Luxury Homes. Wake, Durham, Orange, Chatham Counties September January-September Data. Luxury Home Market; Third Quarter 2010 Summary

Transcription

1 Luxury Homes Wake, Durham, Orange, Chatham Counties September 2010 January-September Data Luxury Home Market; Third Quarter 2010 Summary The information contained in this report presents data and analysis of the luxury home market segment within the Triangle. This market is defined as having residential housing priced at $500,000 and above. The data was obtained from TMLS, the Durham, Orange, Chatham and Wake County Revenue Departments, and my databases. The following are answers to the most frequently asked questions. What is going on with inventory? Overall luxury inventory decreased by 20% compared to 3Q/09. The amount of new home luxury listings decreased by 47% and the amount of re-sale luxury homes decreased by 5%. The number of luxury listings entered into the system during 3Q/10 was 1% less than the total entered during 3Q/09. The number of expired listings increased 6% and the number of withdrawn listings decreased by 12%. The number of expired and withdrawn listings accounted for 42% of active listings. The average days on market for the listings decreased to 189 from 193. The number of sellers who dropped price from original list decreased to 918, or 57% of luxury inventory. At the end of 3Q/09, 54% of luxury listings had a price drop. The current average price cut for the active listings is 12%, up from 10% at the end of 3Q/09. Is there a relationship between the number of showings and contract pending sales? Third quarter luxury home showings totaled 15,327, a 10% decrease compared to 3Q/09 and a 25% decrease from second quarter showings. Contract pending sales during the quarter increased 9% compared to 3Q/09. Third quarter contract pending sales represented 18% of current inventory, up from the 13% seen in 3Q/09 pending sales. The luxury market was positively impacted by the home buyer tax incentives, which freed up buyers from lower price points. What happened with luxury home closings during the quarter? Third quarter closings were up 8% compared to 3Q/09 closings, the second straight quarter with higher closings compared to the prior years quarter. There were 21 closings sold at 1 million and above, the same amount as seen during 3Q/09. The current supply of luxury homes based on third quarter closings is 15 months, down from the 20 month supply at the end of 3Q/09. How long are luxury houses taking to sell? The average days on market for all luxury houses was 145, up from 144 at the end of 3Q/09. What type of discount are luxury sellers accepting? The average luxury seller accepted a price that was 5% below final list price. The average discount at the end of 3Q/09 was 5%. As mentioned above, the luxury segment was the main beneficiary of the home buyer tax incentives which expired at the end of April. Residential real estate is a food chain and the luxury segment depends on upward movement. The 8% growth in closings, 9% growth in pending sales and the decline in the current supply to 15 months were the best indicators for this segment. The reduction in new home inventory, combined with the lack of new home replacement should help supply numbers for the rest of this year. The main trouble spot is the found in the re-sale market. There is a 19 month supply of housing within this segment, in spite of the 7% inventory reduction. Initial list price in the luxury segment is as important as with other segments. Third quarter closings where the original list price was equal to the final list price sold in an average of 78 days for 98% of list. Closings where the final list price was less than the original list price sold in an average of 184 days at 83% of original list price.

2 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 2 Closed sale indicators 3Q Closings Total New Home ReSale Closings at 1ml and up S.M.A. Publications, Inc. does not and cannot warrant and/or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or in any of its publications. Accordingly, S.M.A. Publications, Inc. hereby disclaims any express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and/or fitness for a particular purpose, and hereby notifies all readers and users that any reliance upon the data, information, analysis or opinions contained in any of our publications shall be at the reader s own risk. Any reference to TMLS data is based on information from Triangle MLS, which neither guarantees nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. All data is provided AS IS and with all faults. Data maintained by Triangle MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Realtor is a registered trademark of the National Association of Realtors. The information contained in this publication is the copyrighted property of S.M.A. Publications, Inc. and may not be reproduced without the permission of the editor. T.A.R.R. Report Triangle Area Residential Realty Editor Stacey P. Anfindsen Phone # stacey@staceypeter.com Web-site Publisher S.M.A. Publications, Inc. 720 Old Kestrel Drive Apex, NC 27523

3 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 3 Showing indicators SD 3Q Showings Avg LP Avg DOM Show List Preston 484 $814, Wakefield 367 $1,075, Governors Club 276 $769, Brier Creek 197 $701, Anderson Heights 191 $837, Budleigh 187 $1,222, Preserve/Jordan Lake 176 $637, Highcroft 141 $551, The Oaks 136 $1,005, Historic District 133 $827, Hayes Barton 131 $1,330, Southern Village 117 $594, Ethans Glen 111 $633, Cary Park 97 $651, Brier Creek Country Club 90 $725, MacGregor West 88 $705, The Oaks at Fallon Park 88 $690, The Registry 85 $1,267, Chesley 82 $781, Carlyle 81 $735, North Ridge 80 $798, Meadowmont 78 $890, Lochmere 75 $678, Brookhaven 74 $604, Rose Hall 74 $1,138, Hasentree 72 $923, MacGregor Downs 72 $863, Colvard Farms 70 $804, Five Points 69 $657, Weycroft 66 $606, Group Summary $803, Q Showings by TMLS Area Quarterly Showings Q/09 4Q/09 1Q/10 2Q/10 3Q/10

4 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 4 Inventory indicators Luxury Listings Total Luxury Listings New Home ReSale Houses listed during Qtr %Expired/WD of listings 36% 36% 42% 29% 28%

5 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 5 Inventory indicators 3Q DOM Active Listings % of Inventory w/price Drop 46% 54% 57% 25% 31% 3Q Discount from OLP 10% 12% 6% 6% 7%

6 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 6 Pending, closed sale indicators Q Contract Pendings House selling odds 29% 22% 15% 13% 18% 3Q Months of Supply

7 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 7 Total market listing and closed sale statistics CAM(z5/10/15) Area Total % Chapel Hill/Carrboro Area Total % Falls Lake(z7) Area Total % ITB(z1/4) Area Total % Chatham Area Total % FV/H'Springs(z9/16/17) Area Total % N.Raleigh(Z2) Area Total % Wake Forest(z14/21) Area Total % Durham Area Total % Group Summary % New home market listing and closed sale statistics New Homes Class 3Q/09List 3Q/10List %Change YTDClsd PerMonth Supply DaysMarket CAM(z5/10/15) Area Total % Falls Lake(z7) Area Total % Chatham Area Total % Chapel Hill/Carrboro Area Total % FV/H'Springs(z9/16/17) Area Total % ITB(z1/4) Area Total % N.Raleigh(Z2) Area Total % Wake Forest(z14/21) Area Total % Durham Area Total % Group Summary % Resale market listing and closed sale statistics ReSale Housing Class 3Q/09List 3Q/10List %Change YTDClsd PerMonth Supply DaysMarket CAM(z5/10/15) Area Total % Chapel Hill/Carrboro Area Total % Falls Lake(z7) Area Total % ITB(z1/4) Area Total % Durham Area Total % FV/H'Springs(z9/16/17) Area Total % Chatham Area Total % Wake Forest(z14/21) Area Total % N.Raleigh(Z2) Area Total % Group Summary %

8 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 8 Total market listing and closed sale statistics CAM(z5/10/15) % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo 0 1 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse % Area Total % FV/H'Springs(z9/16/17) % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Area Total % ITB(z1/4) % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo % Townhouse % Area Total % N.Raleigh(Z2) % % % % % ml-2ml % 0 0 n/a 0 2ml+ 1 1 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Condo % 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse % Area Total % Falls Lake(z7) % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse 0 1 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Area Total %

9 T.A.R.R. Report(Triangle Area Residential Realty) Page 9 Total market listing and closed sale statistics Wake Forest(z14/21) % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % Condo 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse % 0 0 n/a 0 Area Total % Chatham % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo 0 0 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse 1 1 n/a 0 0 n/a 0 Area Total % Durham % % % % % ml-2ml % 0 0 n/a 0 2ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo 2 2 0% 0 0 n/a 0 Townhouse % 0 0 n/a 0 Area Total % Chapel Hill/Carrboro % % % % % ml-2ml % ml % 0 0 n/a 0 Condo % Townhouse % Area Total %