TRENDS OF EUROPEAN PV MARKET: INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE

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1 TRENDS OF EUROPEAN PV MARKET: INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE Pius Hüsser, Director, Nova Energie GmbH IEA PVPS Task 1 Switzerland Vice President Swiss Solar Industry Association Swissolar Board Member Edisun Power Europe AG

2 DO WE HAVE A PROBLEME? IEA PVPS Trends Report 2010: Figure 1a - Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the reporting countries Installed PV power (MW) Grid-connected Off-grid

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4 SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.

5 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET & PV SUPPLY OECD Europe: 3460 TWh supplied in 2010 PV electricity production in Europe (estimates): TWh (<1%) end of TWh (1.3%) end of 2011

6 PV PERSPECTIVES IN EUROPE PV PLANTS up to 10% of consumption within 10 to 20 years with PV Per year: 0.5% of OECD-Europe Electricity consumption => 17 TWh => 12 to 15 GW newly installed capacity => 15 to 25 Billion Euro investment needed => huge opportunities for investors

7 SIDE BUSINESS - 1 Investment in Maintenance Companies Maintenance costs = 1 to 2 Eurocents / kwh => 10 to 20 Mi0 / TWh => Market will grow by at least 150 Mio per year

8 SIDE BUSINESS - 2 Investment along the value chain Cell materials (solar grade silicon etc) Cell/Modul production Inverters, Cabling Support structures Testing/Metering/Controlling Equipment Equipment manufacturer Engineering/EPC

9 INVESTMENT IN PV PLANTS Key parameters for PV plant investment (Triple I): Irradiation Interest Rate Investment costs The cost of a kwh in Germany can be the same as in Italy due to different Interest rates and Investment / maintenance costs

10 RISKS (FOR PV PLANT INVESTORS) FiT changes to fast Retroactive reduction of FiT (Spain/Czech Republic) increasing interest rates over time non cooperative utilities (technical issues, hidden barriers) new operational requirements (52 Hertz problem / peak shaving etc.) Growth restriction due to bottle necks with transmission lines / lack of storage capacity at peak hours

11 BUT THERE ARE STILL OPPORTUNITIES Foto von Mallorca? Mallorca, Spain Nov. 30, MWp Photo: Edisun Power Europe AG, Switzerland

12 SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Counrty Attractiveness Matrix, Large Plants, Sarasin, Nov 2011 * NSW in Australia, Flandern in Belgium, Ontario in Canada, California in the USA

13 SARASIN SOLARREPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Newly installed PV capacity (MW) CAGR* Germany 3,845 7,411 5,945 5,400 4,700 4,800 4,850-8% Italy 723 5,632 2,965 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,000-12% France , ,050 1,150 10% Spain % Slovakia % Belgium % Greece % Czech Republic 411 1, % UK % Portugal % Switzerland % Turkey % Rest of Europe ,450 2,200 79% Europe 5,721 16,586 12,326 12,215 12,645 13,670 14,585-3% USA ,245 3,550 5,325 7,800 9,900 61% Canada % North America 535 1,114 2,620 4,150 6,075 8,600 10,800 58% Japan ,375 2,200 2,700 3,250 3,750 30% China ,950 2,500 3,100 3,850 4,850 58% India ,300 1,850 2, % South Korea % Rest of Asia ,050 1,400 36% Asia 983 2,002 4,360 6,275 8,185 10,375 13,090 46% Australia % South Africa % Rest of the World ,150 1,850 3,000 4,500 6,300 91% Sustainable Swiss Private Banking Total newly since installed ,499 20,336 20,961 25,120 30,655 38,075 45,925 18% Annual growth rate 26% 171% 3% 20% 22% 24% 21%

14 SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Moving Markets, Sarasin, Nov 2011 Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.

15 SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL PV LONG TERM FORCAST Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.

16 SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND SARASIN FITNESS RATING OF MAJOR COMPANIES Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.

17 THANK YOU VERY MUCH Atlantic Ocean