SOCIO-ECONOMIC and LAND USE DATA

Transcription

1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC and LAND USE DATA FUTURE CONDITIONS January CHATHAM URBAN TRANSPORTATION STUDY - 1 -

2 Table of Contents Introduction 3 TAZ - Municipality - Map Index Socio-economic and Land Use Data 13 Chart of Population Projections...33 TAZ Maps

3 Socio-economic and Land Use Data Projections Introduction Travel Demand forecasting is a tool used to support urban transportation planning. The basic unit of a travel demand model is the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ). The Census Bureau aggregated pertinent data from the 2000 Census into TAZs in Chatham County. The data aggregation is known as the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTTP). CTPP is a cooperative effort sponsored by the State Departments of Transportation under a pooled funding arrangement with the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). The 2000 Census data was updated to 2005 and projections were developed as described below. TABLE HEADINGS An explanation and discussion of the data included in this report is: TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone): Chatham County has been divided into approximately 600 Traffic Analysis Zones. The Zones are identified on the attached maps. Households: Households refer to occupied housing units. According to the 2000 Census, approximately 90 percent of the total housing units in Chatham County were occupied. The unoccupied 10 percent account for dwelling units for sale or rent and for units that have been permitted but are not yet occupied. The number of total housing units that could be developed in each TAZ was determined by determining the acreage of undeveloped, developable land in each TAZ and applying a density based upon existing density and anticipated future density. Historical density was less a predictor of future density in the 2005 MPC data than in the 2002 MPC data (see attached graph) because the number of units per acre had increased significantly between 2000 and Based upon gross developable acreage, the following densities were used to determine the number of units per acre: - 3 -

4 Density Units/acre Square feet/unit High sf/unit sf/unit sf/unit Medium sf/unit sf/unit sf/unit Low <5 >8000 sf/unit The highest density areas were areas in downtown Savannah (e.g. TAZ 333 at the northwest corner of Liberty and Drayton which has an existing density of 41.5 units per acre; TAZ 334 at the northeast corner of Liberty and Drayton which has an existing density of 78.3 units per acre). Examples of other areas with high but lesser densities are TAZ 1 and 2 along the beachfront at Tybee where current density is less than six units per acre. Based upon development trends, density of 20 units per acre is anticipated. Examples of existing medium density areas between 5 and 7 units per acre are in TAZ , the Pine Gardens and Twickingham neighborhoods; a higher medium density area is TAZ 114 on Victory Drive between Dowling Street and Remlers Corner Shopping Center on Skidaway where the existing density is 11.4 units per acre. Almost all of the residential subdivisions in the County have densities of less than 5 units per acre. Examples are Wilmington Island where existing density is 2 3 units per acre; the Landings at Skidaway (1.7 units/acre); the older subdivisions in the City of Pooler (2.6 units per acre). The average existing County-wide density is 2.7 units per acre; the average future County-wide density is 3.2 units per acre. This significant but reasonable increase in density is based upon anecdotal evidence regarding recent land and development costs and is reflected in development trends from Population: The 2000 Census reported the number of people and the occupied dwelling units in each TAZ. From this data, the persons per household in each TAZ was calculated. The population is the number of households in each TAZ multiplied by persons per household in that TAZ. The line on the attached graph identified as 2005 MPC assumes that the maximum anticipated population of Chatham County is 644, 300 and that this population will be reached in This is considered the most rapid growth rate that could reasonably be anticipated. The line on the attached graph identified as DOT Version is a more likely scenario based upon the 2005 MPC data adjusted on a TAZ by TAZ basis. Factors that influenced the adjustment - 4 -

5 were existing and planned development, desirability of the area, and availability of utilities and roads. The line is an extension of the growth between 2000 and The line on the attached graph identified as GA Tech Study refers to Georgia Coast : Population Projections for the 10 County Coastal Region by the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology. This study was funded by the Coastal Georgia Regional Development Center and includes only full-time permanent residents, and excludes second and vacation homes, and transient populations such as students and the military. The line on the attached graph identified as 2002 MPC assumes that the growth rate from 1960 through 2000 will remain relatively constant. This is the lower limit of growth that could be anticipated in the County. The actual growth will probably fall between the rate reflected by the 2002 MPC and the 2005 MPC lines on the attached graph. The DOT Version line is a reasonable representation of the growth that can be anticipated. Group Population: Group Population includes the populations of nursing homes, correctional institutions, homeless shelters, and similar institutions. The 2000 Group Population in Chatham County was less than two percent of the total population. This is well within the margin of error of the population projections. Because of the negligible effect of group populations on the transportation facilities, no attempt was made to anticipate the Group Population in the projections. Employment: Base Data The Census Bureau and the Georgia Department of Labor (DOL) produce employment figures. Neither figure reflects the total employment in a given Traffic Analysis Zone. The Census figures include only primary, full-time jobs. The Census estimates that its employment figures are approximately 10 percent below the actual total employment. The DOL includes only jobs that are covered by unemployment insurance laws. Independent contractors, part time workers, temporary service workers, and undocumented workers are therefore not included. The Census 2000 Employment data and DOL data were adjusted to develop the base employment figures for the 2000 model. Adjustments included known major employers, locations of major retail and service employment centers and warehouse facilities from which the number of employees per square foot for retail and service jobs was calculated and applied to smaller, similar establishments. The Census 2000 and DOL 2000 data was used as a guide, but the adjustments were based as much on local knowledge of commercial and industrial conditions as on published data

6 The accuracy of the adjustment methodology used by the MPC was verified when the CTPP Place of Work data was released in May The CTPP data is virtually identical to the MPC Place of Work data developed by the method described above: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN CHATHAM COUNTY Census 2000 Georgia Department of Labor 2000 MPC Socio-economic Data 2000 CTPP Place of Work Census , , , , Employment The 2005 Employment data was developed by the following method: a. The 2000 Base data was adjusted according to known major changes in the local economy and/or changes reflected in the Chatham County Tax Assessors land use codes. Examples are construction of Thermo King Warehouses (TAZ 550), construction of the Wal-Mart Shopping Center in Sandfly (TAZ 64), or closing the L Oreal Plant (TAZ 449). Employment was estimated according to existing employment in similar facilities. b. A ratio between the total population and the number of jobs in each employment category was established. This ratio produced targeted employment figures, based on the assumption that the ratio in 2000 would remain relatively constant in RATIO 0F ULATION TO EMPLOYMENT Year Population Total Employment Employment Service Employment Manufacturing Employment Warehouse Employment , ,721 29,085 76,316 16,920 5,400 Ratio Target 257, ,390 33,419 84,834 17,995 5, , ,821 36,568 84,778 12,316 8,159 The above table indicates that the ratio of total jobs to population is reasonably constant. However, there were more retail jobs created than would have been predicted by the ratio; the number of service jobs were relatively the same; the number of manufacturing jobs decreased significantly; and the number of warehouse jobs was significantly more than would have been predicted by the ratio. Because of the number of new major retail centers constructed between 2000 and 2005 (Walmarts in Sandfly and Pooler and Highway 17, Target-Bass Pro Shop at Savannah Mall, Kroger at Berwick) it is understandable that the number of retail jobs created exceeds the number that would be predicted by the ratio

7 The decrease in manufacturing jobs is verified by DOL figures which indicate that manufacturing jobs in Chatham County declined from 14,284 in 2001 to 11,376 in The DOL does not include jobs at the Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) as manufacturing but the MPC does. GPA employment was 860 in 2005 which if added to the DOL manufacturing figure of 11, 376 is 12,236, within 0.6 percent of the MPC total. Similarly, warehouse employment based upon the estimated employment at new warehouse facilities significantly exceeds warehouse employment predicted by the ratio. There is no known way to cross-check this data, but because of the number of new warehouses being constructed in Chatham County, it is reasonable to assume that the number of jobs would also increase. 3. Employment Employment was developed by identifying new areas that would likely be developed as employment centers and assigning employees to the centers according to anticipated size and nature of the developments. These figures were added to the 2005 employment for each TAZ. Target employment was based on the ratio for the various employment classifications in Although it is likely that some adjustments in the employment classifications will occur in the next 25 years, the total employment will probably remain the same. No attempt was made to predict probable changes in the employment mix. Year Population Total Employment Employment Service Employment Manufacturing Employment Warehouse Employment , ,721 29,085 76,316 16,920 5,400 Ratio Target 141,390 33,419 84,834 17,995 5, , ,821 36,568 84,778 12,316 8,159 Ratio Target 193,338 49, ,003 17,576 10, , ,935 49, ,957 17,666 10, Data: The Kindergarten thru 12 th Grade (K-12) school population is based upon data published by School Tree, a service that includes the enrollment of public and private schools in Chatham County. Enrollment data was verified by total enrollment figures published by the Savannah-Chatham County Board of Education and by spot checks of larger private schools. Enrollment in tertiary educational facilities is from enrollment data from each institution. The enrollment of students at the Savannah College of Art and Design was distributed among the TAZ s where SCAD classrooms and dormitories are located in downtown Savannah. Data: A ratio between K-12 public school students, private school students, and tertiary school students was established. New K-12 schools were located in rapid growth areas in West - 7 -

8 Chatham County with larger public schools and smaller private schools. Existing campuses for tertiary schools were considered adequate to accommodate the additional students

9 Socio-economic Data TAZ-Municipality-Map Index Muni Code Municipality 1 Unincorporated Chatham County 2 City of Savannah 3 Town of Thunderbolt 4 City of Tybee Island 5 City of Pooler 6 City of Garden City 7 City of Bloomingdale 8 Vernonburg

10 TAZ - MAP INDEX TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map

11 TAZ - MAP INDEX TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map reserved reserved

12 TAZ - MAP INDEX TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map

13 TAZ - MAP INDEX TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map TAZ Muni Map

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33 TOTAL 161, , , ,957 17, ,

34 ULATION PROJECTIONS ULATION 470, , , , , MPC 2005 MPC DOT Version Ga Tech Study 220, YEAR

35 2005 Socio-economic and Land Use Data Maps