Up and Down Months of the Stock Market

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1 Up and Down Months of the Stock Market Positive years (66) in the stock market were not good all year long and losing years (24) were not losers throughout the year. Winning years produce losing months and losing years have winning months. Since 1926, using the S&P 500 Total Return Index, the average year produces 7.4 winning months and 4.6 losing months. Examining just the positive years, we see that even the winning years put up with four bad months on average, headed by 1976, which produced a winning year with 7 down months!. On the other hand, the losing years sent a really conflicted message with five winning months during the average losing year, led by 1940 with eight winning months! Moral of the story? Don t let the here-and-now get you too high or too low. Up - Down Up - Down Up - Down Up - Down losing years are written in red. Average Year 7-5 Average Positive Year 8-4 Average Negative Year 5-7 Since Inception of the S&P ( ) Up Months (62%) 414 ( ) Down Months (38%)

2 Here is a look at the performance of the individual months in stock market history. December is clearly the best month with 71 up months and only 20 down months. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Winning Months Losing Months As for average rate of return, July was the leader and September was by far the worst with a negative return average. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg 1.46% 0.44% 0.58% 1.39% 0.37% 1.28% 1.72% 1.20% -0.75% 0.66% 1.42% 1.61% 0.95% complete monthly and quarterly histories follow:

3 Monthly Returns of the S&P 500 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

4 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year AVG

5 Year From a quarterly standpoint, the fourth quarter of the year has been the best (+3.94%) and the third quarter the worst (+2.44%). Quarterly Returns of the S&P 500 Total Return Index Year Year

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