US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW. Jan D. Freitag Vice President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
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1 US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Jan D. Freitag Vice President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
2 Agenda Total US Overview Scales and Major Markets Pipeline Projections
3 U.S. Lodging Industry - Key Statistics June 2008 YTD (Prelim) % Change Hotels 49, % Room Supply 4.5mm 2.2% Room Demand 2.7mm - 0.4% Occupancy 61.5% -2.6% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $ % Room Revenue $54.3B 3.9%
4 Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to May % 4.0% 4.2% 4 1.8% % Supply % Change Demand % Change -4.8% 1.0% A Year Ago Fundamentals Were Worse
5 Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to May % 7.6% Occ % Chg ADR % Chg % -0.7% ADR Growth Is Slowing. But Not Dropping Rapidly
6 Total United States Room Rate Percent Change Jan 2003 May JFMAM Summer Rate Growth Will Be Closely Watched
7 Total U.S. Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD through 7/5 10% May YTD 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 5% 0% 1.8% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.3% 5.4% 4.7% 0.6% -5% -2.2% -2.0% -3.9% -3.4% -5.8% -10% -9.6% -15% Occupancy %Chg ADR %Chg July 4 th Timing Helped and Hurt
8 Chain Scales and Major Markets
9 Chain Scales Supply/Demand Percent Change May 2008 YTD Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy Healthy Demand Growth, Except in Two Scales
10 10 Chain Scales Occupancy/ADR Percent Change May 2008 YTD Occupancy ADR Luxury -1.4 Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w F&B Mid wo F&B Economy Rate Growth Around / Above Inflation Except for Economy Segment
11 8 Chain Scale ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average January 2008 To May Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid With Mid W/O Economy Upper End Scales See ADR Deteriorate But at a High Level
12 Key 15 Markets Occupancy Percent Change May 2008 YTD Year over Year Phoenix, AZ Philadelphia, PA-NJ Atlanta, GA Dallas, TX Chicago, IL Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA All Other Markets Total United States Top 25 Markets Washington, DC-MD-VA San Diego, CA New York, NY Orlando, FL Oahu Island, HI Boston, MA Miami-Hialeah, FL San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Coastal OCC Holds So Far
13 Key 15 Markets ADR Percent Change May 2008 YTD Year over Year New York, NY Chicago, IL San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Phoenix, AZ Philadelphia, PA-NJ Boston, MA Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Top 25 Markets Oahu Island, HI Total United States Dallas, TX San Diego, CA All Other Markets Washington, DC-MD-VA Orlando, FL Atlanta, GA Miami-Hialeah, FL Strong Rate Growth Bodes Well for The Summer
14 Exchange Rate Impact on 2007 ADR % Change ADR $ % Change Currency % Change Atlanta, GA 12.7% Euro 3.4% Boston, MA 6.3% Euro -2.5% New York, NY 10.6% Euro 1.4% Orlando, FL -0.7% Euro -8.9% Washington, DC-MD-VA 3.7% Euro -4.8% Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA 9.0% Yen 4.0% Oahu Island, HI 7.4% Yen 2.5% San Diego, CA 2.9% Yen -1.9% San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 5.7% Yen 0.8% America Is On Sale!
15 U.S. Pipeline
16 Total United States Room Supply Percent Change Jan 2003 May JFMAM Summer Will See More Supply Increases
17 Total United States Active Development Pipeline (Thousands of Rooms) Change From Last Year Phase May 2008 May 2007 Difference % Change In Construction % Final Planning % Planning % Active Pipeline % Pre-Planning % Total % U/C Rooms Off The High of Dec Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
18 Total United States Rooms In Construction by Scale In Thousands May Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w F&B Mid w/o F&B Economy Unaffiliated Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline Development is in Growth Scales
19 Markets with Highest Construction Activity May 2008 Market # Rooms % of Existing Supply Las Vegas 19, New York 9, Orlando 5, Phoenix 4, Washington, DC 4, Chicago 4, LA-Long Beach, CA 3, Source: STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline The Usual Suspects
20 Projections
21 Total United States Estimated Revenue and Profitability Years Revenue GOP Income % % 40.2% % % % % 35.0% 36.6% % 41.3% 41.3% 45% 40% 60 35% % %
22 Total U.S. Hotel Rooms Sold vs. GDP Change Quarterly Change 1988 to Q GDP % Chg Demand % Chg q1 1992q1 1995q1 1998q1 2001q1 2004q1 2007q1-8
23 5 Total U.S. Supply/Demand Percent Change P Supply % Chg 4.0 Demand % Chg P 2009P 20 Yr Average
24 4 Total U.S. Occupancy Percent Change P Year Average: -0.1% P 2009P
25 Total US Occupancy Percent P P 2009P
26 7 5 3 Total U.S. ADR Percent Change P 20 Year Average: 3.5% P 2009P
27 10 Total U.S. RevPAR Percent Change P Year Average: 3.4% P 2009P
28 2008 Lodging Industry Takeaways Accelerating Supply Growth Pipeline Attrition? Slowing Economy = Slower Demand Growth Top Markets may outperform Weak Dollar = U.S. Bargain Leisure feels greater impact than business? Revenue Management Discipline?
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