Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Guelph CMAs

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1 H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n Housing Now Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Guelph CMAs C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n Date Released: Kitchener-Cambridge-Guelph CMA Highlights Starts higher for all housing types except townhouses Existing home sales higher The average resale price down from second quarter Table of Contents Fourth Quarter Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo Highlights 2 Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo New Home Market 3 Kitchener-Cambridge- Waterloo Resale Market 4 Guelph Highlights 4 Guelph New Home Market Figure 1 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Housing Starts 5 Guelph Resale Market 6 How Does Migration Support Housing Demand? Sept 2012 Sept 2013 Sept 2014 Housing Starts, SAAR* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) * SAAR 1 : Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Housing Starts Trend Line (6-month moving average)** 1 All starts figures in this report, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. The trend is the six month moving average of the monthly SAAR for housing starts. 10,826 4,925 7 Maps 13 Tables Subscribe Now! Access CMHC s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at View, print, download or subscribe to get market information ed to you on the day it is released. CMHC s electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free. Housing market intelligence you can count on

2 New Home Market Housing starts in the Kitchener- Cambridge-Waterloo Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) (hereafter referred to as KCW) were trending up at 4,925 units in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. The trend increased due to the strong level of apartment starts, as well as higher single-detached and semidetached starts. Apartment starts were very strong again this quarter as footings were laid for several apartment projects, both rental and condominium. The strength for apartments reflects rising student enrolment and the strong commitment for higher density housing from local governments. Apartment starts are highly volatile, but for a second straight quarter, more than 800 apartment units were started in KCW. A surge in apartment starts in September pushed the third quarter apartment starts to 896 units and total starts to 1,324 units. The starts total in the third quarter was the highest for any quarter since For the first three quarters of 2014, housing starts have already surpassed last year s annual total and the yearto-date total is already higher than any annual total since Apartment starts are already the highest for any year since Currently, there are 4,026 units under construction in the CMA. Construction cranes are everywhere and labour is being stretched across the many projects. Close to three quarters of the apartment starts in the third quarter were condominiums. These projects were spread throughout Cambridge, Kitchener and Waterloo. Two of the projects have close to 200 units, while several are low-rise apartment projects with multiple smaller buildings. Condominium apartments in fourplexes and eightplexes are a popular housing alternative situated between a high-rise apartment and a townhouse. Most of the condominium apartment projects are geared to endusers, however, one project is selling as an investment property geared to students. The condominium apartment lifestyle is particularly attractive to downsizing seniors and young adult households, including those working in the tech sector. Although the rental apartment buildings started were in both Kitchener and Waterloo, most of the units were geared to student rental. The growing enrolments at the two universities and Conestoga College have led to the growth in privately-initiated rental buildings geared to students. Single-detached starts this year have increased by more than 20 per cent. A tighter resale market has meant more spill-over into the new home market. Figure 2 Actual Starts Although higher, single-detached starts remain well below levels of a decade ago. Builders/developers have responded to the strong demand for more moderately priced single-detached homes. The average price of a single-detached home, at $454,803 in the third quarter, was five per cent lower than in the same quarter last year. Prices were lower in both Kitchener and Cambridge, and virtually unchanged in Waterloo. Although detached starts have increased this year, the number of units unsold at completion (inventory) has also been moving higher and may negatively impact starts in the next few months. Townhouse and semi-detached starts are also higher this year. For households desiring a new singledetached home, but finding the carrying costs too high, townhouses and semi-detached homes continue to be a more affordable option. Townhouse starts have increased by more than 50 per cent so far this year. Highest Starts for Any Quarter Since Apartments Row Semi-detached Single Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 2

3 Resale Market The strong sales in the third quarter through the Kitchener-Waterloo Association of Realtors followed a slower than usual spring market. The traditional spring market was pushed into the summer months because of the brutal winter weather experienced. In addition, mortgage rates declined 40 basis points between January and April 2014 which encouraged more households to look for a home. After adjusting for seasonal variation, sales in the third quarter were 7.1 per cent higher than in the second quarter, and one of the highest quarters in several years. Low mortgage rates, higher employment and migration supported the demand for homes. Sales in the third quarter of 2014 were 10.5 per cent higher than in the third quarter last year. Despite a slow start to the year, sales for the first three quarters of 2014 are just under one per cent higher than the same period in Since April, employment in KCW has been trending higher. Employment has been more supportive of the housing markets. At the end of the third quarter, employment was marginally higher than at the same Figure 3 MLS Sales* 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, time last year. While employment in the goods-producing sector has increased, employment in the services sector is lower than at the same last year. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors was higher, while fewer jobs in the education, health, and trade sectors pulled the services sector employment lower. While employment increased in the age group, employment in the and age groups declined. Repeat buyer demand was supported by the current labour market. KW Sales Increase in Third Quarter Sales Avg. Price Source: CMHC, adapted from CREA (MLS ). Quarterly sales data are seasonally adjusted and multiplied by 4 to show an annual rate. Price data are adjusted for seasonal factors. MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 Avg. MLS Price ($000) The average price of a resale home in the third quarter grew by 4.9 per cent compared to a year earlier. Prices in the third quarter were three per cent lower than in the second quarter. The composition of homes sold was the primary reason for this decline. Compared to the second quarter, fewer homes were sold in the higher price ranges. 3

4 Guelph CMA Highlights Apartment starts push total starts higher Existing home sales higher The average resale price up from the second quarter New Home Market Housing starts in the Guelph CMA were trending at 1,768 units in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts. The trend moved up due to the high level of apartment starts in July and August. Starts of all dwelling types were higher in the third quarter compared to the second quarter after adjusting for regular seasonal variation. The Guelph resale market is tight, favouring sellers. This typically leads to stronger demand for new homes. Although starts for all types are higher, the story in Guelph, as it was in KCW, is apartment starts. Apartment construction tends to be highly volatile in Guelph and the high level in the third quarter is unsustainable over a longer period. Apartment starts reached 612 units in the third quarter, the highest level for any quarter back more than 40 years. Several large apartment projects along with several smaller projects started in the third quarter. Most of the projects were condominium, but the largest building in the term of units was a privately-initiated rental building. Apartment starts have increased due to the City of Guelph s commitment to intensification and demographic Figure Sept 2012 Sept 2013 Sept 2014 Housing Starts, SAAR* Housing Starts Trend Line (6-month moving average)** Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) * SAAR 1 : Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. demand. Demand for apartments has been supported by students, young adult households, immigrants and downsizing seniors. Guelph CMA Housing Starts 1 All starts figures in this report, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. The trend is the six month moving average of the monthly SAAR for housing starts. Figure 5 Actual Starts 1, Starts for single-detached homes were slightly higher in the third quarter when compared to the same quarter last year. Semi-detached starts were unchanged, while townhouse starts Higher Apartment Starts in Third Quarter 800 Apartments 700 Row 600 Semi-detached 500 Single Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 4

5 were higher. A tight resale market has resulted in some spill-over demand to the new home market. However, starts of ground-oriented housing remains constrained by the low number of residential units registered in the City of Guelph in For the first nine months of 2014, singledetached starts are slightly higher, due to more starts in the s. Semi-detached and townhouse starts are lower. The average price of newly completed single-detached homes increased to $551,719 in the third quarter, up 22 per cent from the same quarter last year. Although prices in the City of Guelph grew by nine per cent, the much higher prices in the townships pushed the third quarter average price higher. For the first nine months of 2014, single-detached prices have increased by 15.6 per cent. With single-detached homes priced out of reach of many younger households, demand for condominium apartments, which are more modestly priced, has increased. Resale Market Homes sold through the Guelph and District Association of Realtors in the third quarter after adjusting for seasonal variation increased by one per cent from the second quarter. Figure 6 MLS Sales* 4,000 3,000 2,000 Guelph Sales and Prices Increase in Third Quarter Sales have trended higher throughout the year. Third quarter sales were 4.7 per cent higher than in the same quarter last year and were at the highest level for any third quarter. Since April, employment in Guelph has been trending higher. Employment has been very supportive of the housing markets. At the end of the third quarter, employment was 11 per cent higher than at the same time last year. Employment was higher for all age groups and for both full-time and part-time jobs. Employment in both the goods-producing and the services sector employment was higher. As Sales Avg. Price 1, Source: CMHC, adapted from CREA (MLS ). Quarterly sales data are seasonally adjusted and multiplied by 4 to show an annual rate. Price data are adjusted for seasonal factors. MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association. $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 Avg. MLS Price ($000) employment is a leading indicator of housing demand, the increased employment will support the housing markets through to the end of the year. Sales have increased faster than new listings in the past year. The Guelph resale market remained tight and continued to favour sellers. Guelph has one of the tightest resale markets in Ontario. The average price of a resale home in the third quarter was 7.7 per cent higher than it was at the same time last year. 5

6 How Does Migration Support Housing Demand? Migration supports population growth and housing demand in both the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo (KCW) and Guelph CMAs. Over the last five years, KCW net migration represented close to 60 per cent of total population growth and this percentage jumped to over 70 per cent for Guelph. In KCW, migration raises population growth in the under 45 age groups. Close to 98 per cent of the migrants are under the age of 45, with about half, in the age group. Migrants in the age group support rental demand, while migrants in the age group support first-time buyer demand. Without migration, population growth in the younger age groups would be slower and rental and first-time homebuyer demand would be lower. Although few migrants are over 45, the older age groups are the fastest growing segments of the population. Demand for seniors housing and the more expensive homes usually bought by repeat buyers is mainly coming from local residents. In the Guelph CMA, as in KCW, migration is strongest in the 25- Figure 7 Net Migration, Source: Statistics Canada 44 age group. However, unlike, KCW, there is a higher percentage of migrants in the and the 65 and older age groups. Migrants moving to Guelph support all types of housing demand. Migrants in the age group support rental demand, while migrants in the age group support first-time home buying. Migrants in the age group support repeat buyer demand, while migrants who are 65 and older age group support demand for retirement-type accommodation living. Migration Supports Housing Demand KCW Guelph 6

7 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Multiples) N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend No starts starts starts starts Km 7

8 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Singles) N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend 7-73 starts starts starts Km 8

9 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Total Number of Starts N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts starts starts Km 9

10 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Multiples) January - September 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend No starts starts starts 791-1,183 starts Km 10

11 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Number of Starts (Singles) January - September 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts starts starts Km 11

12 HIGHWAY 24 Housing Now - Kitchener and Guelph CMAs - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2014 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo & Guelph CMAs Total Number of Starts January - September 2014 N HIGHWAY 6 Guelph/Eramosa QUEEN ST Woolwich Woolwich Guelph City YORK RD VICTORIA ST N HANLON PKY Waterloo City HIGHWAY 401 Puslinch HIGHWAY 6 HIGHWAY 7 & 8 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries HIGHWAY 8 Legend starts 546-1,069 starts 1,070-1,593 starts Km 12

13 HOUSING NOW REPORT TABLES Available in ALL reports: 1 Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) 1.1 Housing Activity Summary of CMA 2 Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 2.1 Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 3 Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Current Month or Quarter 3.1 Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Year-to-Date 4 Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range 5 MLS Residential Activity 6 Economic Indicators Available in SELECTED Reports: 1.3 History of Housing Activity (once a year) 2.2 Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.3 Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 2.4 Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 2.5 Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.2 Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.3 Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 3.4 Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Current Month or Quarter 3.5 Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Year-to-Date 4.1 Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-Detached Units SYMBOLS n/a Not applicable * Totals may not add up due to co-operatives and unknown market types ** Percent change > 200% - Nil -- Amount too small to be expressed SA Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation 13

14 Table 1: Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) Kitchener CMA 1 Annual Monthly SAAR Trend July 2014 Aug Sept July 2014 Aug Sept Single-Detached ,052 1,292 1, Multiples 2,029 1,150 2, ,708 2,892 2,530 3,990 Total 2,900 1,840 3,104 1,568 10,826 3,592 3,383 4,925 Quarterly SAAR Actual YTD 2014 Q Q Q Q3 % change 2013 Q Q3 % change Single-Detached 775 1, % % Multiples 1,096 4, , % 933 2, % Total 1,871 5, , % 1,469 3, % Table 1: Housing Starts (SAAR and Trend) Guelph CMA 1 Annual Monthly SAAR Trend July 2014 Aug Sept July 2014 Aug Sept Single-Detached Multiples ,212 3, ,536 1,544 Total ,493 4, ,106 1,750 1,768 Quarterly SAAR Actual YTD 2014 Q Q Q Q3 % change 2013 Q Q3 % change Single-Detached % % Multiples 448 2, % % Total 651 2, % % Source: CMHC 1 Census Metropolitan Area 2 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) Detailed data available upon request Detailed data available upon request 14

15 Table 1.1a: Housing Activity Summary of Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Ownership Rental Freehold Condominium Single Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q ,324 Q % Change n/a n/a Year-to-date ,007 3,028 Year-to-date ,469 % Change ** UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q , ,984 4,026 Q ,364 2,608 % Change COMPLETIONS Q Q % Change n/a Year-to-date ,484 Year-to-date ,557 % Change n/a COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 194 Q n/a n/a 161 % Change n/a n/a n/a 20.5 ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 492 Q n/a n/a 419 % Change n/a n/a n/a 17.4 Year-to-date n/a n/a 1,145 Year-to-date n/a n/a 916 % Change n/a n/a n/a 25.0 Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 15

16 Table 1.1b: Housing Activity Summary of Guelph CMA Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Q Q % Change n/a n/a n/a Year-to-date Year-to-date % Change ** ** 32.0 UNDER CONSTRUCTION Q ,276 Q % Change n/a ** 37.2 COMPLETIONS Q Q % Change n/a Year-to-date Year-to-date % Change COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 34 Q n/a n/a 26 % Change n/a n/a n/a n/a 30.8 ABSORBED Q n/a n/a 310 Q n/a n/a 204 % Change n/a n/a 52.0 Year-to-date n/a n/a 533 Year-to-date n/a n/a 488 % Change n/a n/a 9.2 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 16

17 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row STARTS Kitchener City Q Q Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q Q Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q ,324 Q Guelph City Q Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 17

18 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row UNDER CONSTRUCTION Kitchener City Q ,772 Q ,061 Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q ,643 Q ,249 Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q , ,984 4,026 Q ,364 2,608 Guelph City Q ,228 Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q ,276 Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 18

19 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row COMPLETIONS Kitchener City Q Q Cambridge City Q Q North Dumfries Q Q Waterloo City Q Q Woolwich Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q Q Guelph City Q Q Guelph/Eramosa Q Q Puslinch Q Q Guelph CMA Q Q Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 19

20 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row COMPLETED & NOT ABSORBED Kitchener City Q n/a n/a 105 Q n/a n/a 93 Cambridge City Q n/a n/a 24 Q n/a n/a 13 North Dumfries Q n/a n/a 3 Q n/a n/a 2 Waterloo City Q n/a n/a 61 Q n/a n/a 48 Woolwich Q n/a n/a 1 Q n/a n/a 5 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q n/a n/a 194 Q n/a n/a 161 Guelph City Q n/a n/a 29 Q n/a n/a 21 Guelph/Eramosa Q n/a n/a 4 Q n/a n/a 5 Puslinch Q n/a n/a 1 Q n/a n/a 0 Guelph CMA Q n/a n/a 34 Q n/a n/a 26 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 20

21 Table 1.2: Housing Activity Summary by Submarket Ownership Single Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row ABSORBED Kitchener City Q n/a n/a 159 Q n/a n/a 184 Cambridge City Q n/a n/a 112 Q n/a n/a 62 North Dumfries Q n/a n/a 9 Q n/a n/a 20 Waterloo City Q n/a n/a 206 Q n/a n/a 127 Woolwich Q n/a n/a 6 Q n/a n/a 26 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q n/a n/a 492 Q n/a n/a 419 Guelph City Q n/a n/a 295 Q n/a n/a 191 Guelph/Eramosa Q n/a n/a 10 Q n/a n/a 1 Puslinch Q n/a n/a 5 Q n/a n/a 12 Guelph CMA Q n/a n/a 310 Q n/a n/a 204 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey, Market Absorption Survey) 21

22 Single Table 1.3a: History of Housing Starts Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Ownership Freehold Semi Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row ,840 % Change n/a ,900 % Change n/a , ,954 % Change , ,815 % Change n/a , ,298 % Change ** , ,634 % Change n/a ** , ,740 % Change n/a ** n/a , ,599 % Change n/a , ,763 % Change ** , ,912 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 22

23 Single Table 1.3b: History of Housing Starts Freehold Semi Guelph CMA Ownership Row, Apt. & Other Single Condominium Row and Semi Apt. & Other Single, Semi, and Row % Change n/a ** % Change % Change n/a ** ,021 % Change ** ** n/a n/a % Change n/a ,087 % Change n/a 26.9 ** n/a n/a % Change n/a n/a % Change n/a n/a % Change n/a ,420 Rental Apt. & Other Total* Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 23

24 Table 2: Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total Submarket % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.1: Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type January - September 2014 YTD 2014 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , ,028 1, Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa ** Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 24

25 Submarket Table 2.2: Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.3: Starts by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - September 2014 Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 25

26 Submarket Table 2.4: Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 2.5: Starts by Submarket and by Intended Market January - September 2014 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo , , ,028 1,469 Kitchener City , Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 26

27 Table 3: Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total Submarket % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa ** Puslinch Submarket Table 3.1: Completions by Submarket and by Dwelling Type January - September 2014 YTD 2014 Single Semi Row Apt. & Other Total YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 27

28 Table 3.2: Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market Submarket Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Table 3.3: Completions by Submarket, by Dwelling Type and by Intended Market January - September 2014 Submarket Freehold and Condominium Row Rental Freehold and Condominium Apt. & Other Rental YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 28

29 Submarket Table 3.4: Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market Freehold Condominium Rental Total* Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Submarket Table 3.5: Completions by Submarket and by Intended Market January - September 2014 Freehold Condominium Rental Total* YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 2013 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo ,484 1,557 Kitchener City Cambridge City North Dumfries Waterloo City Woolwich Guelph CMA Guelph City Guelph/Eramosa Puslinch Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) 29

30 Submarket Table 4a: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range Price Ranges < $300,000 Units Share (%) $300,000 - $349,999 Share Units (%) $350,000 - $399,999 Share Units (%) $400,000 - $449,999 Share Units (%) $450,000 + Median Average Total Price ($) Price ($) Share Units (%) Kitchener City Q , ,632 Q , ,106 Year-to-date , ,781 Year-to-date , ,282 Cambridge City Q , ,628 Q , ,285 Year-to-date , ,942 Year-to-date , ,867 North Dumfries Q Q , ,853 Year-to-date , ,320 Year-to-date , ,140 Waterloo City Q , ,629 Q , ,398 Year-to-date , ,272 Year-to-date , ,315 Woolwich Q Q , ,069 Year-to-date , ,441 Year-to-date , ,948 Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo CMA Q , ,803 Q , ,903 Year-to-date , ,852 Year-to-date , ,535 Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 30

31 Submarket Table 4b: Absorbed Single-Detached Units by Price Range < $300,000 Units Share (%) $300,000 - $349,999 Share Units (%) Price Ranges $350,000 - $399,999 Share Units (%) $400,000 - $449,999 Share Units (%) $450,000 + Guelph City Q , ,212 Q , ,418 Year-to-date , ,868 Year-to-date , ,390 Guelph/Eramosa Q Q n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Year-to-date , ,330 Year-to-date n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a 0 n/a Puslinch Q Q Year-to-date ,130,000 1,014,851 Year-to-date Guelph CMA Q , ,719 Q , ,211 Year-to-date , ,817 Year-to-date , ,814 Units Share (%) Total Median Price ($) Average Price ($) Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 31

32 Table 4.1: Average Price ($) of Absorbed Single-detached Units Submarket Q Q % Change YTD 2014 YTD 2013 % Change Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo 454, , , , Kitchener City 444, , , , Cambridge City 432, , , , North Dumfries ,853 n/a 433, , Waterloo City 503, , , , Woolwich ,069 n/a 502, , Guelph CMA 551, , , , Guelph City 470, , , , Guelph/Eramosa n/a 560, n/a Puslinch n/a 1,014, n/a Source: CMHC (Market Absorption Survey) 32

33 Table 5a: MLS Residential Activity for Kitchener Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , , ,071 February , ,293 March , ,990 April , , ,286 May , , ,665 June , , ,156 July , , ,463 August , ,401 September , , ,162 October , ,987 November , ,859 December , , January , , ,864 February , ,635 March , ,470 April , , ,957 May ,351 1, , ,203 June , , ,536 July , , ,647 August , ,848 September , , ,917 October November December Q , , , Q , , , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 33

34 Table 5b: MLS Residential Activity for Guelph Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , ,747 February , ,422 March , ,026 April , ,968 May , ,984 June , ,160 July , ,502 August , ,845 September , ,232 October , ,421 November , ,993 December , , January , ,585 February , ,273 March , ,996 April , ,914 May , ,602 June , ,218 July , ,510 August , ,291 September , ,512 October November December Q , , Q , , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 34

35 Table 5c: MLS Residential Activity for Cambridge Number of Sales 1 Yr/Yr 2 (%) Sales SA 1 Number of New Listings 1 New Listings SA 1 Sales-to- New Listings SA 2 Average Price 1 ($) Yr/Yr 2 (%) Average Price 1 ($) SA 2013 January , ,718 February , ,507 March , ,434 April , ,433 May , ,539 June , ,554 July , ,730 August , ,079 September , ,424 October , ,431 November , ,151 December , , January , ,956 February , ,706 March , ,785 April , ,942 May , ,816 June , ,819 July , ,913 August , ,448 September , ,716 October November December Q , , Q , , YTD , , , YTD , , , MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 1 Source: CREA 2 Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS data supplied by CREA 35

36 P & I Per $100,000 Table 6a: Economic Indicators Interest Rates NHPI, Total, Mortage Rates Kitchener- CPI, 2002 (%) Cambridge- =100 Waterloo (Ontario) 1 Yr. 5 Yr. CMA Term Term 2007=100 Employment SA (,000) Kitchener Labour Market Unemployment Rate (%) SA Participation Rate (%) SA Average Weekly Earnings ($) 2013 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 36

37 Table 6b: Economic Indicators Interest Rates Guelph Labour Market NHPI, CPI, 2002 Mortgage Rates Total, P & I =100 Average (%) Ontario Employment Unemployment Participation Per (Ontario) Weekly 1 Yr. 5 Yr. 2007=100 SA (,000) Rate (%) SA Rate (%) SA $100,000 Earnings ($) Term Term 2013 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December "P & I" means Principal and Interest (assumes $100,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years using current 5 year interest rate) "NHPI" means New Housing Price Index "CPI" means Consumer Price Index "SA" means Seasonally Adjusted Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM), Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 37

38 Methodology Starts & Completions Survey Methodology The Starts and Completions Survey is conducted by way of site visits which are used to confirm that new units have reached set stages in the construction process. Since most municipalities in the country issue building permits, these are used as an indication of where construction is likely to take place. In areas where there are no permits, reliance has to be placed either on local sources or searching procedures. The Starts and Completions Survey is carried out monthly in urban areas with population in excess of 50,000, as defined by the 2011 Census. In urban areas with populations of 10,000 to 49,999, all Starts are enumerated in the last month of the quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). In these centres with quarterly enumeration, Completion activity is modeled based on historical patterns. Monthly Starts and Completions activity in these quarterly locations are statistically estimated at a provincial level for single and multi categories. Centres with populations below 10,000 are enumerated on a sample basis, also in the last month of each quarter (i.e. four times a year, in March, June, September and December). The Starts and Completions Survey enumerates dwelling units in new structures only, designed for non-transient and year-round occupancy. Mobile homes are included in the surveys. A mobile home is a type of manufactured house that is completely assembled in a factory and then moved to a foundation before it is occupied. Trailers or any other movable dwelling (the larger often referred to as a mobile home) with no permanent foundation are excluded from the survey. Conversions and/or alterations within an existing structure are excluded from the surveys as are seasonal dwellings, such as: summer cottages, hunting and ski cabins, trailers and boat houses; and hostel accommodations, such as: hospitals, nursing homes, penal institutions, convents, monasteries, military and industrial camps, and collective types of accommodation such as: hotels, clubs, and lodging homes. Market Absorption Survey Methodology The Market Absorption Survey is carried out in conjunction with the Starts and Completions Survey in urban areas with populations in excess of 50,000. When a structure is recorded as completed, an update is also made as units are sold or rented. The dwellings are then enumerated each month until such time as full absorption occurs. STARTS AND COMPLETIONS SURVEY AND MARKET ABSORPTION SURVEY DEFINITIONS A dwelling unit, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as a structurally separate set of self-contained living premises with a private entrance from outside the building or from a common hall, lobby, or stairway inside the building. Such an entrance must be one that can be used without passing through another separate dwelling unit. A start, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. The number of units under construction as at the end of the period shown, takes into account certain adjustments which are necessary for various reasons. For example, after a start on a dwelling has commenced construction may cease, or a structure, when completed, may contain more or fewer dwelling units than were reported at start. A completion, for purposes of the Starts and Completions Survey, is defined as the stage at which all the proposed construction work on a dwelling unit has been performed, although under some circumstances a dwelling may be counted as completed where up to 10 per cent of the proposed work remains to be done. The term absorbed means that a housing unit is no longer on the market (i.e. has been sold or rented). This usually happens when a binding contract is secured by a non-refundable deposit and has been signed by a qualified purchaser. The purpose of the Market Absorption Survey is to measure the rate at which units are sold or rented after they are completed, as well as collect prices. 38

39 DWELLING TYPES: A Single-Detached dwelling (also referred to as Single ) is a building containing only one dwelling unit, which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Includes link homes, where two units may share a common basement wall but are separated above grade. Also includes cluster-single developments. A Semi-Detached (Double) dwelling (also referred to as Semi ) is one of two dwellings located side-by-side in a building, adjoining no other structure and separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. A Row (Townhouse) dwelling is a one family dwelling unit in a row of three or more attached dwellings separated by a common or party wall extending from ground to roof. The term Apartment and other includes all dwellings other than those described above, including structures commonly known as stacked townhouses, duplexes, triplexes, double duplexes and row duplexes. Intended market: The intended market is the tenure in which the unit is being marketed. This includes the following categories: Freehold: A residence where the owner owns the dwelling and lot outright. Condominium (including Strata-Titled): An individual dwelling which is privately owned, but where the building and/or the land are collectively owned by all dwelling unit owners. A condominium is a form of ownership rather than a type of house. Rental: Dwelling constructed for rental purposes regardless of who finances the structure. Geographical terms: A census metropolitan area (CMA) or a census agglomeration (CA) is formed by one or more adjacent municipalities centred on a large urban area (known as the urban core). The census population count of the urban core is at least 10,000 to form a census agglomeration and at least 100,000 to form a census metropolitan area. To be included in the CMA or CA, other adjacent municipalities must have a high degree on integration with the central urban area, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data. CMAs and CAs contain whole municipalities or Census Subdivisions. A Rural area, for the purposes of this publication, is a centre with a population less than 10,000. All data presented in this publication is based on Statistics Canada s 2006 Census area definitions. 39

40 CMHC Home to Canadians (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 65 years. Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country. For more information, visit our website at or follow us on Twitter, YouTube and Flickr. You can also reach us by phone at or by fax at Outside Canada call or fax to supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call The Market Analysis Centre s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information ed automatically to you the same day it is released. It s quick and convenient! Go to For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at To subscribe to priced, printed editions of MAC publications, call All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason. Any use of the publication s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows: Source: CMHC (or Adapted from CMHC, if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue. Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at or For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information: Publication s name, year and date of issue. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of. The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which or any of its employees shall incur responsibility. 40

41 Housing market intelligence you can count on FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE n Canadian Housing Statistics n Condominium Owners Report n Housing Information Monthly n Housing Market Outlook, Canada n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional n Monthly Housing Statistics n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres n Rental Market Statistics n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors Housing Reports CMHC s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information. Forecasts and Analysis Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends. Statistics and Data Information on current housing market activities starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more. Get the market intelligence you need today! Click to view, download or subscribe. HOUSING MARKET INFORMATION PORTAL The housing data you want, the way you want it Information in one central location. Quick and easy access. Neighbourhood level data. cmhc.ca/hmiportal

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