What Does it All Mean?

Transcription

1

2 What Does it All Mean? New Construction Inventory is still balanced at 6.1 months of new construction inventory and is tracking almost identical to last year has been a great year for Existing Residential sales. The market has slowed down a little mostly due to three factors. 1. The Federal Reserve has bumped interest rates up 3 times this year. 2. Uncharacteristically the mid-term elections were very much in the news and created a lot uncertainty and that always makes many people put off large decisions and purchases 3. We have sold so many houses already this year that there is simply is not as much inventory to purchase since we are at 3.9 months of existing inventory. However, for the year the YTD closings for existing are still about 12% higher as of October 2018 as compared to October Our market is still in the best position it has been in for years and poised to see some real growth. The National and State economy is very good and there are a number of commercial expansions planned in the Fayetteville and Hope Mills area and some new jobs have been announced recently! However, I would like to see improvement in development design and growth planning. If we implement some simple but very important features we would start our community on the way to looking better. 1. Move the buildings up to the sidewalk and put the parking in the back. 2. The front of the building facing the road and sidewalk needs to have lots of permeable/transparent walls (glass windows and doors). Over time and without much cost these development changes would greatly improve the look and feel of our community. It would do away with large ugly parking lots as our number one visual. It would reduce the need for huge signs at the road. It would make it inviting to walk along the road and not feel like you are just walking out beside some highway. I hope to see this start to become the norm and not the exception If you have further questions about our market or would like more information please contact me at davidrayevans@gmail.com

3 10 Steps to Bring Real Companies, Real Jobs 1. Identify Soldiers separating from Bragg and their skills. Categorize and market those skill to entice companies to locate their businesses here. 2. Install Sidewalks on all major thoroughfares that are near heavily populated residential areas or have an abundance of retail commercial on them. 3. Encourage and promote food service that provides seating adjacent or even on the sidewalk. 4. Put lots of park benches on the sidewalks. 5. Install Bike Lanes connecting high density areas i.e. between and throughout Downtown and Cross Creek Mall area ; Downtown to Raeford Rd/Hopemills Rd intersection and then down Hope Mills to Hope Mills lake. Etc. 6. Install Multiple Crosswalks on all major thoroughfares that have are near residential areas or have an abundance of retail commercial on them AND have them well marked with large signs and large bright colored hash marks on the road. 7. Require commercial buildings to be constructed up to the sidewalk. 8. Prohibit parking in front of building. Parking should be offsite or beside or behind or above the building. 9. Require building frontage to be permeable/transparent Doors and windows, no blank walls. 10.Quit spot zoning commercial. Set up commercial designated areas versus sprawling commercial to encourage vertical commercial development. With exceptions for Mixed use neighborhood development. Allow diverse land uses in accessible neighborhood and regional centers to encourage daily walking, biking, and transit use, reduce vehicle distance traveled and automobile dependence, and support car-free living.

4 New Construction Absorption and Inventory Report As of October 31, 2018 This report identifies the current inventory levels for New Construction in Cumberland Hoke and Harnett County. For Cumberland County the report is broken down by school districts. All research was done using the Fayetteville Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service. All Absorption Rates and $/S.F are based on 12 months of closing data The Highest Priced Neighborhoods by $/S.F. are: Parkview $146/S.F mos inv. Gates Four $130/S.F mos inv. Anderson Ck Club $123/S.F. 9.8 mos inv. Fairfeild Farms $118/S.F. 8.6 mos inv. The Lowest Priced Neighborhoods by $/S.F. are: Spring Hill $76/S.F. 8.3 mos inv. Lexington Woods $78/S.F mos inv. Blackbridge Village $81/S.F mos inv. This report created 11/30/2018 David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM

5 Month by Month Comparison of Closed New Construction For 2016 to Closed Mos. Closed Mos. Closed Mos. New Const Inv. New Const Inv. New Const Inv. Jan % % Feb % % Mar % % April % % May % % June % % July % % Aug % % Sept % % Oct % % Nov % Dec % YTD YTD % 2018 compared to 2017 YTD % 2018 compared to Cumberland % % % Harnett % % % Hoke % % % Lee 50 4% 69 5% 17 1% Moore % % % Robeson 6 1% 2 0% 4 0% Other 21 2% 20 2% 45 3% ========= ========= ========= Total TOTAL ,417 TOTAL ,168 TOTAL ,362 TOTAL ,716 TOTAL ,030 TOTAL ,374 TOTAL ,305 TOTAL ,965 TOTAL ,329 TOTAL ,088 TOTAL ,814 TOTAL ,190 TOTAL ,566 This report created by

6 Harnett County 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $219,091 Avg $/S.F. = $ ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Active Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Anderson Creek Club k - 416k 9.8 $123 Anderson Creek Crossing k - 280k 4.2 $108 Currin Plantatation k - 217k #DIV/0! $0 Forest Oaks k - 251k 7.2 $89 Oakmont k - 328k 7.2 $101 Spring Hill k - 197k 8.3 $76 The Lexington k - 290k 12.0 $95

7 Hoke County 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $234,957 Avg $/S.F. = $95.20 ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Bedford - Highlands k - 312k 13.3 $94 Bedford - Midlands k - 280k 4.9 $107 Longwood Crossing k - 216k #DIV/0! $0 Turnberry k - 315k 4.8 $89 Wedgefield k - 290k 6.2 $86 This report created by David Evans

8 Cumberland County 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % #DIV/0! 125, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % ,001 and up % Average Sale Price = $258,667 Avg $/S.F. = $ This report created by David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2016 President of Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors

9 Harnett, Hoke, Cumberland County 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % This report created by David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2010 President of Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors

10 Summary of New Construction Inventory In Cumberland County School Districts Mos. % of % of % of AVG Inv. Whole 3 Co. Cumb Sell AVG Nconst MKT MKT MKT Price $/S.F. Cape Fear 5.9 7% 9% 18% $242,937 $96 Douglas Byrd % 1% 1% $188,647 $105 EE Smith 6.0 0% 0% 0% $240,963 $103 Grays Creek % 13% 26% $269,812 $95 Jack Britt 4.2 8% 10% 19% $287,947 $107 Pine Forest 6.8 5% 6% 12% $266,532 $107 Seventy First 4.0 5% 6% 13% $206,387 $88 South View % 3% 6% $231,994 $88 Terry Sanford 7.7 2% 3% 5% $297,178 $125 Westover 0.0 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 Harnett Co % $219,091 $100 Hoke Co % $234,957 $95 Cumberland % $258,667 $99 Whole Mkt 6.2 This report created by David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2010 President of Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors

11 Cape Fear 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Suppy 75, , % , , % , , % , , % #DIV/0! 175, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $242,937 Avg $/S.F. = $96.27 Active Subdivisions Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Blakefield k - 285k 4.2 $91 Cedar Falls K - 188K #DIV/0! $0 Eastover North k - 301k 13.7 $96 Lexington Woods k - 323k 14.4 $78 Windwood Oaks k - 189k 6.0 $90 This report created by David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2010 President of Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors

12 Douglas Byrd 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % #DIV/0! 150, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $188,647 Avg $/S. $ Active Subdivisions Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Blounts Ridge k - 185k $80 This report created by David Evans

13 E.E. Smith 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % #DIV/0! 400, , % , , % , , % , , % ,001 and up % Average Sale Price = $240,963 Avg $/S. $ Active Subdivisions Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. This report created by David Evans

14 Grays Creek 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $269,812 Avg $/S.F. = $95.45 Active Subdivisions Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Grays Creek k - 500k 6.9 $110 James Place k - 324k 84.0 $102 Roslin Farms West k - 257k 4.9 $93 The Cypress k - 280k 4.4 $89 Village at Rockfish k - 330k 6.5 $89

15 Jack Britt 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $287,947 Avg $/S.F. = $ Active Subdivisions Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Gates Four k - 419k 21.6 $130 Traemoor k - 393k 9.0 $102 Peartree West k - 253k 2.7 $107 Westhaven k - 370k 3.3 $102 This report created by David Evans

16 Pine Forest 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % #DIV/0! 150, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $266,532 Avg $/S.F. = $ ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Fairfield Farms k - 400k 8.6 $118 This report created by David Evans

17 Seventy First 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $206,387 Avg $/S.F. = $87.54 ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Actives Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Highcroft k - 239k 7.2 $98 The Knollls on Cliffdale k - 245k 7.0 $83 Harris Plac k - 200k 16.8 $105 This report created by David Evans

18 South View 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % #DIV/0! 100, , % #DIV/0! 125, , % , , % #DIV/0! 175, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,000, % Average Sale Price = $231,994 Avg $/S.F. $87.93 ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Active Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Blackbridge Village k - 251k 13.3 $81 Steeple Chase k - 250k 54.0 $96 Teakwood Forest k - 118k #DIV/0! $0 Valley End k - 270k 15.0 $87 This report created by David Evans

19 Terry Sanford 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % ,001 1,875, % #DIV/0! Average Sale Price = $297,178 Avg $/S. $ ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Active Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. Parkview k - 398k 13.5 $146 This report created by David Evans

20 Westover 11/01/17-10/31/18 Price Range # Active # Closed #Closed % of Months last 12mo per month Market Supply 75, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % #DIV/0! 250, , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % ,001 and up % Average Sale Price = $0 Avg $/S.F. $0.00 ACTIVE SUBDIVISIONS Active Closed Price Range Mos Inv. $/S.F. This report created by David Evans

21 New Construction Numbers 2017 Existing Numbers Yr. % chg 1 Yr. % chg Total Closed 1, % Total Closed 6, % Median price $239, % median price $137, % Median s.f % median s.f. 1, % Median $/s.f. $ % median $/s.f. $ % (NOTE: 2016 Numbers did not include geographical areas of Lee County, Robeson County, Therefore the year over year % is not a direct comparison of the same geographical region.

22

23 Sales Trend New Construction October 2018 David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2010 & 16 President of Longleaf Pine Realtors

24 2017 New Construction Numbers by County Cumberland County 1yr. % chg. Total Closed % median price $248, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % Harnett County Total Closed % median price $209, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % Hoke County Total Closed % median price $220, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % Lee County Total Closed 68 median price $209,900 median s.f median $/s.f. $102.50

25 November 1, 2017 to October 31, 2018 Whole MKT Existing Home Absorption Rates 652 closed in October 2018 % of MKT Price Range # Active # Closed Closed/Month Mos. Supply <74, , % $75,000-$99, % $100,000-$124, % $125,000-$149, % $150,000-$174, % $175,000-$199, % $200,000-$224, % $225,000-$249, % $250,000-$299, % $300,000-$349, % $350,000-$399, % $400,000-$499, % $500,000-$749, % $750,000-$999, % $1,000,000 and up N/A Totals 2,400 7, September 30, 2018 Existing Absorption 448 closed was 3.80 August 31, 2018 Existing Absorption 749 closed was 4.12 July 31, 2018 Existing Absorption 814 closed was 4.20 June 30, 2018 Existing Absorption 897 closed was 4.23 May 31, 2018 Existing Absorption 753 closed was 4.40 April 30, 2018 Existing Absorption 577 closed was 4.41 March 31, 2018 Existing Absorption 651 closed was 4.52 February 28, 2017 Existing Absorption 491 closed was 4.59 January 31, 2017 Existing Absorption 420 closed was 4.72 December 31, 2017 Existing Absorption 477 closed was 5.07 November 30, 2017 Existing Absorption 527 closed was 5.15 October, 2017 Existing Absorption 607 closed was 5.45 September, 2017 Existing Absorption 543 closed was 5.83 August, 2017 Existing Absorption 627 closed was 5.96 July, 2017 Existing Absorption 559 closed was 6.08 June, 2017 Existing Absorption 695 closed was 6.08 May, 2017 Existing Absorption 593 closed was 6.11 April, 2017 Existing Absorption 505 closed was 5.94 March, 2017 Existing Absorption 544 closed was 5.94 February, 2017 Existing Absorption 393 closed was 5.56 January, 2017 Existing Absorption 425 closed was 5.56 December 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 443 closed was 5.86 November 30, 2016 Existing Absorption 419 closed was 6.39 October 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 408 closed was 6.80 September 30, 2016 Existing Absorption 527 closed was 6.86 August 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 638 closed was 7.37 July 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 560 Closed was 7.88 June 30, 2016 Existing Absorption 562 closed was 7.67 May 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 527 closed was 7.50 Arpil 30, 2016 Existing Absorption 469 closed was 7.50 March 31, 2016 Existing Absorption 481 closed was 7.47 February 29, 2016 Existing Absorption 385 closed was 7.45 January Existing Absorption 327 closed was 7.57

26 December Existing Absorption 382 closed was 7.81 November Existing Absorption 362 closed was 8.91 October Existing Absorption 430 closed was 8.91 September Existing Absorption 437 closed was 9.40 Aug Existing Home Absorption Rates 510 closed was 9.74 July Existing Home Absorption Rates 525 closed was 9.93 January Existing Home Absorption Rates 265 closed was 9.20 December 31 Existing Home Absorption Rates 362 closed was 9.19 September 30, 2014 Existing Home Absorption Rates 365 closed was June 30, 2014 Existing Home Absorption Rates 442 closed was March 31, 2014 Existing Home Absorption Rates 347 closed was Dec 31, 2013 Existing Home Absorption Rates 289 closed was Sep 30, 2013 Existing Home Absorption Rates 359 closed was June 30, 2013 Existing Home Absorption Rates 365 closed was March 31, 2013 Existing Home Absorption Rates 261 closed was December 31, 2012 Existing Home Absorption Rates 228 closed was September 30, 2012 Existing Home Absorption Rates 229 closed was July 31, 2012 Existing Home Absorption Rates 252 closed was June 30, 2012 Existing Home Absorption Rates 281 closed was March 31, 2012 Existing Home Absorption Rates 231 closed was Dec 31, 2011 Existing Home Absorption Rates 234 closed was Sep 30, 2011 Existing Home Absorption Rates 266 closed was June 30, 2011 Existing Home Absorption Rates 396 closed was March 30, 2011 Existing Home Absorption Rates 320 closed was Dec 31, 2010 Existing Home Absorption Rates 301 closed was Sept 30, 2010 Existing Home Absorption Rates 274 closed was June 30, 2010 Existing Home Absorption Rates 422 closed was March 31, 2010 Existing Home Absorption Rates 305 closed was Dec 31, 2009 Existing Home Absorption Rates 274 closed was 8.61 Sep 30, 2009 Existing Home Absorption Rates 305 closed was 8.17 June 30, 2009 Existing Home Absorption Rates 413 closed was 7.46 March 31, 2009 Existing Home Absorption Rates 329 closed was 6.95 Dec 31, 2008 Existing Home Absorption Rates 296 closed was 6.39 Sep 30, 2008 Existing Home Absorption Rates was 5.96 June 30, 2008 Existing Home Absorption Rates was 6.25 February 28, 2008 Existing Home Absorption Rates was 5.88

27 Sales Trend Existing Residential by Price Range October 2018 David Evans GRI, CRS, MIRM 2010 & 16 President of Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors

28

29

30 Year to Year Comparison of Foreclosures

31 2017 Existing Numbers by County Cumberland County 1yr. % chg. Total Closed 3, % median price $120, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % The first 25% sells in 16 days or less 50% of the market sells in 50 days or less After 50 Days the average DOM for the rest is 154 Days Harnett County Total Closed % median price $170, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % The first 25% sells in 17 days or less 50% of the market sells in 46 days or less After 50 Days the average DOM for the rest is 129 Days Hoke County Total Closed % median price $149, % median s.f % median $/s.f. $ % The first 25% sells in 11 days or less 50% of the market sells in 31 days or less After 31 Days the average DOM for the rest is 120 Days

32 Lee County Total Closed 486 median price $152,500 median s.f median $/s.f. $86.61 The first 25% sells in 20 days or less 50% of the market sells in 55 days or less After 55 Days the average DOM for the rest is 176 Days Robeson County Total Closed 337 median price $89,900 median s.f median $/s.f. $53.45 The first 25% sells in 28 days or less 50% of the market sells in 71 days or less After 71 Days the average DOM for the rest is 240 Days