The German Market After the Scrapping Scheme. Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting

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1 The German Market After the Scrapping Scheme Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting

2 The Background Following the financial crisis and its negative impact on global trade, Germany has entered the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the second half of 2008 As a result, despite an already depressed market, domestic new car registrations started to plummet from Oct-2008 At the same time car exports have slumped as well as major export markets such as the U.S. and the U.K. declined even more dramatically To protect the German auto industry and its domestic production (jobs!) the German national government decided to introduce a scrapping incentive scheme for private new car demand...

3 New Car Registrations crashed in Q4/08 %-Change New Car Regs 2008 vs (Y/Y) - Germany 5% 3.60% 0% -5% H1-08 Q3-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 CY % -1.80% -10% -15% -20% -8.2% -17.7% -6.6% Major deterioration in New Car Reg s began in August and accelerated sharply from October! Source: KBA, Germany

4 Deeply Depressed Drivers of New Car Demand Dominated the 2009 Outlook Ifo Business Climate - Germany (Indices s.a., 2000 = 100) EC Composite Consumer Confidence Index s.a. - Germany (2005 = 100) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Business Climate Business Situation Business Expectations Motoring Cost Index vs. CPI (2005 = 100) - Germany Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Motoring CPI Fuel Prices in Germany (Euro Cent/L) - Monthly Average Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Sources: Ifo Institute, European Comission, Statistisches Bundesamt (DeStatis), MWV Normal Super Diesel Gasoline / Diesel

5 Private Demand Has Been Depressed For Years => Strong Pent-Up Demand! Q Intention to buy a car within the next 12 month - Germany (Balances s.a.) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % 3.8 Passenger Car New Regs - Germany (Mil. units) 4% 1% 3.5 0% 0% % -2% -3% 3.1-6% 3.1-7% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% % % o/u Average TIV (units) 10-Year Average 100% New Car Regs by Type of Customer - Germany 9.0 Average Age of Passenger Car Parc (years) - Germany* 80% % 40% 20% 0% PRIVATE AUTO RETAIL CAR MAKERS RENTAL FLEETS BUSINESS OTHER Sources: European Comission, KBA WE Average years (+28%)

6 The Scrapping Incentive Relevance: Private New Car and Young Used Car ( Jahreswagen ) Replacement Purchases in 2009 Conditions: Old car must be physically scrapped Min. age of scrapped car: 9 years (1st Registration before ), min 1 year with last owner New car (up to 12 months since first registration) must comply with Euro-4/5 emissions levels Duration and Magnitude: From 14/01/2009 to ,500 / car, paid after registration of new car and proof of scrappage, but can be reserved at time of signing order or purchase contract Total budget increased from 1.5 bn EUR to 5 bn EUR (=max. 2 Mio cars) in early April, exhausted since 2nd September 2009 Expected Volume Impact: Total induced extra volume (new and young used cars), excl. windfall gains: +1.3 million units 2009 extra New Reg s: +1,000,000 units (net effect of 60% -> payback in 2010 ff) 2009 extra young used cars (Jahreswagen): + 300,000 units

7 Scrapping Incentive Has Boosted New Car Demand Strongly Since Feb Jan-06 Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Sales Rate (SAAR) - PC NR Germany Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-07: VAT-Increase (16% ->19%) Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Mid Jan-09: Intro Scrapping Incentive Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Expected TIV for 2009 w/o counter-actions: ca. 2.6 Mil. units Jul-09 Seas. Adj. (Dec-09) Trend (Dec-09) Seas. Adj. (Aug-09) Trend (Aug-09) Source: KBA, Germany / IHS Global Insight Calculations

8 Order Intake and Stock Coming Back to Normal After Strong Surge in H1/2009 Index (seasonally adjusted) Jan-06 Apr-06 Domestic Passenger Car Order Intake & Order Stock - Germany Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Order Stock Domstics & Importers (RHS) Orders to Domestics Orders to Importers Source: VDA, Germany Jan-07: VAT-Increase (16% ->19%) Mid Jan-09: Intro Scrapping Incentive 1, (Thousand units) %-Change Y/Y 09(1-7): Dom. 400 Orders : +28% Imp. Orders: % Total (Average): +51%

9 The Scrapping Incentive Volume Impact Volumes ('000 units) TIV-FC w/o Scrapping Incentive 3,090 2,629 3,017 3,189 3,297 3,378 TIV-FC w/o Scrapping Incentive - GR Y/Y -1.8% -14.9% 14.8% 5.7% 3.4% 2.5% TIV-FC with Scrapping Incentive (5 bn) 3,090 3,624 2,747 3,079 3,277 3,378 TIV-FC with Scrapping Incentive (5 bn) - GR Y/Y -1.8% 17.3% -24.2% 12.1% 6.4% 3.1% Delta TIV-FC w & w/o Scrapping Incentive (5bn) Delta TIV-FC w & w/o Scrapping Incentive (5bn) - % 0.0% 38.0% -9.3% -3.5% -0.6% 0.0% TIV with & w/o Scrapping Scheme (Mil. units) 3.62 Immediate Impact: Approx. +1 Mil. units in Payback Effect: ca. -400k units (-40%) owing to planned purchases pulled forward from 2010/ w/o Scrapping Source: Data: KBA, Germany / Forecast: Global Insight Calculations with Scrapping

10 The Scrapping Incentive Impact on New Car Market Structure Relative Price Advantage of fixed Scrapping premium is higher the lower the base price / list price of the new car Price elasticity is higher among typical small/cheap and used car buyers => Scrapping scheme favours small new and young used cars with relatively low base price! Small / low price car sales grow at the expense of larger and more expensive cars => strong growth in Micro and Small cars (Vol and MS%) Growth in small car sales accelerates in Cause: Combination of model offer and price impact from scrapping incentive Decline in large car sales accelerates in 2009 (esp. Large and Full-size MPV/SUV both Premium and Standard). Cause: Weak business demand due to a combination of poor macro (-> business climate), higher lease rates and a structural shift towards more economical cars in business fleets => In 2009 Standard brands gain market share at the expense of Premium/Luxury brands Some reversal of above from 2010, return to normal from 2011/2012

11 Private Demand Boosted By Scrapping Incentive While Business Demand Suffers From Poor Business Climate New Car Regs by Type of Customer - Germany 100% 80% 60% - 24% Y/Y 35% 60% 40% 20% 40% + 101% Y/Y 65% 0% (1-8) PRIVATE ALL BUSINESSES Source: KBA, Germany

12 A and B Cars Benefit Most From Scrapping Scheme but Also Suffer Most From Payback in 2010 New Car Regs by Segment (thousand units) - Germany 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, (5.5%) 279(9%) 657 (21.3%) 1,139 (36.9%) 655 (21.2%) 190(6.2%) -14% -13% +10% +62% +77% 161(4.4%) 240(6.6%) 573 (15.8%) 1,256 (34.7%) 1,057 (29.2%) 337(9.3%) +26% +6% -18% -49% -54% TIV: -24% Y/Y 115(4.2%) 303(11%) 609 (22.2%) 1,030 (37.5) 536 (19.5%) 154(5.6%) 141(4.1%) 290(8.4%) 694 (20.1%) 1,261 (36.6%) 782 (22.7%) 280(8.1%) A B + MPV-B + SUV-B C + MPV-C + SUV-C D + MPV-D + SUV-D E+F + MPV-E + SUV-E Other Source: Data: KBA, Germany / Forecast: IHS Global Insight Calculations

13 and Brands Mirror Segmentation Development New Car Regs by Types of Brands (thousand units) - Germany 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, (4.8%) -24% Y/Y +60% % 125(3.6%) +40% 335(9.2%) -55% 108(3.5%) 326(9.5%) +24% (8.7%) 168(4.6%) -27% 91(2.6%) +89% 81(3.0%) 89(2.9%) 358(9.9%) -54% 305(8.9%) 245(8.9%) 290(9.4%) +23% -32% 77(2.8%) 242(8.8%) (20.3%) (27.9%) 850 (27.5%) -13% +8% TIV: 792 (28.8%) 1, ,124 (36.4%) 1, % (37.7%) -23% 1,045 (38%) 1,252 (36.3%) DEU-Mainstream DEU-Premium FRA-Mainstream ITA-Mainstream JAP-Mainstream JAP-Budget KOR-Budget Others Source: Data: KBA, Germany / Forecast: Global Insight Calculations

14 Falling Business Demand and Downgrading of Model Mix Pull Down Diesel Share in % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Private/Business Share (%) & Diesel Share (%) in Germany - Montly Averages Mid Jan-09: Intro Scrapping Incentive 20% 10% Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Private NR Share (lhs) Business NR Share (lhs) Total Diesel Share (rhs) Private Diesel Share (rhs) Business Diesel Share (rhs) Source: KBA / VDA, Germany %-Change Jan-July 2009: - Private New Car Regs: + 101% y/y - Business New Car Regs: - 25% y/y 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%

15 Business Demand and Diesel Share Expected to Bounce Back in % 65% 60% 55% Private/Business Share (%) & Diesel Share (%) in Germany -Yearly Averages Mid Jan-09: Intro Scrapping Incentive 60% 60% 65% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Jan-07: VAT-Increase (16% ->19%) 25% Private NR Share (lhs) Business NR Share (lhs) Total Diesel Share (rhs) Source: Data: KBA, Germany / Forecast: IHS Global Insight Calculations 44% 40% 40% 32% 46% 35%

16 Drivers of New Car Demand Summary of Near-Term Outlook Impact Factor Real GDP Growth (--) (-/o) (++) Consumer Climate and Real Disposable Incomes (o/+) (-) (o/+) Unemployment (o/-) (--) (--) Business Climate and Investment (--) (o/+) (++) Replacement Needs / Demand* (++) (--) (-) Temporary Vehicle Tax Waiver (+/o) (o) (o) *Scrapping Incentive (++) (--) (-) New CO 2 -based Vehicle Circulation Tax (+/o) (+/o) (o) Car Makers Activities (e.g. Model Policy, Finance / Leasing, Incentives) (++) (+) (+/o) Fuel Prices (+) (o/-) (-)

17 Thank You! Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting

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