U.S. Soybean Exports Forecast to Reach Record

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service July 2017 U.S. Soybean Exports Forecast to Reach Record 60 Accumulated Exports by Week Total Commitments of Soybeans as of End of June Million Tons / / Week number, Sep-Aug basis Million Tons / / / /16 Accumulative Exports Outstanding Sales USDA Official Forecast The U.S. soybean export forecast for is raised 1.4 million to a record 57.2 million tons this month on the strength of exports to date and outstanding sales to be shipped later. As of the week ending in June 29 th, accumulated exports have reached 52.9 million tons, 18 percent above this time last year, and exceed total exports (including outstanding sales) in 2015/16. Outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year are also strong at 6.8 million tons, slightly below the record level observed in 2015/16. Last year s large volume of outstanding sales so late in the marketing year was mostly triggered by supply tightness in South America. This lack of availability along with competitive pricing prompted the increase in buyer interest in U.S. soybeans. This year, while interest in U.S. soybeans remains strong, the market dynamics driving buyers to the United States are different as lower prices following Brazil s record production have spurred additional global demand. Despite record post-harvest selling, Brazilian producers, facing these lower prices and a stronger real, have been more willing to store a larger percentage of this year s crop in hopes that prices will rise. This has encouraged buyers to source additional product from the United States where supplies are flush and prices remain competitive. The recent price increase could temper the U.S. export forecast, as the increased prices could spur additional Brazilian sales and dampen global demand, resulting in a larger than usual quantity of reported outstanding sales being pushed into the marketing year. Regardless, will prove to be a good year for US soybean exports. For an subscription, click here to register: Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 OVERVIEW Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month to a new record of million tons. The soybean production forecast is raised for the United States and China. A larger cottonseed projection in India offsets reductions in the United States and Pakistan. Higher sunflowerseed output is projected for Ukraine and Moldova and exceeds reductions in the European Union and the United States. A reduction in Australia s rapeseed crop more than offsets gains in Russia and the United States. Peanut crop prospects are raised on gains in the United States. Global soybean imports are raised this month on a larger forecast for China, Argentina, and Pakistan which more than offset reductions for the European Union and Egypt. Exports are up on higher projections for Brazil and Ukraine. Global soybean stocks are lifted higher this month with increases in Argentina, Brazil, and China exceeding reductions in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is raised this month to $9.40 per bushel. Global oilseed production is higher this month. The sunflowerseed production estimate is raised for Ukraine and Moldova. Soybean production is up in Paraguay and South Africa, and cottonseed production is adjusted higher in India. Global soybean imports are boosted on larger shipments to China, Argentina, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey which more than offset reductions in the European Union and Egypt. Exports are forecast higher this month as larger shipments from the United States, Canada, Paraguay, and Ukraine exceed reductions in Argentina and Brazil. Global soybean ending stocks are up this month on increases in South America and China, more than offsetting a decline in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is down this month at $9.50 per bushel. SOYBEAN PRICES U.S. export bids in June, FOB Gulf, averaged $356/ton, down $11 from last month. FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $360/ton, down $7 from last month. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $355, down $5 from last month. Record production in Brazil coupled with abundant supplies in the United States continue to weigh on the market and pressure prices lower. For the week ending June 29, U.S. soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 36.0 million tons compared to 27.5 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 59.7 million tons, compared to 51.3 million for the same period last year. FOB ($/MT) Soybean Export Prices U.S. Gulf Brazil Paranagua Argentina Up River

3 OUTLOOK CHANGES Argentina soybean imports are up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million reflecting strong trade with Paraguay in the current Oct/Sep period. Australia rapeseed exports are down 500,000 tons to 2.6 million in response to reduced supplies following a lower production forecast. Brazil o Soybean exports are boosted 500,000 tons to 64.0 million following an increase in supplies resulting from a larger carry-over from the current year. o Soybean meal exports are cut 250,000 tons to 15.3 million reflecting the current year s slow export pace. Canada o Rapeseed export are raised 500,000 tons to 11.2 million reflecting strong current year trends and reduced export competition from Australia. o Rapeseed meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million on expectations of continued strong sales to China. China soybean imports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 94.0 million on a raised protein meal consumption forecast. Egypt o Soybean imports are down 200,000 tons to 2.8 million, while soybean meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 1.3 million, both on increased availability of global exportable supplies. o Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 550,000, following a lower soybean crush projection and a slightly lower palm oil import forecast. European Union o Soybean imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 14.8 million, following trade reductions in the current marketing year as well as larger global sunflowerseed meal availability. o Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 200,000 tons to 4.0 million, while sunflowerseed oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.7 million, reflecting growing crush and larger exportable supplies in Ukraine. Iran soybean meal imports are lifted 250,000 tons to 1.9 million, on growing demand for protein feed for the recovering poultry industry. Malaysia palm oil exports are cut 100,000 tons to 17.2 million, on slowing global demand. Pakistan soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.7 million, on growing demand from an expanding poultry sector. Ukraine o Soybean exports are lifted 100,000 tons to 2.9 million, on larger sunflowerseed meal availability and reduced soybean meal demand in poultry feed. o Sunflowerseed meal and oil exports are raised 200,000 tons each to 4.8 and to 5.4 million, respectively, following larger sunflowerseed production and crush forecast. TRADE CHANGES (on pace of trade unless specified otherwise) United States o Soybean exports are boosted 1.36 million tons to 57.2 million.

4 Argentina o Soybean imports are up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million. o Soybean exports are down 500,000 tons to 8.0 million. Brazil o Soybean exports are are down 900,000 tons to 61.5 million. o Soybean meal exports are down 250,000 tons to 14.8 million. Bangladesh palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.4 million. Canada o Rapeseed export are up 600,000 tons to 11.0 million. o Rapeseed meal exports are up 200,000 tons to 4.7 million on strong demand from China. o Soybean exports are up 200,000 tons to 4.6 million. China o Soybean imports are boosted 2.0 million tons to 91.0 million. o Soybean meal exports are down 150,000 tons to 1.4 million. o Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 3.9 million, and rapeseed meal imports are up 150,000 tons to 650,000. o Fish meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.1 million. o Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 4.9 million reflecting the weaker pace of trade and slowing demand for lauric oils. o Peanut exports are up 100,000 tons to 650,000 on strong pace of trade in shelled peanuts. Egypt o Soybean imports are down 200,000 tons to 2.2 million while soybean meal imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.4 million. o Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.3 million while sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 570,000. European Union o Soybean imports are down 600,000 tons to 14.0 million. o Soybean meal imports are down 500,000 tons to 19.0 million. o Rapeseed imports are up 300,000 tons to 4.4 million. o Sunflowerseed meal imports are up 100,000 tons to 3.9 million. o Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 6.6 million. Iran soybean meal imports are up 225,000 tons to 1.7 million on a stronger pace of trade and recovering poultry sector as Iran resumes chicken exports to neighboring countries. Malaysia o Palm oil exports are down 200,000 tons to 16.6 million in response to lower production forecast. o Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.5 million. Moldova sunflowerseed exports are up 200,000 tons to 450,000 on a stronger pace of trade and more exportable supplies. Pakistan soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 1.5 million, while soybean meal imports are down 200,000 tons to 500,000. Paraguay soybean exports are up 300,000 tons to 6.6 million. Russia soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 120,000 as exports fall by 100,000 tons to 300,000. Thailand soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 3.1 million, while soybean meal imports are down 150,000 tons to 2.9 million.

5 Turkey o Soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 2.3 million. o Sunflowerseed imports are up 150,000 tons to 500,000. o Sunflowerseed oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 650,000. Ukraine o Soybean exports are up 100,000 tons to 3.0 million. o Sunflowerseed meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.9 million. o Sunflowerseed oil exports are up 300,000 tons to 5.4 million.

6 Questions may be directed to: Bill George (202) Agata Kingsbury (202) Justin Choe (202) To download the tables in the publication, go to the Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): ( select PSD Reports, and then on the left click Oilseeds. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and ): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

7 List of Tables SUMMARY TABLES Table 01 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 02 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 03 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 04 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 05 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 06 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) COMMODITY TABLES Table 07 Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Table 08 Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Table 09 Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 10 Soybeans and Products: World Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 12 Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 13 Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 14 Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution HISTORICAL TABLES Table 15 World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 16 World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Table 17 World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 18 World Sunflowerseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 19 World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution COUNTRY TABLES Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 21 United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 24 South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 26 European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 27 China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 28 India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution PRICES Table 29 Table 30 Table 31 Oilseed Prices Protein Meal Prices Vegetable Oil Prices

8 Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Crush Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

9 Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

10 Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

11 Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production United States Brazil Argentina China India Other Total China European Union Mexico Japan Pakistan Thailand Indonesia Turkey Egypt Vietnam Other Total Exports Brazil United States Canada Argentina Paraguay Ukraine Australia Other Crush Total China United States Argentina European Union Brazil India Russia Ukraine Canada Indonesia Mexico Pakistan Malaysia Japan Turkey Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina Brazil China United States European Union Other Total Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds.

12 Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production China United States Argentina Brazil European Union Other Total European Union Vietnam Indonesia United States Thailand Korea, South Japan Other Total Exports Argentina Brazil United States Ukraine Canada Indonesia Paraguay Other Total China European Union United States Brazil India Mexico Vietnam Russia Japan Thailand Other SME Total China European Union United States Brazil India Vietnam Mexico Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina Brazil India Indonesia European Union Other Total Major Protein Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal.

13 Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production Indonesia China Malaysia European Union United States Argentina Brazil Other Total India European Union China United States Pakistan Bangladesh Egypt Turkey Malaysia Iran Other Total Exports Indonesia Malaysia Argentina Ukraine Canada Russia European Union Other Total China European Union India United States Indonesia Brazil Malaysia Pakistan Argentina Russia Mexico Thailand Bangladesh Egypt Japan Other Total Ending Stocks Indonesia Malaysia China India United States Other Total Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil.

14 Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production United States 91, , , , , ,938 Brazil 86,700 97,200 96, , , ,000 Argentina 53,400 61,400 56,800 57,800 57,000 57,000 China 11,951 12,154 11,785 12,900 13,800 14,000 India 9,477 8,711 6,929 11,500 11,500 11,500 Paraguay 8,190 8,154 9,217 10,665 9,400 9,400 Canada 5,359 6,049 6,371 6,550 8,400 8,400 Other 16,008 19,011 18,412 21,152 21,769 21,852 Total 282, , , , , ,090 China 70,364 78,350 83,230 91,000 93,000 94,000 European Union 13,293 13,914 15,006 14,000 15,000 14,800 Mexico 3,842 3,819 4,126 4,200 4,300 4,300 Japan 2,894 3,004 3,186 3,200 3,300 3,300 Thailand 1,798 2,411 2,798 3,050 2,900 2,900 Egypt 1,694 1,947 1,300 2,200 3,000 2,800 Indonesia 2,241 2,006 2,274 2,400 2,600 2,600 Taiwan 2,335 2,520 2,476 2,450 2,400 2,400 Iran 301 1,311 1,864 2,120 2,300 2,300 Russia 2,048 1,986 2,336 2,250 2,300 2,300 Other 12,257 13,094 14,818 15,684 16,514 16,899 Total 113, , , , , ,599 Exports Brazil 46,829 50,612 54,383 61,500 63,500 64,000 United States 44,594 50,143 52,860 57,153 58,513 58,513 Argentina 7,842 10,573 9,920 8,000 8,500 8,500 Canada 3,469 3,763 4,234 4,600 5,800 5,800 Paraguay 4,900 4,488 5,310 6,600 5,500 5,500 Other 5,143 6,548 5,680 7,318 7,248 7,348 Crush Total 112, , , , , ,661 China 68,850 74,500 81,000 86,500 91,500 92,500 United States 47,192 50,975 51,335 51,710 53,070 53,070 Argentina 36,173 40,235 43,267 45,450 45,500 45,500 Brazil 36,861 40,435 39,747 41,500 42,000 42,000 European Union 13,400 14,000 15,200 14,800 15,600 15,400 India 8,700 7,700 5,700 8,900 9,400 9,400 Russia 3,400 3,650 4,050 4,500 4,750 4,750 Mexico 4,030 4,175 4,400 4,650 4,720 4,720 Paraguay 3,350 3,650 3,600 3,950 3,950 3,950 Egypt 1,680 1,950 1,200 2,200 3,000 2,800 Bolivia 2,250 2,500 2,350 2,050 2,500 2,500 Iran 450 1,450 2,100 2,300 2,490 2,490 Japan 1,969 2,150 2,283 2,300 2,350 2,350 Canada 1,525 1,787 2,000 1,900 2,200 2,200 Taiwan 1,925 1,980 1,980 1,950 1,980 1,980 Other 11,174 13,223 14,793 15,790 16,519 16,619 Total 242, , , , , ,229 Ending Stocks Argentina 25,271 31,700 31,700 33,100 32,450 33,100 Brazil 15,820 18,925 18,200 25,815 23,050 23,315 China 13,848 17,009 16,910 19,160 17,410 18,910 United States 2,504 5,188 5,354 11,171 13,484 12,528 India ,018 1,018 Other 3,602 4,344 4,744 4,592 4,811 4,660 Total 61,645 77,366 77,046 94,776 92,223 93,531 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/February MY.

15 Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production China 54,531 59,004 64,152 68,508 72,468 73,260 United States 36,909 40,880 40,525 40,493 42,003 42,003 Argentina 27,892 30,928 33,211 34,920 35,000 35,000 Brazil 28,540 31,300 30,750 32,120 32,500 32,500 European Union 10,586 11,060 12,008 11,692 12,324 12,166 India 6,960 6,160 4,560 7,120 7,520 7,520 Russia 2,679 2,876 3,191 3,546 3,743 3,743 Other 22,368 25,928 27,425 29,289 31,361 31,242 Total 190, , , , , ,434 European Union 18,137 19,623 19,208 19,000 19,600 19,600 Vietnam 3,344 4,502 5,090 5,150 5,400 5,400 Indonesia 3,983 3,844 4,203 4,300 4,450 4,450 Thailand 2,665 3,068 2,433 2,850 3,050 3,050 Philippines 2,335 2,204 2,617 2,650 2,750 2,750 Mexico 1,410 1,795 2,367 2,400 2,700 2,700 Korea, South 1,825 1,751 2,118 1,950 2,000 2,000 Japan 1,976 1,699 1,721 1,800 1,880 1,880 Iran 2,683 1,948 1,420 1,725 1,620 1,870 Malaysia 1,397 1,465 1,291 1,480 1,600 1,600 Other 18,189 18,956 19,431 19,616 20,373 20,433 Total 57,944 60,855 61,899 62,921 65,423 65,733 Exports Argentina 24,972 28,575 30,325 31,750 32,325 32,325 Brazil 13,948 14,290 15,407 14,750 15,500 15,250 United States 10,504 11,891 10,844 10,795 11,249 11,249 Paraguay 2,504 2,530 2,450 2,750 2,750 2,750 India 3,252 1, ,400 1,700 1,700 Other 5,536 5,556 5,917 5,018 5,609 5,595 Total 60,716 64,363 65,352 66,463 69,133 68,869 China 52,534 57,467 62,267 67,163 70,998 71,790 European Union 28,392 29,942 31,092 30,592 31,692 31,442 United States 26,775 29,282 30,044 29,983 31,026 31,026 Brazil 15,100 15,700 16,170 16,800 17,250 17,400 Vietnam 4,100 4,750 5,620 6,090 6,700 6,700 Mexico 4,575 5,100 5,775 6,060 6,420 6,420 India 3,640 4,500 4,630 5,150 5,800 5,800 Thailand 4,150 4,100 4,230 4,300 4,450 4,430 Indonesia 3,825 4,100 4,178 4,250 4,350 4,350 Iran 2,800 3,030 3,250 3,550 3,600 3,850 Russia 2,700 2,850 3,150 3,350 3,750 3,750 Japan 3,434 3,361 3,453 3,550 3,650 3,650 Egypt 2,450 2,650 2,950 3,200 3,450 3,450 Argentina 2,100 2,402 2,680 2,840 3,056 3,056 Philippines 2,200 2,350 2,550 2,750 2,950 2,950 Other 28,096 30,192 31,507 33,017 34,825 34,790 Total 186, , , , , ,854 Ending Stocks Argentina 4,073 4,025 4,231 4,561 3,860 4,180 Brazil 2,484 3,812 3,010 3,600 3,270 3,470 India Indonesia Thailand Other 3,058 4,522 4,667 4,451 3,887 4,129 Total 10,648 13,500 12,323 13,824 12,511 13,268 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/February MY. Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY.

16 Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production China 12,335 13,347 14,515 15,501 16,397 16,576 United States 9,131 9,706 9,956 10,006 10,260 10,260 Argentina 6,785 7,687 8,433 8,800 8,760 8,760 Brazil 7,070 7,760 7,630 7,960 8,060 8,060 European Union 2,546 2,660 2,888 2,812 2,964 2,926 India 1,566 1,386 1,025 1,600 1,690 1,690 Russia Other 5,204 6,003 6,343 6,760 7,219 7,214 Total 45,246 49,203 51,516 54,245 56,201 56,337 India 1,804 2,815 4,269 3,700 4,100 4,100 Bangladesh Algeria China 1, Morocco Peru Egypt Colombia Iran Mexico Other 2,957 3,026 2,929 3,088 3,187 3,145 Total 9,254 10,038 11,629 11,193 11,627 11,535 Exports Argentina 4,087 5,094 5,697 5,600 5,800 5,800 Brazil 1,378 1,510 1,550 1,400 1,475 1,475 United States ,017 1,089 1,043 1,043 European Union 766 1, Paraguay Russia Bolivia Other 1,007 1,059 1,015 1,178 1,174 1,159 Total 9,443 11,089 11,692 11,647 12,007 11,992 China 13,650 14,200 15,250 16,000 16,850 16,950 United States 8,576 8,600 9,145 8,890 9,276 9,275 Brazil 5,705 6,265 6,290 6,560 6,665 6,665 India 3,300 4,100 5,300 5,400 5,800 5,800 Argentina 2,844 2,401 2,831 3,020 3,005 3,005 European Union 1,990 2,065 2,305 2,305 2,310 2,255 Mexico 890 1,001 1,050 1,130 1,160 1,160 Bangladesh ,005 1,000 1,000 Egypt Algeria Iran Morocco Pakistan Colombia Korea, South Other 4,803 5,002 5,030 5,201 5,503 5,530 Total 45,288 47,866 52,121 53,566 55,899 55,920 Ending Stocks United States ,040 China Argentina India Brazil Other 1,457 1,307 1,209 1,097 1,036 1,017 Total 3,908 4,194 3,526 3,751 3,553 3,711 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Peru is on an January/December MY and Paraguay and Bolivia are on a March/February MY.

17 Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean Marketing Year 2015/ / /16 Exports North America 11,192 11,100 11,594 1,171 1,263 1,217 57,094 61,753 64,313 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,234 4,600 5,800 United States (Sep-Aug) 10,844 10,795 11,249 1,017 1,089 1,043 52,860 57,153 58,513 South America 49,853 50,671 52,036 8,315 8,053 8,394 71,808 79,185 81,255 Argentina (Oct-Sep) 30,325 31,750 32,325 5,697 5,600 5,800 9,920 8,000 8,500 Brazil (Oct-Sep) 15,407 14,750 15,250 1,550 1,400 1,475 54,383 61,500 64,000 Paraguay (Mar-Feb) 2,450 2,750 2, ,310 6,600 5,500 South Asia 417 1,408 1, India (Oct-Sep) 409 1,400 1, Other 3,890 3,284 3,533 2,203 2,331 2,381 3,351 4,033 3,843 World Total 65,352 66,463 68,869 11,692 11,647 11, , , ,661 European Union (Oct-Sep) 19,208 19,000 19, ,006 14,000 14,800 East Asia 3,912 3,867 3, , ,145 98, ,055 China (Oct-Sep) ,230 91,000 94,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,721 1,800 1, ,186 3,200 3,300 Korea, South (Oct-Sep) 2,118 1,950 2, ,249 1,375 1,350 Taiwan (Oct-Sep) ,476 2,450 2,400 Southeast Asia 15,656 16,452 17, ,854 8,110 8,790 Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 4,203 4,300 4, ,274 2,400 2,600 Malaysia (Oct-Sep) 1,291 1,480 1, Philippines (Jan-Dec) 2,617 2,650 2, Thailand (Sep-Aug) 2,433 2,850 3, ,798 3,050 2,900 Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 5,090 5,150 5, ,602 1,700 2,300 North America 3,522 3,518 3, ,064 5,345 5,360 Canada (Aug-Jul) Mexico (Sep-Aug) 2,367 2,400 2, ,126 4,200 4,300 South America 4,842 5,075 5,401 1,223 1,333 1,377 2,162 2,809 2,877 Brazil (Oct-Sep) Colombia (Oct-Sep) 1,206 1,265 1, Central America 1,173 1,225 1, Caribbean 952 1,062 1, Middle East 4,117 4,925 5, ,185 5,495 5,750 Iran (Oct-Sep) 1,420 1,725 1, ,864 2,120 2,300 Israel (Oct-Sep) Syria (Jan-Dec) Turkey (Oct-Sep) ,283 2,250 2,250 North Africa 4,496 3,730 3,670 1,995 1,725 1,775 1,946 2,920 3,570 Egypt (Oct-Sep) 2,174 1,400 1, ,300 2,200 2,800 Other 4,021 4,067 4,416 5,564 5,198 5,549 5,599 5,315 5,828 World Total 61,899 62,921 65,733 11,629 11,193 11, , , ,599

18 Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / /16 Jun Jul Production Indonesia 30,500 33,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 36,000 Malaysia 20,161 19,879 17,700 19,250 21,000 21,000 Thailand 2,000 2,068 1,804 2,000 2,200 2,200 Colombia 1,041 1,110 1,275 1,146 1,320 1,320 Nigeria Other 4,632 4,783 5,084 5,301 5,335 5,365 Total 59,304 61,810 58,833 62,667 66,825 66,855 India 7,820 9,139 8,857 9,000 9,500 9,500 European Union 6,969 6,936 6,636 6,600 6,650 6,600 China 5,573 5,696 4,689 4,900 4,950 4,900 Pakistan 2,725 2,826 2,720 3,000 3,100 3,100 Bangladesh 1,232 1,280 1,511 1,400 1,600 1,600 United States 1,220 1,143 1,307 1,293 1,270 1,270 Egypt 1,075 1,489 1,038 1,250 1,300 1,250 Philippines Burma Russia Other 13,378 13,849 13,185 14,300 14,742 14,722 Total 41,900 44,793 42,605 44,223 45,662 45,492 Exports Indonesia 21,719 25,964 22,905 25,000 25,500 25,500 Malaysia 17,344 17,378 16,621 16,600 17,300 17,200 Guatemala Benin Papua New Guinea Other 2,564 2,469 2,562 2,530 2,538 2,538 Total 43,194 47,371 43,734 45,970 47,158 47,058 Indonesia 8,750 7,520 9,428 9,470 9,600 9,600 India 8,302 9,150 9,100 9,250 9,600 9,600 European Union 6,600 6,920 6,700 6,475 6,475 6,450 China 5,700 5,700 4,830 4,900 4,950 4,900 Malaysia 2,869 2,941 2,990 3,270 3,570 3,620 Pakistan 2,540 2,738 2,815 2,995 3,030 3,030 Thailand 1,754 1,961 1,835 1,958 2,160 2,160 Bangladesh 1,215 1,275 1,411 1,400 1,620 1,620 Nigeria 1,470 1,470 1,320 1,340 1,400 1,400 Egypt 1,150 1,350 1,150 1,250 1,300 1,250 United States 1,207 1,091 1,269 1,266 1,249 1,249 Colombia ,020 1,035 1,105 1,105 Philippines ,010 1,080 1,080 Russia Burma Other 13,039 13,281 13,389 14,135 14,561 14,566 Total 57,449 58,704 59,855 61,364 63,320 63,250 Ending Stocks Indonesia 3,210 2,734 2,409 1,939 2,839 2,839 Malaysia 2,090 2,641 1,546 1,626 2,506 2,556 India Pakistan Thailand Other 3,402 3,469 2,918 2,902 2,960 2,935 Total 9,572 10,100 7,949 7,505 9,518 9,543

19 Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Marketing Year 2015/ / /16 Production China (Oct-Sep) 11,009 9,998 10,176 7,258 6,591 6,708 14,931 13,500 13,100 India (Oct-Sep) 2,985 3,460 3,550 1,900 2,200 2,250 5,920 7,091 7,200 Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,698 5,200 5,300 3,625 4,020 4,100 18,377 18,500 21,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,343 1,360 1,360 1,050 1,075 1, European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,862 13,908 13,566 10,166 10,199 9,948 21,997 20,471 21,150 Other 5,466 5,711 6,227 3,843 4,048 4,374 8,820 9,609 9,964 World Total 39,363 39,637 40,179 27,842 28,133 28,455 70,048 69,175 72,418 China (Oct-Sep) ,011 3,900 4,300 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) Japan (Oct-Sep) ,387 2,450 2,450 European Union (Jul-Jun) ,494 4,400 4,000 Other 4,877 5,056 5,187 2,744 2,993 3,081 4,523 5,081 5,227 World Total 5,678 5,969 6,222 4,155 4,411 4,539 14,520 15,921 16,077 Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,103 4,650 4,650 2,770 3,150 3,200 10,282 11,000 11,200 Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) Other , ,201 3,753 4,582 4,290 World Total 5,692 6,005 6,417 4,132 4,477 4,710 14,380 15,912 15,840 China (Oct-Sep) 11,254 10,618 10,706 8,350 8,400 8,200 19,100 17,400 17,700 India (Oct-Sep) 2,600 3,000 3,220 2,280 2,545 2,705 5,930 6,900 7,170 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,726 9,279 9,677 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,325 1,378 1,370 1,071 1,085 1,092 2,419 2,455 2,455 European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,800 13,800 13,500 10,050 10,250 9,850 25,220 25,300 24,700 Other 9,644 10,238 10,553 5,585 6,056 6,274 9,395 10,052 11,026 World Total 39,240 39,599 40,024 28,115 29,276 29,111 70,790 71,386 72,728 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) ,837 2,763 2,016 1,340 1,340 1,040 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) , Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) ,871 1,112 1,212 Other ,123 1,179 1,054 World Total ,490 4,281 3,454 6,886 4,684 4,611

20 Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Marketing Year 2015/ / /16 Production Argentina (Mar-Feb) 2,700 3,400 3,400 1,141 1,325 1,285 1,142 1,312 1,300 Russia (Sep-Aug) 9,173 10,858 11,000 3,510 4,146 4,311 3,530 4,171 4,337 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,100 1,320 1, Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 11,900 14,200 14,500 4,811 5,699 5,782 5,010 5,934 6,020 European Union (Oct-Sep) 7,720 8,353 8,380 3,888 4,158 4,077 3,042 3,253 3,190 Other 7,917 8,180 8,111 2,491 2,676 2,809 2,145 2,288 2,422 World Total 40,510 46,311 46,816 16,584 18,912 19,199 15,450 17,668 18,000 Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,296 3,900 4,000 1,392 1,500 1,700 Other ,857 2,341 2,346 4,847 5,764 5,764 World Total 1,836 2,054 1,921 5,962 7,166 7,151 6,929 8,176 8,326 Exports Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) ,211 1,600 1,600 1,540 2,000 2,100 Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) ,817 4,900 4,800 4,500 5,400 5,400 European Union (Oct-Sep) Other 1,041 1,260 1, World Total 2,002 2,298 2,149 6,219 7,626 7,556 8,108 9,514 9,479 Argentina (Mar-Feb) 2,834 3,254 3, Russia (Sep-Aug) 9,070 10,620 11,020 2,250 2,550 2,750 1,950 2,115 2,230 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,452 1,762 1,822 1,550 1,750 1, ,000 Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 11,810 13,960 14, , European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,220 8,740 8,590 7,000 7,900 7,800 4,160 4,310 4,560 Other 7,445 7,721 7,959 4,124 4,764 4,878 6,776 7,548 7,718 World Total 40,831 46,057 46,705 16,304 18,534 18,848 15,139 16,295 16,880 Ending Stocks Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total 2,286 2,296 2,179 1,299 1,217 1,163 1,535 1,570 1,537

21 Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Marketing Year 2015/ / /16 Production China (Oct-Sep) 2,816 2,880 2,992 1,091 1,106 1, India (Oct-Sep) 875 1,252 1,320 1,256 1,160 1,300 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,320 1,800 2,215 Other 1,625 1,620 1,626 1,568 1,645 1, World Total 5,438 5,894 6,083 4,321 4,383 4,864 3,118 2,547 3,117 China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total China (Oct-Sep) 2,919 3,004 3,117 1,090 1,101 1, India (Oct-Sep) 874 1,160 1,290 1,275 1,165 1,310 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,570 1,520 1,670 Other 1,427 1,422 1,422 1,624 1,653 1, World Total 5,439 5,801 6,047 4,377 4,348 4,806 2,820 2,755 2,929 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total

22 Table 15: World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Area Harvested Beginning Stocks Productio n Total Supply Exports Food Use Dom. Domestic Consumpti Ending Stocks Major Oilseeds 2004/ / / / / / / / / / / / Major Protein Meals 2004/ / / / / / / / / / / / Major Vegetable Oils 2004/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years