Estimating Economic Impacts of Energy Deployment National Association of State Energy Officials Regional Meeting David Keyser June 5, 2013

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1 Estimating Ecnmic Impacts f Energy Deplyment Natinal Assciatin f State Energy Officials Reginal Meeting David Keyser June 5, 2013 NREL is a natinal labratry f the U.S. Department f Energy, Office f Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, perated by the Alliance fr Sustainable Energy, LLC.

2 Disclaimer DISCLAIMER AGREEMENT These infrmatin ( Data ) are prvided by the Natinal Renewable Energy Labratry ( NREL ), which is perated by the Alliance fr Sustainable Energy LLC ( Alliance ) fr the U.S. Department f Energy (the DOE ). It is recgnized that disclsure f these Data is prvided under the fllwing cnditins and warnings: (1) these Data have been prepared fr reference purpses nly; (2) these Data cnsist f frecasts, estimates r assumptins made n a best effrts basis, based upn present expectatins; and (3) these Data were prepared with existing infrmatin and are subject t change withut ntice. The names DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE shall nt be used in any representatin, advertising, publicity r ther manner whatsever t endrse r prmte any entity that adpts r uses these Data. DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE shall nt prvide any supprt, cnsulting, training r assistance f any kind with regard t the use f these Data r any updates, revisins r new versins f these Data. YOU AGREE TO INDEMNIFY DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE, AND ITS AFFILIATES, OFFICERS, AGENTS, AND EMPLOYEES AGAINST ANY CLAIM OR DEMAND, INCLUDING REASONABLE ATTORNEYS' FEES, RELATED TO YOUR USE, RELIANCE, OR ADOPTION OF THESE DATA FOR ANY PURPOSE WHATSOEVER. THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED BY DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMED. IN NO EVENT SHALL DOE/NREL/ALLIANCE BE LIABLE FOR ANY SPECIAL, INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY DAMAGES WHATSOEVER, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CLAIMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DATA OR PROFITS, WHICH MAY RESULT FROM AN ACTION IN CONTRACT, NEGLIGENCE OR OTHER TORTIOUS CLAIM THAT ARISES OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OR PERFORMANCE OF THESE DATA. 2

3 Why D Impact Mdeling? Evaluate ptential scenaris current r future Infrm residents, stakehlders, decisin makers Assist businesses Identify ptential custmers Evaluate ecnmic develpment effrts Assist gvernment Representing public interest Planning and evaluating Cmmunity develpment. Pht Credit: NREL PIX #

4 Jbs and Ecnmic Develpment Impacts (JEDI) Freely available input utput tl t estimate emplyment and ecnmic impacts that result frm an investment in new pwer generatin r fuel prductin JEDI default inputs are frm develpers and industry experts, based n existing prjects User input can be minimal with defaults r be very detailed fr mre precise results. Pht Credit: David Hicks, NREL PIX #

5 JEDI Technlgies Current JEDI mdels Slar phtvltaic (including web and scenari versins) Cncentrating slar pwer (trugh) Utility scale land based wind Offshre wind Natural gas (cmbined cycle) Cal (pulverized cal) Marine and hydrkinetic Dry mill crn ethanl Ligncellulsic ethanl Bipwer Gethermal JEDI mdels under develpment Small wind Hydrpwer (cnventinal) Transmissin Pht Credit: HC Srensen, Middelgrunden Wind Turbine Cperative / NREL PIX #

6 JEDI Mdel Apprach Build prject develpment and peratin scenaris Scenaris cntain prject expenditures and ther characteristics Can be based n default data r a mdel user can supply detailed prject infrmatin Feed prject scenari in t an input utput mdel t estimate impacts Currently use the IMPLAN mdel 6

7 JEDI Data and Mdel Develpment Prefer detailed expenditure data frm real prjects Sme technlgies (i.e., marine hydrkinetic, ffshre wind) must rely n theretical prjects expenditure data based n csts t surce prject inputs Data cllectin culd be internal, by cnsultants, ther natinal labs Peer review Peridic updates 7

8 JEDI Results Jbs (FTEs) Number f peple wrking the equivalent f 40 hr. weeks, 52 weeks/yr. Earnings Incme frm wrk Includes wages, salaries, emplyer prvided supplements (retirement, health) Grss utput Measure f ttal ecnmic activity Revenue plus expenditures n inputs Nt the same as GDP 8

9 Prject Develpment & Onsite Labr Impacts Sample jb types Truck driving Crane peratin, histing, rigging Earth mving Puring cement Management, supprt Siting. 9 Pht frm Crss Island Farms, NREL/PIX Pht frm Stephanie Lively, Bise State University, NREL/PIX Pht frm istck Pht frm Nrthern Pwer Systems, NREL/PIX Pht by David Parsns, NREL/PIX 05572

10 Lcal Revenues, Turbine, Mdule, & Supply Chain Impacts NREL/PIX Pht frm istck/ Pht frm Clarence Cuncil, NREL/PIX Steel mill jbs, parts, services Equipment manufacturing & sales Blade & twer manufacturers Prperty taxes, financing, banking, accunting. Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/

11 Induced Impacts Mney spent in the lcal area n gds and services frm increased revenue: sandwich shps, child care, grcery stres, clthing, ther retail, public transit, new cars, restaurants, medical services Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/ Pht frm istck/

12 Interpreting Results and Mdel Limitatins JEDI results are grss, nt net JEDI des nt factr in far reaching impacts frm develpment such as changes in utility rates, greenhuse gas emissins, prperty values r public health Input utput mdels cannt estimate impacts frm supply side changes such as technlgical imprvements, price changes, r changes in taxes/subsidies JEDI desn t evaluate a prject s feasibility r prfitability NREL is nt respnsible fr hw the mdel is used, applied r results interpreted 12

13 Thank Yu