FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

Transcription

1 26 WORLD OUTLOOK Presentation Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

2 Global Macroeconomic Overview Sustained and widespread real economic growth for the decade averaging 3.1%. Industrialized countries including, the US, EU-15, and Japan post average growth rates of 3.3%, 1.9%, and 1.8%. China, India and other Asian economies continue their high growth rates in the coming decade at 7.6% and 6.1%. South America shows strong economies with Brazil and Argentina growing at 3.6% and 4.4%.

3 Real GDP Growth Rates Percent World Developing Developed United States

4 Global Macroeconomic Overview Strengthening of the Euro and many other OECD currencies against the US dollar (around 1.2 to 3.8 % per year in the next 5 years), inducing increased competitiveness of US exports. South American currencies appreciate against the dollar in 25. From 26 on, all currencies depreciate at 2.3% to 3.7% for Brazil and Argentina. Strengthening of currencies in many CEECs, Baltic, and CIS countries continue relative to the dollar. Strengthening of currencies in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand. The Chinese Yuan appreciates by 1.9% annually in the next decade.

5 Average Growth in Exchange Rate Percent AU NZ EU-15 HU PO CN TH CA AR BR

6 Policy and Other Assumptions EU CAP Reform and Enlargement. EU Sugar Reforms Full implementation of the URAA commitments for developed and developing countries. Recovery from BSE and AI shocks. Limited impact of FMD in Brazil. Rising interest in renewable fuels. Mandatory 2% blend of biodiesel in 28. EU s Renewable Fuels Directive of 23

7 Meat Outlook Overview SPS shock, BSE in North America, AI in Asia and Russia, and FMD in South America shape the short-run outlook outcomes. Demand growth drive long-run outlook. After reaching historic highs in the last three years, meat prices adjust downwards in the short-run and strengthens again in???. Rising income drives per capita meat consumption to increase by 6.8 kg per person per year in the next decade. Strong meat demand fuels trade and production to increase by 25.6% and 2.4%, respectively. South American countries gain increasing market share in world meat trade. After losing 7 percentage points of market share in 24, the U.S. regains 4 percentage points by 21, and maintains its share the rest of the decade.

8 Change in Average Per Capita Consumption Kg per person Meat Dairy Oil Sugar Grains

9 Change in Average Per Capita Consumption Percent Meat Dairy Oil Sugar Grains

10 Japanese Beef Supply and Utilization 2, ,5 1 1, Production Consumption Net Imports

11 Thai Broiler Supply and Utilization 2, 8 7 1, , Production Consumption Net Exports 1

12 Per Capita Average Meat Consumption kg per person Beef Pork Poultry

13 China Livestock Net Trade Beef Pork Broiler

14 World Meat Production and Trade 26, 3, 22, 25, 18, 2, 14, 15, 1, , Production Trade

15 Dairy Outlook Overview Steady Asian import, declining EU exports and currency appreciation in major exporter raise prices of milk products. EU milk production is restricted by marketing milk quota averaging at 142 million mt. China expands milk production meet growing demand with 3.8% growth in dairy cows and 3% growth in productivity.

16 Asian Dairy Consumption Percent 2, 175, 15, 125, 1, 75, 5, 25, Dairy Consumption Share of China and India

17 EU Dairy Product Net Trade Butter Cheese NFD WMP

18 FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices Dollars per mt 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP

19 Livestock and Dairy Market Share Change Percentage point AU BR AR EU BR U.S. TH BR U.S. U.S. AU EU Beef Pork Broiler NFD

20 Meat Production and Feed Use 3, 1,2, 25, 1,, 2, 8, 15, 6, 1, 4, 5, 2, Meat Production Coarse Grain Feed Use Oilseed Meal Feed Use

21 World Feed Grain Outlook Overview Growth in livestock sector of Asian and Latin American countries drives the increase in demand for feed grains. Stronger prices increase area. Combined with yield growth production increases. Increase in area grows supply in the shortrun, while yield improvement is the major source of growth in the long-run. U.S. increases its market share at the expense of Argentina and EU New Member States.

22 Coarse Grain Major Importers 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Coarse Grain = Corn, Barley, and Sorghum China Japan Mexico Taiwan

23 World Corn Area and Yield Million ha 155 mt per ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 3. Area Yield

24 Corn Net Imports by Major Regions 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Asia Latin America Middle East Africa

25 Corn Production by Major Competitors 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina EU NMS South Africa

26 World Coarse Grain Net Trade and U.S. Market Share 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Corn Barley Sorghum U.S. Market Share

27 Oilseed Outlook Overview Oilseed sector grows with strong demand for both oil and meal products driven by population and income growth, and expansion of the livestock sector. Both growth in area and improvement in yield contribute to increase in production. About 76% of increase in area is due to soybean area expansion in South America. China s support of its domestic crushing industry drive faster growth in soybean trade compared to oil and meal products. Room for area expansion in South America dampens price growth in the next decade. Increasing interest in renewable fuels.

28 World Vegetable Oil Consumption 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soy Oil Sunflower Oil Rapeseed Oil Peanut Oil Palm Oil

29 World Soybean Area and Yield Million ha 12 mt per ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/ Area Yield

30 World Soybean Production 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil China U.S. ROW

31 World Soybean and Products Trade / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

32 Brazilian and Chinese Soybean Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 China Imports Brazil Exports

33 World Oilseed Prices Dollars per mt / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Rapeseed Sunflower Seed

34 Crops Market Share Change Percentage Point U.S. Argentina Brazil U.S. Argentina Brazil Corn Soybeans

35 World Food Grain Outlook Overview Food grain per capita consumption declines with growth in income as consumers trade-up away from staple crops to protein rich products. With declining per capita consumption, demand growth comes mainly from population growth. Growth in consumption in regions such as Asia, Africa, and the Middle East with limited potential to meet expanding demand fuels growth in trade and strengthen food grain prices. Long-run production growth driven by yield improvement. Australia, the EU, and Argentina regain market share, while Canada and the U.S. lose market share.

36 World Per Capita Food Grain Consumption kg per person / /99 21/2 24/5 27/8 21/11 213/14 Wheat Rice

37 Wheat Net Imports by Major Regions 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Asia Latin America Middle East and Africa

38 World Grain Prices Dollars per mt / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Corn, U.S. FOB Gulf Wheat, U.S. FOB Gulf Rice, FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade

39 World Wheat Feed and Food Use 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Feed Use Food Use

40 World Wheat Area and Yield Million ha mt per ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 2. Area Yield

41 World Rice Area and Milled Yield Million ha 156 mt per ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/ Area Yield

42 Other Crop Outlook Overview Sugar Sugar reform in the EU tightens world excess supply fueling prices to rise. Area and yield growth drive increase in production. Ethanol Rising interest in renewable fuels boost world ethanol trade and sustains price strength in the outer period. Brazil expands ethanol production to meet growth in domestic and export demand. Cotton Chinese cotton consumption and imports sustain modest price strength under consecutive large world crops.

43 World Sugar Price and Net Trade 45, Dollars per mt 35 36, 27, , , / /99 21/2 24/5 27/8 21/11 213/14 Net Exports FOB Caribbean Price

44 World Sugar Area and Yield 3 Million mt mt per ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Beet Area Cane Area Cane Yield 5

45 World Sugar Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price Dollars per mt 35 Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 FOB Caribbean Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio

46 World Ethanol Price and Net Trade Million gallons 1,4 1,2 1, Dollars per gallon Net Exports World Ethanol Price

47 Share of Sugarcane in Ethanol Production percent /2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 215/16

48 World Cotton Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Brazil Net Export China Net Import

49 World Crop Trade and U.S. Value Share Billion dollars 14 Percent / 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 215/16 U.S. Other Exporters U.S. Value Share Crops include wheat, rice, corn, sorghum, barley, soybean, rapeseed, peanuts, and sunflower.

50 World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share Million mt Percent U.S. Other Exporters U.S. Market Share

51 Thank You! Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

52 Major Sugar Exporters Million mt / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Australia Brazil EU-25 Guatemala Thailand

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54 World Rice Production, Use, and Per Capita Consumption Million mt kg per person / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Use Per Capita Consumption 59

55 EU-15 CAP Reform and Enlargement Policy Decoupling (percent) Livestock and Dairy Crops Modulation Set-aside EU EU NMS 1 1 Top-up Payments (euro per ha) Durum Aid Dairy Quota (mmt) EU EU NMS Target/Intervention Price (euro per 1 kg) Milk 31 Butter NFD

56 World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price Dollars per mt 25 Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio

57 World Wheat Area, Production, and Consumption 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thousand ha 235, 23, 225, 22, 215, 21, 25, 2, 195, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Area

58 World Wheat Trade and U.S. Market Share 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Net Trade U.S. Market Share

59 World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price Dollars per mt Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade Stocks-to-Use Ratio

60 World Rice Trade 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16

61 World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price Dollars per mt Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio

62 World Corn Area, Production, and Consumption 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thousand ha 155, 15, 145, 14, 135, 13, 125, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Area

63 World Corn Feed, Food Use, and Per Capita Consumption 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg/ha / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Feed Use Food and Other Use Per Capita Consumption

64 World Corn Trade and U.S. Market Share 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Percent / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Net Trade U.S. Market Share

65 World Oilseed Area Thousand ha 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Rapeseed Sunflower Peanuts Palm Oil

66 World Sugar Stocks-to-Use Ratio vs. Price Percent 35 Dollars per mt / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 FOB Caribbean Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio

67 Major Sugar Importers Million mt / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Indonesia Japan Russia and Ukraine South Korea United States

68 World Beef Production and Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Production Trade

69 Major Beef Importing Countries 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, China Japan Russia Mexico South Korea Egypt Philippines

70 Beef Export Market Share (percent) Australia Brazil 22.5 New Zealand India Argentina Canada Australia Brazil New Zealand India Argentina Canada Australia Brazil New Zealand India Argentina Canada

71 World Pork Production and Trade Thousand MT 12, Thousand MT 7, 1, 6, 8, 5, 6, 4, 4, 2, , Production Trade

72 Major Pork Importing Countries 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, China Japan Russia Hong Kong Mexico Philippines

73 Pork Export Market Share EU Canada U.S. Brazil EU Canada 23.4 U.S. Brazil EU Canada 21.3 U.S. Brazil

74 World Broiler Production and Trade 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Production Trade

75 Major Broiler Importing Countries 4, 3, 2, 1, China Japan Russia Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico

76 Broiler Export Market Share U.S. Brazil EU Thailand U.S. Brazil EU Thailand U.S. Brazil EU Thailand 39.5

77 FOB Northern European Dairy Product Prices Dollars per mt 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Butter Cheese NFD WMP

78 Annual Growth in Milk Production and Total World Output 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, N. America S. America EU Russia & Ukraine Asia Oceania

79 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Australia New Zealand EU-15 Other ROW

80 Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other ROW

81 EU-15 Dairy Production 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million mt Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 12.

82 EU NMS Dairy Production Million mt Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 19.5

83 Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Ukraine

84 Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries 1, Japan Mexico Russia United States Other Asia

85 NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Australia EU-15 New Zealand U.S. India Other Exporters

86 WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Other Exporters

87

88 NAFTA Real GDP Growth Rates Percent United States Canada Mexico

89 U.S. Livestock and Poultry Prices Dollar per cwt Cattle Hogs Poultry

90 World Meat Trade and U.S. Market Share Million mt 25 Percent U.S. Other Exporters U.S. Market Share (percent)

91 EU-15 Beef Supply and Utilization 1, 8 8, 6, , 2, Production Consumption Net Exports (tmt) Ending Stock (tmt) -6

92 Russian Poultry Supply and Utilization 2,5 1,4 2, 1,5 1,2 1, 8 1, Production Consumption Net Imports

93 EU NMS Dairy Production Million mt Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 15

94 Brazilian Soybean Production and Utilization 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports

95 Chinese Soybean Production and Utilization 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports