Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results! ! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!

Transcription

1 Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results!! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!! Alex Körner, François Cuenot!! International Energy Agency (IEA)! Transforming Transportation 2013!

2 Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results Alex Körner, François Cuenot Transforming Transportation, 18th January 2013

3 Content n Introduction n Methodology n FE/CO 2 Results by country n FE/CO 2 Global results n OECD deep-dive n New Fleet key technical characteristics evolution n Conclusions

4 Introduction n Update of the 2011 International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics IEA-authored GFEI working papers: l Adding 2010 and 2011 l Adding Korea and Canada to cover G19 (KSA missing) n sponsored by UNEP-raised GEF SSFs and EU commission grants. n New report to be released in March

5 Methodology n New vehicle registrations data from Polk l By brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power, but: l Vehicle segment/class missing l Empty weight is missing l CO 2 /FE missing: n Manual input based on model sales sampling l Satisfactory representativity when CO 2 /FE >75% of sales n Making number match official numbers when available

6 Vehicle Segments

7 Data sources for FE / CO 2 information n No test cycle conversion Country US China UK France Australia Japan Mexico Swiss Korea Publication name DoE / EPA Fuel Economy ratings 轻型汽车燃料消耗量通告通告日期 Car Fuel Data Booklet Consommation conventionnelles de carburant et émissions de gaz carbonique Green Vehicle Guide Factsheets 自動車燃費一覧 Indicadores de Eficiencia Energética y Emisiones Vehiculares Automobil Revue catalogue 소비자체감에부합하는새로운연비표시방법확정

8 gco 2 emissions per km for new PLDVs

9 Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs - OECD

10 progress deep dive OECD Average emissions (gco2/ km) Emission reduc9on rate Market growth France % - 2.1% Italy % % EU % - 9.6% Japan % % Turkey % 16.4% UK % - 4.4% Germany % 8.8% Chile % 22.4% South Korea % 0.6% Mexico % 17.4% Canada % 1.4% USA % 9.9% Australia % - 2.6% OECD % - 1.8%

11 Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs Non-OECD

12 FE progress tracking vs. GFEI target Annual change Annual change Annual change Required annual change Required annual change OECD average % - 2.6% - 2.5% Non- OECD average % - 0.9% - 0.3% Global average % - 1.9% - 1.9% GFEI target % - 3% n New vehicles in OECD almost achieve the GFEI annual fuel consumption reduction target n New vehicles in Non-OECD show a slight annual fuel consumption reduction over the last three years n The global reduction rate is still far off the target due to a shift in market from OECD to non-oecd n Each year lost makes the target harder to be reached

13 PLDVs by segment 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Pick- up/suv Van/LCV Small SUV/Van/LCV F E D C B A 0% OECD Non- OECD World

14 FE by vehicle size n Shift towards bigger vehicle prevented FE improvement in non-oecd

15 PLDVs by displacement 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% > <800 unknown 0% OECD Non- OECD World

16 PLDVs by power 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% > <50 unknown 10% 0% OECD Non- OECD World

17 LCV influence country dependant

18 Future updates n Engage countries/oems in providing their official registrations data for this work l Partially worked in Chile with the ICCT/CmCh baseline report l Links with Renault and the AAA (data provider for OICA) n Parametric analysis to be done by KG Duleep using FIA Foundation funding n Cross-database access sharing with all GFEI partners

19 Conclusions n Improvement rate has accelerated in OECD markets, and is almost matching the GFEI target rate l Policies (and GFEI actions) fruitful n In non-oecd, situation does not show much progress l More policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed, especially to limit vehicle size shift. n Lot of potential analysis from the database l More resources would be welcome

20 Thank You

21 Transforming Transportation 2013!! Co-organized by EMBARQ and The World Bank!! More information at:!! EMBARQ.org!! worldbank.org/transport!! Questions? Comments? Contact us at Follow us on Transforming Transportation 2013!