World PEV Sales (2012 versus 2013)

Transcription

1 Transition Dynamics for PEVs World PEV Sales (2012 versus 2013) Oceania, 253, 0% EV Sales by Continent/Region in 2012 Asia, 26177, 20% Europe, 48633, 37% North America, 56510, 43% EV Sales By Continent/Region in 2013 Asia, 47453, 22% Europe, 66346, 31% Oceania, 304, 0% North America, 99148, 47% source: sales.blogspot.com. World Total 131,573 World Total 213, 252 1

2 Sales have grown this year in Europe & China World EV/PHEV World EV/PHEV Sales YTD 215,396 Sept. USA, 84039, 39% USA, 84039, 39% Euro, 68391, 32% Euro, 68391, 32% Europe Asia USA JAPAN, 62916, JAPAN, Asia 62916, 29% 29% 3 Active E % Spark % imiev % Smart ED % Model S % Focus E % Rav4 EV % Fit E % US 2012 BEV Sales by Brand Leaf % 2012 TOTAL SOLD Leaf Model S Smart ED imiev Active E Focus E Spark Fiat 500 E Rav4 EV Fit E 2

3 Focus E, 1760, 3.77% imiev, 1029, Active E, 2.20% 0, 0.00% Smart ED, 923, 1.98% Model S, 17500, 37.49% Fiat 500 E, 645, 1.38% Spark, 539, 1.15% Rav4 EV, 1098, 2.35% Fit E, 569, 1.22% US 2013 BEV SALES by Brand Leaf, 22610, 48.44% 2013 TOTAL SOLD Leaf Model S Smart ED imiev Active E Focus E Spark Fiat 500 E Rav4 EV Fit E Fiat 500 E, 1066, 3.15% Spark, 844, 2.49% Rav4 EV, 842, 2.49% Fit E, 318, 0.94% US 2014 BEV SALES by BRAND Active E, 0, 0.00% imiev, 134, 0.40% t ED, 98, 2% Focus E, 1358, 4.01% 2014 TOTAL SOLD (Through August) 33,868 Model S, 8767, 25.89% Leaf, 18941, 55.93% Leaf Model S Smart ED imiev Active E Focus E Spark Fiat 500 E Rav4 EV Fit E 3

4 Porche Panamera S E, 0, 0.00% C MAX Energi, Fusion PHEV, 2374, 6.15% 0, 0.00% US 2012 PHEV SALES by BRAND Accord PHEV, 0, 0.00% Cadillac ELR, 0, 0.00% 2012 TOTAL SOLD Prius +, 12749, 33.04% Volt, 23461, 60.80% Volt Prius + C MAX Energi Fusion PHEV Porche Panamera S E Cadillac ELR Accord PHEV Porche Panamera S E, Fusion 86, 0.18% PHEV, 6089, 12.42% Cadillac ELR, 6, 0.01% US 2013 PHEV SALES by BRAND Accord PHEV, 526, 1.07% 2013 TOTAL SOLD Prius +, 12088, 24.65% C MAX Energi, 7154, 14.59% Volt, 23094, 47.09% Volt Prius + C MAX Energi Fusion PHEV Porche Panamer Cadillac ELR Accord PHEV 4

5 Porche Cadillac ELR, 774, Panamera S E, US 2014 PHEV SALE by BRAND 1.90% 610, 1.50% Accord PHEV, 267, 0.65% 2014 TOTAL SOLD (through August) 40,778 Fusion PHEV, 8683, 21.29% C MAX Energi, 5809, 14.25% Volt, 13146, 32.24% Prius +, 11489, 28.17% Volt Prius + C MAX Energi Fusion PHEV Porche Panamera S E Cadillac ELR Accord PHEV Classic diffusion theory tells us that markets for new stuff is segmented into buyers that adopt earlier or later. The main processes in PEV diffusion are: Communication between the early and later buyers about costs, driving, practicality Experience that the technology is useful, better (to drive), reliable, convenient, Evidence that the technology is green Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Technology Enthusiasts Visionaries Pragmatists Conservatives Skeptics 10 5

6 The development of the HEV market in Japan and California gives us a model of diffusion Rollout was over 3 generations of vehicle design. 1 st generation OEM mules for innovator feedback 2 nd generation refined design, develop supply chains 3 rd generation lean out production Japan: 3 rd generation HEV sales over 20%. California: 3 rd generation HEV sales 7 8%. Early core market: 6-15% of market Early market:1-2% 1996 (Japan) 2004 Early market followers: 3 5% of market So, it is interesting to superimpose these first 15 years of hybrids on a diffusion curve for first 15 years of PEVs Early core market: 6-15% of market Early market:1-2% Early market followers: 3 5% of market Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority 12 6

7 Higher income, higher education & home ownership are correlated with new car & first PEV buyers Gil s new car income pyramid 7% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 35% of new cars 27% bought 1 car = 65% of new car purchases Innovators Technology Enthusiasts Early Adopters Visionaries Early Majority Late Majority 66% of the households did not Pragmatists Conservatives purchase new car in the last 5 years 13 Laggar Skepti Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are a wide range of products for the market Minimum Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Varying electric range battery 5 10 kwh Low EV performance, High MPG Charging speed 3 12 miles per hour Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV) Increased electric range medium battery kwh energy High EV and ICE performance, medium MPG Charging speed 3 12 miles per hour DC fast capability (Mitsubishi Outlander) Battery Electric Vehicle X (BEVx) All electric range large battery >16kWh energy High EV, low ICE performance, low MPG Charge power generally 3.3 kw to 6.6 kw and DC fast capability Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) All electric range large battery >16kWh energy Exclusively electric operation Charge power generally 3.3 kw to 6.6 kw and DC fast capability ICE Range Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) All electric range large battery 85 kwh energy Charge power generally 3.3 kw to 18 kw and DC fast capability 1.1 to 3.3 kw 6.6 kw

8 The diverse technology broadens the market, more cars to meet diverse wants and needs. But also complicates the diffusion process, especially diffusion of information, experience and values generation PEVs Typology by US Sales Q1-Q Short Range PHEVs Extended Range PHEVs Battery Electric Vehicle Long Range BEV ,000 16,000 29,000 12, Car Sales Prius Plugin Accord PHEV C MAX Energi Fusion PHEV Porche Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500 E Rav4 EV Model S Panamera S E Q Q Q

9 2014 YTD PEV sales in Asia (Japan & China) Long Range BEV, 2857, PHEV, 4% 20901, PHEV 32% BEV BEV, 42007, 64% Long Range BEV 17 Max BEV, 7080, 10% European Market Share Sales YTD PHEV, 18530, 27% EREV, 4107, 6% PHEV EREV BEV Max BEV BEV, 38674, 57% 18 9

10 European Market Sales by Group 2014 YTD EV:38674 PHEV: EREV:4 107 LEAF imiev BMW i3 BYD e6 Kia Soul EV Renault Zoe Volkswagen e UP! Renault Kangoo ZE Renault Twizy Volkswagen e Golf Bollore Bluecar Citroen C Zero Opel Ampera Peugot ion Nissan e NV200 Goupil G3 Peugeot Partner EV Citröen Berlingo EV Renault Fluence ZE Porsche Panamera Plug In Prius Plug in BMW i8 Mitsubishi Outlander Smart Fortwo ED Ford Focus Electric Audi A3 e Tron VW Golf GTE Volt TESLA: Volvo V60 Plug in Model S Also, diffusion has a strong geographic aspect, with some regions, neighborhoods, developing faster Coastal California Portland Seattle Amsterdam Paris Atlanta? 20 10

11 World EV Cities & Ecosystems Chart of # of Electric Vehicles per City or Region 11

12 Cities EV/Car Ratio This process began with early sales clusters and gets more dramatic 24 12

13 3% percent of the addresses here have a plug in car. Market Area State PEV Sales % of market San Francisco Oakland San Jose CA 3.33% Atlanta GA 2.15% Seattle Tacoma WA 1.83% Honolulu HI 1.71% Monterey Salinas CA 1.51% San Diego CA 1.34% Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo CA 1.29% Portland OR 1.25% Los Angeles CA 1.08% Eugene OR 0.86% Sacramento Stockton Modesto CA 0.85% Eureka CA 0.63% Fresno Visalia CA 0.53% Medford Klamath Falls OR 0.51% Austin TX 0.47% Nashville TN 0.45% Juneau AK 0.44% Denver CO 0.44% Palm Springs CA 0.43% Peoria Bloomington IL 0.43% Salt Lake City UT 0.38% Bakersfield CA 0.35% Raleigh Durham (Fayetvlle) NC 0.32% Chicago IL 0.32% Phoenix (Prescott) AZ 0.31% Bay Area PEV market is about 5 6 times bigger than most early markets Data From WSJ/ Polk 26 13

14 Technology varies by geography as well More BEVs in urban core while PHEVs in suburbs The early market is now has a variety of buyer value clusters The current round of incentives tax credits, rebates, HOV lanes, low electricity prices does a couple of things to this schema: Encourages Early market followers and Early core market to jump into the market now to take advantage of incentives. Attract with HOV lanes, low costs 28 14

15 The current round of incentives tax credits, rebates, HOV lanes, low electricity prices aims to: encourage Early market followers and Early core market buyers to jump into the market now. What are the impacts of this on market development? Early core market: 6-15% of market Early market:1-2% Early market followers: 3 5% of market