DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Transcription

1 Boundary Planning DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FEBRUARY 7, 2019 Vision: Metro Nashville Public s will be the fastest-improving urban school system in America, ensuring that every student becomes a life-long learner prepared for success in college, career and life. Mission: We deliver a great public education to every student, every day.

2 Table of Contents 19 Enrollment Review Projection Summary... 2 District Level Projections... 3 Northwest Quadrant Projections Northeast Quadrant Projections Southwest Quadrant Projections Southeast Quadrant Projections Charter Projections Appendix

3 19 Enrollment Review _ District (includes MNPS, Charter and ASD) enrollment for 19 declined by.13% or 112 students, from 85,399 to 85,287, PS 12. o Elementary school enrollment declined by 2.1%. o Middle enrollment grew by 2.1%. o High school enrollment was flat at.07%. However, enrollment did decline in MNPS high schools by approximately 834 students. o MNPS s enrollment declined by 1,627 students and charter authorized schools increased by 1,515 students. o choice continues to be popular and approximately 32,000 students, 38% of the students in the district, are now enrolled in an out of zone school. o The actual enrollment for 19 came in at 99.41% of projection, within the target of 1%. Enrollment and Growth Trends o o o o o The number of live births has started to increase and the capture rate had a slight increase from. The capture rate is the number of Kindergarten students that enrolled as compared to the number of children born in the area five years prior to a particular school year. See appendix page 1 for a chart showing live birth and capture rates. Kindergarten enrollment was up for the first time since 2012 and we expect kindergarten enrollment to be up again in 2019 based on higher live births and capture rates. The smaller kindergarten classes that began in will begin to impact middle school enrollment in 2019 where we anticipate a decline of 600 students in the 5 th grade. Affordability: The median price of homes currently listed in Nashville is $319,900 and the median rent price is $1,650. Historically, District growth has outpaced the growth of Nashville\Davidson County but enrollment has been on the decline the past two years. See appendix pages 2 and 3 for maps showing enrollment growth\decline. Year Enrollment MNPS Enrollment Charter and ASD Enrollment District Davidson County Population ,819 3,352 81, , , % 4, % 82, % 658, % , % 5, % 84, % 668, % , % 8, % 85, % 678, % , % 10, % 86, % 684, % , % 12, % 85, % 692, % , % 13, % 85, % 700, % Source: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville - September 1

4 Projection Summary There are several drivers that will influence district level projections for : o Kindergarten enrollment is projected to increase. o Middle school enrollment will decline due to a small 4 th grade class rolling forward. o Smaller enrollment will lead to lower cohorts of students rolling forward to the next grade level or the next tier. The district level projected growth rate is.17% with a decline of 145 students o The 1.42% enrollment decrease for 18 was a significant change from the previous trend of district level enrollment growth. While it appears that 18 was an anomaly district enrollment did decline again this year and is projected to continue to decline for the next several years as this bubble of smaller elementary grades works its way through the middle and high school tiers. See appendix page 4 for a 10 year enrollment forecast. o No projected change in Pre and Pre Kindergarten enrollment o Projected increase of 56 elementary students o Projected decrease of 363 middle school students Enrollment in 5 th grade will be down significantly, but there is still some growth in the upper grades as larger cohorts rise in grade levels. o Projected decrease of 137 high school students Major trends affecting MNPS level projections o While the district level projections show a small enrollment decrease, MNPS school level projections will decline by 1,052 students. o The decrease is due to a combination of growth in charter school enrollment and smaller cohorts of students rolling forward. o Significant changes for charter schools include KIPP opening a new middle school and several charter schools continue to add additional grade levels. The following is a list of data points that were considered in setting the school level projections: o Birth and Capture Rates in Davidson County o Historical Enrollment o Current Enrollment o Cohort Survival o Choice Demand and Charter Enrollment o Openings\Closings o Zone Changes Change Request for Projections Principals are encouraged to review the school level projections. However, we plan to make very few changes to the school projections and will need documentation prior to considering a change. Any change request to increase school projections that without evidence being provided to support the request will not be considered. An example would be a new development that is under construction (not just planned) that is designed to be family friendly or more students currently present than shown on the projection report. Please keep in mind that projections typically run higher than actual enrollment and that adding students at one school likely means reducing enrollment at another school. 2

5 Projection October Enrollment October Enrollment October Enrollment October Enrollment October Enrollment October 2019 Projection Pre- Total Pre-K Total 2,301 2,386 2,760 2,602 2,681 2,693 K Total 7,209 7,219 7,052 6,749 6,967 7,157 1st Total 7,748 7,080 7,113 6,909 6,703 6,842 2nd Total 7,480 7,648 6,933 6,894 6,752 6,533 3rd Total 7,055 7,329 7,350 6,702 6,652 6,481 4th Total 6,771 6,982 7,180 7,089 6,560 6,460 Total (K-4) W/O Spec Ed 36,263 36,258 35,628 34,343 33,634 33, % 0.0% -1.7% -3.6% -2.1% -2.5% 5th Total 6,134 6,565 6,661 6,777 6,710 6,180 6th Total 5,877 6,045 6,412 6,442 6,636 6,507 7th Total 5,627 5,822 5,992 6,180 6,264 6,469 8th Total 5,649 5,585 5,700 5,821 6,130 6,118 Total (5-8) W/O Spec Ed 23,287 24,017 24,765 25,220 25,740 25, % 3.1% 3.1% 1.8% 2.1% 0.2% 9th Total 7,030 6,943 6,702 5,678 5,856 6,171 10th Total 5,549 5,915 5,807 5,773 5,558 5,597 11th Total 4,528 4,616 5,131 5,682 5,565 5,407 12th Total 4,063 4,198 4,364 4,866 5,005 5,083 Total (9-12) W/O Spec Ed 21,170 21,672 22,004 21,999 21,984 22, % 2.4% 1.5% -0.02% -0.07% 1.2% Total PreS & PreK 2,522 2,593 2,974 2,803 2,957 2,940 Total K-12 80,720 81,947 82,397 81,562 81,358 81,005 Total Special Ed 1,111 1,257 1,262 1, Grand Total 84,353 85,797 86,633 85,399 85,287 84, % 1.71% 0.97% -1.42% % -0.51% MNPS Tier Proj 2019 PreSch & PreK 2,522 2,593 2,974 2,803 2,957 2,940 K 4 34,819 33,919 32,784 31,208 30,108 29, ,506 19,302 19,127 18,343 18,558 18, ,807 20,774 20,622 19,949 19,115 18,747 Total K 12 75,132 73,995 72,533 69,500 67,781 66,521 Full Time Exec. Ed. 1,111 1,257 1,262 1, Grand Total 78,765 77,845 76,769 73,337 71,710 70,368 Percent Growth -0.17% -1.17% -1.38% -4.47% -2.22% -2.48% Charter Tier Proj 2019 K 4 1,444 2,339 2,844 3,096 3,426 3, ,781 4,715 5,638 6,111 6,380 6, ,382 2,050 2,869 3,511 Total K 12 5,588 7,952 9,864 11,257 12,675 13,411 ASD Tier Proj 2019 K Total K , /6/2019

6 NORTHWEST QUADRANT Hunters Lane Cluster Amqui Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Neely's Bend Elem PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Bellshire Design Center Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

7 Stratton PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Gateway PreK 2 1 K Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Grand Total Goodlettsville Elementary PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Old Center PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

8 Madison MP TOTAL Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Goodlettsville MP TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hunters Lane TOTAL Total 1,674 1,603 1,518 1,416 1,327 1,285 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Grand Total 1,696 1,619 1,531 1,425 1,336 1,288 Pearl-Cohn Cluster Cockrill Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

9 Park Avenue EOS Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Buena Vista EOS PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Robert Churchwell PreK K Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Grand Total McKissack MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

10 John Early MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Pearl-Cohn TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Carter-Lawrence Magnet PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 2 1 Grand Total Hull-Jackson Montessori Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 Grand Total /6/2019

11 Jones Paideia K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Head TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Meigs TOTAL Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 Grand Total Rose Park TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 1 Grand Total Hume-Fogg TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

12 M.L. King Jr TOTAL Total 1,224 1,211 1,235 1, Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,224 1,211 1,235 1,222 1,269 1,290 Whites Creek Cluster Cumberland PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Joelton Elem. PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Robert E. Lillard PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

13 Alex Green PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Joelton MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Whites Creek TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Isaiah T. Creswell TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

14 Haynes TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total NSA TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 Grand Total /6/2019

15 NORTHEAST QUADRANT Maplewood Cluster Shwab Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Tom Joy PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Ida B. Wells Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

16 Chadwell PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hattie Cotton PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Jere Baxter TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Gra-Mar TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

17 Maplewood TOTAL Total 980 1, Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,005 1, McGavock Cluster Andrew Jackson PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total DuPont Elementary PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Dodson Pre-Sch 4 PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

18 Tulip Grove Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hermitage PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hickman PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Ruby Major PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

19 McGavock Elementary PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Napier EOS Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Pennington PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total DuPont-Hadley TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

20 DuPont-Tyler TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Donelson MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Two Rivers TOTAL Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total McGavock HS TOTAL Total 2,302 2,334 2,367 2,408 2,264 2,215 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 2,321 2,368 2,396 2,425 2,298 2, /6/2019

21 Stanford Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Stratford Cluster Dan Mills PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Inglewood PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 3 1 Grand Total Rosebank PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 1 Grand Total /6/2019

22 Warner EOS Pre-Sch 1 PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Litton TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Stratford STEM TOTAL Total 1,048 1,115 1,112 1, Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,056 1,126 1,125 1,111 1, /6/2019

23 East Nashville MP TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total East Nashville HS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 2 9 Grand Total Lockeland Design Center K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 1 Grand Total /6/2019

24 SOUTHWEST QUADRANT Hillsboro Cluster Julia Green PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Percy Priest PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 Grand Total Waverly-Belmont Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

25 Eakin Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Sylvan Park Paideia Pre-Sch 9 1 PreK 1 1 K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total J.T. Moore TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total West End TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

26 Hillsboro TOTAL Total 1,185 1,261 1,258 1,190 1,192 1,182 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,197 1,278 1,285 1,208 1,211 1,199 Cambridge ELC PreK Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Casa Azafran ELC Pre-Sch PreK Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 8 7 Grand Total Ivanetta H. Davis ELC Pre-Sch PreK Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Ross ELC Pre-Sch PreK Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Glendale Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 6 12 Grand Total /6/2019

27 Cora Howe Harris-Hillman Murrell at Glenn Hillwood Cluster Charlotte Park PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Gower Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Westmeade PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

28 Harpeth Valley PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hill MP TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Bellevue MP TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Hillwood HS TOTAL Total 1,132 1,179 1,148 1,085 1,087 1,060 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,155 1,209 1,172 1,101 1,105 1, /6/2019

29 Johnson ALC TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 1 1 Grand Total Big Picture HS Martha Vaught Total W.A BASS ALC Total Transition High Total Overton Cluster Norman Binkley PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

30 Crieve Hall PreK 5 K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Haywood PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Tusculum PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Granbery PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

31 Shayne Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Croft TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total McMurray TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

32 Oliver MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Overton TOTAL Total 1,867 1,894 1,994 2,004 1,922 1,910 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,897 1,923 2,027 2,023 1,941 1, /6/2019

33 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT Antioch Cluster Lakeview Design Center PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total J.E. Moss PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Smith Springs Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

34 Edison Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Mt. View PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Una PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Apollo MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

35 Kennedy MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Margaret Allen TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Antioch HS TOTAL Total 2,064 2,104 2,099 2,006 1,915 1,845 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 2,102 2,144 2,140 2,047 1,961 1,890 Cane Ridge Cluster Cole PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

36 Cane Ridge ES Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 967 1, Eagle View ES Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped 4 5 Grand Total A.Z. Kelley PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Maxwell PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total /6/2019

37 Antioch MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Marshall MS TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Cane Ridge HS TOTAL Total 1,713 1,738 1,782 1,840 1,730 1,695 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,736 1,764 1,800 1,856 1,734 1,698 The Academy at Hickory Hollow Unstructured grades, students Total The Academy at Old Cockrill 11 -Unstructured grades, students Total The Academy at Opry Mills 11 -Unstructured grades, students Total /6/2019

38 Glencliff Cluster Fall-Hamilton EOS Pre-Sch PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Glenview PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Whitsitt Pre-Sch 1 1 PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Glencliff Elementary PreK K Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Grand Total /6/2019

39 Glengarry PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Paragon Mills PreK K Total Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Wright TOTAL Total Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total Glencliff HS TOTAL Total 1,465 1,433 1,326 1,232 1,150 1,098 Special Ed (Self-Contained) Sped Grand Total 1,489 1,459 1,361 1,252 1,168 1,111 THE COHN LEARNING CENTER Total /6/2019

40 Middle College HS Total Virtual Total /6/2019

41 Name -15 Enrollment -16 Enrollment -17 Enrollment -18 Enrollment -19 Enrollment Projected Brick Church College Prep Total Cameron College Prep Total Classical K Total East End Prep K Total Explore Community K Total /5/2019

42 Name -15 Enrollment -16 Enrollment -17 Enrollment -18 Enrollment -19 Enrollment Projected Intrepid Independence Academy Total KIPP Academy Nashville Total KIPP HS Total KIPP Nashville Collegiate Prep Total KIPP Academy Nasvhille ES K Total KIPP Nasvhille ES K Total KIPP Antioch College Prep ES K Total KIPP Antioch College Prep MS Total 100 Knowledge Academy Total /5/2019

43 Name -15 Enrollment -16 Enrollment -17 Enrollment -18 Enrollment -19 Enrollment Projected The Crossings Total Knowledge Academy High Total LEAD Academy High Total Lead Prep Southeast Total Liberty Collegiate Academy Total RePublic High Nashville Academy of Computer Science Total Total Nashville Prep Total Neelys Bend College Prep Total New Vision Academy Total /5/2019

44 Name -15 Enrollment -16 Enrollment -17 Enrollment -18 Enrollment -19 Enrollment Projected Purpose K Total Rocketship Tennessee K Total Rocketship United K Total Smithson Craighead K Total STEM Prep Total STEM Prep High Total Strive Collegiate Academy Total Valor Flagship Academy Total Valor Voyager Academy Total /5/2019

45 Appendix Year Live Births and Kindergarten Enrollment Births 5 Years Prior Kindergarten Enrollment Capture Rate ,409 7, % ,966 7, % ,991 7, % ,100 7, % 9,774 7, % 9,557 7, % 9,601 7, % 9,721 6, % 9,911 6, % ,275 N/A 43

46 HUNTERS LANE WHITES CREEK MAPLEWOOD STRATFORD PEARL-COHN MCGAVOCK GLENCLIFF HILLWOOD HILLSBORO ANTIOCH OVERTON CANE RIDGE Ü Nashville-Davidson Metro Governm, Esri, HERE, Garmin, INCREMENT P, NGA, USGS Miles MNPS Enrollment Growth/Decline 1 yr Day40 - to 2019 Range -83 to 129 Data Source: Student Assignment Service, Geocode Students, -19 school year, -19 school year summed to Census Block Group. Cluster DELTA -66 to to to to to 15-6 to to 20 Print Date: 11/26/ -1 to to to 80 1 to to to 129 The geographic data layers and information were produced by MNPS Student Assignment Services are provided as a public resource. Metro s makes no warranties, expressed or implied concerning the accuracy, completeness or suitability of this data, and it should not be construed or used as a legal description. Every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the data. Path: G:\GIS\Projects\VariousRequests\Nate\Maps\Nate_misc.aprx

47 HUNTERS LANE WHITES CREEK MAPLEWOOD STRATFORD PEARL-COHN MCGAVOCK GLENCLIFF HILLWOOD HILLSBORO ANTIOCH OVERTON CANE RIDGE Ü Nashville-Davidson Metro Governm, Esri, HERE, Garmin, INCREMENT P, NGA, USGS Miles MNPS Enrollment Growth/Decline yr Day40 - to 2019 Range -19 to 8 Data Source: Student Assignment Service, Geocode Students, -19 school year, school year summed to Census Block Group. Cluster Delta -136 to to to to to to to 15 Print Date: 11/2 / -6 to to 20-1 to to to135 1 to to 68 The geographic data layers and information were produced by MNPS Student Assignment Services are provided as a public resource. Metro s makes no warranties, expressed or implied concerning the accuracy, completeness or suitability of this data, and it should not be construed or used as a legal description. Every reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the data. Path: G:\GIS\Projects\VariousRequests\Nate\Maps\Nate_misc.aprx

48 MEMBERSHIP FOR TEN-YEAR PERIOD AVERAGE SURVIVAL RATIO USING DAY 40 MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP AS BASE (3-Year Cohort Survival Analysis) PRELIMINARY FALL PROJECTIONS AVG. BIRTHS SURVIVAL 5 YRS. 9,911 10,275 10,322 10,021 10,314 10,406 10,499 10,591 10,684 10,776 10,869 RATIO PRIOR (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) Est Births Est Births Est Births Est Births Est Births Est Births Est Births GR. 1 6,703 6,870 7,199 7,233 7,022 7,227 7,291 7,356 7,421 7,486 7, GR. 2 6,752 6,537 6,700 7,021 7,054 6,848 7,048 7,110 7,174 7,237 7, GR. 3 6,652 6,510 6,303 6,460 6,770 6,801 6,603 6,796 6,855 6,917 6, GR. 4 6,560 6,481 6,343 6,141 6,294 6,596 6,626 6,433 6,622 6,679 6, GR. 5 6,710 6,220 6,145 6,014 5,823 5,968 6,254 6,282 6,099 6,279 6, GR. 6 6,636 6,538 6,060 5,987 5,860 5,674 5,815 6,094 6,121 5,942 6, GR. 7 6,264 6,475 6,380 5,913 5,842 5,718 5,537 5,674 5,947 5,973 5, GR. 8 6,130 6,144 6,351 6,258 5,800 5,730 5,608 5,431 5,565 5,833 5, GR. 9 5,856 6,543 6,558 6,779 6,680 6,191 6,116 5,986 5,797 5,940 6, GR. 10 5,558 5,225 5,838 5,851 6,048 5,960 5,524 5,457 5,341 5,172 5, GR. 11 5,565 5,206 4,894 5,468 5,480 5,665 5,582 5,174 5,111 5,003 4, GR. 12 5,005 5,147 4,815 4,526 5,057 5,068 5,239 5,163 4,785 4,727 4,627 GR ,391 73,896 73,586 73,651 73,730 73,446 73,243 72,956 72,838 73,188 73, Kinderg. 6,967 7,301 7,335 7,121 7,329 7,394 7,460 7,526 7,592 7,657 7,723 TOTAL K-12 81,358 81,197 80,921 80,772 81,059 80,840 80,703 80,482 80,430 80,845 81,395 Spec. Ed ,077 1,075 1,079 1,076 1,074 1,072 1,071 1,076 1,084 GRAND TOTAL 82,330 82,167 81,998 81,847 82,138 81,916 81,777 81,554 81,501 81,921 82,479 NOTES Live births for and subsequent years are estimates based on information provided by the State Health Department. 05-Feb-19 Pre-Kindergarten students are not included. 46