Thermal Coal Market Presentation to UNECE Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal in Sustainable Development December 7, 2004
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1 Thermal Coal Market Presentation to UNECE Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal in Sustainable Development December 7, 2004 Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 1
2 Presentation Outline 1. Barlow Jonker 2. Market Overview 3. Demand Forecast 4. Supply Forecast 5. Conclusions Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 2
3 Who / What is Barlow Jonker? Private coal consultancy Focus on international coal trade, & asset investment Offices: Sydney, Brisbane, Johannesburg, Beijing affiliates in : Jakarta, Bogotá, UK, USA, Canada Advising the industry for over 25 years A unique & boutique group Three key business elements Industry experienced staff management, marketing, engineers, geologists, scientists, economists Coalportal.com News, Information, Data Research & Analysis Comprehensive Industry Database Advisory Services - coal Market - asset investment - business strategy >2000 Consumers >1000 coal mines > 500 projects Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 3
4 2. Market Overview Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 4
5 Supply Demand Modeling Economic Growth Interfuel Competition Regulatory Framework Cost of Supply Political Environment Resources & Reserves Coal Quality/ Marketability Coal Demand Generation Demand Cement Demand Other Industrial Demand Coal Supply Mine Capacity Infrastructure Capacity 2000 power station units 200 cement companies 85 countries Over 500 mines 35 countries Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 5
6 Global Coal Production Bt Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 6
7 2003 Thermal Trade 481Mt Atlantic 214 Mt Asia Pacific 267 Mt Principal Exporters Principal Importers Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 7
8 Annex B EU Countries - Coal Use Coal Use Change Versus % 80% 60% 40% Increased Demand 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Decreased Demand -100% Iceland Netherlands Portugal Spain Italy Greece Norway Finland Sweden Denmark Poland Austria Luxembourg Germany Ireland France Belgium United Kingdom Switzerland Total Thermal Coking Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 8
9 Annex B Countries CO 2 Emissions 60% 40% 20% 0% % of 1990 levels % of Kyoto Target -20% -40% -60% Portugal Ireland Spain NZ Greece Slovenia USA Croatia Australia Italy Japan Austria Finland Canada Belgium France UK Netherland EU Sweden Switzerland Denmark Iceland Hungary Czech Rep Luxembour Poland Germany Slovakia Norway Russia Estonia Bulgaria Romania Lithuania Ukraine Latvia Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 9
10 Thermal Coal Demand Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 10
11 Supply Demand Outlook - Global Global Coal Demand Summary by Region 700 Million Tonnes Sth America Nth America Mid East & Africa Other Europe EU15 Pacific Other Asia North Asia Total Supply Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 11
12 Demand Outlook Atlantic Imported Thermal Coal Demand Summary Nth America Sth America Israel/Africa Other Europe Italy UK Million Tonnes Spain Germany Netherlands France Denmark Belgium/Lux Portugal Ireland Finland Sweden Austria Greece Atlantic Total Supply Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 12
13 Demand Outlook Pacific Imported Thermal Coal Demand Summary Million Tonnes Other Thailand Philippines Malaysia India China Hong Kong Taiwan Korea Japan Pacific Total Supply Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 13
14 Thermal Coal Supply Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 14
15 Supply Outlook Atlantic (1) 300 Atlantic Thermal Coal Export Supply 250 Supply Shortfall Million Tonnes Norway Other Europe UK Czech Republic Poland Russia West Canada USA Venezuela Colombia Other Africa South Africa Atlantic Demand Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 15
16 Supply Demand Outlook Pacific (1) Pacific Thermal Coal Export Supply Supply Surplus Million Tonnes ` Other USA Canada Russia East Vietnam China Indonesia New Zealand Australia Pacific Demand Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 16
17 Concluding Comments Thermal coal demand growth remains strong Pacific greater than Atlantic Long term supply base Short term infrastructure constraints Will support supply growth for the future Atlantic market imbalance Swing of USA from exporter to importer New project investment constraint Focus on investment returns (production, infrastructure, consumer) Uncertainty (regulatory, environmental, market) Barlow Jonker Pty Ltd Commercial in Confidence 17
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