Who are the. Metalforming? The leading trade association for the metalforming industry.

Transcription

1 Confederation of British Metalforming John Houseman Director General

2 Who are the Confederation of British Metalforming? The leading trade association for the metalforming industry.

3 National Metalforming Centre

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6 CBM Membership Forging Fasteners 20 Sheet metal 72 Associates Overseas

7 Costs of the Recession

8 Begbies Traynor Says the Worst for Insolvencies is Yet to Come as 134,000 UK Companies Show Material Signs of Financial Distress in Q th Oct 2009

9 Financial costs Human costs National costs International costs

10 Administrations 1:120 Purdie Ellcock Redfern Stevens Barton Cold Form Metal Pressings Gp George Carter pressings Sonas Wagon Footprint Tools Welconstruct Grd Engineering T W Stampings Rojac

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12 Unemployment

13 Europe: Unemployment Rates Unemployment rising across Europe as the global recession continues Economic recovery begins in 2010, but job losses continue Over the forecast horizon, higher than trend unemployment expected Source: Feri Gmbh

14 People in work m Down 600, on last year Greatest falls in finance, business services and construction ti Redundancies da es 246,000 in three months to July 7.99m inactive people of working age!!!!

15 Scrappage Scheme 227,000 new cars already (end Aug) Extra 100,000 cars extended Car production down 41.2% YoY Comm Vehicles down 61.6% Pre-empting 2010 could stave future sales Car Dealerships could halve

16 M j IIncentive ti P Major Programs Schemes Introduction Expiration Impact Bonus/Malus Scrappage January 2008 January 2009 Ongoing; reduced through 2010/ ,000 Scrappage CO2 Tax January 2009 July 2009 September 2009 Ongoing + 1,000,000 Scrappage, Scrappage including Eco Tax February 2009 December ,000 Spain Plan Vive Plan 2000 December 2008 June 2009 July 2010 June ,000 United Kingdom Scrappage May 2009 March , Loan Subsidy Scrappage January 2009 J 2010? January Ongoing D b 2010? December +130,000 in 2010 France Germany Italy Russia Source: CSM International

17 Production Forecast 2009 SAAR (Mill lions) 30 30% Month SAAR % Chg 20% 25 10% Jan Feb Mar % Apr % 15 May % Jun % Jul Aug % 5 Sep Y/Y % % Oct % Nov Ja an Fe eb Ma ar Ap pr Ma ay Ju un J ul Au ug Se ep O ct No ov De ec % Y/ /Y Change Dec Source: CSM International

18 European Capacity Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Plants Capacity Central Europe Eastern Europe France Germany Level Italy Spain United Kingdom Western Europe Total Europe Source; CSM International Note: Capacity in millions

19 JLR planned to source more than one-third of its vehicle parts from low-cost countries including India, compared with about one-fifth now. David Smith, chief executive,

20 Blue Skies??

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23 's / t Steel prices CRC 's per tonne Low Avg High Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

24 1.6m cars 3 m engines

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26 300 cars a day

27 Share of Economic Output Manufacturing 14% Educ & Health 13% Transport & Comm 8% Financial Services 32% Construction 6% Farming & Mining 6% Public Admin 5% Retail & Whole 16%

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29 Productivity Growth ( )

30 Summary Shock of Oct 2008 Govm t support : Scrappage, tax defer Productivity improvements of the past Steel & energy prices Beneficial exchange rates for exporters Success areas food/aerospace/oil and gas/power Car sales rose 11.4% 368,000 new cars Sept New models coming on stream for 2010 John Powell s birthday

31 Everyone s suffering!!!

32 Road to Recovery