The U.S. Economic Recovery: Chain Scale Segments, Top 25 Markets, Demand Segments and Profits
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1 NEW YORK UNIVERSITY School of Continuing and Professional Studies Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism, and Sports Management The U.S. Economic Recovery: Chain Scale Segments, Top 25 Markets, Demand Segments and Profits The Fourth in a Series of NYU Tisch Center Economic Briefings February 2010
2 Steven M. Lambert, M.A. Director of Administration and Industry Relations NYU Tisch Center
3 Bjorn Hanson, Ph.D. Clinical Associate Professor NYU Tisch Center
4 Agenda 1. U.S. Recessions 2. U.S. Lodging Industry: Cycles and Performance 3. Analysis of U.S. Lodging grecoveries 4. U.S. Lodging RevPAR Trends: Implications for this Recovery 5. Two RevPAR Recovery Analyses 6. RevPAR Forecasts 7. Structural Changes 8. Conclusions
5 Section 1 U.S. Recessions
6 U.S. Recessions Dates Duration Aug to March 1933 May 1937 to June 1938 Feb to Oct Nov to Oct months 13 months 8 months 11 months July 1953 to May months Aug to April 1958 April 1960 to Feb Dec to Nov Nov to March 1975 Jan to July 1980 July 1981 to Nov July 1990 to March 1991 March 2001 to Nov December 2007 to Feb *To date Source: National Bureau of Economic Research 8 months 10 months 11 months 16 months 6 months 16 months 8 months 8 months 26 months*
7 For further information on The U.S. Economy, the Stock Market and its Effect on the Lodging Industry, please refer to the Tisch Center NYU February Podcast at:
8 Section 2 The U.S. Lodging Industry: Cycles and Performance Rl Relative to Recessions
9 Long-Term U.S. Occupancy Occupancy Percentage 95% 90% % Long-Term Trend 63.34% (81 Years) 1987 to 2007 Trend 62.7% (20 Years) 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% % % % 60% 55% 50% % % % % '00 '03 '06 ' % Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (1928 to 1986 and 2008), Smith Travel Research (1987 to 2009). Sources: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (1928 to 1986 and 2008), Smith Travel Research (1987 to 2009)
10 Timeline of Recessions & Historic Events 1962 Cuban Missile 2002 U.S. invasion Ci Crisisi of Iraq Korean 1963 Oil Embargo 1982 War Ends 1991 JFK Falklands War Persian Gulf War Assassinated 2003 SARS First domestic jet airline 1963 LBJ Expands War in Vietnam 1979 Iranian Oil Day War in Crisis Middle East 1987 Black Monday 1991 USSR Collapse 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing 1991 Yugoslav Wars 2001 September 11 th Attacks 2008 H1N Lehman Brothers Chapter Bear Stearns Collapse
11 U.S. Lodging Demand and Recessions Source: National Bureau of Economic Research & Smith Travel Research
12 U.S. Recessions and Lodging gcycles U.S. Recessions Months Lodging Cycles Months Dec to Nov Feb to Feb Nov to March Aug to May Jan to July Oct July 1981 to Nov to May July 1990 to March Feb to March March 2001 to Nov Sept to Sept Dec 2007 to Feb Source: Smith Travel Research and National Bureau of Economic Research
13 Section 3 US U.S. Lodging Recoveries
14 Definitions of Recovery 1. Return to a prior trend line 2. Favorable trend following a trough 3. Return to a prior performance level
15 3. Return to a prior performance level Years from trough to recovery Years from from trough to recovery Years from prior peak to recovery Years from prior peak to recovery 2/5 years
16 Total U.S. Lodging Industry
17 Total U.S. Occupancy 1969 Recession 1991 Recession 2007 Recession Recession 1980 Recession 2001 Recession Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage Years Prior to Years Past Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
18 Total U.S. Nominal ADR 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1973 Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
19 Total U.S. Real ADR 1991 Recession 2001 Recession Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
20 Total U.S. Nominal RevPAR 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1973 Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession evpar $ Indexed R Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
21 Total U.S. Real RevPAR 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1973 Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession Indexed RevPAR $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
22 Total U.S. Demand 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1973 Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
23 Total U.S. Supply 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1973 Recession 1980 Recession 2007 Recession Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
24 Total U.S. Supply Change Per rcent Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
25 US U.S. Lodging Chain Scale Segments
26 Graphs Provided For: Total U.S. Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Midscale with Food and Beverage Midscale without Food and Beverage Economy Top 25 Markets Graphs Of: Occupancy Nominal Average Daily Rate Real Average Daily Rate Nominal RevPAR Real RevPAR Supply Supply Percentage Change Demand
27 Luxury Occupancy 2007 Recession 2006: 71.5% 4/8 years Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage 1997: 74.1% 1988: 67.1% 1.5/4.5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
28 Luxury Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ 2007: $ /4.5 years 2000: $ :.25/1.25 years $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
29 Luxury Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ 2000: $ : $ /4.5years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
30 Luxury Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2007: $ evpar $ Indexed R 2000: $ : $ /5 years.5/1.5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
31 Luxury Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ 2/5 years Indexed R 2000: $ : $ /1.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
32 Luxury Demand Millions : Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : /1.25 years 2000: /1.5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
33 Luxury Supply Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : million /1.25 years 1994: million Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
34 Luxury Supply Change 1988 Percent Source: Smith Travel Research
35 Upper Upscale Occupancy 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession pancy Perce ntage In ndexed Occu : 71.2% 5/7 years 2000: 72.2% 1.5/3.5 years 1991: 66.2% Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
36 Upper Upscale Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ 2008: 2000: $ $ /4.75 years 1990:.5/1.5 years $92.29 Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
37 Upper Upscale Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 130 Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : 110 $ : $ : 1.75/ 4.75 years 90 $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
38 Upper Upscale Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 140 evpar $ Indexed R : $ : $ /5.25 years 1990: 1.25/2.25 years $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
39 Upper Upscale Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ 2000: $ : $ /5 years Indexed R 1990: $ /1.50 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
40 Upper Upscale Demand Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : /3.75 years :.25/1.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
41 Upper Upscale Supply Millions 1991 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2008: : /3 1.5/3.55 years 2002: Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
42 Upper Upscale Supply Change Per rcent Source: Smith Travel Research
43 Upscale Occupancy 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : 70.3% I ndexed Occu upancy Perce entage : 70.8% 1994: 1/2 years 73.1% Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
44 Upscale Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ 2000: $ : $ /4.5 years 1990:.5/1.5 years $68.59 Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
45 Upscale Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 2007 Recession 130 Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : $ : $ /4.5 years 1990: $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
46 Upscale Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2007: $ /4 1.5/4.55 years evpar $ Indexed R 2000: $ : $ /1.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
47 Upscale Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 135 evpar $ : $ : $ /4.5 years Indexed R : $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
48 Upscale Demand Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
49 Upscale Supply Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
50 Upscale Supply Change rcent Per Source: Smith Travel Research
51 Midscale with F&B Occupancy I ndexed Occu upancy Perce entage 2006: 59.5% : 60.3% 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 3/6 years : 62.6% 4/6 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
52 Midscale with F&B Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : 2000: $88.33 $ /4 years 1991: $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
53 Midscale with F&B Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : 2000: $84.92 $ /4 years 1991: $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
54 Midscale with F&B Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ : $ : $ /4.5 years Indexed R : 1.5/2.5 years $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
55 Midscale with F&B Real RevPAR Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ Indexed R : 2000: $49.13 $ /4.5 years 1990:.5/1.5 years $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
56 Midscale with F&B Demand Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : : /2.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
57 Midscale with F&B Supply Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : c : 2000: /2.5 years 1994: Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
58 Midscale with F&B Supply Change rcent Per Source: Smith Travel Research
59 Midscale Without F&B Occupancy 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : 66.10% Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage % 15/5 1.5/5.55 years 1989: 65.9%.25/2.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
60 Midscale Without F&B Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 135 Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : $ : 1.5/2.5 years 1990: $67.51 $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
61 Midscale Without F&B Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : $ /1.25 years 1990: $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
62 Midscale Without F&B Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 135 evpar $ Indexed R : $ /3.5 years 2000: $ : $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
63 Midscale Without F&B Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ Indexed R 2007: $ /4.25 years 2000: $ : $38.60 Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
64 Midscale Without F&B Demand Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
65 Midscale Without F&B Supply Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2008: : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
66 Midscale without F&B Supply Change rcent Per Source: Smith Travel Research
67 Economy Occupancy 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage : 58.5% 1989: 64.7% 2005: 57.4% 3/6 years 2/5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
68 Economy Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 120 ate $ Indexed Ave erage Daily R : $ : $ : $ /2.75 years.5/4.5 5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
69 Economy Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ 1991: $ : $ :.5/1.5 years $46.07 Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
70 Economy Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2007: $30.62 evpar $ Indexed R 2000: $ /3.5 years 1989: $ /5.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
71 Economy Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession evpar $ Indexed R 2007: $ : $ /4.5 years 1989: $ /4.75 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
72 Economy Demand Millions 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : /6 years 1990: Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
73 Economy Supply Millions : Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : /1.5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
74 Economy Supply Change rcent Per Source: Smith Travel Research
75 Top 25 Markets
76 Top 25 Markets Occupancy 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage : 68.02% 2/5 years : % 104 2/4.25 years 1990: % Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
77 U.S. Top 25 Markets Nominal ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 135 Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : $ : $ : $ /4.5 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
78 U.S. Top 25 Markets Real ADR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 140 Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ : $ : $ : $ /4 1.25/4.25 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
79 U.S. Top 25 Markets Nominal RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 140 evpar $ Indexed R : $ : $ : $ /4.5 years.75/1.75 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
80 U.S. Top 25 Markets Real RevPAR 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 140 evpar $ Indexed R : $ : $ : $ /4.75 years.5/1.50 years Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
81 U.S. Top 25 Markets Demand Millions : Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession 2000: : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
82 U.S. Top 25 Markets Supply Millions Recession 2001 Recession 1991 Recession : : : Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
83 Top 25 Markets Supply Change Source: Smith Travel Research
84 US U.S. Top 25 Markets Cycles and Recoveries Relative to Total U.S. Lodging
85 115 Top 25 Markets and Total U.S. Occupancy Total U.S Total U.S Total U.S Top Top Top Indexed Occ cupancy Perc centage Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
86 Top 25 Markets and Total U.S. Nominal RevPAR Total U.S Total U.S Total U.S Top Top Top Indexed RevPAR $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
87 Top 25 Markets and Total U.S. Nominal ADR Top Total U.S Total U.S Top Total U.S Top Indexed Ave erage Daily Rate $ Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
88 Top 25 Markets and Total U.S. Demand Millions Total U.S Total U.S Total U.S Top Top Top Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
89 Top 25 Markets and Total U.S. Supply Millions Total U.S Total U.S Total U.S Top Top Top Years Prior to Years Post Source: Smith Travel Research
90 Total U.S. and Top 25 Market Supply Change Top 25 Markets Total U.S Source: Smith Travel Research and PricewaterouseCoopers
91 Section 4 US U.S. Lodging RevPAR PARTrends: Implications for this Recovery
92 Chain Scale Segment Recovery First to Recover 1991 Recession Occupancy Nominal ADR Real ADR Nominal RevPAR Real RevPAR Luxury Midscale w/o F&B Luxury Economy Last to Recover 1991 Recession Luxury Upscale Luxury Upper Upscale Occupancy Nominal ADR Real ADR Nominal RevPAR Real RevPAR Midscale w/f&b Upscale First to Recover 2001 Recession Midscale w/f&b Upper Upscale Midscale w/f&b Economy Occupancy Nominal ADR Real ADR Nominal RevPAR Real RevPAR Midscale w/o F&B Midscale w/f&b Midscale w/o F&B Upscale Midscale w/o F&B Economy Midscale w/f&b Upper Upscale Last to Recover 2001 Recession Occupancy Nominal ADR Real ADR Nominal RevPAR Real RevPAR Upper Upscale Midscale w/o F&B Upper Upscale Luxury Economy Upper Upscale
93 Top 25 Market & Total US Recovery First to Recover 1991 Recession Occupancy Nominal ADR Nominal RevPAR Top 25 Markets Total US Top 25 Markets First to Recover 2001 Recession Occupancy Nominal ADR Nominal RevPAR Top 25 Markets Total US Top 25 Markets
94 Demand Segment Cycles and Recoveries
95 Demand Segments Cycle and Recoveries Order of decline in demand Business/Commercial Group/Convention SMERF Leisure Percentage decline of demand Group/Convention Business/Commercial SMERF Leisure Duration to Recovery (first to last) Leisure SMERF Business/commercial i Group/ Convention
96 Perverse Math Average Daily Rate $ percentdecline $ percent increase $150
97 Section Five: Two RevPAR Recovery Analyses
98 1. Long term RevPAR +3.1 percent 2. U.S. RevPAR peaked 2007 $ Assumed RevPAR trough 2010 $53.40 If RevPAR were to increase by 3.1 percent, recovery to 2007 levels would be 2017 (worst case) 4. U.S. RevPAR recovery has averaged 7.57 percent for 4 years post trough (since 1968) If RevPAR were to increase by 7.57 percent for four years, 3.1 percentthereafter thereafter, recovery to 2007 levels would be 2013 (best case)
99 Section 5 RevPAR Forecasts
100 U.S. Lodging grevpar Forecasts Source Smith Travel Research (3.2) 4.2 PKF Research (1.3) 5.9 PricewaterhouseCoopers (1.5) *Forecasts as of February 13, 2010 Source: Individual organizations
101 Section 7 Structural Changes
102 Structural Changes Demand
103 1987 value = Demand Elasticity and Correlation to Real GDP US Real GDP Lodging Demand (Room Nights Sold) '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 Sources: Sources: Lodging Lodging demand demand PricewaterhouseCoopers PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP LLP based based on on Smith Smith Travel Travel Research Research data; data; Real Real GDP- GDP- U.S. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Air travel demand - Air Transport Association. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Air travel demand - Air Transport Association.
104 Structural Changes Profits
105 Long Term Occupancy Levels and Profits Income Before Income Taxes, Billions of Dollars Occupancy Percentage $30 68% $25 66% $20 64% 62% $15 60% $10 58% $5 56% $0 54% 52% ($5) Aggregate Profits Occupancy 50% ($10) % Sources: Smith Travel Research Note: STR change in method in 2002 Sources: Smith Travel Research, 2009 NYU Tisch Center Estimate
106 U.S. Lodging Industry Net Income as a Rti Ratio to Revenue Sources: Smith Travel Research, 2009 NYU Tisch Center Estimate
107 Section 7 Comments & Conclusions
108 1. Lodging Industry forecasts are more challenging now than ever before record revisions 2. Comparable recessions and long term trends indicate this recovery will be longer and less robust tthan average 3. TheU U.S. LodgingIndustryspendsmore spends time in declines than in recoveries 4. During declines, occupancy usually precedes average daily rate During recoveries, occupancy usually precedes average daily rate 5. Industry RevPAR is unlikely to recover to 2007 levels until 2013 or later
109 6. Luxury and Upper Upscale demand has declined during all recessions, Economy during all but one recession Upscale and Midscale without Food and Beverage demanddeclined declined only duringthecurrent recession Midscale with Food and Beverage has experienced a long term trend of demanddeclinedecline 7. The Top 25 Markets are much more volatile than the U.S. with earlier and greater declines, but frequently with earlier and stronger recoveries 8. Luxury may experience a favorable percentage increase, but is likely to be among the last to recover 9. Upscale and Midscale without Food and Beverage will likely emerge as stronger performers based on absolute performance levels l
110 10. Leisure demand will remain favorable but is based on discounting especially ill for Luxury 11. Group/convention demand is likely to recover after business/commercial 12. It is probable that there will be a structural resetting of lodging demand less demand relative to GDP 13. It is probable bbl that t the industry will emerge with structural resetting of profitability higher profit levels relative to occupancy and RevPAR
111 NYU Tisch Center Programs Undergraduate Degrees: B.S. in Hotel and Tourism Management B.S. in Sports Management Graduate Degrees and Graduate Certificates: M.S. Hospitality Industry Studies M.S. Sports Business M.S. Tourism and Travel Management Continuing Education and Professional Certificates: FoodandBeverage Operations Hotel Operations Meeting, Conference, and Event Management For additional information:
112 32nd Annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference June 6-8, 2010 Hosted by the New York University Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism, and Sports Management Location: o The New York Marriott Marquis, New York City For additional information:
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