EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31, 2007 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2006 (ADVANCE)

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1 NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 31, 2007 Virginia H. Mannering: (202) BEA Recorded message: (202) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FOURTH QUARTER 2006 (ADVANCE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimates are based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4). The fourthquarter preliminary estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on February 28, The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, state and local government spending, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The acceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and accelerations in PCE for nondurable goods, in exports, in federal government spending, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by downturns in private inventory investment and in equipment and software and a deceleration in nonresidential structures. Final sales of computers contributed 0.25 percentage point to the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.07 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.17 percentage points from the fourth-quarter growth in real GDP after contributing 0.76 percentage point to the third-quarter growth. NOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. Real estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Prices indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA s Web site at - more -

2 - 2 - The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 2.2 percent in the third. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 6.0 percent, compared with an increase of 6.4 percent. Nondurable goods increased 6.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Services expenditures increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 10.0 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 15.7 percent. Equipment and software decreased 1.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 7.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 19.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 18.7 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 10.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 6.8 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services decreased 3.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.6 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third. National defense increased 11.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.2 percent. Nondefense decreased 9.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 3.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent. The real change in private inventories subtracted 0.71 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.06 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $35.3 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $55.4 billion in the third quarter and $53.7 billion in the second. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the third. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $131.8 billion (4.9 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $157.2 billion (5.9 percent) in the third. Personal current taxes increased $24.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $5.2 billion in the third. Disposable personal income increased $107.5 billion (4.6 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $152.1 billion (6.6 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased 5.4 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. - more -

3 - 3 - Personal outlays increased $91.8 billion (3.8 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $133.0 billion (5.7 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was a negative $96.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with a negative $111.7 billion in the third. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was a negative 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a negative 1.2 percent in the third. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. For more information, see the FAQs on Personal Saving on BEA s Web site. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board s flow of funds accounts, go to Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 5.0 percent, or $164.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $13,487.2 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $125.3 billion GDP Real GDP increased 3.4 percent in 2006 (that is, from the 2005 annual level to the 2006 annual level), compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in 2006 were personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and equipment and software. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in exports, in nonresidential structures, and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent in 2006, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in Current-dollar GDP increased 6.4 percent, or $798.1 billion, in Current-dollar GDP increased 6.3 percent, or $743.3 billion, in During 2006 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2006), real GDP increased 3.4 percent. Real GDP increased 3.1 percent during The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent during 2006, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent during more -

4 - 4 - Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed Key Source Data and Assumptions file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimates of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, GDP and the Economy. * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release February 28, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter 2006 (Preliminary) - more -

5 - 5 - Comparisons of Revisions to GDP Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: Advance estimates, based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, preliminary and final estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The latest estimates reflect the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions. Annual revisions, which cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried out each summer and incorporate more comprehensive data including annual surveys. Comprehensive (or benchmark) revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S. economy. The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar and real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the preliminary estimate (one month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the advance estimate to the final estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision (with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.4 percentage point, which is larger than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the preliminary or to the final estimates. The larger average revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements such as the introduction of chain indexes and the capitalization of software. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the direction of change of real GDP 98 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether it is accelerating or decelerating 74 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend growth more than three-fifths of the time. Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons [Annual rates] Vintages Compared Average Average without regard to sign Standard deviation of revision without regard to sign Current-dollar GDP Advance to preliminary Advance to final Preliminary to final Advance to latest Real GDP Advance to preliminary Advance to final Preliminary to final Advance to latest NOTE.--These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through more -

6 Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2003 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product (GNP) Disposable personal income Current-dollar measures: GDP Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers GNP Disposable personal income See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

7 Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2003 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Percent change at annual rate: Gross domestic product Percentage points at annual rates: Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Nondurable goods Food Clothing and shoes Gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods Other Services Housing Household operation Electricity and gas Other household operation Transportation Medical care Recreation Other Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Information processing equipment and software Computers and peripheral equipment Software Other Industrial equipment Transportation equipment Other equipment Residential Change in private inventories Farm Nonfarm Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal National defense Consumption expenditures Gross investment Nondefense Consumption expenditures Gross investment State and local Consumption expenditures Gross investment Goods Services Structures Motor vehicle output Final sales of computers See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

8 Table 3. Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Level and Change From Preceding Period 2006 Billions of current dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Billions of chained (2000) dollars Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Change from preceding period IV I II III IV IV I II III IV III IV Gross domestic product... 13, , , , , , , , , , , , Personal consumption expenditures... 9, , , , , , , , , , , , Durable goods... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and household equipment Other Nondurable goods... 2, , , , , , , , , , , , Food... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Clothing and shoes Gasoline, fuel oil, and other energy goods Other Services... 5, , , , , , , , , , , , Housing... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Household operation Electricity and gas Other household operation Transportation Medical care... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Recreation Other... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Gross private domestic investment... 2, , , , , , , , , , , , Fixed investment... 2, , , , , , , , , , , , Nonresidential... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Structures Equipment and software , , , , , , Information processing equipment and software Computers and peripheral equipment Software Other Industrial equipment Transportation equipment Other equipment Residential Change in private inventories Farm Nonfarm Net exports of goods and services Exports... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Goods... 1, , , , Services Imports... 2, , , , , , , , , , , , Goods... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment... 2, , , , , , , , , , , , Federal National defense Consumption expenditures Gross investment Nondefense Consumption expenditures Gross investment State and local... 1, , , , , , , , , , , , Consumption expenditures... 1, , , , , , , , , , Gross investment Residual Final sales of domestic product... 13, , , , , , , , , , , , Gross domestic purchases... 14, , , , , , , , , , , , Final sales to domestic purchasers... 13, , , , , , , , , , , , Gross domestic product... 13, , , , , , , , , , , , Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world Less: Income payments to the rest of the world Equals: Gross national product , , , , , , , , Net domestic product... 11, , , , , , , , , , , , NOTE. Users are cautioned that particularly for components that exhibit rapid change in prices relative to other prices in the economy, the chained-dollar estimates should not be used to measure the component s relative importance or its contribution to the growth rate of more aggregate series. For accurate estimates of the contributions to percent changes in real gross domestic product, use table 2. See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

9 Table 4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2003 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product (GNP) Implicit price deflators: GDP Gross domestic purchases GNP See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

10 Table 5. Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes [Index numbers, 2000=100] Seasonally adjusted IV I II III IV Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables. Table 6. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product [Index numbers, 2000=100] Seasonally adjusted IV I II III IV Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal State and local PCE excluding food and energy Market-based PCE Market-based PCE excluding food and energy Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product Implicit price deflators: Gross domestic product Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. Percentage changes for these series are included in the addenda to table 8 and in appendix table A. See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

11 Table 7. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Preceding Year Gross domestic product (GDP) Personal consumption expenditures Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product Real disposable personal income Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy GDP GDP excluding food and energy Personal consumption expenditures Table 8. Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago 2003 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment and software Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Final sales of domestic product Gross domestic purchases Final sales to domestic purchasers Gross national product Real disposable personal income Price indexes: Gross domestic purchases Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy GDP GDP excluding food and energy PCE PCE excluding food and energy Market-based PCE Market-based PCE excluding food and energy This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions.

12 Table 9. Relation of Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, and National Income [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates IV I II III IV Gross domestic product... 11, , , , , , , ,487.2 Plus: Income receipts from the rest of the world Less: Income payments to the rest of the world Equals: Gross national product... 11, , , , , , Less: Consumption of fixed capital... 1, , , , , , , ,598.6 Less: Statistical discrepancy Equals: National income... 10, , , , , , Compensation of employees... 6, , , , , , , ,628.4 Wage and salary accruals... 5, , , , , , , ,145.3 Supplements to wages and salaries... 1, , , , , , , ,483.1 Proprietors income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments , , , , ,024.0 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments... 1, , , , , , Net interest and miscellaneous payments Taxes on production and imports less subsidies Business current transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises Addendum: Gross domestic income... 11, , , , , , Table 10. Personal Income and Its Disposition [Billions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates IV I II III IV Personal income , , , , , , , ,096.3 Compensation of employees, received... 6, , , , , , , ,628.4 Wage and salary disbursements... 5, , , , , , , ,145.3 Supplements to wages and salaries... 1, , , , , , , ,483.1 Proprietors income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments , , , , ,024.0 Farm Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Personal income receipts on assets... 1, , , , , , , ,696.9 Personal interest income , , , ,028.2 Personal dividend income Personal current transfer receipts... 1, , , , , , , ,629.4 Less: Contributions for government social insurance Less: Personal current taxes... 1, , , , , , , ,390.5 Equals: Disposable personal income... 8, , , , , , , ,705.8 Less: Personal outlays... 8, , , , , , , ,801.8 Equals: Personal saving Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income Addendum: Disposable personal income, billions of chained (2000) dollars , , , , , , , , Personal income is also equal to national income less corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, taxes on production and imports less subsidies, contributions for government social insurance, net interest and miscellaneous payments, business current transfer payments, current surplus of government enterprises, and wage accruals less disbursements, plus personal income receipts on assets, and personal current transfer receipts. 2. Equals disposable personal income deflated by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures.

13 Appendix Table A. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Aggregates and Price Indexes: Percent Change From Preceding Period Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2003 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV Gross domestic product (GDP) and related aggregates: GDP Goods Services Structures Motor vehicle output GDP excluding motor vehicle output Final sales of computers GDP excluding final sales of computers Farm gross value added Nonfarm business gross value added Price indexes: GDP GDP excluding food and energy GDP excluding final sales of computers Gross domestic purchases Gross domestic purchases excluding food and energy Gross domestic purchases excluding final sales of computers to domestic purchasers Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) PCE excluding food and energy Market-based PCE Market-based PCE excluding food and energy Some components of final sales of computers include computer parts. 2. Farm output less intermediate goods and services purchased. 3. Consists of GDP less gross value added of farm, of households and institutions, and of general government. 4. This index is a supplemental measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. See Explanatory Note at the end of the tables.

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