Michigan Public Service Commission Electric Vehicle Pilot Discussion

Transcription

1 Michigan Public Service Commission Electric Vehicle Pilot Discussion Brett Smith Assistant Director, Manufacturing & Engineering Technology Valerie Sathe Brugeman Senior Project Manager, Transportation Systems February 20, 2018

2 Change: The Wave is Building 2

3 A Building Wave: The Headlines Germany's Bundesrat Resolves the End Of Internal Combustion Engine Passed a resolution to ban the internal combustion engine starting in 2030 Bloomberg New Energy Finance Forecasts: Electric vehicles to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040 China To Automakers: 'Make EVs, Or Die' By 2019 electric vehicles must account for approximately 10% of the maker s production, and the percentage will rise from there. Chinese battery producers tell suppliers to cut prices by percent this year. US cities seek combined purchase of 114,000 EVs Could be as much as $10 billion in purchases 3

4 Dropping In Volkswagen plans to leapfrog Tesla in electric car race Annual Sales of 2-3 million EVs by 2025 (20-25 percent of sales) projected investments in future technologies (will be ) in the double-digit billion range GM to introduce 20 BEVs by unique models in next 18 months; BEV and Fuel cells Ford announces Internal EV Team Team Edison to study and develop fully electric cars for Ford; redirects 1/3 of ICE development to electrification Tesla needs more capacity for Model Y CUV Need to build "possibly as many as 10 or 20" new factories to keep up with expected demand. In discussion with Chinese Government for new plant in China 4

5 EV Policy and Legislation

6 Aggressive Global Policy Targets Increase in highly ambitious EV sales targets by Very few enforcement mechanisms California and China are exceptions, as they have made the growth of the EV market a strategic priority Paris Agreement goals: to keep global warming below 2⁰C will require that EV represent at least 20% of road transport vehicles globally by 2030 (IEA, 2015) 6

7 Asia National Targets China 2019 New-energy vehicles (NEV) credit system TBD considering phase out of sales on traditional fuel vehicles India 2020 target of stock of 6 to 7 million PEV and hybrid vehicles 2030 target of only EV produced and sold in the country Japan: 2020 target of 40,000 FCEV (800,000 in 2030) 2030 India 2019 China 2020 Japan South Korea South Korea: 2020 target of EVs representing 30% annual sales EV sales targets 7

8 Europe National Targets Big shift away from diesel and gasoline-powered vehicles EU target: cut CO2 emissions from cars and vans by about a third between 2021 and Norway green tax system (polluter pays) 2030 Netherlands ZEV sales only 2030 Ireland - ZEV sales only 2040 France ZEV sales only 2040 United Kingdom ZEV sales only TBD - Germany considering a ban on ICE vehicles 2040 France UK 2025 Norway 2030 Netherlands Ireland?? Germany End of ICE-only vehicles sales 8

9 Europe City Approaches Paris 2017 Restricted Traffic Area (depending on vehicles emissions level) 2020 Will consider different parking prices based on emissions level 2024 Ban on diesel vehicles 2030 Ban on gasoline vehicles London 2008 Low Emission Zone 2017 Emissions Charge (T-charge) Ultra Low Emission Zone Copenhagen 2019 Ban on diesel vehicles 9

10 California Targets ZEV mandate Current mandate (2012) requires automakers to sell PHEV, BEV, and FCEV and beyond TBD Executive Order B (2012) Target of 1.5 million ZEVs in CA by 2025 SB 32 (Sept 2016) GHG reduction, estimated to require EVs make up 30% of new car sales and have 4.2 million EVs on the road by CLEAN CARS 2040 ACT (introduced Jan 2018) All new vehicle registrations in California must be ZEV starting with 2040 Current CA ZEV mandate Model Year Credit Percentage Requirement Sales (Approximate Requirement) % 2.5% % 8% 10

11 Other State Initiatives Related to California Section 177 States (states that follow California s fuel emission standards) ZEV States (states that follow California s fuel emission standards and ZEV mandate) 11

12 California Incentives Complex, Localized, and Evolving Clean Vehicle Rebate Project Rebates of $5,000 for FCEVs, $2,500 for BEVs, and $1,500 for PHEVs (purchase or 30+ months lease) Additional $2,000 rebate for low- and moderate-income consumers Income cap prohibiting rebates for higher-income consumers Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program - Car Scrap High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Lane Access 12

13 Electric Vehicle Concepts, Production, and Releases 13

14 We will invest $11 billion to develop EVs by The only question is will the customers be there with us?" Bill Ford, NAIAS

15 U.S. Electrified Light Vehicle Sales and Take Rate Electrified LV Sales % of LV Sales Real Gasoline price U.S. Electrified Sales (000 s) % Percent of LV Sales (%) Real Gas Price ($) Note: Electrified vehicles consist of BEV, HEV and PHEV Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, HybridCars.com and CAR Research 15

16 Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2017 CUV 34.4% Pickup Small Car 15.0% 16.0% Middle Car 11.4% SUV 8.1% Van Luxury Car 5.4% 5.2% Electrified 3.3% Large Car 1.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, HybridCars.com and CAR Research 16

17 Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change 2017 vs Total -1.9% Electrified 11.7% CUV SUV Pickup 4.5% 4.5% 5.8% Small Car Van Luxury Car Large Car -8.4% -8.5% -9.5% -10.2% Middle Car -18.6% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, HybridCars.com and CAR Research 17

18 Electric Vehicle Boom Models by Style and Range Available Though 2020 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 18

19 Guiding Principles Rate design Encouraging charging at off-peak times with lower rates Impact on the electrical grid Location of chargers, utility deployment of charging infrastructure Customer education Direct from utility or working through vehicle dealers Role of the utility in infrastructure deployment/cost recovery Cost-benefit analysis, customer benefits, cost recovery from customers 19

20 THANK YOU Brett Smith Assistant Director, MET Co-Director, Conference Strategy Valerie Sathe Brugeman Senior Project Manager, Transportation Systems Center for Automotive Research 3005 Boardwalk Drive, Suite 200 Ann Arbor, MI