The PEV Market and Infrastructure Needs

Transcription

1 The PEV Market and Infrastructure Needs Dahlia Garas, Program Director PH&EV Research Center Presenting Research by: Dr. Gil Tal Dr. Mike Nicholas ITS-DAVIS BOARD OF ADVISORS CLEAN TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH UPDATE November 18, 2013

2 LOOKING AT INTERACTIONS WITHIN PEV MARKET $ Vehicle Purchase Do customers have sufficient capital? Do customers have a garage? Can users install charging? Do driving patterns match an EV range? Will it save people money based on driving patterns (enough usage)? Driving Behavior Do EV users drive EVs differently? Will they develop a new EV Driving Territory? How do users maximize the cost benefits of their EV? Charging When, where, and how much will people use chargers? What motivates people to use a specific charger? How does pricing change charger usage? Is charging reliable? How many chargers are available?

3 NEW CAR BUYERS 7% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 35% of the new cars 27% purchased 1 car = 65% of the new car purchases 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% No new cars 1 New Car 2+ new Cars 66% of the households did not purchase a new car in last 5 years 7% of the households are responsible for 1/3 of the market New car purchases are highly correlated with income but not all high income households buy new cars & some lower income households purchased one or more new cars

4 U.S. SALES AND FLEET BEV sales PHEV Sales Total Sales Cumulative BEV Cumulative PHEV Cumulative PEV Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13

5 GLASS HALF-EMPTY OR HALF-FULL? Half empty: More than 80% of the market is based on 4 models Sales rate is growing linearly Half full: First 2 years of PEV sales outpacing HEV s first 2 years BEVs & PHEVs separately ~same as HEV rate World PEV total 200,000+, USA PEV total 140,000+ (~10,000/month) Sales rate is growing linearly California is ~40% of USA market Many new models Sales within some segments look strong Luxury sedans (Tesla Model S) compact sedans (Volt, Leaf)

6 PEVS ARE REGIONALLY CLUSTERED 3% to 5% percent of the addresses here have a plug in car.

7 BEVS AND PHEVS HAVE DIFFERENT DRIVING BEHAVIORS Cum Prob 0.5 Cum Prob Average Daily Miles One way Commute Density Density Average Daily Miles One way Commute Leaf Plug-In Prius Volt

8 MORE BEVS IN URBAN CORE, MORE PHEVS IN SUBURBS

9 NEW CAR BUYERS: HOUSEHOLD INCOME 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than $24,999 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or more ICE 4% 12% 17% 18% 25% 12% 13% 0% Hybrid 1% 7% 10% 14% 30% 17% 22% 0% No answer PRIUS PLUG-IN 1% 1% 1% 4% 17% 18% 36% 22% VOLT 0% 1% 5% 7% 21% 16% 35% 15% LEAF 0% 2% 3% 7% 18% 15% 33% 21%

10 WHERE CAN WE FIND THE NEXT PEV BUYERS? PEV sales strong in particular locations High income, high education, homeowners Sales of PHEVs and BEVs in slightly different ratios Market will grow faster in these locations than other areas for many years Likely repeat buyers with present households Used PEVs will enter market and broaden it Importance of social processes Social influence at workplaces, localized social network effects Social symbolic role of PEVs (and EVSEs) as future technology California policy Importance of HOV stickers Public infrastructure (free?) more important to market growth than evmt? Adjust CVRP to maximize benefit for given amount of money Open question: Can California market (ZEV mandate) create critical mass of models & sales?

11 WORKPLACE CHARGING

12 PAID WORKPLACE CHARGING

13 ALREADY SEEING CONGESTION IN WORKPLACE CHARGING

14 WORKPLACE CHARGING SURVEY RESPONSES 120% 100% Is Workplace Charging Available? (n=1424) Is Workplace Charging Free? 80% 60% 40% Yes (n=631) No (n=793) Both free and non free No Yes 20% 0% Toyota Plug-In Prius Chevy Volt Nissan Leaf Total

15 WORKPLACE CHARGING UTILIZATION

16 CHARGING FOR CHARGING AT WORK 120% Free Workplace Charging 120% Workplace Same Price As Home Electricity 100% 100% 80% more than 5 times a week 80% more than 5 times a week 60% 4-5 times a week 2-3 times a week 60% 4-5 times a week 2-3 times a week 1 time or less a week 1 time or less a week 40% Never 40% Never 20% 20% 0% Toyota Plug-In Prius Chevy Volt Nissan Leaf 0% Toyota Plug-In Prius Chevy Volt Nissan Leaf 120% 100% Workplace Double Price As Home Electricity Plug-in Prius Price Sensitivity 80% 60% 40% more than 5 times a week 4-5 times a week 2-3 times a week 1 time or less a week Never more than 5 times a week 4-5 times a week 2-3 times a week 1 time or less a week Never 20% 0% Toyota Plug-In Prius Chevy Volt Nissan Leaf 0 Free Workplace Charging Workplace Price Same as Home Workplace Price Double Home

17 NEW RESEARCH FINDINGS... (and questions) Sales are regional & show some degree of buyer self-selection How much influence do workplaces, social networks, etc. have on sales? The PEV market is growing at a steady rate What role do rebates, HOV access, free charging and other incentives have on sales? Low Power (Level 1 or 2) can satisfy 80% of workplace charging needs of current PEVs (results from both model & survey work) Free charging will increase number of chargers/charging events four-fold over charging that costs more than home electricity Workplace charging demand approx. doubles if home electricity Free charging, especially at work, may help grow PEV market but is unlikely to increase evmt We don t know degree to which free workplace charging helps sell cars Is our current goal PEV sales or evmt? What is the long term goal?

18 Thank you! Director: Dr. Tom Turrentine Program Director: Dahlia Garas Consumer Research Director: Dr. Ken Kurani

19 Scaling Locations to Number of Chargers in California. For an 80 Mile BEV, Approx. 1 Fast Charger/500 veh. Number of Chargers How Many Chargers for 1,000,000 Vehicles? Geographic Extent (Number of Charger Areas) Threshold in Charges Per Day

20 Declining Number of Fast Chargers Needed as Batteries Get Larger 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 10.81% 4.07% % of Statewide Vehicle Miles Possible with Different Sized Batteries. 334 QC Location Case. Survey Scaled. 1.72% 1.72% 8.62% 2.82% 8.73% 0.34% 7.10% 2.74% 11.56% 0.83% 0.20% 0.62% 3.23% 95.29% 1.95% 97.81% Unserved Unlikely 5-9 Fast Charges 4 Fast Charges 3 Fast Charges 2 Fast Charges 1 Fast Charge Work Home 75% 13.49% 8.28% 77.98% 69% BEV 80 BEV 80 Work BEV 100 BEV 200 BEV 300

21 BEV SALES BY MODEL 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Chevy Spark EV Rav4 EV Active E Smart ED Leaf Fit E Focus E imiev Model S 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13

22 PHEV SALES BY MODEL 16,000 14,000 12,000 Accord PHEV Fusion PHEV C-MAX Energi Prius Plug-In Volt 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13