US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. Vail R. Brown Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing

Transcription

1 US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Vail R. Brown Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing

2 Global RevPAR % Change UK H1 8 YE 8 L3M 9 YTD 2.5%.4% 1.2% 11.3% United States $ H1 8 YE 8 L3M 9 YTD 1.6% 1.9% 14.3% 18.7% Europe H1 8 YE 8 L3M 9 YTD.4% 5.1% 19.2% 2.8% Asia Pacific $ H1 8 YE 8 L3M 9 YTD 12.5% 1.8% 24.4% 3.3% ME & A $ H1 8 YE 8 L3M 9 YTD 25.7% 17% 12.6% 14.9% Note: L3M = December 8 to February 9; 9 YTD = through May 9 Source: 29 STR Global

3 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to May % % Supply % Change -4.8% Demand % Change -5.1% Smith Travel Research, Inc.

4 Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Phase May 29 May 28 Difference % Change In Construction 158,752 26,446-47, % Final Planning 66,316 16,5-39, % Planning 297,71 359,466-61, % Active Pipeline 522, , , % Pre-Planning 123, ,728-35, % Total 646,24 83,69-184, % Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

5 12 Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to May Occ % Chg ADR % Chg.1% -2.7% % -4.7% -6.8% -7.8% Smith Travel Research, Inc.

6 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to May % RevPAR % Chg -1.5% % 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

7 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Full Year 28 / May 29 YTD YTD Supply Demand Occ ADR RevPAR YUCK!.but with that said. 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

8 Total United States Weekday / Weekend Percent Change June 13 th 29 YTD 5-5 Weekday Weekend Weekends = Friday / Saturday Occ ADR RevPAR 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

9 $11 Total United States Room Rate - Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2-27 If year 2 ADR had increased by CPI each year $13.97 $12.76 $1 Nominal ADR Yr 2, Grown by CPI $93.48 $96.65 $99.77 $97.96 $91.6 $91.14 $9 $85.22 $83.99 $87.64 $82.75 $89.3 $82.94 $86.39 $ Rate Cuts on 1 Were Felt for 6 Years

10 A Little Positive News OR Less Bad News

11 Total United States Hotel Rooms Sold vs. ADR Change Quarterly Change 1988 to Q Demand % Chg ADR % CHG q1 1991q1 1994q1 1997q1 2q1 23q1 26q1 29 q Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline

12 Total United States Monthly Room Demand (In Millions) Seasonally Adjusted January 21 to May Smith Travel Research, Inc.

13 Total United States Monthly ADR Seasonally Adjusted January 21 to May Seas Adj Smith Travel Research, Inc.

14 Total United States 28 Day Moving Average - Demand & ADR % Change Jan 1, 29 June 13, 29 Demand ADR 1/1/9 1/31/9 3/2/9 4/1/9 5/1/9 5/31/9 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

15 1 Total United States Top 25 markets vs. All Other 28 Day Moving Average - Demand % Change Jan 1, 29 June 13, 29 Top 25 Mkt All Other /1/9 1/31/9 3/2/9 4/1/9 5/1/9 5/31/9 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

16 Total United States Top 25 markets vs. All Other 28 Day Moving Average - ADR % Change Jan 1, 29 June 13, 29 1 Top 25 Mkt All Other /1/9 1/31/9 3/2/9 4/1/9 5/1/9 5/31/9 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

17 Group vs. Transient Performance

18 Upper Tier Segments 28 Day Moving Average - Group & Transient Demand % Change Jan 31, 28 June 13, Group Demand Transient Demand /31/8 6/13/9 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

19 Upper Tier Segments 28 Day Moving Average - Group & Transient ADR % Change Jan 31, 28 June 13, Group ADR Transient ADR -2 1/31/8 6/13/9 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

20 Upper Tier Segments Difference Transient vs. Group Actual ADR ($) Jan 8 May 29 $11 $9 $7 $5 $3 $1 -$1 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 -$ Smith Travel Research, Inc.

21 Group - Occupancy / ADR Performance Weekday / Weekend May 29 YTD Weekday Weekend Occupancy ADR 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

22 Transient - Occupancy / ADR Performance Weekday / Weekend May 29 YTD Weekday Weekend Occupancy ADR 29 Smith Travel Research, Inc.

23 U.S. Lodging Industry Chain Scales

24 Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change May 29 YTD Luxury Supply Demand Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

25 Chain Scales Weekday vs. Weekend Occupancy Percent Change Jan 1 st through June 13 th, Luxury Upper Upscale Weekday Weekend Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

26 Chain Scales Weekday vs.. Weekend ADR Percent Change Jan 1 st through June 13 th, Luxury Upper Upscale Weekday Weekend Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy

27

28 U.S. Lodging Industry Projections As of April 22 nd, 29

29 Total United States Consecutive Quarterly Declines Key Indicators 199/ / 22 Current (Q1-9) Estimate 28/9 Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Room Revenue Smith Travel Research, Inc.

30 Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 23 21P Supply % Chg 1.3 Demand % Chg P 21P 2 Yr Average

31 Total United States Occupancy Percent 23 21P P 21P

32 Total United States ADR Percent Change 23 21P Year Average: 3.5% P 21P

33 Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 23 21P Year Average: 2.9% P 21P

34 Takeaways Decline is Global visibility becoming better Risk averse / capital tight - supply increases slow Value proposition is critical New Frugality Summer travel may show relative improvement Leisure/Upper End leads rebound?

35 Hotel Data Conference August 4 5, 29 Renaissance Nashville Hotel Brought to you by STR and HotelNewsNow.com Meet and interact with our speakers, panelists and other STR data users Agenda topics include industry forecasts, travel trends, demand drivers and industry cycles, data overviews and best practices using STR data Visit for details, online registration and sponsorship opportunities.