DRAFT. Enrollment Projections Report. November 25, 2015

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1 November 25, Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, Ohio P: f:

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3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 1 Executive Summary... 3 Enrollment Projection Methodology... 4 U.S. Census... 7 General Demographics... 8 Housing Data Live Birth Data Survival Ratios Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment Historical & Projected Enrollment by School Enrollment by School Conclusion /25/2015 1

4 Acknowledgements On behalf of DeJONG-RICHTER, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Canutillo Independent School District for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Canutillo Independent School District for years to come. DeJONG-RICHTER David Sturtz, Project Director Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services Alex Boyer, GIS Analyst 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH P /25/2015 2

5 Executive Summary The enrollment projections for the Canutillo Independent School District included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and DeJONG- RICHTER s custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience DeJONG-RICHTER has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed by analyzing the following data: Live birth data Historical enrollment by school, by grade Census data Building permits The Canutillo Independent School District enrollment has increased by 456 students since the school year. Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to decrease slightly over the next ten years. As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Canutillo Independent School District. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development. 7,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Canutillo Independent School District 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High 11/25/2015 3

6 Enrollment Projection Methodology Introduction Tracing the landscape of the country s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report U.S. Population - Live Birth Rate per 1,000 Population 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Nationwide, districts have experienced the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live birth rate increased for the first time in several years in 1998 and increased again in However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 12.5 (per 1,000) in 2013 (preliminary). When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment: Boom U.S. Total Live Births Bust Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report Echo Boom Echo Bust Boundary adjustments New school openings Changes/additions in program offerings Preschool programs Change in grade configuration Interest rates/unemployment shifts Magnet/Charter/Private school opening or closure Zoning changes Unplanned new housing activity Planned, but not built, housing School voucher programs 11/25/2015 4

7 Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections. When looking ahead at a school district s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures? The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Canutillo Independent School District were developed using the cohort survival method. 11/25/2015 5

8 Cohort Survival Method A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on. A survival ratio is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge and can be folded into projections by using the survival ratio as a multiplier. For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments. The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily, or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and housing patterns from year to year. 100 Kindergarteners TIME 105 1st Graders 110 2nd Graders 11/25/2015 6

9 U.S. Census According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in El Paso County, Texas increased from 679,622 to 800,647, or approximately 18 percent, between the 2000 and 2010 Census. In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population increased by 22,466, or 12.4 percent. The under age 5 population increased from 58,989 to 64,621, or 9.5 percent. The median age of an El Paso County, Texas resident is 31.3, an increase of 1.3 years since the 2000 Census. The average household size remained relatively the same from 3.18 to The average family size has remained relatively the same from 3.63 to The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of occupied housing units. The number of vacant housing units decreased between the 2000 and 2010 Census. The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data. El Paso County U.S. Census Subject Total population 679, ,647 SEX AND AGE Male 327, ,876 Female 351, ,771 Under 5 years 58,989 64,621 5 to 19 years 180, , to 64 years 373, , years and over 66,073 82,223 Median age (years) RACE One Race 96.8% 97.5% White 73.9% 82.1% Black or African American 3.1% 3.1% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.8% 0.8% Asian 1.0% 1.0% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.1% 0.1% Some Other Race 17.9% 10.5% Two or More Races 3.2% 2.5% Hispanic or Latino 78.2% 82.2% DEMOGRAPHICS Average household size Average family size HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 224, ,307 Occupied housing units 210, ,557 Vacant housing units 14,425 13,750 Source: U.S. Census 11/25/2015 7

10 General Demographics The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time. According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of El Paso County, Texas is projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to increase by 5,129 children. 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 El Paso County Population Estimates Age Ages ,279 43,843 Ages ,815 28,597 Ages ,802 82,487 Ages ,326 41,010 Ages ,629 66,389 Ages , ,886 Total Population 854, ,203 Source: ESRI BIS El Paso County Population Estimates Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages Ages /25/2015 8

11 Canutillo Independent School District Area Estimated School Aged Population Growth The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within/around the Canutillo Independent School District boundary. Population changes are based on 2015 and 2020 estimates. A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, a statistical division of a census tract, generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data. 11/25/2015 9

12 Housing Data Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table and graphs below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in El Paso County, Texas since ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 El Paso County # of building permits issued year single-family multi-family , , , , , ,333 1, , ,190 1, ,897 1, , ,961 1, , ,176 1, ,613 1, , * 1, Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary through September Single-Family Building Permits El Paso County 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Multi-Family Building Permits El Paso County 11/25/

13 Live Birth Data Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District. In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years earlier. The survival ratios for birth-tokindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on page 13 of this report. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in El Paso but delivers her baby in Dallas, the birth is counted in El Paso. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. The chart and graph includes the live birth counts for zip codes within the Canutillo Independent School District.. Zip Codes within Canutillo ISD Year Total ,122 1, , ,135 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,117 1, , , , ,052 1, , ,031 1, , ,009 1, , , ,246 Data Source: Texas Live Birth Certificate, Finalized Statistical Files, Limited to Resident Mothers of the Specified Zip Codes Prepared by the Texas Department of State Health Services, Center for Health Statistics, on 10/30/15 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 11/25/ Canutillo ISD Live Birth Count by Zip Code

14 11/25/

15 Survival Ratios The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the school year were present in 2nd grade for the school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent. Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual number. The following tables illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Canutillo Independent School District over the past ten years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to to to % % 23.93% % % % % 95.49% % % % 77.39% 98.41% 90.46% % % 24.24% % % 99.27% % % % % % 77.78% 93.81% 88.14% % % 21.33% % % 99.34% % 99.30% % % % 79.17% 83.22% % % % 23.81% % % % 98.00% 98.58% % % % 79.96% 95.24% % % % 21.32% 97.18% % % % 98.64% % % % 90.52% 92.53% % % % 22.49% 99.52% % 98.07% % 96.83% % % % 93.93% 91.58% % % % 22.78% % % 99.54% 99.26% 93.58% 99.77% % % 91.46% 91.00% 94.39% % 99.54% 23.28% 93.55% 98.65% 97.10% 98.61% 92.31% 99.31% 96.01% % 93.64% 99.58% 97.20% % % 22.41% 97.93% % % 98.76% 94.12% % 99.54% % 95.65% 95.12% 98.93% mean simple all years 22.14% % 22.84% % % % % 96.64% % % % 86.61% 93.39% 97.65% std. dev. simple all years 0.99% 3.93% 1.07% 3.61% 1.88% 1.97% 2.33% 2.94% 1.88% 3.01% 8.42% 7.79% 4.79% 5.82% mean simple 5 years 22.67% % 22.46% 97.86% % 99.38% 99.33% 95.09% % % % 93.04% 93.96% 98.54% std. dev. simple 5 years 0.70% 1.33% 0.72% 2.85% 2.47% 1.89% 0.66% 2.58% 2.01% 3.44% 8.63% 2.05% 3.51% 2.93% mean simple 3 years 22.93% % 22.82% 97.54% % 98.96% 98.88% 93.33% % 99.99% % 93.58% 95.23% 96.84% std. dev. simple 3 years 0.73% 0.98% 0.44% 3.81% 1.41% 1.64% 0.34% 0.93% 0.91% 4.23% 11.26% 2.10% 4.29% 2.29% mean simple 2 years 22.70% % 22.85% 95.74% % 98.66% 98.68% 93.21% % 97.77% % 94.65% 97.35% 98.07% std. dev. simple 2 years 0.87% 1.36% 0.62% 3.10% 2.00% 2.21% 0.10% 1.28% 1.25% 2.50% 14.80% 1.42% 3.15% 1.22% mean weighted all years 22.65% % 22.69% 98.24% % 99.45% 99.34% 94.83% % % % 91.95% 94.54% 98.26% std. dev. weighted all years 0.82% 2.53% 0.71% 3.39% 2.01% 1.82% 1.41% 2.50% 1.76% 3.31% 9.79% 5.46% 3.90% 3.54% mean weighted 5 years 22.93% % 22.65% 97.27% % 99.27% 98.88% 93.87% % 99.46% % 94.39% 95.49% 98.09% std. dev. weighted 5 years 0.63% 1.10% 0.48% 2.71% 1.80% 1.57% 0.43% 1.49% 1.35% 2.92% 11.05% 1.75% 3.14% 1.90% mean weighted 3 years 23.10% % 22.58% 97.28% % 99.65% 98.75% 93.78% % 99.11% % 95.13% 95.74% 98.45% std. dev. weighted 3 years 0.57% 0.92% 0.41% 2.24% 1.33% 1.45% 0.14% 0.84% 0.85% 2.10% 10.25% 1.30% 2.38% 1.29% mean weighted 2 years 23.25% % 22.45% 97.72% % % 98.75% 94.03% % 99.37% % 95.56% 95.33% 98.85% std. dev. weighted 2 years 0.37% 0.58% 0.26% 1.32% 0.85% 0.94% 0.04% 0.55% 0.53% 1.06% 6.30% 0.61% 1.34% 0.52% 11/25/

16 Canutillo Independent School District Historical Enrollment As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Canutillo Independent School District has increased by 456 students. Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade EE PK K Grand Total 5,529 5,639 5,745 5,867 5,967 6,031 6,068 6,001 5,891 5,985 Source: Canutillo Independent School District Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade EE PK K - 5 2,452 2,512 2,505 2,531 2,576 2,579 2,594 2,564 2,516 2, ,279 1,247 1,279 1,297 1,319 1,321 1,315 1,335 1,215 1, ,472 1,655 1,704 1,760 1,804 1,881 1,893 1,860 1,921 1,962 Grand Total 5,529 5,639 5,745 5,867 5,967 6,031 6,068 6,001 5,891 5,985 Source: Canutillo Independent School District 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Historical Enrollment - District-wide 11/25/

17 Projected Enrollment DeJONG-RICHTER developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the Canutillo Independent School District. The low projection illustrates a conservative approach reflecting an economy that may have higher inflation/interest rates, a decline in new housing, and/or a decline in live births. The high projection takes a more liberal approach and reflects an economy that may have lower inflation/interest rates, a high level of new housing, and/or an increase in live births. The moderate falls in between these two approaches. The recommended projection illustrates the most likely direction of the District based on more recent trends in the District. 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Canutillo Independent School District Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High 11/25/

18 Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment Recommended Based on the recommended projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Canutillo Independent School District is projected to decrease from 5,985 in to 5,889 students in Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide EE PK K Grand Total 5,984 5,997 5,955 5,954 5,913 5,937 5,938 5,907 5,855 5,889 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide EE PK K - 5 2,484 2,426 2,402 2,397 2,419 2,437 2,427 2,427 2,438 2, ,189 1,261 1,242 1,229 1,143 1,144 1,151 1,200 1,206 1, ,013 2,012 2,013 2,030 2,053 2,058 2,062 1,982 1,913 1,962 Grand Total 5,984 5,997 5,955 5,954 5,913 5,937 5,938 5,907 5,855 5,889 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide 11/25/

19 Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment Moderate Based on the moderate projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Canutillo Independent School District is projected to decrease from 5,985 in to 5,831 students in Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide EE PK K Grand Total 5,967 5,962 5,906 5,888 5,851 5,869 5,880 5,851 5,797 5,831 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide EE PK K - 5 2,485 2,428 2,407 2,404 2,431 2,449 2,441 2,440 2,452 2, ,188 1,260 1,240 1,225 1,138 1,138 1,150 1,201 1,206 1, ,996 1,976 1,961 1,961 1,984 1,984 1,991 1,912 1,841 1,890 Grand Total 5,967 5,962 5,906 5,888 5,851 5,869 5,880 5,851 5,797 5,831 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide 11/25/

20 Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment Low Based on the low projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Canutillo Independent School District is projected to decrease from 5,985 in to 5,245 students in Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide EE PK K Grand Total 5,857 5,755 5,625 5,531 5,441 5,413 5,375 5,312 5,235 5,245 Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide EE PK K - 5 2,426 2,322 2,274 2,247 2,265 2,275 2,268 2,268 2,279 2, ,172 1,225 1,185 1,152 1,049 1,036 1,029 1,069 1,066 1, ,961 1,910 1,868 1,834 1,829 1,804 1,780 1,677 1,592 1,613 Grand Total 5,857 5,755 5,625 5,531 5,441 5,413 5,375 5,312 5,235 5,245 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide 11/25/

21 Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment High Based on the high projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Canutillo Independent School District is projected to increase from 5,985 in to 6,495 students in Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide EE PK K Grand Total 6,076 6,166 6,198 6,256 6,281 6,356 6,421 6,439 6,424 6,495 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide EE PK K - 5 2,544 2,531 2,541 2,561 2,604 2,630 2,622 2,622 2,636 2, ,203 1,294 1,298 1,301 1,230 1,248 1,280 1,349 1,367 1, ,031 2,043 2,061 2,096 2,149 2,180 2,221 2,170 2,123 2,212 Grand Total 6,076 6,166 6,198 6,256 6,281 6,356 6,421 6,439 6,424 6,495 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide 11/25/

22 Canutillo Independent School District Historical & Projected Enrollment by School The tables below illustrate historical and projected enrollment for each school in the District. Historical Enrollment by School Grade Bill Childress EL C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS 1,472 1,655 1,608 1,567 1,541 1,572 1,617 1,607 1,639 1,640 Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H Damian EL Jose J Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS Grand Total 5,529 5,639 5,745 5,867 5,967 6,031 6,068 6,001 5,891 5,985 Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment by School - Recommended Bill Childress EL C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS 1,650 1,636 1,630 1,643 1,661 1,666 1,670 1,607 1,548 1,588 Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H Damian EL Jose J Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS Grand Total 5,984 5,997 5,955 5,954 5,913 5,937 5,938 5,907 5,855 5,889 Projected Enrollment by School - Moderate Bill Childress EL C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS 1,638 1,612 1,594 1,595 1,611 1,614 1,619 1,556 1,497 1,537 Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H Damian EL Jose J Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS Grand Total 5,967 5,962 5,906 5,888 5,851 5,869 5,880 5,851 5,797 5,831 Projected Enrollment by School - Low Bill Childress EL C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS 1,614 1,566 1,527 1,503 1,498 1,478 1,459 1,376 1,305 1,322 Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H Damian EL Jose J Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS Grand Total 5,857 5,755 5,625 5,531 5,441 5,413 5,375 5,312 5,235 5,245 Projected Enrollment by School - High Bill Childress EL C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS 1,661 1,658 1,664 1,692 1,733 1,760 1,793 1,753 1,713 1,785 Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H Damian EL Jose J Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS Grand Total 6,076 6,166 6,198 6,256 6,281 6,356 6,421 6,439 6,424 6,495 11/25/

23 Enrollment by School The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by school. Bill Childress EL C. Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Canutillo EL Canutillo HS Canutillo Middle Deanna Davenport EL Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Jose H. Damian EL Jose J. Alderete Middle Northwest Early College HS /25/

24 Bill Childress EL Historical Enrollment - Bill Childress EL Grade EE 10 NA NA NA PK K Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Bill Childress EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Bill Childress EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Bill Childress EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Bill Childress EL PK K Grand Total /25/

25 C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Historical Enrollment - C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL Grade EE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 8 PK NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 53 K NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 96 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 60 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 65 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 49 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 75 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 53 Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - C Silvestre and Carolina Reyes EL EE PK K Grand Total /25/

26 Canutillo EL Historical Enrollment - Canutillo EL Grade EE NA 2 PK K Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Canutillo EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Canutillo EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Canutillo EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Canutillo EL EE PK K Grand Total /25/

27 Canutillo HS Historical Enrollment - Canutillo HS Grade Grand Total 1,472 1,655 1,608 1,567 1,541 1,572 1,617 1,607 1,639 1,640 Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Canutillo HS Grand Total 1,650 1,636 1,630 1,643 1,661 1,666 1,670 1,607 1,548 1,588 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Canutillo HS Grand Total 1,638 1,612 1,594 1,595 1,611 1,614 1,619 1,556 1,497 1,537 Projected Enrollment - Low - Canutillo HS Grand Total 1,614 1,566 1,527 1,503 1,498 1,478 1,459 1,376 1,305 1,322 Projected Enrollment - High - Canutillo HS Grand Total 1,661 1,658 1,664 1,692 1,733 1,760 1,793 1,753 1,713 1,785 11/25/

28 Canutillo Middle Historical Enrollment - Canutillo Middle Grade Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Canutillo Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Canutillo Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Canutillo Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Canutillo Middle Grand Total /25/

29 Deanna Davenport EL Historical Enrollment - Deanna Davenport EL Grade EE NA PK K Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Deanna Davenport EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Deanna Davenport EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Deanna Davenport EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Deanna Davenport EL PK K Grand Total /25/

30 Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Historical Enrollment - Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL Grade EE NA NA 3 3 NA PK NA NA NA K NA NA NA NA NA NA Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Gonzalo and Sofia Garcia EL PK K Grand Total /25/

31 Jose H. Damian EL Historical Enrollment - Jose H Damian EL Grade EE PK K Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Jose H Damian EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Jose H Damian EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Jose H Damian EL EE PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Jose H Damian EL EE PK K Grand Total /25/

32 Jose J. Alderete Middle Historical Enrollment - Jose J Alderete Middle Grade Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Jose J Alderete Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Jose J Alderete Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Jose J Alderete Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Jose J Alderete Middle Grand Total /25/

33 Northwest Early College HS Historical Enrollment - Northwest Early College HS Grade NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Grand Total Source: Canutillo Independent School District Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Northwest Early College HS Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Northwest Early College HS Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Northwest Early College HS Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Northwest Early College HS Grand Total /25/

34 Conclusion As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in elementary schools, open enrollment, non-public enrollment, in/out migration patterns, and any housing growth. It is recommended that this document be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent growth and enrollment trends will impact the enrollment projections. DeJONG-RICHTER is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed decisions about the future of the Canutillo Independent School District. 11/25/

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