Company. Jonathan Smoke Remarketing Big Picture 2017 and Beyond
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2 Company Jonathan Smoke Remarketing Big Picture 2017 and Beyond
3 Economic Expansion Continues REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (SAAR) % GROWTH BY QUARTER Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis
4 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Consumer Confidence Strong Consumer Confidence Index (Index 1985=100, SA) Plans to Buy Auto in 6 Months (% SA) Source: The Conference Board; Moody s Analytics
5 % Lending Robust and Healthy Consumer Credit Defaults Auto Loan First Mortgage Bankcard /30/04 4/30/05 4/30/06 4/30/07 4/30/08 4/30/09 4/30/10 4/30/11 4/30/12 4/30/13 4/30/14 4/30/15 4/30/16 4/30/17 Source: S&P Experian Credit Default Indices; Bloomberg
6 1/30/04 4/30/04 7/31/04 10/31/04 1/31/05 4/30/05 7/31/05 10/31/05 1/31/06 4/30/06 7/31/06 10/31/06 1/31/07 4/30/07 7/31/07 10/31/07 1/31/08 4/30/08 7/31/08 10/31/08 1/31/09 4/30/09 7/31/09 10/31/09 1/31/10 4/30/10 7/31/10 10/31/10 1/31/11 4/30/11 7/31/11 10/31/11 1/31/12 4/30/12 7/31/12 10/31/12 1/31/13 4/30/13 7/31/13 10/31/13 1/31/14 4/30/14 7/31/14 10/31/14 1/31/15 4/30/15 7/31/15 10/31/15 1/31/16 4/30/16 7/31/16 10/31/16 1/31/17 4/30/17 7/31/17 % Interest Rates Have Been Favorable New Auto Loan Rates 60 Month 48 Month Source: Bankrate.com; Bloomberg
7 Cost Advantage of Leasing Down Source: Dealertrack; Cox Automotive
8 2012_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _05 Yet Leasing Remains Resilient 35.0% 32.4% 30.0% 25.0% 28.8% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: Polk Insight
9 Quarterly New Lt. Vehicle SAAR (Millions) Post Peak New Vehicle Part of Cycle Source: BEA; Recessions (shaded) defined by NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee
10 Shifting Preferences Play a Role New Vehicle Sales by Category Manheim Sales in September CAR PICKUP SUV VAN 60% 50% 6% 40% 30% 41% 38% 31% 53% Car Pickup SUV Van 20% 16% 11% 10% 5% 0% Source: Motor Intelligence/Autodata, Manheim, Cox Automotive
11 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Car Parc Also Impacts the Market 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Light Vehicles in Operation, July , , , , , ,000 0 ANNUALIZED RETAIL USED VEHICLE SALES BY AGE OF VEHICLE 0 to 4 YO 5 to 8 YO 9 to 12 YO 13+ YO Source: IHS Markit, Cox Automotive
12 Dealer Issues 1 Market Conditions 37% 2 Limited Inventory 34% 3 Competition 31% 4 Credit Availability for Consumers 26% 5 Expenses 23% 6 Consumer Confidence 15% 7 Credit Availability for Business 9% 7 Regulations 9% 7 Staff Turnover 9% 10 Consumer Transparency in Pricing 8% 11 Too Much Retail Inventory 7% 12 Interest Rates 5% Source: Top Factors Holding Back Business, Cox Automotive Q Dealer Sentiment Index
13 Off-Lease Tsunami Weakens 4,500,000 Estimated Off-Lease Maturities 4,000,000 4,002,641 3,500,000 3,000,000 3,084,680 3,594,147 3,886,538 2,500,000 2,517,361 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , * Source: Cox Automotive; 2019 maturities are not complete due to 2-year leases yet to be recorded in 2017
14 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index At Record Levels January 1995 = Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 14
15 Manheim vs. New Vehicles 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manheim, Cox Automotive 15
16 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Underlying Average Price Trends $13,500 $36,000 $13,000 $12,500 $12,000 $11,500 $11,000 $10,500 $10,000 $35,000 $34,000 $33,000 $32,000 $31,000 $30,000 $29,000 $28,000 $9,500 $27,000 Manheim Index $ Amount (LHS) Manheim Non-Adjusted Price (LHS) Average new vehicle transaction price per KBB (RHS) Source: Manheim, Kelley Blue Book, Cox Automotive 16
17 Retained Value as % of MSRP Prices Are Higher and Retention Values Are Now Up Y/Y 65% 63% 61% 59% 57% 55% 53% 51% 49% 47% CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2017 (1 to 3 year old models) 45% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Kelley Blue Book Auction Values as a % of MSRP and New Vehicle Sales Weighted 17
18 Percent Change in Wholesale Prices 40% 35% 30% 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 6.3% 4.4% 2.3% 6.4% 9.1% 6.0% 8.9% 0% -5% -10% Industry Compact cars Midsize cars Luxury cars Pickups SUV/CUV Vans Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 18
19 Manheim Market Report (MMR) Vehicle Insights The top selling cars in September at Manheim showed appreciation in September (Sep 1- October 1) and lower than normal depreciation in last year based on their MMRs Rank Source(Rank) Category Subcategory Vehicle 1-Oct Past 30 Days Last Year Current Dep L12M Dep/Mo 1 All Van Compact Van 2017 KIA SEDONA 4D WAGON LX $19,300 $19,300 $20, % -0.3% 2 All Midsize Car Midsize Car Premium 2015 NISSAN ALTIMA 4C 4D SEDAN S $11,050 $11,000 $11, % 0.0% 3 All Luxury Luxury Car Premium 2015 MERCEDES-BENZ C CLASS 4D SEDAN C300 4MATIC $23,500 $24,400 $29, % -1.6% 4 All Compact Car Compact Car Premium 2016 FORD FUSION FWD 4D SEDAN SE $13,250 $13,150 $13, % 0.1% 5 All Midsize Car Midsize Car Premium 2014 NISSAN ALTIMA 4C 4D SEDAN S $9,825 $9,750 $10, % -0.3% 1 Dealer Dealer Luxury Luxury Car Entry 2007 LEXUS ES 350 4D SEDAN $5,700 $5,850 $7, % -1.9% 1 Lease Lease Midsize Car Midsize Car Premium 2015 NISSAN ALTIMA 4C 4D SEDAN S $11,050 $11,000 $11, % 0.0% 1 Rental Rental Midsize Car Midsize Car Premium 2016 NISSAN ALTIMA 4C 4D SEDAN S $12,400 $12,300 $13, % -0.8% Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 19
20 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Rental Unit Pricing Follows the Market $13,500 $13,000 $12,500 $12,000 Manheim Index vs xrental Mainheim Index Manheim Index NSA xrental NSA 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% Month/Month Price Change, Manheim Index vs xrental Manheim Index Manheim Index NSA m/m xrental NSA m/m $11,500 $11,000 $10, % 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 20
21 Average Auction Price Rental Units $17,500 $17,000 $16, $16,000 $15,500 $15,000 $14,500 $14,000 $13,500 (mix and mileage adjusted) Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 21
22 Average Mileage Rental Risk Units 60,000 Sold at Auction 55,000 50,000 45,000 42,255 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 22
23 Distribution of Rental Risk Vehicles Number of unique year, make, model, body configurations sold 2015 Q Q Q3 3,048 2,572 2,404 Share accounted for top 10 YMMB 15.6% 15.7% 11.8% Share accounted for top 25 YMMB 26.9% 27.1% 21.2% Number of YMMB to reach 50% share Source: Cox Automotive
24 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rental Risk Units Sold Distribution by Condition 2Q Q Source: Cox Automotive
25 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rental Risk Units Sold Distribution by Condition 3Q Q Source: Cox Automotive
26 U.S. Car Rental Market Revenue In Billions $30 Total Revenue (Billions) Revenue per Car $14,000 $25 $12,000 $20 $10,000 $8,000 $15 $6,000 $10 $4,000 $5 $2,000 $ $0 Source: Auto Rental News
27 Millions New Sales into Rental & Share of Total Sales New sales into rental Share of total new vehicle sales 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Source: BEA, Bobit
28 100% Distribution of New Vehicle Sales into Rental by Manufacturer 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Change in Sept YTD sales Mazda (-38%) Subaru (+68%) Kia (-7%) Hyundai (-39%) Toyota (-10%) GM (-12%) Ford (-9%) Nissan (+8%) FCA (-27%) 0% YTD Source: Bobit
29 Millions Total Wholesale Supply: Off-Rental Source: Bobit, Cox Automotive Analysis
30 Off-Rental Return Rate (not sold directly to dealers or consumers) Millions 1.2 Units Percent 50% % % % % F 2018F 2019F 2020F 40% Source: Cox Automotive Analysis
31 Summary of Hurricane Damage and Expected Impact At least 600,000 vehicles severely damaged or scrapped Subtracted approximately.3-.4 from August SAAR, which came in at ,000 vehicles should be replaced over September, October, and November 30-40% of replacements will be new vehicle sales; rest will be used Boost to new and used vehicle sales through November Surge in rental demand impacting expansion in rental fleet Tighter wholesale supply expected to last 2-3 months Wholesale used vehicle values expected to increase for 2-3 months 31
32 Millions Sales Outlook Vehicle Sales by Year and Type, Actual and Forecast New - Total Used F 2018F 2019F Source: Cox Automotive
33 Company Thank you! Jonathan Smoke
34 THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS Platinum Gold Silver Bronze
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