AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK. Global economy a two-speed recovery
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1 AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Sue Yingzi Su Senior Economist 24 th Economic Outlook Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago December 3, 21 Global economy a two-speed recovery Index xed Real GDP (2=1) Real GDP Growth: Emerging Markets growing faster than Mature Markets India Indonesia Brazil S. Korea South Africa Russia China EU 27 US Japan Q1 2-Q2 2-Q3 2-Q4 29-Q1 29-Q2 29-Q3 29-Q4 21-Q1 21-Q2 21-Q3 24 th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 1
2 New vehicle sales a similar picture New Veh hicle Sales (25=1) New Vehicle Sales: Emerging Markets growing faster than Mature Markets Russia India South Korea South Africa United States China Indonesia Brazil Japan W. Europe US motor vehicle output and sales Real Motor Vehicle Output (SAAR, Mil.Ch.25$) Total Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 2
3 Auto spending remain at record low Spending on New Vehicle as % PCE Source: Haver Analytics Key drivers of auto sales Vehicles Sales (M) Vehicle Sales and Employment Employment Change 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Vehicle Sales Chg in Gas (M) Vehicle Sales and Gas Prices Prices (Cent) Vehicles Sales (M) Vehicle Sales and Housing Starts Housing Starts t (thous.) 2, 1, 1, 1,4 1,2 1, 4 2 Vehicle Sales (M) Vehicle Sales and Consumer Credit Chg in Consumer Credit (Bil.$) 2 F th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 3
4 Employment recovery still slow. Civilian Unemployment Rate and Change in Total Nonfarm Employment US Recessions Change in TtlN Total Nonfarm Employment t(sa, Thous) Civilian ili Unemployment trate: 1 yr + (SA, %) 1,2 plyment Rate: 1 yr+ (SA,%) Civilian Unemp Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics farm Employment (SA, Thous) Change in Total Nonf But with hope, Private Employment Recovery from the end of recessions 1,, 192 Recovery, 4, The quarter when recession ended 1974 Recovery 2, 199 Recovery Current Recovery -2, 21 Recovery T-24 T-1 T- T- T T+ T+ T+1 T+24 T+3 T+3 T th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 4
5 There are early signs Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing (SA, Hrs) Average Weekly Hours Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing (SA, Hrs) Average Weekly Hours: Total lprivate Industries (SA, Hrs) Average Wee ekly Hours: Total Private Industries (SA, Hrs) Percent (%) NFIB: Percent Planning to Increase Employment Net (SA, %) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics Source: National Federation of Independent Business/Haver Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Housing still depressed 2 Housing Starts and Housing Permits Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units) arts (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Sta Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Jan-59 Jul- Jan-2 Jul-3 Jan-5 Jul- Jan- Jul-9 Jan-71 Jul-72 Jan-74 Jul-75 Jan-77 Jul-7 Jan- Jul-1 Jan-3 Jul-4 Jan- Jul-7 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-92 Jul-93 Jan-95 Jul-9 Jan-9 Jul-99 Jan-1 Jul-2 Jan-4 Jul-5 Jan-7 Jul- Jan th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 5
6 Credit markets - in the mend FRB Sr Officers Survey: Banks Willingness to Lend to Consumers % FRB Sr Off Survey: Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Consumer Loans % Sources: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics Overall we are turning corners Change in Private Employment (Thousand) Consumer Sentiment and Business Sentiment Consumer Sentiment (Left Axis) PMI Manufacturing (Right Axis) () () Single Unit Housing Starts and Home Sales unit Housing Starts 1 unit Home Sales (Billion $) Flow of Consumer Credit Flow of Consumer Credit Flow of Non revolving Loans th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21
7 Auto sales trend and cycles U.S. Auto Industry (Mil) 2 1 The Great Moderation 1 1 First Oil Shock Second Oil Shock S&L Crisis 29 Great Recession 4 2 The Roaring Twenties Great Depression Consumers holding vehicles longer Millions 2 Vehicle Parc Actual and Estimated Estimated Parc FedHwy Parc Without holding Estimated Parc th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 7
8 During difficult economic times Holding Time (Year) Holding Time Holding Time and Employment Change Employment Change Employment Change () Vehicle age - old Milli ons 1 Distribution of Vehicle in Operation as of Q (1) TOTAL 1 24 th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21
9 However it seems to have peaked now 7 Average Trade In Age Trade In Vehicle Age month moving average 4 Jan 5 Apr 5 Jul 5 Oct 5 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 7 Apr 7 Jul 7 Oct 7 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 9 Apr 9 Jul 9 Oct 9 Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 17 Pent-up demand being built 2, Scrappage Plus New Drivers New Vehicle Sales Difference 15, 1, 5, (5,) (1,) Recession Recession 199 Recession Source: Federal Highway Administration, Census, GM Scrappage Model 2 9 Recession th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 9
10 Population growth - steady Million Growth in Driving age Population (1+) Driving age Population (1+) Forecast Million Source: BLS 19 Share of licensed drivers - stable 1% 9% 1973 Arab Oil Embargo Gas prices up 4% Iran Hostage Crisis Gas prices up 53% Gas prices jumped from $1.5 in 23 to $3.25 in 2 % 7% % 5% 4% 3% 2% 19 Early Safety features added $ (in 2 US$) per car 1975 Passenger car CAFE standard initiated Bumper and Flammability Standards added $5 (in 2 US$) per car 1979 Light Truck CAFE standard initiated Experts predicted the advent of the computer age will permanently reduce vehicle demand 23 Light Truck standard raised above 2.7 mpg 1% % Source: BLS 2 24 th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 1
11 Historically more drivers more vehicles sands) Licen nsed Drivers in U.S. (Thous 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, Number of Registered Vehicles (Thousands) 21 Auto recovery - key driver of the US recovery Change in Motor Output 4% Change in GDP 2% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% Growth in Motor Vehicle Output GDP Growth 15% 1% 5% % -5% -3% -4% Note: 21 is based on information as of first three quarters of the year % -15% th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium December 3, 21 11
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