How Old Cars And New Solutions Will Impact Our Industry

Transcription

1 How Old Cars And New Solutions Will Impact Our Industry New Car Market Trends Watch the Used Car Market Tariffs and Other Concerns The Evolution of Mobility 1

2 2018 MID-YEAR REVIEW TRANSFORMING THE WAY THE WORLD BUYS, SELLS AND OWNS CARS June 27 // DETROIT 2

3 NEW CAR MARKET TRENDS 3

4 Annual % Change We re Venturing Into Unchartered Territory With A 9-Year Expansion US ECONOMIC GROWTH SINCE WORLD WAR II Recession Real GDP Growth (Annual) The economy continues to show momentum ECONOMIC MOMENTUM F Will the deepest recession result in the longest expansion? What does the next recession look like? Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, Cox Automotive Forecast 44

5 Millions The Used Market Grows Even As The New Market Plateaus VEHICLE SALES BY YEAR AND TYPE, ACTUAL AND FORECAST New - Retail New - Fleet Used 2018 forecast is 16.8 million units, down from 17.2 in 2017 TOTAL VEHICLE SALES F 2019F 2019 forecast is 16.4 million The used car market is massive and the forecast is healthy Source: BEA New Vehicle Sales, Bobit Fleet Sales, and IHS Markit Registrations (history); Cox Automotive forecast 55

6 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 The Time of Easy Money Is Gone, Impacting New Car Sales Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Auto Loans MILLENNIALS (18-35) VS ALL ADULTS Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Stronger Demand for Auto Loans 100.0% % 6.2% 90.0% 14.2% % 20.5% 10.2% 70.0% % 13.9% 16.3% CREDIT TIGHTENING % 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.4% 34.3% 52.0% % % Total US Super Prime (>=720) Prime ( ) Near Prime ( ) Subprime ( ) Deep Subprime (<530) Unscorable Source: Federal Reserve Bank Senior Loan Officer Survey, Equifax Vantage Score Distribution of Active Credit Consumers December

7 2012_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _04 Incentive Spend as % of ATP High Levels of Incentives and Leasing Are Supporting Strong Sales 12% 11% 10% 9% 10.6% 60% 56.7% 50% 40% 32.4% 30% 52.1% 51.1% 29.6% INCENTIVES AND LEASING 8% 20% 29.0% 26.0% 22.0% 7% 10% 6% 0% 5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Retail Lease Penetration Luxury Lease Penetration Non-Luxury Lease Penetration Source: KBB, Autodata 77

8 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 The CUV Continues Its Rise But New Faces More Nearly-New Competition SHARE OF NEW LIGHT VEHICLE SALES OFF-LEASE MATURITIES SEGMENT SHARE 60% 60% 50% 50% THE SHIFT EVOLVES 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% CUV Car Van SUV Pickup 10% 0% CAR CUV SUV PICKUP VAN Source: Motor Intelligence/Autodata new sales by segment, IHS Market registrations, Cox Automotive analysis 88

9 WATCH THE USED CAR MARKET 9

10 12/1/2012 2/1/2013 4/1/2013 6/1/2013 8/1/ /1/ /1/2013 2/1/2014 4/1/2014 6/1/2014 8/1/ /1/ /1/2014 2/1/2015 4/1/2015 6/1/2015 8/1/ /1/ /1/2015 2/1/2016 4/1/2016 6/1/2016 8/1/ /1/ /1/2016 2/1/2017 4/1/2017 6/1/2017 8/1/ /1/ /1/2017 2/1/2018 4/1/2018 6/1/2018 Even In A Strong Economy, The Used Car Market Continues To Grow 40,000,000 39,000,000 38,000,000 37,000,000 Annualized Used Vehicle Sales Used sales will continue to grow as the mix of vehicles moves to off-lease used CUVs and SUVs USED CAR MARKET 36,000,000 35,000,000 34,000,000 33,000,000 As credit tightens, the used car market becomes even more attractive Source: Cox Automotive estimates based on IHS Markit Registrations 1010

11 Off Lease Vehicles Will Peak In 2019, Flooding The Market With Choices ESTIMATED OFF-LEASE MATURITIES (ANNUAL VOLUME, MILLIONS) OEMs are releasing 7 all-new and 22 redesigned CUVs as off-lease peaks New vehicle launches face pricing and demand competition from used vehicles Even as volume declines, the share of CUVs increases USED CAR MARKET MIX Source: Cox Automotive estimates based on IHS Markit Registrations 111

12 Shifting Consumer Preferences Are Not Reflected In The Used Supply - Yet The SUV reigns supreme in new vehicle sales while cars dominated the used car market but that s changing New Vehicle Sales by Category Manheim Sales by Category CAR PICKUP SUV VAN CAR PICKUP SUV VAN 60% 60% 50% 50% 47% 51% USED CAR MARKET MIX 40% 40% 30% 32% 30% 33% 20% 20% 16% 10% 5% 10% 11% 6% 0% % Source: Motor Intelligence/Autodata, Manheim, Cox Automotive 12

13 Wholesale Prices Continue To Climb As Demand Increases Prices in June increased 0.5% versus May 2018 and were up 4% compared to June Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan Used wholesale prices will continue to grow as the mix of vehicles moves to offlease used CUVs and SUVs Small and mid-sized cars are also becoming more attractive as affordability pushes consumers into used cars The abnormal strength in summer prices reflects demand and hedging? USED CAR MARKET PRICES Source: Manheim 1313

14 TARIFFS AND OTHER CONCERNS 14

15 What are your top concerns regarding tariffs? Dealers: n=222 (Franchise Dealers n=159; Independent Dealers n=63) Field Dates: 6/27 7/3/2018 Consumers: n=773 Fielding Dates: 6/18 6/25/2018 About half of Franchise dealers are concerned about the potential of increasing tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, primarily because of the added cost to dealers and consumers alike. Switch the type of vehicle they are interested in Switch from shopping new to used or CPO Switch from shopping imported models to domestically produced models Delay purchasing until the tariff goes away 18% 12% 15% 30% Consumers expressed similar concerns, with close to half saying potential tariff increases will impact their decisions Simply pay more for the imported vehicles 7%

16 Each Brand s Exposure To Tariffs Differs Based On Non-USA Production 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 100% 99% 0% 1% 89% 11% 81% 19% 76% 24% 64% 64% 36% 36% 62% 38% 53% 53% 53% 47% 47% 47% 51% 49% 49% 51% 52% 48% 46% 54% 36% 64% 66% 67% 34% 33% 31% 69% 29% 71% 27% 73% 18% 82% 14% 86% 7% 93% 100% 0% ALFA ROMEO ASTON MARTIN AUDI BENTLEY FERRARI FIAT GENESIS JAGUAR LAMBORGHINI LAND ROVER LOTUS MASERATI MAZDA MCLAREN MINI PORSCHE ROLLS ROYCE SMARTCAR VOLVO Domestic Share Import Share Source: Cox Automotive estimates based on IHS Markit Registrations 16

17 What are the top factors holding your business back? F R A N C H I S E D E A L E R R A N K 1 Market Conditions 47% 2 Competition 36% 3 Credit Availability for Consumers 24% 3 OEM Mandates/Restrictions 24% 5 Limited Inventory 23% 5 Expenses 23% I N D E P E N D E N T D E A L E R R A N K 1 Market Conditions 42% 2 Limited Inventory 41% 3 Credit Availability for Consumers 40% 4 Expenses 26% 5 Competition 25% Source: Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index 17

18 THE EVOLUTION OF MOBILITY a 3-Part Research Study

19 FREEDOM AND INDEPENDENCE OF VEHICLE OWNERSHIP REIGNS SUPREME BUT ANTICIPATE A SHIFT IN PRIMARY MODE OF TRANSPORTATION 14% will not use a vehicle they own as their primary mode of transportation in 5 years 27% among Millennials (23-36 years old) Source: Cox Automotive 19

20 AN EXPLOSION OF ALTERNATIVES IS SURFACING MOBILITY SERVICES MODEL Traditional Ownership Traditional Ownership Public Transportation Taxi / Rideshare Public Transportation Taxi / Rideshare Ride Hailing Shared Ownership Subscription Services OWNERS FLEETS 20

21 RIDE-HAILING SEEING SIGNIFICANT GROWTH % AWARENESS % AWARENESS C H A N G E % USAGE 39% USAGE +17 Source: Cox Automotive 21

22 CAR SHARING IS EVOLVING MORE SLOWLY % AWARENESS % AWARENESS C H A N G E % USAGE 14% USAGE +2 Source: Cox Automotive 22

23 CAR SUBSCRIPTIONS SHOWING APPEAL % AWARENESS 10% LIKELY TO CONSIDER Source: Moody s economic forecast January

24 EVOLUTION OF MOBILITY STUDY PHASE 1: Understand consumer acceptance of emerging mobility options over last 3 years 1,250 consumers ages 12+ Release: August 2018 PHASE 2: Understand dealer awareness, perceptions and readiness of emerging mobility trends 400 automotive dealers Release: Late 3Q18 PHASE 3: Understand the mobility choices consumers would make assuming all mobility options were available, considering trade-offs on monthly costs, convenience, etc. 2,000 consumers ages 12+ Release: 4Q18 24

25 THANK YOU! Rebecca Lindland Executive Analyst Kelley Blue Book 25