Outlook for Franchised New Car Dealers

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2 Outlook for Franchised New Car Dealers Fourteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2007 Paul Taylor, Ph.D., Chief Economist National Automobile Dealers Association, McLean, VA

3 Two Challenges/Opportunities facing Dealerships: 1. Rising Average Retail Gasoline/Diesel Price Jun-96 Nov-96 Apr-97 Sep-97 Feb-98 Jul-98 Dec-98 May-99 Oct-99 Mar-00 Aug-00 Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr Self Service cents per Gallon Incl. Taxes 0.9 Source: Energy Information Administration Diesel Gasoline

4 2. Rising Interest Rates 10% 9% Prime Rate 8.25 percent Apr, 2007 Percentage 8% 7% 6% 5% 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Unemployment Rate 6.29 percent Apr, % 4.6 percent Apr, % Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 Average Home Price (Thousand $) Home Equity Loans (Billion $) Average Home Price Trend vs. Outstanding Home Equity Loans M1 1999M6 1999M M4 2000M9 2001M2 2001M7 2001M M5 2002M M3 2003M8 2004M1 2004M6 2004M M4 2005M9 2006M2 2006M7 2006M12 Average Home Price Home Equity Loans Outstanding Sources: National Association of Realtors and FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile

6 U.S. Households: Potential and Realized Cash from Home Equity Extraction $1,500 18% $1,300 16% Billion $ $1,100 $900 $700 $500 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% Percent of Disposable Income $300 2% $ % Free Cash From Home Equity Free Equity Cash as % of Disposable Income Source: Federal Reserve Board, Divisions of Research, Statistics & Monetary Affairs

7 Price Index of New One-Family Houses Sold Index Value-1996=100 (Includes Lot) Northeast Midwest South West Index value Source: U.S. Census Bureau 7

8 Licensed Drivers 205,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 Total U.S. Licensed Drivers: Rising at a More Modest Rate Recently Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration

9 World Production of Crude Oil, NGPL & Other Liquids vs. World Vehicles in Operation 90, Thousand Barrels per day 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65, Millions 60, World Oil Production World Vehicles in Operation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Ward s Automotive Group

10 225 U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Stocks U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Stocks vs. Gasoline Prices M1 1990M9 1991M5 1992M1 1992M9 1993M5 1994M1 1994M9 1995M5 1996M1 1996M9 1997M5 1998M1 1998M9 1999M5 2000M1 2000M9 2001M5 2002M1 2002M9 2003M5 2004M1 2004M9 2005M5 2006M1 2006M9 Million Barrels Cents per Gallon 0 Finished Gasoline Stocks Retail Gasoline Price Record High Price (Regular) Source: U.S. Department of Energy Monthly Energy Review, EIA

11 The Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Index 160 Gulf War Iraq War 140 Consumer Confidence Inde '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 Source: Conference Board 11

12 NADA Dealer Optimism Index Leading Indicator of New-Vehicle Sales Optimism NADA Index Measure Sales III 1982 III 1987 III 1992 III 1997 III 2002 III 2007 Source: NADA Industry Analysis

13 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: 16.5 Million Units in 2006 and near 16.5 Million Units likely in Lt. Trucks Cars (Est.) Millions of Units Source: NADA Industry Analysis

14 Crossovers, Small and Large Cars had Sales Growth Percentage Sales Growth in Full-Year 2006 Crossover Utility Vehicles Small Cars Large Cars Midsize Cars Luxury Cars Minivans, Vans Pickups Truck-based SUVs Full Year 2006 Full Year % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Source: Ward s Automotive 14

15 Crossovers and Small Cars are the only Categories with Sales Growth, Year-to-Date April 2007 Crossover Utility Vehicles Small Cars Luxury Cars Pickups Midsize Cars Truck-based SUVs Minivans, Vans Large Cars YTD Apr 2007 YTD Apr % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Ward s Automotive 15

16 Source: R.L. Polk Median Vehicle Age Moving Higher Cars Trucks Median vehicle age in years

17 Light Vehicle Market Share Percentages By Major Manufacturer Full Year 2005 Full Year 2006 YTD April 2007 Percentage GM Ford Toyota Chrysler Honda Nissan Source: NADA Industry Analysis 17

18 U.S. Household Net Financial Assets $ Trillions $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Net Household Wealth = Total Financial Assets - Total Liabilities (excludes home equity but includes all mortgage debt) Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data, Z.l., Table L

19 Manufacturer Incentives: Lower in 2007 Thus Far, through April Exception is the Euro-badged Vehicles $2,342 Industry $1,750 Korean Apr-07 Dec-06 Dec-05 Dec-04 Japanese $1,192 European Domestic $3,139 $3,147 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 Source: Edmunds.com

20 AuctionNet Wholesale Used SUV Prices and Gas Prices Ward s s SUV and Pickup Segments $19,000 $3.50 $18,000 $17,000 $16,000 $3.00 $2.50 Average Pri $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price 20 SUV PICKUP Gas Price Gas Pric

21 $15,000 AuctionNet Average Wholesale Used Vehicle Price and Smoothed Trend (Red Line) What will $3 Plus Gas and Higher New Car Incentives Do? $14,500 $14,000 $13,500 Average Price $13,000 $12,500 $12,000 Avg. Wholesale Price $11,500 Based on 9 million transactions $11,000 $10,500 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Source: N.A.D.A. Analytical Services and NAAA AuctionNet 21

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