Automotive Outlook: Long Term Impacts on U.S. Auto Sales. Kim Hill Research Director. September 29, 2014
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1 Automotive Outlook: Long Term Impacts on U.S. Auto Sales Kim Hill Research Director September 29, 2014
2 Agenda Current sales Factors that affect sales The current industry A look forward
3 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Percent Change YTD Through August: 2014 vs Total 5.1% Light Trucks 9.4% Passenger Cars 0.9% Source: Automo,ve News; CAR Research
4 GM Ford Toyota Fiat-Chrysler Honda Nissan Hyundai-Kia Detroit Three at 43.6% in August 2014 U.S. Market Share: August 2014 & YTD Total 9.3% 10.5% 8.6% 8.5% 8.1% 7.9% 17.7% 17.2% 15.2% 14.0% 14.5% 15.5% 12.4% 12.5% YTD % 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
5 Total SUV CUV Van Pickup Luxury Car Small Car Middle Car Electrified Large Car Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change August YTD: 2014 vs % - 3.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.2% 4.9% 12.9% 11.0% 10.7% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, HybridCars.com and CAR Research
6 CUV Small Car Middle Car Pickup SUV Luxury Car Van Electrified Large Car Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicles Sales August YTD % 6.3% 5.5% 3.6% 2.0% 13.0% 18.8% 17.2% 26.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, HybridCars.com and CAR Research
7 Long Term Economic Indicators That Affect Sales Diminishing labor force par,cipa,on Increasing household financial burdens Household budget outlays are shicing Motor vehicle price is rising Full-,me employment drives up auto sales Household wealth effect
8 Labor Force Participation Rate Is Falling Even After the Last Two Recessions Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force ParVcipaVon Rate 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% Women s par,cipa,on In labor force Economy Boomed. GDP grew 3.8% per year Lowest since 1978 Source: Current Popula,on Survey, Bureau of Labor Sta,s,cs
9 Younger Generations Are Facing Tougher Challenges Unemployment Rate by Age January 2000 June 2014 Unemployment Rate (%) Source: Current Popula,on Survey, Bureau of Labor Sta,s,cs
10 And Households Are Carrying More Debt Household Non-Mortgage Aggregate Debt 1Q Q 2014 Student Loans Auto Loans Home Equity Loans Credit Card Other Total 1,200 3,500 1,000 3,000 Debt in Billion $ ,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total in Billion $ - 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
11 Household Budget Outlays Are Shifting To Non Auto Categories Monthly Expenditure Per Household By Selected Products and Services, Real U.S. Dollars (Chained 2009 $) 2,500 2,000 1,211 1, , MV & Parts Gasoline and Fuel MV Service Consumer Electronics Telephone and Internet Health Care Source: CAR research based on Personal Consump,on Expenditures by Type of Product, Bureau of Economic Analysis
12 Increase in Full-Time Employment Drives Up Sales October 1996 June New Auto Sales Full- Time Employment 125 Light Vehicle Sales (millions SAAR) Full- Time Employment (million) Source: BEA; BLS
13 Growth in Household Wealth Drives Up Auto Sales January 2000 April 2014 Light Vehicle Sales (millions SAAR) Auto Sales Geo. Mean of S&P and Home Equity Geometric Mean Value S&P and Home Equity Source: BEA; Yahoo Finance; Na,onal Composite Home Price Index for the United States
14 Beware of the Next Downturn! U.S. Monthly LV Sales and Automotive Business Cycle 22 Monthly Sales 12- Month Moving Average U.S. Monthly LV Sales (million SAAR) months 124 months Dot Com Bubble Fed Rescue 102 months ( Collapse of Stock Market and Student Loan 12 Oil Embargo S&L Crisis 10 And Fed Pullback Bubble?) Oil Shock and a Fed Pullback Housing Bubble Source: BEA
15 Monthly Sales (Millions) U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales and SAAR August 2012 August 2014 SALES SAAR Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug Monthly SAAR Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
16 Are Sales Back? Billion $ (2005 dollar) In Spending (Billion of 2009 $) In Units Million Units Source: BEA, Table 7.2.6B. Real Motor Vehicle Output, Chained Dollars
17 Motor Vehicle & Parts Manufacturing Employment Michigan Indiana State Level 400, , , , , , ,000 50, ,130, , , ,100 47% change 64% change 53% change 50% change 727, ,300 90,100 74, May- 14 Jun- 14 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 U.S. Source: BLS, U.S. DOL, Statistics Canada
18 Percent of U.S. Market Sales 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 29.4% 24.7% 15.6% 8.7% 6.4% 4% 1.8% Big 7 Monthly U.S. Market Share YTD (August) Ford GM Chrysler Honda Hyundai- Kia Nissan Toyota 17.7% 15.2% 14.5% 12.4% 9.3% 8.6% 8.1% Source: Automotive News; CAR Research
19 U.S. Sales Forecast: Million % % % % % Source: CAR Research, Aug
20 U.S. Vehicle Production Forecast: Million % 34.5% % 19.5% % Source: CAR Research, Aug
21 North American Production Forecast: Million % % % % % Source: CAR Research, Aug
22 Footprint of the North American Automotive Industry Almost 500 automaker facilives, and over 7500 supplier facilives in the United States Source: CAR / BLS 2012
23 U.S. Motor Vehicle Related Value Chain Exceeds $1 Trillion Suppliers Auto Makers Dealers Finance & Insurance $307 Bil. $119 Bil. $37 Bil. $80 Bil. Fuels and Lubricants $343 Bil. Leasing, Rental, and Parking $62 Bil. Repair Service & Ahermarket $213 Bil. Resale $117 Bil. Salvage $4 Bil. Source: NADA, BEA, U.S. Census, R.L. Polk, CAR Research, 2007 eslmates
24 AutomoVve- related Taxes and Fees Sales Tax Revenues New Vehicles (New) Used Vehicles (Fleet) Parts/Services (Fleet) Business Taxes Manufacturers (New) Dealerships (New/Fleet) Use Tax Revenues Fuel (Fleet) Title/Registra,on (Fleet) Driver s License (Fleet) Personal Income Taxes Automakers (New) Suppliers (New) Dealerships (New/Fleet)
25 What is Auto Manufacturing? Automotive Employment and Establishments 120, ,000 80,000 Engineering Services TOTAL Michigan AutomoVve Industry: 250,000 Employees 4,500 Establishments Other Parts Employment 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 CoaVng, Engraving & Heat TreaVng Machine Shops & Threaded Product Forging & Stamping Nonferrous Ferrous Tool/Die/Mold/ Jig/Fixture Metal Stamping SeaVng/Interior Trim Brake Systems Steering/Suspension Electric Equipment Powertrain Gasoline Engine/Parts Assembly Fabricated Metal Foundaries Metalworking Machinery Motor Vehicle Parts & Components Motor Vehicle Manufacturing 25 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW
26 2013 Per Vehicle Profits North America 3,000 2,500 2,000 $2,307 $2,844 1,500 $1,323 $1,254 $1,225 1, GM Ford Chrysler Honda Toyota EBIT or automolve operalng income per vehicle sold. Global average for Chrysler figure. Honda also excludes motorcycle, finance, and power products.
27 Announced North American Automaker Investments 2013 and Current 2014 Total North America 2014: $7.9 billion 2013: $8.8 billion Canada 2014: $0 billion 2013: $0.9 billion United States 2014: $4.5 billion 2013: $6.4 billion Mexico 2014: $3.4 billion 2013: $1.5 billion Source: CAR Research, Book of Deals
28 The New Big Three - Technology Shock! New Jobs? New Rules? New Players? Materials Powertrain Source: BLM Connectivity
29 Market Share of U.S. Electrified Light Vehicle Sales and Selected OEM Share of U.S. Electrified Sales Electrified Total Toyota Ford Hyundai- Kia Nissan GM Honda Volkswagen 3.9% 3.6% 5.6% 6.2% 3.5% 6.0% 8.4% 5.3% 3.1% 4.8% 1.1% 0.76% August YTD 2014 vs % 15.9% 59.6% 55.9% 2013 YTD 2014 YTD 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Note: Electrified Light Vehicles consist of BEV, HEV and PHEV Source: Ward s Automotive Reports; HybridCars.com; CAR Research
30 Key Material Trends in Next 10 Years - All technology pathways anticipate light-weighting Increased use of ultra high strength steel for structural components around the safety cage to prevent intrusion Aluminum use for chassis and exterior panels is increasing Ford F- 150 Fiber reinforced plas,cs (glass and carbon) for structural components are s,ll several years away from high volume produc,on Joining complexity: more laser welding, fasteners and adhesives Structural Adhesive 30
31 Growth in Electronics (>40%) An average vehicle contains around 60 microprocessors to run electric content four,mes as many as a decade ago. More than 300 million lines of socware code run a typical vehicle s sophis,cated computer network.
32 32 Intelligent Mobility
33 U.S. Auto Parts Manufacturing % of Capacity Utilization Jan- 07 Apr- 07 Jul- 07 Oct- 07 Jan- 08 Apr- 08 Jul- 08 Oct- 08 Jan- 09 Apr- 09 Jul- 09 Oct- 09 Jan- 10 Apr- 10 Jul- 10 Oct- 10 Jan- 11 Apr- 11 Jul- 11 Oct- 11 Jan- 12 Apr- 12 Jul- 12 Oct- 12 Jan- 13 Apr- 13 Jul- 13 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2013
34 Generally, All Is Good, But Keep An Eye On These Labor force par,cipa,on rates Household financial burdens ShiCing household budget outlays Full-,me employment Household wealth effect External shocks Student debt GDP growth Gas prices Interest rates
35 Thank You Kim Hill
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