Hotel Performance Outlook North Dakota Travel Industry Conference

Transcription

1 Hotel Performance Outlook North Dakota Travel Industry Conference Kelsey Waite Business Development Executive, 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 HotelNewsNow.com

3 Total US Performance Canada Performance North Dakota State Trends North Dakota Markets Competitive Market Comparisons Look to the Future

4 Key Terms Supply: Number of Rooms Available Demand: Number of Rooms Sold Revenue: Rooms Revenue before Taxes

5 Key Terms Occupancy: Demand/Supply ADR (Average Daily Rate): Revenue/Demand RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): Revenue/Supply

6 Total US Performance

7 Total US - Key Statistics Year End 2016 % Change Hotels 53 k Room Supply 1.8 bil 1.4% Room Demand 1.2 bil 1.7% Occupancy 65.5% 0.1% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $149 tril 4.8%

8 Total United States Room Supply in Billions Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to February Jan Bil Jul Bil Jul Bil

9 Total United States Room Demand in Billions Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to February Jan Mil March Mil Jan Mil

10 Total United States Occupancy and ADR Twelve Month Moving Average February Prior Peak: 64.5% Feb 97 Occupancy (%) ADR ($) Prior Peak: $ Sept 08 $ Feb' % Feb'

11 Total United States RevPAR Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to February 2017 $90 $80 Feb 17 $81.40 $70 $60 $50 $40 Mar 01 $53.93 Jul 08 $66.02 Mar 10 $53.26 $

12 Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change February YTD Supply Demand Revenue Occupancy ADR RevPAR

13 Total US - Key Statistics YTD February 2017 % Change Hotels 53 k Room Supply mil 1.9% Room Demand mil 1.8% Occupancy 57.4% -0.1% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $208 bn 4.3%

14 Total Canada Performance

15 Total Canada - Key Statistics Year End 2016 in USD $ $ % 64.5% $68.53 $71.92 Occupancy ADR RevPAR

16 Total Canada - Key Statistics Percent Change Year End % 5% 4.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.6% Supply Demand Revenue Occupancy ADR RevPAR

17 Total Canada Key Statistics Year to Date February 2017 in USD $ % $55.87 Occupancy ADR RevPAR

18 North Dakota Performance

19 Total North Dakota - Key Statistics Year End 2016 % Change Hotels 318 Room Supply 8.97 mil 3.7% Room Demand 4.5 mil -5.6% Occupancy 50.3% -9.1% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $375.1 mil -16.1% Previous Peak in Hotels was Aug 2016: 24,718

20 Total North Dakota Year End 2016 vs $93.69 $ % 50.3% $51.75 $41.83 Occupancy ADR RevPAR

21 Total North Dakota Supply in Millions 12 Month Moving Average February Million Million Million

22 Total North Dakota Demand in Millions 12 Month Moving Average February Feb M Oct M May M July M

23 Total North Dakota Supply/Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average February Supply Demand Sept % Jan % June % April %

24 Total North Dakota Occupancy and ADR 12 Month Moving Average February Occupancy ADR Nov 12 $ May 11 $82.12 Feb 17 $ Jan %

25 Total North Dakota RevPAR 12 Month Moving Average February Aug 12 $76.84 Jan 15 $ April 08 $ Jan 17 $

26 Total North Dakota - Key Statistics YTD February 2017 % Change Hotels 318 Room Supply 1.4 mil 0.9% Room Demand 621, % Occupancy 42.9% 10.6% ADR $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $51.1 mil 4.5% Previous Peak in Hotels was Aug 2016: 24,718

27 North Dakota Submarkets

28 North Dakota Submarkets Census Data February 2017 North Dakota Area Hotels: 222 Rooms: 15,902 Bismarck Hotels: 39 Rooms: 3,510 Fargo/Moorhead Hotels: 63 Rooms: 5,586

29 North Dakota Submarkets Occupancy Year End 2015 vs % 64.9% 61.5% 55.2% 57.5% 50.3% 51.0% 44.4% Total ND ND Area Bismarck Fargo

30 North Dakota Submarkets Average Daily Rate Year End 2015 vs $93.69 $96.09 $93.45 $83.23 $79.78 $89.34 $86.96 $85.99 Total ND ND Area Bismarck Fargo

31 North Dakota Submarkets RevPAR Year End 2015 vs $59.72 $58.02 $51.75 $48.98 $53.48 $49.47 $41.83 $35.45 Total ND ND Area Bismarck Fargo

32 North Dakota Submarkets Revenue in Millions Year End 2015 vs $447 $ $276 $207 $75 $74 $105 $102 Total ND ND Area Bismarck Fargo

33 Comparison to Competitors

34 Occupancy Year End % 64.1% 57.2% 58.5% 59.1% 53.6% 50.3% North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba Saskatchewan

35 Occupancy Percent Change Year End North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba -8.1 Saskatchewan

36 Average Daily Rate Year End 2016 in USD $ $ $95.91 $92.04 $93.63 $89.49 $83.23 North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba Saskatchewan

37 Average Daily Rate Percent Change Year End North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba Saskatchewan

38 RevPAR Year End 2016 in USD $63.21 $59.35 $56.68 $57.36 $52.69 $50.15 $41.83 North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba Saskatchewan

39 RevPAR Percent Change Year End North Dakota South Dakota Texas Montana West North Central Manitoba Saskatchewan

40 Look to the Future

41 North Dakota Hotel Development Pipeline Construction Phase Properties Rooms In Construction Final Planning Planning Totals Pipeline by Phase, February 2017 North Dakota

42 Under Construction Projects 96 Rooms Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham (Fargo) Comfort Suites (Williston) 90 Rooms 107 Rooms Homewood Suites (West Fargo Sanford Medical Center)

43 Price of Oil Marks ND Room Demand Growth YOY % Change Demand in North Dakota Feb 2017 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Crude Oil Futures Price / Barrel Room Demand % Change *Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. North Dakota Room Demand % Change 1/ /2016

44 2017 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets

45 Total US Forecast Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F 2018F

46 Questions? Presentation is available for download. To view this presentation, click STR Data Presentations from the drop-down menu on STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

47 Thank You! Kelsey Waite (615) ext STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.