The global EV market: where to from here?

Transcription

1 The global EV market: where to from here? Colin McKerracher Head of Advanced Transport Bloomberg New Energy July 10, 2017

2 Analysis to help you understand the future of energy Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1 July 10, 2017

3 Global EV sales by region e, thousand units YoY growth Thousand units 1, % +40% +56% +55% +47% 1, We expect passenger EV sales to be just over 1m in , China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW Note: Includes highway-capable PHEV and BEV passenger vehicles only; RoW is Rest of World 2 July 10, 2017

4 Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines 3 July 10, 2017

5 BEV model availability, SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans 4 July 10, 2017 Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Fiat 500e Mitsubishi i-miev BYD e6 Smith Edison Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is speculated. Venturi Fetish Honda Clarity BAIC EU260 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV200 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q50 M-B SLS edrive VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e Geely Emgrand ChangAn EM80 Renault Kangoo Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Aston Martin RapidE Mullen 700e NIO ES8* Tesla Roadster GLM G4 Exagon Furtive Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model S VW I.D. Chehejia SUV* NIO ES9 LeEco LeSEE Tesla Model X Audi R8 E-tron VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 40.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91

6 Fuel economy regulations for US, China and Europe L/100 km US China: 4.9 US: 4.2 EU EU: 4.1 China Achieved fuel consumption Future standard Note: The fuel economy targets have been normalised to the CAFE testing procedure. US targets are for passenger cars only. Source: EPA, NHTSA, EU, ICCT 5 July 10, 2017

7 China s vehicle sales according to the recent 2025 plan Millions of vehicles sold e 2025e Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6 July 10, 2017

8 BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results, ($ per kwh) % -20% -7% -10% -35% -22% Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average for the year. 7 July 10, 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

9 Short term EV sales forecast EV % of new car sales 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Europe U.S. China Rest of the World 8 July 10, 2017

10 Long term EV sales forecast to 2040 million cars per year Rest of Europe France UK Germany Japan Rest of World China 0 US Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9 July 10, 2017

11 Long term EV sales forecast to 2040 million cars per year % 80 43% 60 24% % 1% 3% ICE sales, total EV sales, total EV % of new sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 July 10, 2017

12 Main factors that could derail global EV sales growth 11 July 10, 2017

13 For EV energy market impacts: think small, not big 700, , , , , , ,000 CHINA S LOW SPEED EV MARKET SHANDONG PROVINCE EXAMPLE Typically two-seater Top speed: 60km/h Cost: $3,000-7,000 Unsubsidized, unregulated and growing very rapidly Template for emerging economies? Source: Times of India, Shandong Motor Vehicle Industrial Bureau, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Mitsubishi 12 July 10,

14 This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 13 July 10, 2017