Inside China s Auto Market. SUE YINGZI SU Senior Economist, General Motors
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1 Inside China s Auto Market SUE YINGZI SU Senior Economist, General Motors
2 INTRODUCTION The China Slowdown shocked the world this year. Vehicle sales also grew much slower than expected Yet, China auto industry remains the most important growth market in the world Low vehicle ownership density Room for growth in smaller cities But, pace of auto sales will be slower than before Slower growth in Chinese economy Restrictions on auto purchases and uses
3 China was the biggest growth engine for the world during the past decade 5% 4% Contribution to World GDP Growth Brazil China India Russia U.S. Rest of World 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Source: World Bank
4 However, the Chinese economy is slowing 16 Real GDP Growth (%) Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
5 Its traditional growth model faces significant challenges YTD Y/Y Change Fixed Assets Investment YTD Y/Y Change Housing Starts 45% 70% 35% 50% 25% 30% 10% 15% -10% 5% % Y/Y Change (12-mma) 40% Exports 270% Loan as % of GDP 30% 250% 20% 230% 10% 210% 0% 190% -10% 170% -20% Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics 150%
6 Impact of China slowdown is far-reaching China s share in world commodity consumption 6
7 Copper Price Y/Y Change China Real GDP Growth Commodity prices have collapsed, one major reason why commodity-exporting countries have fallen into recessions 160% Copper Price China Real GDP Growth 16% 120% 14% 80% 12% 40% 10% 0% 8% -40% 6% -80% % Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Wall Street Journal
8 China s surprising devaluation of the yuan in August panicked the global financial market Kazakhstan: KZT Brazil: BRL Malaysia: MYR South Africa: ZAR Russia: RUB Turkey: TRY Colombia: COP Australia: AUD Indonesia: IDR New Zealand: NZD Mexico: MXN India: INR Taiwan: TWD Korea: KRW Israel: ILS Vietnam: VND Singapore: SGD Chile: CLP Thailand: THB Philippines: PHP China: CNY Canada: CAD UK: GBP Norway: NOK Hong Kong: HKD Poland: PLZ Switzerland: CHF Euro Zone: EUR Japan: JPY Appreciation % Change versus USD since August 10, % -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Since 8/10/2015 Depreciation Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and Haver Analytics; Calculations: General Motors Company Note: Data is from August 10 th to September 7 th, 2015 Source: Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Financial Times
9 But China is transitioning from an investment/exports-driven economy to a consumption-driven one 49% Share in GDP Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry 18% Year-over-Year Growth Secondary Industry Tertiary Industry 47% 16% 45% 14% 43% 12% 10% 41% 8% 39% 6% 37% 4% Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics
10 Million Units Million Units Vehicle sales took off after China joined WTO. Total vehicle sales reached 24 million units in GM volume exceeded 3.5 million Industry Sales GM Sales Sources: GM Global Sales Reporting
11 Million Units China has become the largest vehicle market in the world 30 China Europe North America All Other Markets Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
12 Top 10 GM vehicles sold in China in Wuling CN100 Wuling N1 5 Wuling CN112 Chevy Cruze Buick Excelle 6 Wuling N300 Brand Vehicle Volume WULING CN ,083 WULING N1 308,645 BUICK EXCELLE 293,098 WULING CN ,933 CHEVROLET CRUZE 244,813 WULING N ,464 WULING N300 Pickup 215,489 BUICK EXCELLE GT 195,932 CHEVROLET SAIL 188,655 CHEVROLET MALIBU 125, Wuling N300 Pickup Source: GM China Sales Reporting Buick Excelle GT Chevy Sail Chevy Malibu
13 Sales were slowing much more sharply than expected in 2015 till recent months 60% Auto Sale Growth 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
14 Vehicle prices in China are falling faster this year 110 Mini Small Medium High Luxury Passenger Car Sources: Cheshi.com.cn
15 SUV is the fastest growing segment 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% SUV Growth Total Market Growth -40% Source: GM Global Sales Reporting
16 Growth has shifted from the large coastal cities to smaller inner cities Growth by Tier 25% Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% H1 Source: Polk
17 GM s Baojun 560 has become the second best selling SUV just several months after its debut, selling over 22,000 units in September Source: General Motors SHANGHAI, April 2015 SAIC-GM-Wuling (SGMW) today introduced its first SUV, the Baojun 560, at Auto Shanghai The latest Baojun model was developed by SGMW. The fashionable exterior of the Baojun 560 is based on the trendy, grand and strong design philosophy. A U-shaped mesh grille complements its V-shaped air intake with a honeycomb grid design for a dynamic effect. A sleek beltline and strong back-end design give it the identity of a true SUV. With a length of 4,620 mm, width of 1,820 mm and height of 1,750 mm, the Baojun 560 has a spacious interior true to SGMW s desire to offer a home on wheels for families. In addition, its 2,750-mm wheelbase is much longer than the wheelbase of most other models in its segment. The rear seats can be folded in a 60/40 split configuration to accommodate larger items.
18 A more upscale SUV, Buick Envision, is also selling very well with more than 10,000 units sold in September SHANGHAI, March 2015 Shanghai GM will launch the Buick Envision 20T, the newest member of its Envision mainstream SUV lineup, across China in April. The Envision 20T is powered by a 1.5T Spark Ignition Direct Injection (SIDI) engine that is matched with an intelligent sevenspeed DCG transmission. Like its sibling, the Envision 28T, it is available with frontwheel drive and intelligent all-wheel drive. The 1.5T SIDI turbocharged engine is the most powerful among GM's latestgeneration Ecotec small-displacement engines. It features mid-mounted direct injection, an integrated exhaust manifold and QuietTuning technology. The start/stop function, which comes standard, helps save fuel and reduce emissions. The engine generates maximum power of 124 kw and peak torque of 250 Nm. Source: General Motors
19 Fast backward to the year 1999 when GM s flagship vehicle was the luxurious Buick Regal, with government officials and wealthy businessmen being core customers. GM has witnessed the development of the Chinese economy and China s vehicle market General Motors and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) established a joint venture in 1997 called Shanghai General Motors Company Limited and began assembling the Buick Regal in Shanghai, China in The Regal has sold well in the Chinese market as a large, relatively luxurious model, despite its high price. Source: General Motors
20 Vehicle Pard Per 1,000 People What s next? Comparing to other more developed markets, China still has good potential Malaysia Russia Hungary Argentina Thailand Mexico Chile Brazil Turkey South Africa China Indonesia India United States Australia New Zealand Finland United Kingdom Poland Spain Canada France Japan Baltics Greece Italy Norway Portugal Switzerland Germany Sweden Czech/Slovakia Denmark South Korea Israel Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Developing Markets Have Upside Potential In terms of vehicle density, developed markets are trending at levels that reflect market saturation 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Real GDP Per Capita (2005 USD) Sources: National Statistics Agencies, United Nations, Haver Analytics, Polk; Calculations: General Motors Company
21 SUMMARY China remains a very attractive market Will account for 40% of the projected growth in global vehicle sales over the next decade GM plans to spend over $12 billion in the next five years to expand capacity and to offer new products We are not alone. Competitors have set equally ambitious targets
22 EVERYTHING STARTS AND ENDS WITH GREAT PRODUCTS
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