SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES: TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS

Transcription

1 SUNFLOWER OIL PRICES: TRENDS, FORECASTS, FACTORS TO WATCH REGIONAL AND GLOBAL TRENDS Sunflower Oil Summit : Science & Industry July 11, 2017, Odessa / UKRAINE

2 AGENDA 1-THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY 2 SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS /2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS 4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

3 THE ROLE OF SUNOIL GLOBALLY

4 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT IS AROUND RECORD 560 MLN T. SUNSEED IS THE 3RD BIGGEST OILSEED FOLLOWING SOYBEAN AND RAPESEED WITH 8.8% ( RECORD 49.5 MLN T ) SHARE.

5 GLOBAL OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( MLN T ) Cottonseed 39,5 7% Sunseed 49,5 9% Rapeseed 68 12% Others 53 9% Soybean % 2016/17 Season, 560 Mln T total Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

6 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD VEGOILS OUTPUT IS AROUND RECORD MLN T. SUNOIL IS THE 4TH BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING PALMOIL, SOYOIL AND RAPEOIL WITH 9.75% ( RECORD 18.5 MLN T ) SHARE.

7 GLOBAL VEGOILS OUTPUT ( MLN T ) Sunoil 18,5 10% 2016/17 Season,190 Mln T total Palmoil 66 35% Others 25 13% RapeOil 26,5 14% Soyoil 54 28% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

8 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD VEGOILS TRADE IS AROUND RECORD 85.0 MLN T. SUNOIL IS THE 3RD BIGGEST VEGOIL FOLLOWING PALMOIL AND SOYOIL WITH 12.0% ( RECORD MLN T ) SHARE.

9 GLOBAL VEGOILS TRADE ( MLN T ) Sunoil 10,25 12% 2016/17 Season, 85 Mln T total Others 7,25 9% Palmoil 47,5 58% Soyoil 12,25 15% RapeOil 5 6% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

10 AFTER BRIEF GLOBAL OUTLOOK, LET S LOOK AT THE MAJOR PLAYER COUNTRIES IN GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE.

11 BLACK SEA BASIN IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUN COMPLEX OUTPUT AND TRADE.

12 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD KMT OF SUNOIL OUTPUT WITH 34% SHARE GLOBALLY.

13 WORLD SUNOIL OUTPUT ( 1000 TONS ) Argentina % Others % 2016/17 Season, 18.5 Mln T Total Ukraine % EU % Russia % Turkey 800 4% Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

14 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; EU-28 IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD KMT OF SUNOIL CONSUMPTION WITH 23% SHARE GLOBALLY.

15 WORLD SUNOIL CONSUMPTION ( 1000 TONS ) China % 2016/17 Season, Mln T Total Others % Russia % Turkey 975 5% EU % India % Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

16 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; UKRAINE IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD KMT OF SUNOIL EXPORT WITH 56% SHARE GLOBALLY.

17 WORLD SUNOIL EXPORT ( 1000 TONS ) Others % 2016/17 Season, Mln T Total Turkey 675 7% Argentina 700 7% Russia % Ukraine % Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

18 IN CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON; INDIA IS THE GLOBAL LEADER HAVING AROUND RECORD KMT OF SUNOIL IMPORT WITH 21% SHARE GLOBALLY.

19 WORLD SUNOIL IMPORT ( 1000 TONS ) 2016/17 Season, Mln T Total Others % India % EU % Turkey 860 8% China % Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

20 SUNOIL PRICES & REGIONAL GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

21 FOLLOWING SUNOIL ROLE AND MAJOR GLOBAL PLAYERS, NOW, LET S BE FOCUSED ON GLOBAL PRICES OF SUNOIL IN RECENT YEARS AND LET S COMPARE TO OTHER VEGOILS PRICES.

22 FIRST, LET S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB PRICES AS PER ROTTERDAM ( 6 PORTS ), ARGENTINA AND BLACK SEA SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON

23 GLOBAL SUNOIL FOB PRICES, $/MT Crude Sunoil (EU, 6 Ports, FOB Rotterdam) Crude Sunoil FOB Argentina Crude Sunoil FOB Black Sea Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

24 AS YOU SEE; 1999/2000 SEASON IS THE BOTTOM WITH 352 AND 413 $/MT FOR ARGENTINA AND ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY. IN OCT 2000, ARGENTINIAN AND ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 294 AND 340 $/MT RESPECTIVELY.

25 AS YOU SEE ALSO; 2007/2008 SEASON IS THE PEAK WITH 1.499, AND $/MT FOR BLACK SEA, ARGENTINA AND ROTTERDAM RESPECTIVELY. IN JUNE 2008, BLACK SEA, ARGENTINIAN AND ROTTERDAM FOB PRICES WERE EVEN 1.774, AND $/MT RESPECTIVELY.

26 SECOND, LET S LOOK AT CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES SINCE 2000/2001 SEASON WHEN UKRAINE STARTED TO BE ONE OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL EXPORTERS.

27 CRUDE SUNOIL FOB BLACK SEA PRICES, $/MT Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

28 AS YOU SEE; 2000/2001 SEASON WAS THE BOTTOM WITH 382 $/MT. IN OCT 2000, 299 $/MT OF THE LOWEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN. IN JUNE 2008, $/MT OF THE HIGHEST MONTHLY LEVEL WAS SEEN. HOWEVER, WE EVEN EXPERIENCED AROUND $/MT BY MID-JUNE 2008.

29 NOW, LET S LOOK AT ROTTERDAM SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES SINCE 1988/1989 SEASON

30 SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOILS PRICES, $/MT Soyoil FOB Argentina Sunoil FOB Rotterdam RapeOil FOB Dutch RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD

31 EXCEPT SOME EXTREME SEASONS ( INCLUDING CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON WITH RECORD GLOBAL CROP SIZE ), ROTTERDAM SUNOIL WAS ALMOST THE MOST HIGHLY-PRICED VEGOIL.

32 SUNOIL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS

33 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 1- USD/UAH & USD/RU PARITIES UKRAINIAN GRIVNA & RUSSIAN RUBLE CURRENCY RATES ARE QUITE CRUCIAL FOR SUNOIL EXPORTS.

34 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 2- FARMER SALES SALES INTEREST OF UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN FARMERS ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR CRUSHABLE SUNSEED SUPPLIES AND CRUSHING MARGINS.

35 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 3- EXPORT DUTIES UKRAINE HAS 10% AND RUSSIA HAS 6.5% EXPORT DUTIES FOR SUNSEED BY AIMING TO PROVIDE MORE CRUSHABLE LOCAL SUNSEED SUPPLIES.

36 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 4- TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES TURKISH IMPORT DUTIES OF SUNSEED AND SUNOIL ARE DETERMINING THE ACTUAL IMPORT SIZES.

37 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 5- TURKISH RE-EXPORTS UNDER INWARD PROCESSING REGIME, TURKEY IMPORTS DUTY- FREE CRUDE SUNOIL FROM BLACK SEA AND RE-EXPORTS IT AS REFINED MAINLY TO IRAQ AND SYRIA BY UTILIZING ITS LOGISTICS AND CULTURAL ADVANTAGES.

38 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 6- REGIONAL TRADE AND POLITICAL CONFLICTS PLEASE REMEMBER TURKISH SUNOIL IMPORT BAN FOR RUSSIAN SUNOIL IN BETWEEN MID-MARCH AND MID-MAY 2017.

39 REGIONAL PRICE FACTORS; 7- NEW REFINERY IN IRAQ A NEW REFINERY FACTORY WAS JUST ESTABLISHED IN BABEL/IRAQ WITH DAILY CAPACITY OF TONS. THIS MAY REDUCE TURKISH REFINED SUNOIL RE-EXPORTS TO IRAQ AND INCREASE CRUDE SUNOIL IMPORTS FROM RUSSIA MAINLY VIA UMM QASR PORT IN PERSIAN GULF.

40 GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 1- SUNOIL/OTHER VEGOILS PREMIUM SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM VERSUS OTHER VEGOILS IS SO IMPORTANT FOR PRICE ELASTIC DESTINATIONS SUCH NORTHERN AFRICA AND IRAN FOREMOST.

41 GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 2- PETROL PRICES ALBEIT SUNOIL IS NOT BIODIESEL RAW MATERIAL SO MUCH, IT S ALSO INFLUENCED FROM OTHER VEGOILS.

42 GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 3- WEATHER CONDITIONS EL-NINO, LA-NINA AND OTHER LOCAL WEATHER PHENOMENA ARE QUITE CRUCIAL FOR ACTUAL CROP SIZES OF GLOBAL OILSEEDS TO BE CRUSHED FOR VEGOILS OUTPUT.

43 GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 4- POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND TRADE RULES POLITICAL AND GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR SUNOIL EXPORTERS/IMPORTERS AS WELL AS FOREIGN TRADE LEGISLATION ARE NONE-NEGLIGIBLE.

44 GLOBAL PRICE FACTORS; 5- CURRENCIES EUR/USD AND OTHER CURRENCIES ARE ALSO THE MAJOR DETERMINANTS IN SUNOIL AND OTHER VEGOIL PRICES.

45 2017/18 SEASON PROSPECTS

46 BLACK SEA SUNFLOWER PLANTINGS BY SPRING 2017 WERE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016 ONES. IN THIS CONNECTION, UNDER NORMAL SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS, DISLIKE UNFAVOURABLE ONES IN ESP. BALKANS BY SUMMER 2015 AND 2016, STILL PROMISING NEW-CROP SIZES ARE LIKELY. BESIDES, AS PER EARLIER PLANTINGS, EARLIER HARVESTINGS ( STARTING BY MID EVEN 5-10 AUG 2017 ) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

47 NOW, LET S LOOK AT OUR LATEST 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED ACREAGES NEW-CROP SIZE FORECASTS BY MAJOR PRODUCERS.

48 2017/2018 SEASON GLOBAL SUNSEED PROSPECTS Acreage, kha* Yield ( Kg/daa ) Crop Size ( kmt ) COUNTRY 2017/18 F 2016/ /18 F 2016/ /18 F 2016/17 No Ukraine Russia Argentina China Hungary Romania Bulgaria Turkey** France USA Moldova South Afr. Rep Kazakhistan Spain Serbia Others Total * Planted Acreages Narrow-Range ** kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.

49 SUMMING UP, REGIONALLY ; Ukraine, Mln T ( 16/17, record 15.0 ), Russia, Mln T ( 16/17, record 11.5 ), Romania, Mln T ( 15/16, 1.9 ), Bulgaria, Mln T ( 15/16, 1.8 ), Turkey, Mln T ( 15/16, 1.35 ), Moldova, Mln T ( 15/16, 0.85 )..

50 UNDER NORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS; 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED GLOBAL NEW-CROP IS LIKELY AS MLN T. VS RECORD 49.5 MLN T. OF 2016/17.

51 IF SO, GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT & TRADE MAY BE AROUND MLN T. LESS THAN RECORD 2016/17 SEASON

52 ACCORDINGLY, CURRENT EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS PRICE PREMIUM OF SUNOIL VS SOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SIMILAR TO EARLIER SEASONS EXCEPT CURRENT 2016/17 SEASON.

53 ASIDE FROM SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS ( IN BLACK SEA ESP. ) FOR SUNSEED, WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS!!!

54 PRESENTATION SUMMARY

55 SUNOIL IS AMIDS THE MOST PRODUCED AND TRADED AGROCOMMODITIES OF THE WORLD. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN BOTH GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE. SUNOIL IS THE MOST HIGH-PRICED VEGOIL EXCEPT EXTREME SEASONS SUCH CURRENT 2016/17 ONE. BLACK SEA, THE HEART OF SUN COMPLEX, WHEREAS SUNFLOWER NEW- CROP ACREAGES ARE MORE OR LESS THE SAME OF RECORD SPRING 2016, BUT EXTRA-ORDINARY YIELDS MAY NOT BE REPEATED IN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA FOREMOST. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NEW-CROP POTENTIALS, 2017/18 NEW-SEASON GLOBAL SUNOIL OUTPUT AND TRADE MAY BE MLN T LESS THAN CURRENT 2016/17SEASON. IF SO, CURRENT SUNOIL PRICE PREMIUM ( EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY MINUS ) VS SOYOIL MAY BE EQUAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NEXT 2017/18 SEASON. NEVERTHELESS, ARE WEATHER PHENOMENA SUCH EL NINO ETC, SUMMER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN US SOY AREAS, SOUTH AMERICAN SOY/SUNSEED NEW-CROP ACREAGES, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMICAL/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS STILL.

56 Great thanks for your kind attention велике спасибі Большое спасибо

57 THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 19-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 ) VEYSEL KAYA veyselkaya@sunseedman.com SKYPE : SUNSEEDMAN GSM : Facebook: Linkedin: Twitter: