Inside China s Auto Market. SUE YINGZI SU Senior Economist, General Motors

Transcription

1 Inside China s Auto Market SUE YINGZI SU Senior Economist, General Motors

2 INTRODUCTION Growth in Chinese auto industry surprised most experts Having reached 20+ million units in annual sales, China auto industry still has great potential Low vehicle ownership density Room for growth in smaller cities Yet, pace of auto sales will be slower than before Slower growth in Chinese economy Restrictions on auto purchases and uses Rising costs of owning and operating a vehicle

3 It has been a spectacular run Growth % 60% Growth of China Auto Industry Volume (Mil.) 25 50% 40% WTO 51% % Average growth rate : 17% % 15 20% 10 10% 0% 2% 4% 5-10% -

4 China vehicle sales v.s. the World 30,000 25,000 Vehicle Sales by Region China Total Europe North America Other Markets 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,

5 Thousands Growth in vehicle sales returned to double digit in ,500 2,000 China Industry Monthly Volume ,500 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

6 Real GDP growth is slowing Trend of GDP Growth Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q

7 Rebalancing Chinese economy will have profound impact 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Major Components of China GDP % 47.8% 36.0% 49.5% -20% Consumption Investment Net Exports Household Consumption

8 New Vehicle Sales Per 1,000 People Great potential remains for China Korea Taiwan Country 2012 Car Parc/ 1,000 People U.S. 813 Australia 693 Japan Japan Korea 385 Russia Taiwan China Thailand 193 Brazil 187 China ,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 Egypt 36 India 24 GDP Per Capita (2012 EKS$) Source: Conference Board Total Economy Database, GM calculation 8

9 Challenges in China aging population Million Median Age Working Age Population Age Source: United Nations 9

10 Challenges in China - pollution 10

11 Challenges in China - congestion 11

12 More cities will restrict vehicle purchase after Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Guiyang Growth rate of vehicle sales in cities that could restrict purchases Qing Dao Chong Qing Wu Han 城市 City 青岛 Tian 天津 Jin 重庆武汉深圳石家庄成都杭州全国 % 36% 62% 54% 20% 58% 77% 65% 56% % 18% 30% 25% 28% 28% 13% 38% 26% % 8% 17% 12% 4% 11% -2% -2% 4% % 10% 24% 10% 12% 17% 6% 8% 16% % 30% 22% 33% 31% 21% 21% 24% 16% Shen Zhen Shi jia Zhuang Cheng Du Hang Zhou Nation Source: China State Information Center

13 Rising cost of owning a vehicle - Shanghai license plate auction price topped RMB80,000 ($14,000) in October Yuan 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,

14 Motivations to trade up 110.8% SUV Growth Rate 86.9% Passenger Vehicle Growth Rate 85.7% 62.9% 65.6% 59.4% 51.4% 26.1% 29.5% 13.8% 23.7% 24.9% 19.4% 11.2% 7.3% 31.7% 47.5% 35.6% 37.4% 25.9% 17.9% 6.8% 13.7% 8.8%

15 Industry Volume (000 units) Chinese Passenger Vehicle Market 80% PV is just 4 Segments. PV is global brand dominated (73%) 16,000 12,000 Global Brands Local Brands 68% 73% 8,000 4, % 30% 26% 20% Car C is the largest segment, with over 5 million units sold in 2012, the size of total industry of Japan

16 Chinese Commercial Vehicle Market Over 85% CV is just 3 segments Local Brands Dominate CV markets

17 It is a fragmented market 2012 Total China Industry (incl. CVs) ~ 19.4 million units w/ 30+ local OEM groups supported by provincial/municipal Government

18 Top 10 Vehicles in Wuling Sunshine Wuling Rongguang BJ 10 SERIES Volume Model Name Veh Type Wuling Sunshine CV 522,933 2 Wuling Rong Guang CV 466,428 3 BJ 10 Series CV 429,035 4 Changan Star Light CV 325,554 5 Wuling CN100 PV 316,235 6 Ford Focus PV 296,360 7 Hyundai Elantra PV 279,121 8 Buick Excelle PV 277,071 9 Toyota Corolla PV 276, VW Lavida PV 246,687 Changan Star Wuling CN100 Ford Focus Hyundai New Elantra Buick Excelle Toyota Corolla VW Lavida Source: China Sales

19 Top 10 Passenger Cars in Wuling CN100 Buick Excelle 2 5 Ford Focus Toyota Corolla 3 6 Hyundai Elantra VW Lavida Model Name GM CN ,235 2 Ford Focus 296,360 3 Hyundai Elantra 279,121 4 GM Excelle 277,071 5 Toyota Corolla 276,418 6 VW Lavida 246,687 7 VW Jetta 242,528 8 GM Cruze 232,592 9 VW Bora 222, GM Sail 218, VW Jetta Chevrolet Cruze VW New Bora GM Sail

20 GM s Footprint in China Shenyang (SGM) Ha erbing (FGL) Changchun (FGL) Beijing Office Shanghai (SGM/ PATAC) Qujing (FGL) Liuzhou (SGMW) HK Office Qingdao (SGMW) Yantai (SGM) Shanghai OnStar China/IO Office

21 GM China 2012/13 Passenger Cars ATS CTS SLS SRX Escalade Excelle NB/SW New Excelle HB/NB Enclave Regal LaCrosse First Land GL8 Park Avenue CN100 MPV-B Encore Spark Captiva Aveo/Lova Sail NB/HB Epica Cruze Malibu Astra Astra GTC Astra Twin-Top Zafira Antara

22 SUMMARY China economy is slowing as Chinese government pursues more sustainable growth Auto sales will grow at a slower pace following restrictions on owning and operating vehicles But, demand for vehicles in China remains very strong and market potential remains huge

23 EVERYTHING STARTS AND ENDS WITH GREAT PRODUCTS