THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND

Transcription

1 THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND INDONESIAN GAS SOCIETY JAKARTA 20 TH NOVEMBER JUNE SELECTED SLIDES JON FREDRIK MÜLLER PARTNER HEAD OF CONSULTING ASIA-PACIFIC

2 When will we see peak oil demand? Power generation Gas and solar as main substitutes Growth : -2.4% Buildings Efficiency and better insolation Growth : -1.0% Steam and Process Still growing, driven by economic growth, but less growth due to efficiency gains. Growth : 0.5% Other (Agriculture, lubricants, etc.) Growth : 0.2% 8% 6% 6% 12% 12% 95 mmbbl/d 6% 6% 26% 18% Light duty vehicles (23%) and buses (2%) 1 billion (99.6% cars, 0.4% buses) Efficiency gains of 2-3% and substitution of cars by electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles Growth :? Light and Heavy Trucks Global fleet of 340 million (80% Light). Few ready substitutes as of today Growth : 0.8% Petrochemicals Plastic material and composites gaining market shares, strong demand from emerging markets Growth : 1.5% Maritime Global trade growing. Slow substitution by LNG and Hydrogen. Growth : 0.9% Aviation High underlying growth in aviation, especially in Asia, driven my middle class growth Growth : 1.9% Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 2

3 Norway The world s leading pilot market for EVs : 100,000 EVs in Norway 175,000 New cars sold of which 40,000 EVs or Plug in hybrids 135,000 scrapped per year Growth ~ 40,000 Total of 3,070,000 cars in Norway; of which, 3.1% are EVs 3

4 However, fuel consumption is still growing Monthly 500 fuel consumption in Norway : +1.3% 2016: +2.4% 250 Gasoline Diesel 0 jan/ 95 jul/ 95 jan/ 96 jul/ 96 jan/ 97 jul/ 97 jan/ 98 jul/ 98 jan/ 99 jul/ 99 jan/ 00 jul/ 00 jan/ 01 jul/ 01 jan/ 02 jul/ 02 jan/ 03 jul/ 03 jan/ 04 jul/ 04 jan/ 05 jul/ 05 jan/ 06 jul/ 06 jan/ 07 jul/ 07 jan/ 08 jul/ 08 jan/ 09 jul/ 09 jan/ 10 jul/ 10 jan/ 11 jul/ 11 jan/ 12 jul/ 12 jan/ 13 jul/ 13 jan/ 14 jul/ 14 jan/ 15 jul/ 15 jan/ 16 jul/ 16 4

5 1 Global car manufacturers electric car production targets 1/3 Car manufacturer Total vehicle sales volume 2016 [million cars] BEV+PHEV share of 2016 sales [%] (cars) Target annual sales BEV+PHEV [million cars/ % of sale] Comments % 2025: 3 million BEVs/PHEVs 10 BEV and PHEV models combined announced in year 2018 alone. 2025: 30 different BEV models and an unspecified number of additional PHEV models. Aiming at being the world s leader in electric cars Sell 2-3 million BEVs equivalent to around 20 25% of the Group s expected total unit sales % 2030: 3 million PHEV Toyota currently has 33 traditional hybrid passenger car models (HEV) and 1 plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Toyota claims conventional engines will have disappeared by Group recently made a U-turn in favor of Plug in hybrids, traditionally discriminating this power train in favor for simple (non-plug in ) hybrids Top ICE vehicle manufacturers % 0.2 % 0.4 % 2020: 1.5 million BEV/PHEV 2020: 0.3 BEV/PHEV No stated estimate or target The company expects 5% of all the cars will be electric by 2020 and 10% soon after. Intends to launch the first autonomous car by % of its sales in Europe in 2020 to be EVs. Before 2020, Nissan states to be able to reach a range of about 300 miles on a single battery charge H-K plans to launch 31 eco-friendly cars: hybrids 21 (12), plug-ins (6), EVs 8 (2) and fuelcells 2 (2) vehicles by Aim to become 2nd largest manufacturer of eco-friendly cars with annual sales of (incl. PHEVs and Fuel Cell Vehicles) Company missed the target of having electric cars on US roads by The company has high electric car ambitions for the future. Through 2020 GM will announce more than 10 new EV models. To launch 10 electric and hybrid vehicles by 2020 in the Chinese market alone % 2025: ~1 million BEV/PHEV Ford plans USD 4.5 billion investment in 13 New EV models by Ford estimates that 40% of Ford models will be electrified by % 2030: BEV/PHEV at 75% of sales Honda wants partially or fully electric vehicles to account for two-thirds of global sales by Plug-ins and hybrids would likely account for about half of sales in 2030, and BEVs will account for 25%. Plans to introduce BEV model in China in 2018 *Hydrogen cars (fuel-cells), HEVs (combines a conventional internal combustion system (ICE and an electric propulsion system); ** Assumed increased in sale for Renault Nissan similar to expected increase in global vehicle fleet; *** FCV=Fuel cell vehicle Source: Company reporting 5

6 Extrapolating ambitious growth cases could give million EVs by However, infrastructure, cost parity to combustion engines & availability of minerals for batteries could constrain growth Targeted/ estimated annual sales of BEVs and PHEVs from the top car manufacturers 45 Million vehicles Stated target Rystad Energy optimistic estimate Based on CAGR Tesla Volvo BMW Honda FCA Ford Hyundai-Kia Renault-N GM Toyota VW BYD Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 6

7 If constraints are handled and production targets met global car sales could be revolutionized by a shift to EVs... Global 200 car sales towards Electric cars and hydrogen cars Peak Fossil Vehicles 2026: 83 million Fuel cars Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 7

8 In order for EV disruption to occur it needs to happen in India, China & developing world Based on in-house RE fleet model, future fleet growth will happen primarily in India, China and the developing world. In order for EV disruption to occur, we should see significant electric vehicle sales growth in those same regions (China, India and developing countries). Electric vehicle risk in OECD countries remains quite probably on the country level, but insignificant on a global scale. Rapid electric vehicle penetration in OECD cannot alone cause peak demand in private light duty vehicle consumption Private light duty vehicle fleet forecast in selected countries Million vehicles France Germany UK Netherlands Norway US Japan India China Other World Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 8

9 On the other hand, global vehicle manufacturers start seeing EVs as a core technology Daimler mentions electric 238 times in 321-page 2016 annual report Diesel is mentioned 59 times Gasoline 10 times Combustion engine 20 times 9

10 This scenario gives peak oil demand in the early 2030 s Potential oil demand development towards 2040 Million bbls/d excluding biofuel Maritime Aviation Light and Heavy Trucks 20 Cars and buses 0 jul/ 15 jul/ 17 jul/ 19 jul/ 21 jul/ 23 jul/ 25 jul/ 27 jul/ 29 jul/ 31 jul/ 33 jul/ 35 jul/ 37 jul/ 39 10

11 QUESTIONS? JUNE 2016 Jon Fredrik Müller Partner Head of Consulting Asia-Pacific your oil & gas knowledge house