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1 世界の電力市場見通し 気候変動に関する有識者会合 第一回 黒﨑 美穂 January 9, 218

2 世界の電力市場見通し クリーンエネルギー投資と設備導入量 1 January 9, 218

3 クリーンエネルギー新規投資額 $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) $3 billion Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro January 9, 218

4 クリーンエネルギー新規投資額と設備容量 5. 16GW GW $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) $3 billion Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro January 9, 218

5 24 年までの電力市場への投資予測太陽光と風力は総投資額の 6% Investment, by technology, Investment, by technology, ($ trillion real) Fossil fuels 14% Wind Solar $2.8 $3.3 $1.2 trillion Nuclear $1.4 Zerocarbon 86% Hydro Gas $.8 $1.1 Coal $.7 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4 January 9, 218

6 太陽光と風力が世界の主な電源構成を占める Global cumulative installed capacity: 216 Global cumulative installed capacity: 24 Smallscale PV Utilityscale PV 2% 3% Onshore wind 7% Hydro 17% Nuclear 5% Oil 6% 6,719 GW Gas 24% Coal 3% Smallscale PV 1% Utilityscale PV 22% 12,879 GW Onshore wind 14% Coal 13% Gas 14% Nuclear 3% Hydro 12% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5 January 9, 218

7 BNEF の予測よりも実際の導入量が毎年上回る Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6 January 9, 218

8 発電量ミックス石炭は 226 年にピークを迎える TWh 4, 1% 35, 9% 8% 3, 7% 25, 6% 2, 5% 15, 4% 3% 1, 2% 5, 1% % Other Solar thermal Small-scale PV Utility-scale PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Biomass Geothermal Hydro Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Renewables share Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance New Energy Outlook January 9, 218

9 アジア太平洋地域 : 全投資額の 47% 中国とインド : アジア太平洋の 83% Global investment by region, APAC investment by region, ($ billion real) ($ billion real) APAC $4,828 China $2,823 AMER $1,454 India $1,157 META $1,454 SE Asia $431 Japan $195 RoW $1,264 South Korea $142 Europe $1,185 Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Austral ia $79 Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other Wind Solar Other Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8 January 9, 218

10 世界全体の電力需要 Global electricity demand, OECD vs non-oecd Changes in electricity demand, (1, TWh) (index, 216=1) 2 18 non-oecd OECD SE Asia Australia South Korea Japan India China Other Amer Mexico Brazil Canada US RoW SSA MENA Turkey Europe Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 January 9, 218

11 24 年再生可能エネルギー導入率ランキング 16 番目 Country All renewables Country PV and wind Italy 96% Mexico 73% Brazil 96% Iberia 63% Iberia 86% Germany 61% Chile 86% Italy 59% Mexico 82% Chile 55% Canada 79% Australia 55% Germany 74% UK 5% France 65% France 46% UK 63% Brazil 43% Australia 62% India 41% China 55% China 39% India 49% Thailand 39% Thailand 49% SSA 34% Turkey 48% South Korea 32% Philippines 47% United States 31% Japan 42% Japan 3% United States 38% Philippines 3% Malaysia 37% Turkey 28% South Korea 34% MENA 27% Indonesia 31% Canada 24% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1 January 9, 218

12 技術革新とコスト低減 太陽光 風力 蓄電池平準化発電コスト比較 11 January 9, 218

13 太陽光発電技術は安くなり そのスピードも増す 216 ($/W) (estimate) , 1, 1, 1,, Cumulative capacity historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-si module prices (BNEF) Experience curve at 28% Source: Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12 January 9, 218

14 風力タービン価格 ( 引渡し日 ) million Euro/MW Global (ex. China) Germany (ExTool) Denmark (Extool) US (LBL) China (BNEF) Vestas global Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Data by contract signing date 13 January 9, 218

15 設備利用率上昇に伴い 陸上風力発電コストが安価に Onshore wind capacity factor Capacity factor forecast for the U.S 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 299MW 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% % Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Note: Averages are capacityweighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P9 value in the capacity factor tool. 1% % Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Notes: Line shows central case, error bars reflect the range between low speed and high speed sites 14 January 9, 218

16 洋上風力入札結果 Levelized bids (216 $/MWh) Northwind Thornton Bank (I-III) Nobelwind Gemini Rentel Anholt Belgium Denmark Netherlands Early CfD -- Dudgeon, Burbo, Walney Early CfD -- Beatrice, Hornsea 1 CfD R1 -- East Anglia 1 U.K. Norther Mermaid Seastar Northwester II Borssele I & II Horns Rev III Borssele III & IV Near-shore Krieger's Flak CfD R1 -- Neart Na Gaoithe CfD R2 -- Triton Knoll CfD R2 -- Hornsea 2, Moray Firth Germany Gode Wind 3 He Dreiht OWP West BRW II Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Notes: Figures refer to an estimated project LCOE, taking into account tariff, inflation, merchant tail assumption and a 23-year project lifetime. Horizontal axis refers to commissioning year. 15 January 9, 218

17 電気自動車導入予測 24 Annual global light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet million vehicles % 8 43% 6 24% 4 2 8% 3% ICE sales EV sales million cars on road 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 33% 6 19% 4 7% 2 1% 2% ICE fleet EV fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO January 9, 218

18 Comparison IEA WEOとの比較 Capacity by 24 Installed capacity by technology, absolute Installed capacity by technology, shares GW 16, % 1% 14, 12, 1, 9% 8% 7% 6% 8, 5% 6, 4, 2, 4% 3% 2% 1% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA; Note: solar includes PV & solar thermal; wind includes onshore and offshore wind. 17 January 9, 218 NEO 217 IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA SDS Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Other renewables Other Flexible capacity % NEO 217 IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA SDS Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA.

19 Comparison IEAとの比較化石燃料火力と再生可能エネルギー設備容量 Fossil fuel cumulative capacity Renewables (excl. hydro) cumulative capacity GW GW 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, NEO 217 NEO 216 IEA Current Policies IEA New Policies IEA SDS Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA. 18 January 9, 218

20 Comparison IEA との比較風力発電設備容量 ( 累積導入量と新設 ) Cumulative installed capacity Net capacity additions per year GW 2,5 GW , 1 1,5 8 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA; Note: WEO 22, 26 & 28 is Reference scenario; WEO is New Policies scenario; wind includes onshore and offshore wind. 19 January 9, NEO 217 NEO 216 WEO 217 WEO 216 WEO 215 WEO 21 WEO 28 WEO 26 WEO 26 Actual

21 Comparison IEAとの比較太陽光設備容量 ( 累積と新設 ) Cumulative installed capacity Net capacity additions per year GW 5, GW 35 4,5 3 4, 3,5 25 3, 2 2,5 2, 15 1,5 1 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA; Note: WEO 22, 26 & 28 is Reference scenario; WEO is New Policies scenario; solar includes utility-scale, small-scale PV and solar thermal. 2 January 9, NEO 217 NEO 216 WEO 217 WEO 216 WEO 215 WEO 21 WEO 28 WEO 26 WEO 26 Actual

22 IEA との比較電気自動車導入数 Global electric vehicle fleet light-duty vehicles million cars Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA; Note: IEA figures interpolated based on growth rates and stock in certain years cited in the report. 21 January 9, 218 NEO 217 NEO 216 WEO 217 WEO 216

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