Economic and Financial Outlook
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1 Economic and Financial Outlook Euro Area October 2017
2 Summary Robust GDP growth in Euro Area, but subdued inflation Spanish GDP growth has stabilized at elevated rates Short View of France and Italy Scenarios Risks to current scenario
3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q index Q = 100 Robust GDP growth in Euro Area economies Most EMU countries has recovered previous GDP levels and are growing well above potential rates 115,0 Real GDP growth in EMU Countries EMU Spain France Italy Belgium 110,0 105,0 100,0 95,0 The big exception would be Italy. Meanwhile Spain has had a slow start, but it s now a main engine of EMU GDP growth 90,0 Source: Thomson Reuters. 3
4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Robust GDP growth in Euro Area economies Business and households sentiment has broadly rebounded to pre-crisis levels 120,0 Economic Sentiment Indicator EMU Spain France Italy Belgium 80,0 Citi Economic Surprise Index for Europe 115,0 60,0 110,0 105,0 100,0 40,0 20,0 95,0 0,0 90,0 85,0 80,0-20,0-40,0 75,0-60,0 70,0-80,0 Source: Thomson Reuters. Source: Bloomberg. 4
5 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ene-08 jul-08 ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13 ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 ene-17 jul-17 contribution to GDP growth q/q (p.p.) (%) y/y Robust GDP growth in Euro Area economies Consumption has not being the main growth engine in the region 1,0 0,8 0,6 Real EMU GDP Growth composition Consumption Gov expenditure Gross investment Net Exports 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 Retail Trade ex. Motor vehicles Euro area Spain France Italy 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2 0,0-2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-0,4-10,0-12,0 Source: Thomson Reuters. 5
6 Jan-98 Nov-98 Sep-99 Jul-00 May-01 Mar-02 Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Jul-10 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 Jul-15 May-16 Mar-17 Jan-18 Nov-18 core CPI (%) y/y scale inverted unemployment rate (%) but subdued inflation through main countries Core inflation has consistently been below 2,0% during current cycle, in spite of labor market getting tighter 3,0 Unemployment rate vs Inflation Core CPI Unemployment rate 6 2,5 7 2,0 1,5 1, Persistently low prices have been a significant support for consumption so far and have allowed ECB to keep the stimulus 0,5 12 0,0 13 Source: Thomson Reuters and Bankia Research. 6
7 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 ECB stimulus has been key to solve the sovereign crisis and sustain recovery Expectations of slower but longer QE; Do not expect a s/t interest rate rise until early ECB QE program Monthly asset purchases (bn. ) Short term interest rates Long term interest rates Exchange rates Forecast Current Variation Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Oct /current 2018/2017 EMU 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 USA 0,50-0,75 1,25-1,50 2,00-2,25 1,00-1,25 0,25 0,75 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Oct /current 2018/2017 Germany 0,21 0,65 1,25 0,46 0,19 0,60 Spain 1,38 1,95 2,40 1,70 0,25 0,45 USA 2,44 2,50 3,00 2,35 0,15 0,50 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Oct /current 2018/2017 Eur/usd 1,05 1,21 1,26 1,171 3,3% 4,1% Usd/jpy 117,0 111,0 115,0 112,8-1,6% 3,6% Source: Bloomberg 7
8 Spanish GDP growth has stabilized at elevated rates Consumption had been a growth engine since 2016, thanks to labor market improvement 8
9 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 y/y rate of change (%) Spanish GDP growth has stabilized at elevated rates Consumption loans have rebounded since 2015 what shows the strength of households expenditure Consumer lending Stock New loans Source: BdE & Bankia Research 9
10 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q contribution to GDP growth (p.p.) t/t index 100 = Q France s economy recovered thanks to the internal demand Macron s electoral victory creates a unique opportunity to transform France s economy 1,4 1,2 1,0 France GDP Growth composition External demand Domestic demand 125,0 120,0 Unit Labor Costs EMU Germany France Italy Spain 0,8 0,6 115,0 0,4 0,2 110,0 0,0-0,2 105,0-0,4 100,0-0,6-0,8 95,0 Source: Thomson Reuters. Source: Eurostat and Bankia Research. 10
11 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 (%) y/y index 100 = Q Italy GDP growth has been considerably below Euro Area peers The urgent priorities are to raise productivity and growth 4,0 2,0 Real GDP growth EMU Italy 115,0 113,0 111,0 Real labor productivity per hour worked Euro area Spain France Italy 0,0 109,0 107,0-2,0 105,0-4,0 103,0 101,0-6,0 99,0 97,0-8,0 95,0 Source: Thomson Reuters and Bankia Research. Source: Eurostat. 11
12 Brexit Effects Noise at the political scenario Right-far parties impulse in Central Europe Nationalisms upsurge Common risks to the current scenario Lack of advances is increasing uncertainty ECB gets it wrong Biggest threat is the Catalonian Secession crisis; but it is not the only case in Europe. Persistent low productivity growth Lack of advances in supply-side reforms 12
13 Nationalism surge threat in Europe Catalonia secessionist conflict is the major challenge to current Spanish outlook 13
14 Nationalism surge threat in Europe Catalonia secessionist conflict is the major challenge to current Spanish outlook 14
15 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nationalism surge threat in Europe Catalonia secessionist conflict is the major challenge to current Spanish outlook 3,60 Catalonian Premium Risk Catalonian vs Spanish bond yield maturity Feb ,60 Spanish Debt Premium Risk Spanish vs German 10-yrs bond yield 3,40 1,50 3,20 1,40 3,00 1,30 2,80 1,20 2,60 1,10 2,40 1,00 2,20 0,90 2,00 0,80 Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. 15
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