Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dr. Gil Tal, PEV Use Patterns & Infrastructure Needs, China Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dahlia Garas, Program

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1 Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dr. Gil Tal, PEV Use Patterns & Infrastructure Needs, China Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dahlia Garas, Program Director Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations & Incentive Structures in USA Dr. Scott Hardman, Europe PEV Markets Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback

2 The best news is that battery cell and pack prices have been dropping & forecast prices for 22 & 225 dropping as well McKinsey US Department of Energy predicts $125 kwh (pack) by 222 Pack price Tesla says $19 kwh in 216 and $1 in 22 (cells) GM said it paid $145 per kwh cell price for 217 Bolt GM says Bolt will reach price parity in 222. Renault says they will reach price parity 22.

3 WORLD PEV MARKET

4 The number of PEVs in the world in 217 will likely go over 3 million (out of 1 billion vehicles) & over 1 million in sales (out of 9 million vehicles) 217 forecast 217 forecast

5 First quarter 217 global PEV sales by model Thousands March YTD

6 1 st quarter (& March) 217 global PEV sales by manufacturer Thousands 25 2 March 1st Quarter

7 And as a result, car makers are now in competition to make second generation BEVs, miles of range, Level 1-2 automation, AWD, high power charging 218 Tesla Model miles range, $29,995 after tax credit 217 Volkswagen egolf 217 Chevrolet Bolt 217 BWM i3

8 And second generation PHEVs 2-4 miles range, larger, SUV/Crossover type vehicles, more power, AWD, & more automation 217 Toyota Prius Prime 217 Volkswagen Passat GTE 217 Chevrolet Volt 217 Audi A3 etron 217 Chrysler Pacifica

9 While the current PEV offerings emphasizes small sedans, the shift is to more SUV/Crossover

10 Thousands Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Thousands Thousands Growth in most markets has followed increase in number of models for sale USA Norway USA Sales USA No. of Models Norway Sales Norway No. of Models Germany Netherlands Germany Sales Germany No. of Models Netherlands Sales Netherlands No. of Models

11 There was 37% growth worldwide in 216.

12 Ratio of BEVs to PHEVs varies, is shaped by policies, trending to PHEVs in several markets, with evmt problems % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % BEVs PHEVs

13 This slide is one year old, but still relevant. Small shiftsin PEV policy in Norway made more room for growth around PHEVs in one car & older households Source: Dr. Gil Tal, UC Davis

14 German car market responding to incentives & new PEV models First quarter 217

15 Sales growth in China continues, and always follows a pattern for strong end-of-year sales (Chinese New Year or tax deadlines?) Data Source: China Passenger Cars Association (CPCA) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

16 THOUSANDS China is moving further towards BEVs - 8% China PEV Quarterly Sales 14 BEV PHEV % % 31.% 27.9% % 19.8% 45.9% 72.2% 37.4% 72.1% 69.% 4.5% 28.1% 8.2% 42.4% 27.1% 32.5% 71.9% 59.5% 54.1% 62.6% 35.4% 64.6% 72.9% 67.5% 57.6% 214-Q1 214-Q2 214-Q3 214-Q4 215-Q1 215-Q2 215-Q3 215-Q4 216-Q1 216-Q2 216-Q3 216-Q4 217-Q1

17 216 PEV Sales Top 1 Cities in China: BEVs only in Beijing & registration restrictions are important 216 PEV Sales BEV Manufacturer Beijing 63 BAIC PHEV Manufacturer Shanghai SAIC Qingdao Shenzhen BYD BYD * Data Source: WAYS, 217 ww.way-s.cn * * BEV PHEV City with plate restriction Tianjin Taiyuan Guangzhou 1656 GAC Hangzhou 1533 Geely, Zotye Hefei 785 JAC Wuhu 7413 Chery * * * *

18 PEV MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN USA & CALIFORNIA

19 US PEV sales were flat in 215, but pick up in 216, and jumped in Dec. 216, with steady growth 1 st Quarter st quarter 217 Dec 216

20 US PEV Sales first four months 217: solid sales all around, could hit 2, this year if Dec strong.

21 PEVs are almost 1% of registrations; what % of VMT? Source: EVvolumes.com California is about 1-12% of total vehicle sales in USA, is almost 5% of total US PEV sales & fleet

22 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q!-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4_14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17* California almost 5% in this quarter, Chart 8 states Title are at 1-2%, the rest of US at about.5% % GA Rest UT CO CT VT OR WA HI DC CA 5% % California Oregon 3% 2% 1% Wash. DC Hawaii Washington Vermont Connecticut.5 Colorado Georgia Utah Rest of USA

23 PHEV & BEV combined passed HEV 91% increase in 1 st quarter 217 over 1 st Quarter source CNCDA / %.5.5 Percent of Total California LDV Market BEV PHEV HEV st quarter % 2.1% % YTD

24 World electric vehicle capitals Analyzed at metro area level, 215. Source: Hall, D., Moultak, M., Lutsey, N. (217). Electric vehicle capitals of the world: Demonstrating the path to electric drive. 24