Bob Costello American Trucking Associations

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1 Bob Costello American Trucking Associations

2 Economic & Trucking Industry Update August 7, 2018 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Senior Vice President of International Trade Policy & Cross-Border Ops American Trucking

3 Business Cycles U.S. Expansions Duration October July 1953 May August 1957 April April 1960 February December 1969 November November 1973 March January 1980 July July 1981 December July 1990 March March 2001 November December 2007 June Current 109+ Average Months Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research and ATA

4 Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 4% 3% 2.7% 3.0% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2% 1.5% 1% 0% Avg Avg Sources: BEA & ATA

5 The Drivers of Truck Freight, Plus Inventories 7.0 Unemployment Rate (Percent) 1.4 Total Housing Starts (Millions) 106 Factory Output (Index) 1.45 Inventory to Sales Ratio Sources: BLS, Census, and Federal Reserve

6 Monthly Job Changes (Thousands) Job Market 7.0 Unemployment Rate (Percent) % 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% Sources: BLS & ATA

7 Thousands U.S. Economy is at Full-Employment 16,000 Unemployed and Job Openings 14,000 12,000 10,000 Unemployed Job Openings 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Sources: Department of Labor

8 5% 4.7% Employment Costs Wages & Salaries 4% 3% 3.2% 2.5% Benefits 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.2% 2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1% 0% Avg Avg Sources: BLS & ATA

9 Real Personal Consumption Growth (Goods Only) 5% 4.6% 4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.7% 3% 3.3% 3.0% 2% 1% 0% Avg Sources: BEA & ATA

10 Single-Family Housing Starts Will Continue Their Upward Climb Total Housing Starts (Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions) Single-Family vs Multi-Family Units (Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions) Single-Family Multi-Family Sources: Census & ATA H.S M 1.18 M 1.21 M 1.34 M 1.41 M

11 Factory Output is Stronger Factory Output (Index) 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Factory Output (Year-over-Year Percent) Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA Output 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 2.9% 3.3%

12 Total Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio (Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not price changes) Likely Optimal Range Source: Census Bureau

13 Biggest Risk? A Trade War

14 Tariff Update Section 301 Tariffs on Chinese Products Response to unfair trade practices related to the forced transfer of U.S. technology and intellectual property. China retaliated and then the U.S. added second round of tariffs Section 232 Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum, including CA, MX, and EU Canada imposing tariffs on $12.8 billion in U.S. goods effective July 1 in response EU to impose tariffs on $3.4 billion of U.S. goods going to EU members Mexico placed tariffs on $3 billion worth of U.S. goods Administration launching a Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of auto imports

15 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 The Economic Risks to Trucking: Trade Wars 2017 U.S. Trucking Employment From Truck Transported NAFTA Trade Non-Drivers Drivers 15,677 $7.0 $6.0 $ U.S. Trucking Revenue From Truck Transported NAFTA Trade (Billions) 47,031 $ ,000 26,981 $4.0 $ ,000 20,000 15,000 20,234 6,683 8,994 31,354 $3.0 $2.0 $ ,000 5,000 13,366 17,988 $1.0 0 Canada Mexico Total $0.0 Canada Mexico Total Source: American Trucking Associations Economics Department

16 Freight Remains Very Strong (With Year-Over-Year Comparisons Becoming More Difficult)

17 Total For-Hire TL Loads Index: January 2010=100; 3-Month Moving Average Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck

18 8% For-Hire Truckload Loads 7% 6% Total TL Dry Van 6.0% 6.4% 5.3% 7.1% 5% 4% 3% 2% 3.0% 2.1% 1% 0% 0.1% 0.8% Q YOY 1st Half 2018 YOY Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

19 Total For-Hire TL Miles Index: 2010=100; Seasonally Adjusted; 3-Month Moving Average Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck

20 Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Dry Van Truckload Average Length-Of-Haul Continues to Fall

21 Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report LTL Tonnage Index: 2010=100; 3-Month Moving Average

22 Industry Capacity Remains Very Constrained

23 US Retail Class 8 Truck Sales Thousands Includes Tractors & Straight Trucks Source: ATA s American Trucking Trends 2016 & ACT Research

24 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% For-Hire TL Tractor Changes: Large vs Small Fleets Includes company tractors and independent contractor equipment YTD 5.1% -1.0% -3.0% -1.9% -0.2% -1.0% -5.0% -7.0% -5.0% -5.0% Large TLs Small Fleet: Less than $30 million in annual revenue Small TLs Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

25 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Public Truckload Fleet Capacity 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Including owner operators, capacity at public fleets is 11% below peak 3Q06 levels; And -7.1% since Q ,000 30,000 Note: Source Key Banc. Includes CGI, CVTI, JBHT, KNX (including SWFT), MRTN, USAK, and WERN (excluding acquisitions, if applicable).

26 Contract For-Hire Truckload Revenue per Mile x FSC Year-Over-Year Growth Q Jan-Jun 2018 Dry Van -3.4% 0.1% 16.0% 18.2% Temp Controlled 1.6% 3.4% 9.5% 12.3% Flatbed -3.0% 2.3% 10.9% 10.9% Tank Truck -1.7% 4.5% 12.8% 15.8% Short-Haul (<500 miles) -0.6% 2.0% 16.6% 17.9% Long-Haul (>1,000 miles) -15.4% 3.7% 12.3% 12.8% Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

27 Rates and Rate Proxies: Contract vs Spot Index: January 2010=100; 3-Month Moving Average Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report & DAT.com Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck Contract = For-Hire Truckload Average Revenue per Mile x FSC

28 Contract For-Hire Truckload Revenue per Mile x FSC Year-Over-Year Growth Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck Contract = For-Hire Truckload Average Revenue per Mile x FSC

29 Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report LTL Truck Counts (Index: 2015 = 100)

30 7% 6% 5% LTL Revenue per Ton Year-over-Year Percent Change 5.2% 6.5% 4% 3% 2% 1.4% 1% 0% 0.0% -1% Q Jan-Jun 2018 Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report

31 The Driver Situation Remains Very Difficult

32 Truck Driver Turnover Rates 100% 83% 98% 96% 95% 93% 81% 87% 94% 75% 50% 50% 52% 25% 0% 8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 9% 9% 10% Q TL LTL Source: ATA

33 The driver shortage is primarily an over-the-road for-hire truckload issue. So how many drivers are in that space? 10 Million CDL Holders 3.5 Million Truck Drivers 1.7 Million Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Drivers 870,000 For-Hire Trucking Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Drivers Based on government data, ATA estimates that there are roughly 500,000 OTR for-hire TL drivers. Source: U.S. Department of Labor

34 Driver Shortage 51,000 Source: ATA s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017

35 Source: ATA s Truck Driver Shortage Analysis 2017

36 Source: ATA s 2017 Driver Compensation Study ATA Driver Compensation Study

37 WHAT ELSE CAN BE DONE? DRIVE-Safe Act Improve driver efficiency/driving time Reduce driver waiting times 8,500/month to 9,000 = 5.9% 8,500/month to 9,500 = 11.8% Female Drivers

38 Download ATA s Report for Free at:

39 Go to

40 Thanks Questions?

41 Welcome

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Intermodal Freight Transportation Institute October 30, 2012

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