CVRP Update, Electric Vehicle Adoption, and Select Analytical Highlights

Transcription

1 CVRP Update, Electric Vehicle Adoption, and Select Analytical Highlights SANDAG Energy Working Group, 24 Jan. 2019, San Diego CA Brett Williams, PhD Senior Principal Advisor, EV Programs, CSE Nicholas Pallonetti Analyst With thanks to: Jackie Vogel, John Anderson and others at CSE

2 Outline Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) Overview, Rebate Now, and Funding Available Public Fleets Stackable Incentives with CVRP California & San Diego EV Market Update EVs Consumers Rebated Select Evaluation Highlights Behaviors Influenced Market Implications Watch This Space CALeVIP EUEC Summary 2

3 Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) 3

4 CVRP: Overview, Rebate Now, Funding 4

5 Statewide Electric Vehicle Rebates Fuel-Cell EVs All-Battery EVs Plug-in Hybrid EVs Zero-Emission Motorcycles 5 $5,000 $2,500 $2,500 (i3 REx) $1,500 $900 e-miles 20 only; Consumer income cap and increased rebates for lowerincome households

6 Other Statewide EV Rebates (as of Jan. 2019) Fuel-Cell EVs All-Battery EVs Plug-in Hybrid EVs $5,000 $1,500 $5,000 $2,500 $2,500 (i3 REx) $1,500 $1,500 BEVx only: $1,500 e-miles 200 $2, $1,500 < 120 $ $1,000 < 45 $500 e-miles 120 $2, $1, $1,100 < 20 $500 Zero-Emission Motorcycles $900 $450 6 e-miles 20 only; Consumer income cap and increased rebates for lowerincome households MSRP $50k, no fleet rebates MSRP $60k FCEVs, $50k BEVs, PHEVs; dealer assignment; $150 dealer incentive MSRP > $60k = $500 max.; point-of-sale via dealer

7 Other Statewide EV Rebates: Oct 2019 Designs Fuel-Cell EVs All-Battery EVs Plug-in Hybrid EVs $5,000 $2,500 $5,000 $2,500 $2,500 (i3 REx) $1,500 $2, kwh $2,500 <10 kwh $1,500 e-miles 175 $3, $2,000 < 100 $ $2,000 < 40 $500 e-miles 120 $2, $1, $1,100 < 20 $500 Zero-Emission Motorcycles $900 $750 7 e-miles 20 only; Consumer income cap and increased rebates MSRP $60k = $1,000 max., no fleet rebates MSRP $60k only; dealer assignment; $150 dealer incentive ($300 previous) MSRP > $60k = $500 max.; point-of-sale

8 Increased Rebate Amounts for Low-to-Moderate-Income (LMI) Consumers Additional $2,000 available to consumers with household incomes 300% of the federal poverty level (FPL) Prioritization of rebate payments to low income consumers Persons in household Max Income 1 $36,420 2 $49,380 3 $62,340 4 $75,300 5 $88,260 6 $101,220 7 $114,180 8 $127,140 8

9 CVRP Eligibility Requirements (legislative) November 2016 present Vehicle requirement: Electric range Must be 20 e-mi Consumer Income Cap*: Single filers $150,000 Head-of-household filers $204,000 Joint filers $300,000 *Income cap is deferred for consumers of fuel-cell electric vehicles 9

10 Rebate Now Preapproval Pilot in San Diego County Apply online Get pre-approved Go to eligible dealer in San Diego County Receive discount at time of sale Dealer finishes application and gets reimbursed electronically 10

11 Funding Availability (as of 1/22/2019) LMI Increased rebate applications are prioritized and will not be subject to a waitlist, even if general funding runs out. 11

12 CVRP: Public Fleets 12

13 Public Fleet Rebate Program Features Public agencies include Local, State, and Tribal government entities: Eligible for up to 30 rebates annually Single application for multiple vehicles Can reserve rebates up to 18 months in advance Or apply up to 18 months after delivery (all of CVRP) 13

14 Increased Rebate for Public Fleets in Disadvantaged Communities PHEV FCEV BEV 14 14

15 What are Disadvantaged Communities (DACs)? Census tracts with high levels of exposure and vulnerability to pollution Census tract scores come from CalEnviroScreen Pollution burden: Air pollution; pesticide use; water contamination and threats; traffic density; cleanup and solid-waste sites; and hazardous waste. Population characteristics: Poverty; unemployment; linguistic isolation; educational attainment; asthma ER visits; low birth weights; and the prevalence of children and the elderly. California Senate Bill 535 (2012) Mandates 10% of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) is invested in DACs California Assembly Bill 1550 (2016) Increased DAC investment to 25% 15

16 Rebates by Census Tract CVRP Rebates Overall CVRP Rebates in DACs 16 Image: 1/2019

17 CVRP Transparency Tools Interactive data dashboards and downloads: Rebate statistics Rebate maps Survey results 17

18 Rebate Statistics: Public Fleets in DACs 18 Image: 1/2019

19 Stackable Incentives 19

20 Create Lease a new EV for less than $25/month meme in San Diego? 20 AA analysis of October 2018 lease deals in the San Joaquin Valley, after taking into account the federal tax benefit, state rebate (CVRP) and regional rebate (Drive Clean)

21 CA & San Diego EV Market Update March 2010 September 2018 (unless stated otherwise) 21

22 EVs Sold, EVs Rebated 22

23 Getting Up to Speed What electric cars are available? How are they selling? 23

24 Electric Vehicle Choices: Major 2018 Models Plug-in hybrid EVs All-battery EVs Fuel-cell EVs 24

25 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Plug-in hybrid EVs Depending on the model Range: miles total 9 97 mi. on electricity plus on gasoline If forget to charge, acts like efficient gasoline hybrid If charge frequently driving can be electric U.S. avg. commute: ~12 mi. U.S. avg. daily driving: ~32 mi. MSRP: $24,950 $184, As of 1/2019. Range specs: FuelEconomy.gov Daily driving: Federal Highway Administration, 2017 National Household Travel Survey ( Average commute: AAA Foundation, American Driving Survey (

26 All-Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Depending on the model Range: electric miles 0 to 60 mph: 2.5 ~8.9 seconds Full torque when stoplight turns green No shifting, smooth acceleration to maximum speed MSRP: $29,990 $140,000 All-battery EVs 26 As of 1/2019. Range specs: FuelEconomy.gov 0-60 times:

27 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Cumulative Rebates Cumulative Rebates by Automaker (thru Q3 2018) Chevrolet Tesla Other Brand Nissan Toyota Ford FIAT 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Application Quarter 27 Issued rebates and approved applications

28 California: Cumulative PHEV, BEV, FCEV Registrations EV registrations , , , , , , , (Q1 Q3) 102,261 Total 461,583 From Q Q3 2018, EVs were 6.7% of new light-duty vehicle sales FCEV BEVx PHEV BEV 500, , , , , Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2018, All rights reserved. Note: Some PHEV models could not be identified in the registration data

29 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Cumulative CVRP Rebates (through September 2018) CVRP Rebates , , , , , , , (thru Sep.) 50,320 Total 277,809 Other FCEV PHEV BEV 500, , , , , Through September 2018, issued and approved applications

30 CVRP Rebate Volumes Are Increasing CVRP Rebates , , , , , , , (thru Sep.) 50,320 Total 277, Through September 2018, issued and approved applications

31 San Diego: Cumulative PHEV, BEV, FCEV Registrations EV registrations , , , , , , , (Q1 Q3) 7,928 Total 34,836 From Q Q3 2018, EVs were 6.1% of new light-duty vehicle sales FCEV BEVx PHEV BEV 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2018, All rights reserved. Note: Some PHEV models could not be identified in the registration data

32 New Registrations by Vehicle Category (thru Q3 2018) 100% 90% 1% 0% 3% 3% 80% 70% 43% 39% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 53% 57% FCEV BEVx PHEV BEV 0% Statewide (N = 461,583) San Diego (N = 34,836) 32 Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2018, All rights reserved. Note: Some PHEV models could not be identified in the registration data

33 San Diego: Registrations (thru 2016) Chevrolet Tesla Ford Nissan Toyota smart FIAT BMW Volkswagen Other PHEV BEVx BEV FCEV 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 33 Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2017, All rights reserved.

34 San Diego: Registrations (thru Q3 2018) Tesla Chevrolet Ford Nissan Toyota BMW FIAT BEV PHEV BEVx FCEV smart Honda Other 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 34 Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2018, All rights reserved. Note: Some PHEV models could not be identified in the registration data.

35 New Registrations by County: Absolute and Share of Market Registrations (thru Q3 2018) LDV Market Share (Q Q3 2018) 4,311 4% 68,478 18% 124,610 35,210 6% 6% 35 Calculated from content supplied by R.L. Polk & Co.: Copyright 2018, All rights reserved. Note: Some PHEV models could not be identified in the registration data

36 San Diego County Rebates by Census Tract Image: 1/2019 (data thru August, 2018). CVRP Interactive Map.

37 Consumers Rebated 37

38 Data Summary (Rebates to Individuals Only) Total Vehicle Purchase/ Lease Dates Dec May 2017 July 2014 October 2017 May 2015 June 2017 March 2017 Nov Dec Nov Survey Responses (total n)* Program Population (N) 40,438 2, , ,367 5,754 1,583 3, , * Weighted to represent the program population along the dimensions of vehicle category, vehicle model, buy vs. lease, and county (using raking method)

39 Data Summary (Rebates to Individuals Only) CVRP Consumer Survey CVRP Program Population (Application Data) Participants survey was weighted to represent* Edition Edition N = 91,081 N = 45, Edition PHEVs and BEVs FCEVs N = 46,839 N = 1,749 total N = 48,588 Note: Results before the Income Cap (3/2016) are conservative. Total Responses n = 19,460 n = 11,611 n = 8,957 n = 410 n = 40,438 Vehicle Purchase/ Leases Sep 2012 May 2015 April 2015 May 2016 May 2016 May 2017 Dec 2010 May 2017 PHEV and BEVs: Sep 2012 May 2017 FCEVs: Dec 2010 May 2017 N = 185, * Along the dimensions of vehicle model, county, and buy vs. lease (raking method)

40 Majority Characteristics Vehicle purchase intenders (CHTS 2012) CVRP Consumer Survey edition All PHEV BEV White/ Caucasian 76% 56% 58% 54% Male 49% 72% 71% 73% Bachelor s degree 66% 79% 76% 81% Detached homes 75% 77% 75% 78% years old < $150k HH Income 52% 50% 48% 51% 79% 80% 83% 77% 40 CVRP Consumer Survey: edition, purchase dates Nov 2016 May 2017, weighted n = 5,697 California Household Travel Survey, 2012: weighted, n = 42,431

41 Majority Characteristics: Trend 100% 80% 75% 74% 72% 85% 83% 81% 81% 80% 77% 75% 66% 60% 49% 56% 53% 51% 52% 40% 20% 0% Male Bachelor s degree Detached homes years old Vehicle purchase intenders (CHTS 2012) 41 CVRP Consumer Survey: edition, weighted, n = 19,460; edition, weighted, n = 11,611; edition, weighted, n = 9,367 California Household Travel Survey, 2012: weighted, n = 42,431

42 Majority Characteristics: Trend 100% 80% 75% 74% 72% 85% 83% 81% 81% 80% 77% 75% 66% 60% 49% 56% 53% 51% 52% 40% 20% 0% Male Bachelor s degree Detached homes years old Vehicle purchase intenders (CHTS 2012) 42 CVRP Consumer Survey: edition, weighted, n = 19,460; edition, weighted, n = 11,611; edition, weighted, n = 9,367 California Household Travel Survey, 2012: weighted, n = 42,431

43 Respondents by Household Income 80% 60% 59% 40% 39% 43% 41% 45% 43% 31% 30% 20% 25% 20% 19% 19% 20% 0% 14% 13% 12% 10% 6% 6% 5% <$100k $ k $ k > $300k CVRP ( ) MOR-EV ( ) CHEAPR ( ) Drive Clean NY (2017) U.S. new-car buyers (MY2015)* 43 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants * Personal correspondence, Prof. Bunch (UCD)

44 Respondents by Household Income: Inappropriate Comparisons 80% 72% 60% 59% 40% 39% 43% 41% 45% 43% 31% 30% 20% 25% 20% 21% 19% 19% 20% 0% 14% 13% 12% 10% 6% 7% 6% 5% <$100k $ k $ k > $300k CVRP ( ) MOR-EV ( ) CHEAPR ( ) Drive Clean NY (2017) U.S. new-car buyers (MY2015)* U.S. population (2016)** 44 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants * Personal correspondence, Prof. Bunch (UCD) ** U.S. Census Data

45 Presently, do you charge your plug-in electric vehicle at home? 60% 53% 50% 48% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18% 22% 15% 19% 12% 10% 2% 2% 0% Yes, I'm using a 120V outlet (typical household outlet) Yes, I'm using a Level 2 (240V) charging station Yes, I'm using a 240V outlet (e.g., dryer outlet) No, I'm not charging at home Yes, I'm using a Level 1 (120V) charging station California San Diego 45 CVRP Consumer Survey, edition, weighted, n = 9,367 Question n = 8,865

46 Did you have to make any electrical upgrades to be able to charge your vehicle at home? 90% 80% 80% 78% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 20% 22% 0% No Yes California San Diego 46 CVRP Consumer Survey, edition, weighted, n = 9,367 Question n = 5,941

47 Select Evaluation Highlights 47

48 Evaluation Reports, analysis, infographics & presentations 48

49 Behaviors Influenced 49

50 100% Do EVs get used? Replaced a vehicle with their rebated clean vehicle 80% 71% 76% 79% 81% 60% 40% 20% 0% CVRP ( ) MOR-EV ( ) CHEAPR ( ) Drive Clean NY (2017) 50 Datasets: 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants

51 Do EVs get used?: Trend 100% Replaced a vehicle with their rebated EV 80% 60% 65% 76% 78% 40% 20% 0% CVRP Consumer Survey edition: weighted n=19,460, question n=19, edition: weighted n=11,611, question n=11, edition: weighted n=9,367, question n=9,342

52 Do EVs get used?: by Tech Type 100% Replaced a vehicle with their rebated EV 80% 60% 78% 81% 83% 84% 66% 72% 65% 71% CVRP ( ) MOR-EV ( ) 40% CHEAPR ( ) 20% Drive Clean NY (2017) 0% Plug-in Hybrid EVs Battery EVs 52 Datasets: 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants

53 What vehicles have rebates helped replace? Drive Clean NY (2017) CHEAPR ( ) MOR-EV ( ) CVRP ( ) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1999 or earlier Datasets: 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants

54 What vehicle types have rebates helped replace? Current Program (after Nov. 2016) 54 CVRP Consumer Survey edition, trimmed to start November 2016, PEV respondents only, weighted, n=4,695

55 Market Implications 55

56 Consumers Say the Rebate is Important How important was the state rebate in making it possible for you to acquire your clean vehicle? 100% 90% 86% 96% 94% 80% 60% 40% Moderately Important Very Important Extremely Important 20% 0% CVRP ( ) MOR-EV ( ) CHEAPR ( ) Drive Clean NY (2017) 56 Datasets: 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants

57 100% Consumers Say the Rebate is Essential Would not have purchased/leased their EV without rebate 75% 63% CVRP ( ) 50% 52% 41% 53% MOR-EV ( ) CHEAPR ( ) Drive Clean NY (2017) 25% 0% 57 Datasets: 44,623 total survey respondents weighted to represent 196,641 participants

58 Rebate Essentiality: Trend Would not have purchased/leased their EV without rebate 100% 80% 60% 46% 56% 58% Rebate Essential 40% 20% 0% CVRP Consumer Survey edition: weighted n=19,460, question n= 19, edition: weighted n=11,611, question n= 11, edition: weighted n=9,367, question n=9,261

59 Rebate essentiality is growing; phase-out appears premature Rebate Essentiality Common paradigm 100% 80% 60% 40% 46% 56% 58% 20% 0% CVRP Consumer Survey edition: weighted n=19,460, question n= 19, edition: weighted n=11,611, question n= 11, edition: weighted n=9,367, question n=9,261

60 Percent of MOR-EV Respondents that are Rebate Essential by Base MSRP 100% 80% As MSRP goes up, rebate influence diminishes $1,000 max rebate 60% 40% 20% 47% 50% 44% 35% 30% 21% 11% 0% 60 * = small sample size (n < 30) in bin. MOR-EV Survey, : n = 2,549 total respondents weighted to represent 5,754 participants

61 Targeting Rebate-Essential Consumers: Odds-Increasing Factors for PHEV and BEV Consumers Central (vs. Bay Area) X-Standardized Rebate Essentiality Odds Ratios Central (vs. South) Lower price Lower-income Increased Rebate Difficulty finding information online More importance: carpool Younger age PHEV BEV Did not hear about CVRP from the dealer More importance: save on fuel costs Postgraduate degree (vs. Associate degree 61 All are significant factors (p < 0.05)

62 Watch This Space CALeVIP & EUEC 62

63 CA Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Project (CALeVIP) $39 million currently available Up to $200 million in future funding for various projects Example: Southern California Incentive Project (SCIP) Counties: Los Angeles; Orange; Riverside; and San Bernardino Apply before: Eligible costs are incurred to reserve funds Equipment; labor and materials; utility service orders; planning and engineering, etc. Rebate funds are exhausted (first come, first serve) Max Rebate Amounts for Eligible Costs: $40,000 for replacement installations and make-ready sites $70,000 for installations at new sites and stub-out sites $80,000 for sites within DACs, regardless of installation type 63

64 Energy, Utility & Environment Conference EV Charging and the Vehicle Purchase Process: Lessons Learned from Consumers This presentation will summarize consumer perceptions of, and access to, charging during to their vehicle purchase/lease process. Charging topics to be explored include: information gathering, decision factors, purchase enablers, EV rates, and access to home and WPC charging. 64

65 Wrap Up 65

66 Select Takeaways Plug-in EV purchases/leases in SD are eligible for $1,500 (PHEV) or $2,500 (BEV) rebates $3,500 or $4,500 for lower-income consumers and public fleets in DACs Rebate Now pilot allows pre-approval to apply discount at the time of sale Funds are available, low-income prioritized Continual growth of EV product choices Recent unprecedented volume There are differences between EV and new-car consumers, but perhaps not as big as you might think Incentives are helping EVs replace older, more polluting vehicles at impactful rates across four states Remain important, if not essential to a large and growing portion of the market, particularly as it expands into the mainstream 66

67 How can we help? CleanVehicleRebate.org