Innovation for Cool Earth Forum

Transcription

1 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum Driving innovation for Net-Zero Emissions Michael Liebreich October 4, 2017

2 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 1 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro $300 billion

3 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations GW GW $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 2 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro $300 billion

4 Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations Spend the same, get double 160GW GW $62bn Spend more, get more $88bn $128bn $175bn $205bn $207bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 3 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate) Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro

5 Unsubsidised clean energy world records 2017 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: United Arab Emirates Marubeni and Jinko Solar US$ 2.42 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power US$ 3.0 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Merchant Price: Germany DONG/EnBW US$ 4.9 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Masdar 4 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

6 Wind and solar experience curves Wind Solar eur/mwh $/W 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Learning Learning rate =19% = 19% Learning rate = 24-28% R² = ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, (estimate) Cumulative capacity (MW)

7 Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 300m MW 200m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 100m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW 0.5 MW 19 th C Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

8 Price impact of switch from FiT to auctions, selected countries Solar PV (unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, + 3 : tariffs : non-tariff price signals : auctions EMEA KEY Other LatAm Brazil India South Africa Onshore Wind (unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)

9 Price of renewable energy in India The cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal in this country. Piyush Goyal Minister of State for Power, Coal, New & Renewable Energy and Mines, India Image: Twitter 8 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

10 Renewable energy excl. large hydro, proportion of power generation, Canada UK 25% 5% 6% 2% Germany 29% China 3% US 9% Lowest 13% Spain 30% 12% Italy 9% 25% India 6% 10% 7% Japan 12% Mid Highest Brazil 4% 6% Australia No data Notes: Excludes large hydro; calculated as annual renewable generation over annual total generation 6% 18% South Africa 1% 3% 3% 12% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

11 Coal capacity factors, selected countries US India South Africa Australia China Indonesia Note: Based on end-of-year capacity figures; 2017 is estimated Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA, EIA, India CEA, NERSA, Australia DOWS 10 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

12 Coal has peaked Coal production Mt/yr 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Coal consumption Mt/yr 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Europe & Eurasia S & Cent. America North America Note: Adjusted to standard coal equivalent Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review 11 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

13 Make America Great Again? Image: White House; EPA 12 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

14 Solar and wind dominate the future of electricity Global cumulative installed capacity: 2016 Small-scale Utility-scale PV PV 2% 3% Onshore wind 7% Hydro 17% Nuclear 5% Oil 6% 6,719GW Gas 24% Coal 30% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017 By 2040, 66% of generating capacity will be renewable Small-scale PV 10% Utility-scale PV 22% 13 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, Global cumulative installed capacity: 2040 Flexible capacity Onshore wind 14% Coal 13% 13,919GW Gas 14% Nuclear 3% Hydro 12%

15 Solar and wind attract 60% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, Investment, by technology, ($ trillion real) Fossil fuels 14% Wind Solar $2.8 $3.3 $10.2 trillion Zerocarbon 86% Nuclear Hydro Gas $0.8 $1.1 $1.4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance Finance, NEO 2017 Coal $0.7 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 14 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

16 Annual green bond issuance by issuer type Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 15 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

17 Balancing the grid Interconnectors Heating/cooling solutions Electric vehicles Demand response Batteries Weeks to months Hours to days Seconds to minutes I. PLANNING FOR EXTREMES Demand Smart Grid and Gridchain III. CONTROLLING FREQUENCY H2 II. CONTINUOUS BALANCING Flow batteries Variable supply Power to gas Flywheels Ammonium Biomass/bio gas Biofuel Solar CSP Gravity systems Compressed air 16 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

18 BEV model availability, SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Honda Clarity BAIC EU260 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-miev Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV200 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS BYD e6 Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado Smith Edison M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q50 Renault Kangoo Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster Tesla Model S M-B SLS edrive Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO EP9 RapidE Exagon Furtive Geely Emgrand VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e ChangAn EM80 Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Mullen 700e NIO ES8* Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model X Chehejia SUV* VW I.D. LeEco LeSEE Audi R8 E-tron VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 40.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is estimate miles range per charge 17 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

19 Lithium-ion battery prices, historical and forecast $/kwh 1, BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index BNEF observed values average lithiumion battery price: $109/kWh 2030 average lithium-ion battery price: $73/kWh 19% learning rate Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 2016 U.S. dollars. 18 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

20 London, UK Photo: HHRCA 19 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

21 Global light duty vehicles million cars per year % 80 43% % 20 8% 1% 3% Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance million cars on the road 1,800 1,600 1,400 ICE 1,200 sales 1,000 EV sales % % 400 0% 1% 2% 7% ICE fleet EV fleet 20 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

22 Current orthodoxy 1 Big changes by /3 of electricity will be wind and solar 1/3 of cars and light trucks will be electric The global economy will be 1/3 more energy efficient Must go further Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica 21 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

23 Current orthodoxy 2 These will look much the same in 2040 Shipping/air/freight Industry Petrochemicals Land-use/forests Energy access Heat Huge challenge or huge opportunity? Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Tesla, Wallpaper Mania, Cleantechnica 22 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

24 Copyright and disclaimer This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 23 October 4, 2017 Innovation for Cool Earth Forum,

25 Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Thanks! Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decision-makers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.