GREENE COUNTY SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS REPORT APRIL 12, 2017

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1 APRIL 12, 2017 PREPARED FOR: Greene County Schools 910 West Summer Street Greeneville, TN T PREPARED BY: Cooperative Strategies 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH T

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3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 2 Executive Summary... 3 Enrollment Projection Methodology... 5 U.S. Census... 8 General Demographics... 9 Housing Data Live Birth Data Survival Ratios Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment Recommended Projected Enrollment Moderate Historical & Projected Enrollment by School Conclusion... 37

4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS On behalf of Cooperative Strategies, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Greene County Schools for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Greene County Schools for years to come. COOPERATIVE STRATEGIES Tracy Richter, President / Partner Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services Matt Sachs, GIS Analyst 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH P PAGE 2

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The enrollment projections for the Greene County Schools included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and Cooperative Strategies custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience Cooperative Strategies has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed by analyzing the following data: Live birth data Historical enrollment by school, by grade Census data Building permits The Greene County Schools enrollment has decreased by 493 students, including PK, since the school year. Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to decrease over the next ten years. 8,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Greene County Schools 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate PAGE 3

6 As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Greene County Schools. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development. PAGE 4

7 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction Tracing the landscape of the country s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s U.S. POPULATION - LIVE BIRTH RATE PER 1,000 POPULATION Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Boom Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report Nationwide, districts have experienced the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live birth rate increased for the first time in several years in 1998 and increased again in However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 12.5 (per 1,000) in 2013 (preliminary). U.S. TOTAL LIVE BIRTHS Bust Echo Boom Echo Bust PAGE 5

8 When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment: Boundary adjustments New school openings Changes / additions in program offerings Preschool programs Change in grade configuration Interest rates / unemployment shifts Zoning changes Magnet / Charter / Private school opening or closure Unplanned new housing activity Planned, but not built, housing School voucher programs Inter- or Intra-district transfer policy change Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections. When looking ahead at a school district s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being homeschooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures? The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Greene County Schools were developed using the cohort survival method. PAGE 6

9 Cohort Survival Method A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on. A survival ratio is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge and can be folded into projections by using the survival ratio as a multiplier. For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments. The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily, or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and housing patterns from year to year. PAGE 7

10 U.S. CENSUS According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Greene County, Tennessee increased from 62,909 to 68,831, or approximately 9 percent, between the 2000 and 2010 Census. In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population increased by 830, or 7 percent. The under age 5 population increased from 3,633 to 3,672, or 1 percent. The median age of a Greene County, Tennessee resident is 42.6 an increase of 3.7 years since the 2000 Census. The average household size remained relatively the same from 2.38 to The average family size has remained relatively the same from 2.84 to The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of occupied and vacant housing units. The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data. GREENE COUNTY, TN U.S. CENSUS Total population 62,909 68,831 SEX AND AGE Male 30,657 33,766 Female 32,252 35,065 Under 5 years 3,633 3,672 5 to 19 years 11,921 12, to 64 years 38,039 40, years and over 9,316 12,006 Median age (years) RACE One Race 99.4% 98.8% White 96.4% 95.0% Black or African American 2.1% 2.0% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.2% 0.2% Asian 0.3% 0.4% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% Some Other Race 0.4% 1.2% Two or More Races 0.6% 1.2% Hispanic or Latino 1.0% 2.5% DEMOGRAPHICS Average household size Average family size HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 28,116 32,025 Occupied housing units 25,756 28,018 Vacant housing units 2,360 4,007 Source: U.S. Census PAGE 8

11 GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time. According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Greene County, Tennessee is projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to decrease by 17 children. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 GREENE COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES Age 2016 Estimate 2021 Estimate Ages 0-2 2,040 1,891 Ages 3-4 1,390 1,300 Ages ,535 4,332 Ages ,415 2,453 Ages ,948 4,096 Ages ,898 10,881 Total Population 69,139 69,212 Source: ESRI BIS GREENE COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES - Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages Ages Estimate 2021 Estimate PAGE 9

12 ESTIMATED SCHOOL AGED POPULATION GROWTH The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within / around the Greene County Schools boundary. Population changes are based on 2016 and 2021 estimates. A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, a statistical division of a census tract, generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data. Legend District Boundary School Aged Population Change Estimate >15% 11% - 15% 6% - 10% 1% - 5% -5% - 0% -10% - -6% -15% - -11% < -15% PAGE 10

13 HOUSING DATA Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in Greene County, Tennessee since GREENE COUNTY, TN # OF BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED Year Single-family Multi-Family * 12 0 Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary PAGE 11

14 LIVE BIRTH DATA Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District. In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-tofirst grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years earlier. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on page 18 of this report. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Greene County but delivers her baby in Knox County, the birth is counted in Greene County. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. The chart and graph includes the live birth counts for residents of Greene County. RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS Year Greene County Source: Tennessee Department of Health, Tennessee Birth Statistical System GREENE COUNTY, TN RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS PAGE 12

15 SURVIVAL RATIOS The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the school year were present in 2nd grade for the school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent. Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual number. The following table illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Greene County Schools over the past ten years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to to to % % 74.52% 98.01% 98.17% % 98.69% % 99.81% % % 97.04% 86.69% % % % 75.64% 99.08% 96.67% % 98.05% 98.48% % 99.02% % 98.49% 83.95% % % % 76.05% 97.32% 99.44% % 99.44% % % % % 89.38% 91.14% % % % 78.27% 96.13% 94.85% % 98.86% % % % % 97.45% 96.04% % % % 73.70% 91.55% 99.04% 97.29% 96.50% 99.42% % % % 99.29% 95.52% 98.75% % % 72.91% 94.27% 99.06% % % % % 99.08% % 97.63% 92.28% % % 98.69% 73.77% 91.26% % 94.11% % % 98.68% % % 97.77% 99.81% 99.22% % % 66.99% 93.35% 91.82% 97.01% 98.79% 97.57% 98.65% % % 99.47% 96.32% 97.38% % % 74.03% 94.43% % % % % % % 96.77% 96.10% 97.14% 94.91% mean simple all years 71.73% % 73.99% 95.04% 97.99% 99.70% 99.56% % % % % 96.96% 93.21% % std. dev. simple all years 3.13% 2.44% 3.08% 2.78% 3.12% 2.97% 1.97% 1.60% 1.23% 2.37% 4.06% 3.03% 5.19% 4.47% mean simple 5 years 70.70% % 72.28% 92.97% 98.55% 98.53% % % % % % 98.05% 96.22% 98.05% std. dev. simple 5 years 3.53% 1.76% 2.99% 1.49% 3.95% 3.64% 2.53% 1.86% 1.66% 1.95% 3.31% 1.38% 2.73% 2.00% mean simple 3 years 69.01% % 71.60% 93.01% 98.22% 98.20% % % 99.81% % % 97.78% 97.76% 97.17% std. dev. simple 3 years 3.45% 2.40% 3.99% 1.61% 5.55% 4.80% 1.87% 2.48% 1.99% 1.78% 3.85% 1.68% 1.83% 2.16% mean simple 2 years 70.92% % 70.51% 93.89% 96.62% % 99.91% % % % 98.57% 97.78% 96.73% 96.14% std. dev. simple 2 years 1.41% 0.13% 4.98% 0.77% 6.79% 4.58% 1.58% 3.46% 2.45% 2.51% 2.55% 2.38% 0.58% 1.75% mean weighted all years 70.65% % 72.61% 93.83% 98.31% 99.57% % % % % % 97.40% 96.00% 98.01% std. dev. weighted all years 3.02% 1.95% 3.40% 1.89% 4.08% 3.65% 1.88% 1.97% 1.61% 2.01% 3.93% 2.12% 3.31% 3.21% mean weighted 5 years 70.18% % 72.13% 93.69% 98.77% % % % % % 99.23% 97.33% 96.93% 96.45% std. dev. weighted 5 years 2.52% 1.53% 3.38% 1.22% 4.61% 4.05% 1.57% 2.29% 1.83% 2.00% 3.33% 1.63% 1.74% 2.03% mean weighted 3 years 70.08% % 72.78% 94.12% 99.74% % % % % % 97.70% 96.75% 97.10% 95.51% std. dev. weighted 3 years 1.52% 1.01% 3.27% 0.87% 4.48% 3.58% 1.13% 2.28% 1.74% 1.68% 2.37% 1.58% 0.77% 1.47% mean weighted 2 years 70.01% % 73.69% 94.38% % % % % % % 96.94% 96.26% 97.10% 95.03% std. dev. weighted 2 years 0.60% 0.05% 2.12% 0.33% 2.89% 1.95% 0.67% 1.47% 1.04% 1.07% 1.09% 1.01% 0.25% 0.74% PAGE 13

16 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Greene County Schools has decreased by 493 students. Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK NA K Grand Total 7,217 7,486 7,413 7,375 7,302 7,226 7,160 7,052 6,861 6,724 Source: Greene County Schools Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK NA K - 5 3,246 3,257 3,215 3,246 3,192 3,138 3,136 3,029 2,854 2, ,625 1,643 1,562 1,629 1,624 1,620 1,593 1,576 1,557 1, ,346 2,327 2,337 2,211 2,190 2,168 2,145 2,177 2,167 2,091 Grand Total 7,217 7,486 7,413 7,375 7,302 7,226 7,160 7,052 6,861 6,724 Source: Greene County Schools 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Historical Enrollment - District-wide PAGE 14

17 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL The following table illustrates historical enrollment for each school in the District. School Trend Baileyton Elementary Camp Creek Elementary Chuckey Doak High School Chuckey Doak Middle Chuckey Elementary Debusk Elementary Doak Elementary Glenwood Elementary McDonald Elementary Mosheim Elementary 954 1,039 1,043 1,039 1,071 1,094 1,066 1, Nolachuckey Elementary North Greene High School Ottway Elementary South Greene High School West Greene High School West Pines Elementary Total 7,217 7,486 7,413 7,375 7,302 7,226 7,160 7,052 6,861 6,724 Source: Greene County Schools PAGE 15

18 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT RECOMMENDED Based on the recommended projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Greene County Schools is projected to decrease from 6,724 students in to 6,072 students in Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K Grand Total 6,612 6,502 6,454 6,415 6,340 6,257 6,204 6,155 6,128 6,072 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K - 5 2,733 2,693 2,643 2,636 2,637 2,670 2,694 2,692 2,686 2, ,546 1,496 1,501 1,471 1,422 1,325 1,291 1,300 1,342 1, ,066 2,046 2,043 2,041 2,014 1,995 1,952 1,896 1,833 1,745 Grand Total 6,612 6,502 6,454 6,415 6,340 6,257 6,204 6,155 6,128 6,072 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PAGE 16

19 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL RECOMMENDED The following table illustrates projected enrollment for each school in the District. School Trend Baileyton Elementary Camp Creek Elementary Chuckey Doak High School Chuckey Doak Middle Chuckey Elementary Debusk Elementary Doak Elementary Glenwood Elementary McDonald Elementary Mosheim Elementary Nolachuckey Elementary North Greene High School Ottway Elementary South Greene High School West Greene High School West Pines Elementary Total 6,612 6,502 6,454 6,415 6,340 6,257 6,204 6,155 6,128 6,072 PAGE 17

20 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT MODERATE Based on the moderate projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Greene County Schools is projected to decrease from 6,724 students in to 6,268 students in Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K Grand Total 6,608 6,518 6,485 6,450 6,433 6,380 6,351 6,331 6,307 6,268 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K - 5 2,748 2,727 2,679 2,659 2,666 2,690 2,717 2,713 2,704 2, ,564 1,531 1,558 1,544 1,518 1,427 1,395 1,403 1,436 1, ,029 1,993 1,981 1,980 1,982 1,996 1,972 1,948 1,900 1,824 Grand Total 6,608 6,518 6,485 6,450 6,433 6,380 6,351 6,331 6,307 6,268 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Districtwide PAGE 18

21 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL MODERATE The following table illustrates projected enrollment for each school in the District. School Trend Baileyton Elementary Camp Creek Elementary Chuckey Doak High School Chuckey Doak Middle Chuckey Elementary Debusk Elementary Doak Elementary Glenwood Elementary McDonald Elementary Mosheim Elementary Nolachuckey Elementary North Greene High School Ottway Elementary South Greene High School West Greene High School West Pines Elementary Total 6,608 6,518 6,485 6,450 6,433 6,380 6,351 6,331 6,307 6,268 PAGE 19

22 ENROLLMENT BY SCHOOL The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by school. Baileyton Elementary Camp Creek Elementary Chuckey Doak High School Chuckey Doak Middle Chuckey Elementary Debusk Elementary Doak Elementary Glenwood Elementary McDonald Elementary Mosheim Elementary Nolachuckey Elementary North Greene High School Ottway Elementary South Greene High School West Greene High School West Pines Elementary PAGE 20

23 BAILEYTON ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Baileyton Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Baileyton Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Baileyton Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 21

24 CAMP CREEK ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Camp Creek Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Camp Creek Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Camp Creek Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 22

25 CHUCKEY DOAK HIGH SCHOOL Historical Enrollment - Chuckey Doak High School Grade Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Chuckey Doak High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Chuckey Doak High School Grand Total PAGE 23

26 CHUCKEY DOAK MIDDLE Historical Enrollment - Chuckey Doak Middle Grade Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Chuckey Doak Middle Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Chuckey Doak Middle Grand Total PAGE 24

27 CHUCKEY ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Chuckey Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Chuckey Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Chuckey Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 25

28 DEBUSK ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Debusk Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Debusk Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Debusk Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 26

29 DOAK ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Doak Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Doak Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Doak Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 27

30 GLENWOOD ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Glenwood Elementary Grade PK NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Glenwood Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Glenwood Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 28

31 MCDONALD ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - McDonald Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - McDonald Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - McDonald Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 29

32 MOSHEIM ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Mosheim Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total 954 1,039 1,043 1,039 1,071 1,094 1,066 1, Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Mosheim Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Mosheim Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 30

33 NOLACHUCKEY ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Nolachuckey Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Nolachuckey Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Nolachuckey Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 31

34 NORTH GREENE HIGH SCHOOL Historical Enrollment - North Greene High School Grade Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - North Greene High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - North Greene High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - North Greene High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - North Greene High School Grand Total PAGE 32

35 OTTWAY ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - Ottway Elementary Grade PK NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Ottway Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Ottway Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 33

36 SOUTH GREENE HIGH SCHOOL Historical Enrollment - South Greene High School Grade Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - South Greene High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - South Greene High School Grand Total PAGE 34

37 WEST GREENE HIGH SCHOOL Historical Enrollment - West Greene High School Grade Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - West Greene High School Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - West Greene High School Grand Total PAGE 35

38 WEST PINES ELEMENTARY Historical Enrollment - West Pines Elementary Grade PK NA NA K Grand Total Source: Greene County Schools Projected Enrollment - Recommended - West Pines Elementary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - West Pines Elementary PK K Grand Total PAGE 36

39 CONCLUSION As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in elementary schools, open enrollment, non-public enrollment, in / out migration patterns, and any housing growth. It is recommended that this document be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent growth and enrollment trends will impact the enrollment projections. Cooperative Strategies is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed decisions about the future of Greene County Schools. PAGE 37