Oilseeds and Products

Transcription

1 Oilseeds and Products

2 Oilseeds compete with major grains for area. As a result, weather impacts soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed similarly to grain and other crops grown in the same regions. The same general price movements expected for grains will also be exhibited by oilseeds. Lower corn prices allow soybeans to compete for area, pushing soybean prices lower, as well. Expanding South American soybean area and production will also pressure soybean prices lower. Soybeans will exhibit a more than 30% decline in prices in 2014/15 from two years earlier. Rapeseed competes with wheat and barley for area. As a result, rapeseed prices are expected to track wheat and barley prices in the next year, and will take a little longer than soybeans to find new price levels. By 2015/16, rapeseed prices are projected to see a 30% decline from 2012/13 prices, and a 40% decline from the peak of 2010/11. Sunflowerseed prices are mirroring the movements of rapeseed, falling 28% from 2012/13 and 37% from the high point reached in 2010/11. With larger oilseed availability, meal and oil production will also increase. Because the oilseeds are the largest cost categories for protein meal and vegetable oil production, the decline in oilseed prices reduces crushing costs, allowing lower output prices while maintaining crushers margins. Prices of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed meals are all expected to fall more than 30% from recent peaks. Soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed meal prices also reflect prices of other major livestock feed components. The fall in grain prices will further pressure meal prices downward Expanding livestock production will dampen the downward movement of protein meals. Dairy, poultry, and hog production are the primary drivers of protein meal consumption, and production of livestock and products is rising globally. Because soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed oils are co-products with their respective meal counterparts, some common costs underlie both products. Vegetable oil prices are projected to fall and remain below historical highs over the next ten years. From their zeniths soy, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and palm oil prices are expected to exhibit declines of approximately 40% to 45%. While price-supporting demand factors, including energy-related factors, will remain in place, expected continuing increases in palm oil production will limit upward price pressure. Palm oil prices have adjusted back to a more typical relationship with other vegetable oils as production has recovered from constrained production in 2012/13. Vegetable oil prices tend to follow similar paths in the long term. However, there will likely be periods when prices move somewhat differently, particularly for palm oil, as there is a cyclical pattern to production.

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4 The increase in oilseed, especially soybean area that quickened in recent years is expected to slow. Lower prices will provide less incentive to expand plantings, especially if it requires new ground to be broken. There are still some regions that have available land for expansion, particularly in South American countries such as Argentina and Brazil, where new crop is being cleared, most of it for soybeans. Compared to soybeans, rapeseed has a much more limited geographic area. New lands are not being devoted to rapeseed planting and traditional producing countries such as Canada and the EU must also consider established crop rotations. One region that has been able to expand rapeseed production is the former Soviet Union. Producers on land that was formerly under central planning now consider regional and global markets. As a result there has been some switching of land from traditional grains into rapeseed. The potential for that to continue in the future is limited, however, and rapeseed area will not exhibit large increases. Crushing is the primary utilization for oilseeds as the co-products, protein meals and vegetable oils form the primary basis of demand. While many nations import soybeans and rapeseed to take advantage of value-added industry opportunities, most of the crushing occurs in major producing countries. Brazil and Argentina process most of the soybeans they grow as they invest in expanding crush capacity and provide jobs. Major crushers of rapeseed are Canada, China, EU-27, and India. These are also the largest producers. While Japan produces virtually no rapeseed, it is the one nation that imports to feed crushing facilities. Ukraine, Russia, and the EU are the leading sunflowerseed producers and processors. Argentina, China, and Turkey also have significant crushing capacity Soybeans account for the largest share of global oilseed trade. The U.S., Argentina, and Brazil account for nearly 90% of exports. Approximately 35% of soybean production is traded, and that proportion is expected to increase primarily as demand grows in China, which currently accounts for nearly two-thirds of global imports. Imports by other countries have been relatively stable. A much smaller proportion of rapeseed is traded. Approximately 15% of global rapeseed production will be sold on the world market in the next ten years. Canada controls an approximately two-thirds market share. The EU-28 has emerged as the world s largest exporter of sunflowerseed. However, trade is not as important in the sunflowerseed market, with only about 1% being sold on the world market.

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6 In combination with population growth, especially in developing regions, per capita incomes are pushing demand for meat and dairy products. Increased purchasing power allows better diets. As demand for these products increases, so too, does utilization of protein meals. Increasing urbanization in nations such as China is pushing livestock, poultry, and dairy production into locations closer to population centers. As a result, animal production is intensifying, using improved practices and feeds. Protein meals are being increasingly used in feed concentrates. Because poultry are much more efficient converters of protein than other animals, poultry production is increasing faster than hogs or dairy. Relatively low costs of production and short production cycles make poultry attractive for increasing meat in diets in developing regions. Versatility in product lines also has allowed poultry to take share away from other meats in developed countries. As global economic expansion accelerates in the next few years, dietary improvements, and therefore, protein meal consumption growth is expected to outpace the recent past. Rapid increases in livestock and dairy production are outpacing the ability to produce feed in many parts of the world. In addition, many nations with limited land bases have intensive livestock operations which require the importation of feed ingredients, including protein meals. The major exporters of soybean meal, as in the case of soybeans, are Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. In recent years, India has emerged as a notable exporter, and Paraguay is increasing sales on the world market. China is self-sufficient as this country imports soybeans to process to meet domestic product demand. The EU is by far the largest importer, with other trade distributed widely around the world. As with rapeseed, Canada is the dominant exporter of rapeseed meal, with most going to the neighboring U.S. India has emerged as a minor exporter in recent years, but domestic consumption is growing faster and will limit export capability. Despite being one of the largest producers of rapeseed meal, the EU is self-sufficient, feeding all that it produces. Trade in sunflowerseed meal takes in a somewhat limited region of the globe. Ukraine and Russia are the dominant producers and exporters of sunflowerseed meal. Most of the trade is with the European Union and Turkey.

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8 Vegetable oil consumption is being boosted by a combination of population growth, income expansion, and increased industrial uses, including those for biofuels. China is leading global soyoil demand growth, accounting for more than half of consumption increases in the past decade, and is expected to maintain that role in the next ten years. Palm oil production in tropical Asian nations such as Indonesia and Malaysia is dramatically increasing global vegetable oil supplies. These two countries together accounted for 85% of palm oil production in 2013/14. Palm oil is readily accepted and is rapidly taking share in many markets. Rapeseed oil consumption is increasing only with population growth. Per capita consumption is stagnating and is not expected to show measurable increases over the next decade as the rapid growth in production and consumption of palm oil is displacing rapeseed oil in some regions. Similarly, sunflowerseed oil is not increasing dramatically on a per capita basis. Unlike soybeans and products and palm oil, both rapeseed and sunflowerseed products are constrained by limited potential for expanding the land base devoted to those respective oilseeds. Palm oil has captured the largest share of global vegetable oil trade. Unlike soybean, rapeseed or sunflowerseed oil, palm oil is not a co-product with other oilseed products. The trees are fast growing in low-cost areas of the Pacific Rim and Asia and production has exploded. Two-thirds of global palm oil production is sold on the world market, coming primarily from Indonesia and Malaysia as this commodity has become an important source of foreign exchange. Together these two countries account for 90% of palm oil exports. Imports are much more widely distributed. In recent years, highly competitive palm oil gained market share from soyoil. As a result, soyoil trade declined in the period from 2008/09 to 2011/12. Nevertheless, demand growth globally will outpace crushing capacity increases in importing nations and trade will gradually increase. Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. will remain top exporters. Approximately 15% of global production will be sold on international markets. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed crushers cannot absorb the competition from palm oil prices in the baseline as readily as soybean processors, as rapeseed and sunflowerseed have a 40% oil content compared to 18% for soybeans. As a result, crushers are more than twice as exposed to changes in vegetable oil prices than soybean crushers. Rapeseed oil will see only gradual increases in demand and trade over the next ten years. Important importers will be China, the EU, and the U.S. The U.S. will remain the single largest importer of rapeseed oil in the world due to location near major rapeseed production and processing in Canada, which accounts for the largest proportion of the 10% of global production that is traded. Though trade is small in absolute terms, sunflowerseed oil is dependent on the international market as more than one-third of production is traded. The largest exporters are Russia and Ukraine, and the largest importer is India.

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10 World Soybean Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Soybean Area Harvested 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Argentina Brazil Canada China EU India Japan Mexico Paraguay South Korea United States Rest of world World total

11 World Soybean Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Soybean Area Harvested 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Argentina Brazil Canada China EU India Japan Mexico Paraguay South Korea United States Rest of world World total

12 Soybean Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 6,204 8,876 6,665 7,574 10,885 4,349 13,087 9,192 7,368 7,736 7,840 Brazil 20,089 19,662 25,848 23,432 25,214 29,943 28,404 29,914 36,129 41,509 46,224 Canada ,449 1,444 1,630 1,872 2,693 2,702 3,200 3,131 India Paraguay 2,649 2,850 2,370 4,121 4,085 2,599 4,058 5,206 3,555 5,491 4,373 United States 23,977 29,708 25,487 30,140 31,269 34,456 40,401 40,566 36,717 34,743 42,864 Total net exports 53,459 61,840 61,353 66,717 72,909 73,032 87,837 87,589 86,509 92, ,611 Net importers China 16,614 25,412 27,963 28,280 37,363 40,698 50,154 52,149 58,956 59,599 70,149 EU-28 14,711 14,547 13,936 15,121 15,095 13,177 12,623 12,377 12,015 12,446 12,928 Japan 4,688 4,295 3,962 4,087 4,009 3,396 3,401 2,917 2,759 2,830 2,894 South Korea 1,368 1,240 1,190 1,231 1,232 1,167 1,197 1,239 1,139 1,113 1,271 Mexico 3,794 3,639 3,667 3,844 3,614 3,327 3,523 3,498 3,606 3,409 3,700 Rest of world 10,275 11,514 10,882 11,923 11,648 11,481 12,316 12,467 9,330 8,751 11,352 Total net imports 51,450 60,647 61,600 64,486 72,961 73,246 83,214 84,647 87,805 88, ,294 Residual 2,009 1, , ,623 2,942-1,296 4,651 2,317 (Dollars per metric ton) Soybean price, Central IL

13 Soybean Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 8,018 9,983 9,847 9,851 10,135 10,635 11,245 11,787 12,250 12,694 13,154 Brazil 45,514 50,786 52,488 54,585 55,809 57,063 58,318 59,534 60,576 61,722 62,840 Canada 3,595 3,959 3,985 4,010 4,032 4,042 4,039 4,024 3,998 3,968 3,933 India Paraguay 4,515 4,502 4,581 4,613 4,781 4,922 5,156 5,452 5,791 6,153 6,403 United States 47,832 47,703 47,753 48,846 49,601 50,680 50,975 51,580 51,815 51,826 52,249 Total net exports 109, , , , , , , , , , ,681 Net importers China 73,810 79,329 81,106 84,913 87,222 90,008 92,653 95,336 97,363 99, ,995 EU-28 12,757 13,988 13,551 12,923 12,991 13,036 12,969 13,039 12,914 12,853 12,782 Japan 3,181 3,283 3,128 2,951 2,893 2,883 2,864 2,878 2,842 2,805 2,762 South Korea 1,299 1,292 1,294 1,295 1,296 1,296 1,295 1,294 1,292 1,290 1,288 Mexico 3,970 4,169 4,192 4,195 4,225 4,268 4,279 4,291 4,283 4,279 4,269 Rest of world 11,097 11,498 12,037 12,277 12,326 12,408 12,221 12,068 12,290 12,112 12,084 Total net imports 106, , , , , , , , , , ,182 Residual 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 3,499 (Dollars per metric ton) Soybean price, Central IL

14 World Soybean Products Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Soybean Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Soybean Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

15 World Soybean Products Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 Soybean Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Soybean Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

16 Soybean Meal Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 19,219 20,650 24,221 25,624 26,813 24,021 24,912 27,615 26,043 23,667 24,960 Brazil 14,510 14,004 12,700 12,548 11,958 13,026 12,899 13,929 14,648 13,210 13,923 China , ,349 1,997 India 3,674 2,230 4,265 4,140 5,280 3,800 3,110 4,792 4,384 4,347 2,735 Paraguay 1, ,095 1,072 1,076 1,124 1, ,147 2,500 United States 4,431 6,525 7,173 7,845 8,256 7,628 9,980 8,075 8,649 9,917 10,173 Total net exports 43,546 44,646 48,663 52,087 53,810 50,353 53,123 55,632 55,100 54,637 56,288 Net importers Canada 1,011 1,052 1,213 1,278 1,390 1, EU-28 21,729 21,486 22,233 21,818 24,197 20,689 20,408 21,268 19,988 16,405 17,865 Japan 1,195 1,503 1,601 1,737 1,747 1,812 2,106 2,208 2,282 1,765 1,976 South Korea 1,307 1,462 1,773 1,870 1,752 1,697 1,662 1,586 1,533 1,539 1,647 Mexico 791 1,249 1,724 1,775 1,393 1,512 1,203 1,493 1,537 1,282 1,406 Rest of world 16,362 16,218 19,300 21,722 22,128 22,315 24,638 26,574 27,566 28,925 30,320 Total net imports 42,395 42,970 47,844 50,200 52,607 49,195 50,997 53,995 53,871 50,653 53,955 Residual 1,151 1, ,887 1,203 1,158 2,126 1,637 1,229 3,927 2,333 (Dollars per metric ton) Soymeal price 48%, Decatur

17 Soybean Meal Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 27,837 29,684 31,732 33,040 34,065 34,985 35,841 36,767 37,704 38,656 39,664 Brazil 14,083 14,609 15,498 15,893 16,375 16,552 16,478 16,360 16,481 16,551 16,605 China 1,595 1,376 1,338 1,321 1,301 1,308 1,333 1,349 1,355 1,391 1,421 India 2,575 2,944 2,658 2,501 2,478 2,515 2,573 2,683 2,813 2,977 3,159 Paraguay 2,632 2,771 2,887 2,989 3,078 3,153 3,221 3,286 3,349 3,412 3,470 United States 11,474 10,903 10,231 10,162 10,168 10,128 10,313 10,214 9,952 10,075 10,035 Total net exports 60,195 62,286 64,345 65,905 67,465 68,640 69,759 70,659 71,655 73,062 74,353 Net importers Canada EU-28 18,941 18,487 19,394 20,205 20,259 20,363 20,742 20,974 21,403 21,771 22,169 Japan 1,944 1,835 1,910 1,989 1,986 1,970 1,967 1,972 2,042 2,096 2,176 South Korea 1,700 1,683 1,763 1,799 1,817 1,838 1,873 1,919 1,983 2,043 2,126 Mexico 1,402 1,304 1,527 1,696 1,810 1,893 2,004 2,114 2,239 2,340 2,445 Rest of world 32,989 35,831 36,655 37,163 38,584 39,616 40,255 40,801 41,143 41,995 42,639 Total net imports 57,695 59,786 61,845 63,405 64,965 66,140 67,259 68,159 69,155 70,562 71,853 Residual 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 (Dollars per metric ton) Soymeal price 48%, Decatur

18 Soybean Oil Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 4,238 4,757 5,597 5,970 5,789 4,704 4,453 4,561 3,794 4,244 4,090 Brazil 2,692 2,411 2,438 2,458 2,321 1,903 1,412 1,668 1,885 1,245 1,378 Canada Paraguay United States , ,477 1, Total net exports 7,384 7,797 8,669 9,465 9,627 7,780 7,586 7,909 6,445 7,010 6,931 Net importers China 2,714 1,688 1,411 2,310 2,625 2,411 1,437 1,267 1,442 1,325 1,259 EU India 901 2,015 1,714 1, ,058 1, ,164 1,086 1,829 Japan South Korea Mexico Rest of world 3,634 3,799 3,944 3,939 4,578 3,440 3,427 4,475 3,201 3,828 3,776 Total net imports 7,073 7,589 7,958 8,907 9,183 7,763 7,143 7,773 5,930 6,040 6,887 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Soyoil price, Decatur , ,173 1,144 1,

19 Soybean Oil Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 4,343 4,600 4,884 5,078 5,159 5,268 5,408 5,573 5,695 5,793 5,889 Brazil 1,166 1,398 1,581 1,697 1,805 1,877 1,914 1,936 1,894 1,836 1,769 Canada Paraguay United States ,044 1,150 Total net exports 7,094 7,592 8,078 8,250 8,555 8,812 9,070 9,349 9,529 9,706 9,865 Net importers China 1,042 1,104 1,159 1,025 1,034 1,123 1,187 1,224 1,266 1,346 1,400 EU India 1,927 1,988 2,136 2,158 2,291 2,367 2,402 2,423 2,446 2,467 2,476 Japan South Korea Mexico Rest of world 3,632 4,131 4,366 4,521 4,690 4,766 4,909 5,126 5,165 5,178 5,209 Total net imports 6,694 7,192 7,678 7,850 8,155 8,412 8,670 8,949 9,129 9,306 9,465 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Soyoil price, Decatur

20 World Rapeseed Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Rapeseed Area Harvested 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Canada China EU India Japan United States Rest of world World total

21 World Rapeseed Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Rapeseed Area Harvested 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Canada China EU India Japan United States Rest of world World total

22 Rapeseed Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Canada 3,520 3,385 5,271 5,257 5,629 7,777 7,044 6,983 8,598 6,986 9,107 India Rest of world ,557-1,735-1,214 1, ,224 2,512 Total net exports 3,073 2,647 3,716 3,522 4,417 9,034 6,847 6,617 8,777 9,210 11,619 Net importers China ,034 2, ,622 3,421 5,046 EU ,231 1,906 2,410 3,603 3,284 3,205 Japan 2,283 2,231 2,281 2,165 2,257 2,123 2,275 2,321 2,350 2,495 2,378 United States Total net imports 2,684 2,742 3,397 3,880 3,789 9,022 6,749 5,849 9,044 9,417 11,404 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapeseed price, Hamburg

23 Rapeseed Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Canada 8,399 7,929 8,045 8,181 8,313 8,491 8,625 8,719 8,843 8,972 9,090 India Rest of world 1,084 1,509 1,841 2,144 2,324 2,330 2,631 2,811 2,954 3,095 3,218 Total net exports 9,484 9,438 9,886 10,325 10,637 10,821 11,256 11,529 11,797 12,066 12,308 Net importers China 3,752 3,691 3,738 4,041 4,117 4,228 4,548 4,619 4,709 4,846 4,950 EU-28 2,403 2,827 3,188 3,291 3,503 3,567 3,672 3,861 4,028 4,158 4,293 Japan 2,452 2,447 2,478 2,492 2,499 2,500 2,502 2,504 2,503 2,502 2,500 United States Total net imports 9,339 9,638 10,086 10,525 10,837 11,021 11,456 11,729 11,997 12,266 12,508 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapeseed price, Hamburg

24 World Rapeseed Products Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Rapeseed Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Rapeseed Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

25 World Rapeseed Products Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 Rapeseed Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Rapeseed Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

26 Rapeseed Meal Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Canada 1,569 1,412 1,489 1,481 1,852 1,856 1,927 2,965 3,328 3,334 3,413 India , ,311 1, ,327 EU Total net exports 2,142 1,917 2,132 2,422 3,105 2,624 2,797 4,294 4,368 4,092 4,644 Net importers China , Japan United States 1,450 1,303 1,412 1,437 1,715 1,626 1,132 1,978 2,722 3,058 3,340 Rest of world , Total net imports 2,143 1,977 2,177 2,510 2,972 2,622 2,935 4,168 4,066 3,968 4,569 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapemeal price, Hamburg

27 Rapeseed Meal Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 Net exporters Canada 3,426 3,527 3,551 3,588 3,629 3,654 3,678 3,710 3,738 3,758 3,777 India 1,129 1,167 1,107 1,108 1,124 1,129 1,137 1,161 1,182 1,192 1,204 EU Total net exports 4,441 4,614 4,627 4,623 4,742 4,724 4,793 4,914 5,035 5,137 5,253 Net importers China Japan United States 3,358 3,519 3,588 3,608 3,611 3,624 3,683 3,749 3,833 3,928 4,024 Rest of world Total net imports 4,366 4,539 4,552 4,548 4,667 4,649 4,718 4,839 4,960 5,062 5,178 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapemeal price, Hamburg

28 Rapeseed Oil Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Canada ,049 1,129 1,271 1,416 1,609 2,296 2,584 2,346 2,265 Rest of world Total net exports ,186 1,177 1,618 1,785 2,230 2,682 2,483 2,525 Net importers China ,030 1, EU India Japan United States ,189 1,191 1,037 1,419 Total net imports ,394 1,302 1,619 1,953 2,139 2,723 2,404 2,471 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapeoil price, Rotterdam , ,367 1,258 1,

29 Rapeseed Oil Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Canada 2,552 2,519 2,540 2,563 2,587 2,600 2,623 2,650 2,674 2,693 2,712 Rest of world Total net exports 2,837 2,842 2,862 2,884 2,941 3,013 3,050 3,108 3,178 3,251 3,239 Net importers China 1, ,011 1,075 1,141 1,364 EU India Japan United States 1,335 1,568 1,638 1,673 1,728 1,789 1,842 1,884 1,924 1,962 1,998 Total net imports 2,783 2,788 2,808 2,830 2,887 2,959 2,996 3,054 3,124 3,197 3,185 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Rapeoil price, Rotterdam

30 World Sunflowerseed Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Sunflowerseed Area Harvested 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million hectares) Argentina China EU India Kazakhstan Russia Turkey Ukraine United States Rest of world World total

31 World Sunflowerseed Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Area Harvested (Metric tons per hectare) Yield (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Crush Other utilization Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Sunflowerseed Area Harvested 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million hectares) Argentina China EU India Kazakhstan Russia Turkey Ukraine United States Rest of world World total

32 Sunflowerseed Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina China EU India Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine United States Total net exports , Net importers Turkey Rest of world Total net imports Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunflowerseed, Rotterdam

33 Sunflowerseed Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina China EU India Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine United States Total net exports 1,095 1,039 1,130 1,121 1,092 1,093 1,100 1,156 1,216 1,253 1,256 Net importers Turkey ,026 Rest of world Total net imports ,008 1,045 1,048 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunflowerseed, Rotterdam

34 World Sunflowerseed Products Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Sunflowerseed Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Sunflowerseed Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

35 World Sunflowerseed Products Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 Sunflowerseed Meal (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Sunflowerseed Oil Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand

36 Sunflowerseed Meal Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 945 1, , India Kazakhstan Russia ,681 1,360 1,750 Ukraine 1, ,337 1,483 1,272 2,209 2,516 2,926 3,836 3,050 3,750 United States Total net exports 2,569 2,463 3,175 3,158 3,068 3,966 3,810 4,289 6,440 4,718 5,768 Net importers China EU-28 1,702 1,486 1,733 1,641 1,513 2,438 1,947 2,147 3,734 2,907 3,191 Turkey Rest of world , ,115 Total net imports 2,370 2,246 2,919 2,984 2,558 3,658 3,189 3,558 5,781 4,336 5,026 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunmeal price, Rotterdam

37 Sunflowerseed Meal Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina India Kazakhstan Russia 1,444 1,486 1,617 1,696 1,770 1,812 1,862 1,913 1,954 1,985 2,013 Ukraine 3,746 3,614 3,783 3,975 4,172 4,366 4,548 4,721 4,883 5,022 5,153 United States Total net exports 5,484 5,454 5,746 5,998 6,246 6,451 6,655 6,869 7,059 7,218 7,364 Net importers China EU-28 3,057 3,023 3,233 3,389 3,513 3,566 3,633 3,730 3,789 3,884 3,959 Turkey ,004 Rest of world 1,063 1,022 1,093 1,180 1,266 1,361 1,440 1,515 1,602 1,620 1,647 Total net imports 4,742 4,712 5,004 5,256 5,504 5,709 5,913 6,127 6,317 6,476 6,622 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunmeal price, Rotterdam

38 Sunflowerseed Oil Trade 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina 1,006 1,175 1, , Kazakhstan Russia , ,540 Ukraine ,514 1,867 1,324 2,098 2,644 2,651 3,262 3,244 3,850 United States Total net exports 2,019 1,899 3,268 3,296 2,676 3,681 3,671 3,623 5,423 4,523 5,755 Net importers China EU ,123 1,072 1, India , ,526 Turkey Rest of world ,051 1, ,251 1,197 1,045 2,218 1,582 2,284 Total net imports 1,301 1,496 2,649 2,574 1,880 3,191 2,907 2,738 4,617 3,951 5,258 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunoil price, NW Europe , ,404 1,254 1,

39 Sunflowerseed Oil Trade 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) Net exporters Argentina Kazakhstan Russia 1,386 1,364 1,567 1,656 1,771 1,858 1,957 2,060 2,155 2,242 2,309 Ukraine 3,699 3,607 3,773 3,958 4,146 4,332 4,508 4,672 4,824 4,955 5,077 United States Total net exports 5,434 5,375 5,717 5,953 6,208 6,438 6,676 6,915 7,134 7,323 7,486 Net importers China EU India 1,478 1,534 1,666 1,729 1,850 1,922 1,982 2,038 2,094 2,150 2,200 Turkey Rest of world 2,328 2,295 2,354 2,442 2,519 2,623 2,757 2,865 2,947 3,022 3,103 Total net imports 5,077 5,018 5,360 5,596 5,851 6,081 6,319 6,558 6,777 6,966 7,129 Residual (Dollars per metric ton) Sunoil price, NW Europe

40 World Palm Oil Supply & Utilization 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Palm Oil Production 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 (Thousand metric tons) India Indonesia Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Rest of world World total

41 World Palm Oil Supply & Utilization 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Million metric tons) Supply Production Beginning stocks Net imports Utilization Consumption Ending Stocks Net Exports Total Demand Palm Oil Production 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/12 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 (Thousand metric tons) India Indonesia Malaysia Nigeria Thailand Rest of world World total