Dave Carroll Capital Markets Day Markets Update
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1 Dave Carroll Capital Markets Day 2004 Markets Update
2 Tomkins Operates in Diverse End Markets Breakdown 2003 Sales ( 3,150m, US$4,795m) Non-Residential Construction 11% Other 9% Automotive OE 27% Residential Construction 14% Industrial Aftermarket 10% Industrial OE 10% Automotive Aftermarket 19% Source: Tomkins Sales to end market mix has been very stable over the past 3 years 2
3 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 3
4 Automotive Market Global Automotive Faster Growth in 2004 S. America N. America Asia Europe CAGR % 0.3% -0.1% 1.4% Production YTD Growth 27.8% -1.1% 2.8% 5.3% Total 0.3% 3.4% Source: CSM Autobase YTD growth is up this year 4
5 Automotive Market Global Automotive Production Outlook Millions of Units Production CAGR Emerging Markets % S. America 4.8% Europe 1.9% N. America 1.4% E 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 1. Asia includes: Japan, S. Korea 2. Emerging Markets includes: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand Source: CSM Autobase Asia 1 1.3% Emerging Markets leading future production, overall market growing at 3.1% 5
6 Automotive Market State of the North American Auto Market Latest Trend Comments Production Q3 3.6m -1.6% from 2003 Inventory 63 days +9.0% > 5 year average Incentives $3, % from 2003 Financing Rates 5.6% 5.3% from 2003 Auto Sentiment 68% 73.0% from July 2003 Q4 Forecast 3.9m -3.4% from Full Year Forecast 15.8m -0.9% from Full Year Forecast 16.0m +1.7% from 2004 Market Share (Big 3) 61.7% 63.1% in 2003 Used Car Prices -6.6% Same as 2003 Source: CSM Autobase, Analyst Reports A weaker market than last year 6
7 Automotive Market State of the European Auto Market Latest Trend Comments Registrations 1.1m -3.5% from 2003 Production Q3 3.5m +2.5% from 2003 Q4 Forecast 4.1m -0.7% from 2003 Full Year Forecast % from 2003 Market share (Top 6) % 62.0% in 2003 Foreign share % 33.5% in Top 6 Europeans consist of: VW, PSA, Fiat, Renault, DCX, BMW 2 Foreign consists of: Japanese, GM, Ford Source: CSM Autobase, Analyst Reports A soft market, but not substantially down from last year 7
8 Automotive Market State of the Rest of the World Auto Markets Latest Trend Comments 04 Asia* FY Production 12.8m +2.7% from Asia* FY Production 13.1m +1.4% from China FY Production 3.8m +13.9% from China FY Production 4.5m +20.0% from S. America FY Prod. 2.3m +22.8% from S. America FY Prod. 2.5m +9.0% from 2004 * Asia includes Japan and S. Korea only More positive news from Asia and South America 8
9 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 9
10 Aftermarket Global Aftermarket Growth A Large and growing market $610bn growth ROW 3% Asia 9% Europe 20% 4.3% U.S. 68% CAGR Faster growing market than OEM on a global basis 10
11 Aftermarket Aftermarket Growth Outperforming GDP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Automotive Aftermarket GDP 0% -2% OEM -4% Source: MEMA Aftermarket growth more stable than OEM and GDP growth 11
12 Aftermarket Key Factors Driving Aftermarket Growth 240 Motor Vehicle Registration (millions) 10.0 Average Age in Use (years) 220 CAGR = 2% 9.5 Cars Light truck ,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 Total Miles Traveled (billions of miles) CAGR = 2% $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Average Annual Cost of Repair by Age Average Age 2002 Up 70% , $ Source: 2004 / 2005 AAIA Factbook; MEMA; AASA
13 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 13
14 Industrial Markets Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 1997 = 100 Industrial Production Index % Capacity Utilization Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Both indicators ahead of
15 Industrial Markets Construction & Agricultural Production Indices Agricultural Equipment Index Construction Equipment Index Source: Federal Reserve Board, Ind. Prod. (G17) Release Main U.S. Industrial indices showing upward trend 15
16 Industrial Markets Heavy Truck Market Units 40,000 Heavy Truck Net Orders Units 40,000 Medium Truck Net orders 35,000 30,000 25, ,000 30,000 25, , ,000 15,000 15, ,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Goldman Sachs Heavy truck up 104% and Medium truck down 2% on YoY basis 16
17 Industrial Markets ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% % 40% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Institute for Supply Management 17 straight months of manufacturing expansion (> 50%) 17
18 Recreational Vehicles & Manufactured Housing Units 35, Recreational Vehicle Shipments Units 20, Manufactured Housing Shipments 30, , , , , , , , , , Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 0.00 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Source: Recreational Vehicle Industry Association, Manufactured Housing Institute Higher demand for RVs whilst manufactured housing stable from last year 18
19 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 19
20 Non-Residential Construction U.S. Non-Residential Construction Historical Non-Residential Sq. Ft Non-Residential YTD Growth 2004 Square feet (millions) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1, % -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Dodge 2003 was 27% off the peak in 2000, but 2004 on course for a recovery with improving YTD growth each month 20
21 Non-Residential Construction Key Drivers of Non-Residential Construction U.S. Office Rental Rate ($/Sq. Ft) U.S. Office Vacancy Rates $ % $21.5 $21.0 $ % 16.6% 16.4% 16.2% $20.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 16.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q Source: REIS Falling rent slowly driving down vacancy rates, but vacancies still at historically high levels 21
22 Non-Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction Growth Forecast Square feet (millions) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 CAGR 4.8% 1,400 1,300 1, Source: Dodge Recovery is forecast, but at more sustainable levels 22
23 Non-Residential Construction Well-Positioned in Fastest Growing Segment 2003 Market Size (Million Sq. Ft) CAGR Tomkins Content per Sq. Ft Industrial Buildings Warehouses % $ % $2.00 Office Buildings Education Hospitals % $ % $ % $16.00 Source: Dodge; Tomkins Estimates 23
24 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 24
25 Residential Construction Residential Construction Expected to Fall ( 000s) 2,000 1,900 1,800 Residential Housing Starts High level 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders but still historically high when compared to the last 20 years 25
26 Residential Construction Residential Supply and Demand Millions of Units Past 10 Years Next 10 Years Net Under-Supply Net Under-Supply Immigration, Population Growth, Second Home Buyers, Demographics Demand Supply Demand Supply Source: National Association of Home Builders; National Association of Realtors Ongoing under-supply of housing 26
27 Residential Construction Remodelling Market Consistent Even During Recession U.S. GDP YoY % Change 14% $ millions 250,000 12% 10% 8% 6% U.S. Renovation Expenditure 200, ,000 4% 2% 100,000 0% -2% -4% U.S. GDP YoY % Change Recession Recession ,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau CAGR of 3.7% for the last 20 years 27
28 Agenda Automotive Market Aftermarket Industrial Markets Non-Residential Construction Residential Construction Summary 28
29 Markets Outlook Market Automotive OE Automotive Aftermarket Industrial OE Industrial Aftermarket Residential Construction Non-Residential Construction Today Stable Outlook Stable to growth Growth continues Growth continues Stable / strong Projected recovery Overall positive market outlook for
30 Dave Carroll Capital Markets Day 2004 Markets Update
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