The Economic Downturn Lessons on the Correlation between Economic Growth and Energy
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1 The Economic Downturn Lessons on the Correlation between Economic Growth and Energy Demand presented to Indiana State Bar Association Utility Law Spring Seminar April 9, 2010 presented by Doug Gotham State Utility Forecasting Group
2 It s the economy, stupid Attributed to James Carville during the 1992 presidential election campaign A li bl t I di t Applicable to Indiana s current energy situation
3 Data Sources & Availability Electricity Sales Energy Information Administration (Department of Energy) Gross Domestic Product Bureau of Economic Analysis (Department of Commerce) Little data available for 2009
4 Indiana - an Industrial State In 2008, Indiana accounted for 2.9% of the nation s retail electricity sales 11 th most in the U.S. But Indiana accounted for 4.8% of the nation s industrial sector retail electricity sales 4 th most in the U.S.
5 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ENERGY CENTER 2008 Industrial Demand as Percentage of Total NV IA WV IN KY WY DC FL MD NY NJ RI CT MA VA AZ NH CA MO SD AK NC GA WA DE OR CO US-TOTAL ME KS VT OK ND TX MI NM IL TN PA UT NE MS LA MN WI SC HI OH AR MT ID AL
6 ENERGY CENTER 2008 Industrial Electricity it Sales (million MWh) DC RI AK VT NH SD DE ME ND HI CT MD MT NM UT ID MA WY NE NJ KS AZ OR NV CO NY WV OK MS AR MO VA FL IA WA MN WI LA NC SC MI GA TN AL IL KY PA IN CA OH TX
7 Industrial Model Sensitivities 10 Percent Increase In Causes This Percent Change in Electric Use Real Manufacturing Product 10.0 Electric Rates -4.8 Natural Gas Price 1.4 Oil Prices 0.9 Coal Prices Source: SUFG 2009 Forecast
8 ENERGY CENTER 2008 Residential Electricity it Sales (million MWh) DC AK VT WY RI HI ND ME NH SD DE MT NM ID UT NE WV NV CT KS IA AR CO MS MA OR OK WI MN MD KY LA NJ SC AL AZ IN MI MO WA TN VA IL NY OH PA GA NC CA FL TX
9 Residential Model Sensitivities 10 Percent Increase In Causes This Percent Change in Electric Use Number of Customers 11.1 Electric Rates -2.4 Natural Gas Price 1.0 Distillate Oil Prices 0.0 Appliance Price -1.8 Household Income 2.0 Source: SUFG 2009 Forecast
10 ENERGY CENTER 2008 Commercial Electricity it Sales (million MWh) VT AK HI RI ME SD DE WY ND NH MT ID WV NM DC NV NE UT AR IA MS CT KS OR OK KY CO SC AL MN LA WI IN MA TN WA MD AZ MO MI NJ NC GA VA OH PA IL NY FL TX CA
11 Commercial Model Sensitivities 10 Percent Increase In Causes This Percent Change in Electric Use Electric Rates -2.5 Nt Natural lgas Pi Price Distillate Oil Prices 0.0 Coal Prices 0.0 Electric Energy-weighted Floor Space Source: SUFG 2009 Forecast 12.0
12 ENERGY CENTER 2008 Total Electricity it Sales (million MWh) VT AK RI HI SD NH ME DE DC ND MT WY NM ID UT NE CT WV NV KS IA AR MS OR CO MA OK MD MN WI AZ LA NJ SC MO WA AL KY TN MI IN VA NC GA NY IL PA OH FL CA TX
13 Changes in Indiana Electricity it Sales from 2007 to 2008 Residential sector -1.9% 19% Commercial sector -0.8% Industrial sector -3.2% Total -2.2%
14 Was it the Economy? Indiana Gross Domestic Product dropped by 0.6% from 2007 to 2008 But the summer of 2008 was considerably cooler than 2007, which affected electricity demand Cooling degree days in Indianapolis Cooling degree days in Indianapolis dropped by 30% from 2007
15 Indiana Real Gross Domestic Product and Total Electricity Sales Real GDP Sales
16 2009 Effects were More Pronounced Economic impact largely confined to last quarter of 2008 Economic impact was felt across all 4 quarters of 2009 The summer of 2009 was even milder cooling degree days were down another 11% from 2008
17 US U.S. Gross Domestic Product (trillions of 2005 dollars) q1 2007q2 2007q3 2007q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4
18 Annual Change in U.S. Electricity c Sales Industrial % % Residential % % Commercial % % Total % %
19 US U.S. Retail ilindustrial ti Electricity c Sales (TWh) January February March April May June July August September October November December
20 US U.S. Retail ilresidential Electricity c Sales (TWh) January February March April May June July August September October November December
21 US U.S. Retail ilcommercial Electricity c Sales (TWh) January February March April May June July August September October November December
22 US U.S. Retail iltotal Electricity c Sales (TWh) January February March April May June July August September October November December
23 EIA April Short-Term Outlook U.S. residential electricity sales increased by an estimated 7.6% in the 1 st quarter of 2010 relative to the 1 st quarter of 2009 colder weather caused much of the increase
24 EIA April Short-Term Outlook EIA projects U.S. total electricity consumption to increase by 2.9% in 2010 and again by 1.2% in 2011 note: sales and consumption are not note: sales and consumption are not interchangeable, but they do tend to follow each other closely
25 Further Information State Utility Forecasting Group purdue edu/dp/energy/sufg/ Energy Information Administration / Bureau of Economic Analysis
JOB LOSSES BY STATE, State Industry US total AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT Agriculture, forestry, fisheries -15, ,
State US total AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT -15,597-35 -272-248 -232-3,163-132 -46-3,858-68 4-19 -291-303 -116-11 -3,318-9 -55-32 -73-314 -66-35 -554,750-194 -14,113-7,789-4,781-55,255-4,453-6,836-9,326-13 -190-282
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1 CT CTSW 169 2 5 1 167 179 17 * 9.50% * 177 35 80.23% * *not eligible *not eligible 1 CT Total 169 2 5 1 167 179 17 9 9.50% 8 177 35 80.23% 7 24 9 1 MA MASW 158 3 3 1 159 169 22 * 13.02% * 174 44 74.71%
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1 CT CTSW 160 3 3 1 161 166 9 * 5.42% * 180 35 80.56% * *not eligible *not eligible 1 CT Total 160 3 3 1 161 166 9 6 5.42% 7 180 35 80.56% 7 20 7 1 MA MASW 145 1 0-1 145 159 3 * 1.89% * 164 40 75.61% *
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1 CT CTSW 162 3 6 1 160 166 6 * 3.61% * 180 37 79.44% * *not eligible *not eligible 1 CT Total 162 3 6 1 160 166 6 8 3.61% 8 180 37 79.44% 7 23 9 1 MA MASW 147 0 3 1 145 159 2 * 1.26% * 169 42 75.15% *
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