DRAFT. Enrollment Projections Report. February 12, 2016

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1 February 12, Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, Ohio P: f:

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3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 2 Executive Summary... 3 Enrollment Projection Methodology... 4 U.S. Census... 7 General Demographics... 8 Housing Data Live Birth Data Survival Ratios Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment Historical & Projected Enrollment by School Enrollment by School Conclusion /12/2016 1

4 Acknowledgements On behalf of DeJONG-RICHTER, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Boise School District for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Boise School District for years to come. DeJONG-RICHTER Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services 3325 Hililard Rome Road Hilliard, Ohio P /12/2016 2

5 Executive Summary The enrollment projections for the Boise School District included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and DeJONG-RICHTER s custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience DeJONG- RICHTER has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed by analyzing the following data: Live birth data Historical enrollment by school, by grade Census data Building permits The Boise School District enrollment has increased by 818 students since the school year. Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to decrease over the next ten years. As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Boise School District. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development. 35,000 30,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Boise School District 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High 2/12/2016 3

6 Enrollment Projection Methodology Introduction Tracing the landscape of the country s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report U.S. Population - Live Birth Rate per 1,000 Population 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Nationwide, districts have experienced the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live birth rate increased for the first time in several years in 1998 and increased again in However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 12.5 (per 1,000) in 2013 (preliminary). When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment: Boom U.S. Total Live Births Bust Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report Echo Boom Echo Bust Boundary adjustments New school openings Changes/additions in program offerings Preschool programs Change in grade configuration Interest rates/unemployment shifts Magnet/Charter/Private school opening or closure Zoning changes Unplanned new housing activity Planned, but not built, housing School voucher programs 2/12/2016 4

7 Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections. When looking ahead at a school district s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures? The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Boise School District were developed using the cohort survival method. 2/12/2016 5

8 Cohort Survival Method A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on. A survival ratio is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge and can be folded into projections by using the survival ratio as a multiplier. For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments. The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily, or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and housing patterns from year to year. 100 Kindergarteners TIME 105 1st Graders 110 2nd Graders 2/12/2016 6

9 U.S. Census According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Boise city, Idaho increased from 185,787 to 205,671, or approximately 11 percent, between the 2000 and 2010 Census. In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population decreased by 180, or 0.45 percent. The under age 5 population increased from 13,116 to 13,155, or 0.3 percent. The median age of a Boise city, Idaho resident is 35.3, an increase of 2.5 years since the 2000 Census. The average household size remained relatively the same from 2.44 to The average family size has also remained relatively the same from 3.03 to The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of occupied and vacant housing units. The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data. Boise city, Idaho U.S. Census Subject Total population 185, ,671 SEX AND AGE Male 92, ,690 Female 93, ,981 Under 5 years 13,116 13,155 5 to 19 years 39,822 39, to 64 years 114, , years and over 18,612 22,953 Median age (years) RACE One Race 97.6% 97.0% White 92.2% 89.0% Black or African American 0.8% 1.5% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.7% 0.7% Asian 2.1% 3.2% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.8% Some Other Race 1.7% 2.5% Two or More Races 2.4% 3.0% Hispanic or Latino 4.5% 7.1% DEMOGRAPHICS Average household size Average family size HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 77,850 92,700 Occupied housing units 74,438 85,704 Vacant housing units 3,412 6,996 Source: U.S. Census 2/12/2016 7

10 General Demographics The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time. According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Ada County, Idaho is projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to increase by 5,146 children. 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Ada County Population Estimates Age Ages ,322 18,896 Ages ,884 12,864 Ages ,460 38,268 Ages ,732 19,424 Ages ,917 31,563 Ages ,109 89,255 Total Population 423, ,522 Source: ESRI BIS Ada County Population Estimates Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages Ages /12/2016 8

11 Enrollment Projections Report Boise School District Area Estimated School Aged Population Growth The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within/around the Boise School District boundary. Population changes are based on 2015 and 2020 estimates. DR A FT A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, a statistical division of a census tract, generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data. 2/12/2016 9

12 Housing Data Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in Boise City since Boise City # of building permits issued year single-family multi-family * Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary 2/12/

13 Live Birth Data Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District. In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years earlier. The survival ratios for birth-tokindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on the following page of this report. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Boise but delivers her baby in Nampa, the birth is counted in Boise. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. The chart and graph includes the live birth counts for Ada County and Boise City. Live birth counts for Ada County were used for projection purposes. Live Birth Counts Year Ada County Boise City , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, Vital Statistics Annual Report 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Live Birth Counts Ada County Live Birth Counts Boise City 2/12/

14 Survival Ratios The chart below demonstrates the seven-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the school year were present in 2nd grade for the school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent. Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual number. The following tables illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Boise School District, based on enrollment by school, over the past seven years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to to to % % 38.16% 99.90% 98.66% 98.34% % % 99.51% 98.30% % 98.85% 97.89% % % % 36.69% % 99.28% 99.32% % 98.29% 99.02% % % 99.40% 97.77% 98.81% % % 34.19% 99.45% % 98.86% 99.95% 99.63% % % % % % 97.30% % % 34.43% % % % % % % % % % 98.46% % % % 35.35% 99.40% % 99.90% 98.27% 98.39% 99.48% % % % 98.59% 98.91% % % 36.41% 99.16% % 97.68% % 98.58% % 99.31% % 98.91% 96.49% 97.30% mean simple all years 33.48% % 35.88% % % 99.29% % 99.25% % % % % 98.22% 98.99% std. dev. simple all years 0.85% 1.68% 1.51% 1.01% 1.63% 1.39% 1.02% 0.97% 1.28% 1.65% 1.61% 1.26% 1.19% 1.62% mean simple 5 years 33.38% % 35.42% % % 99.48% % 99.10% % % % % 98.28% 98.50% std. dev. simple 5 years 0.91% 1.86% 1.13% 1.12% 1.39% 1.46% 1.13% 0.99% 1.36% 1.34% 1.10% 1.21% 1.32% 1.23% mean simple 3 years 33.98% % 35.40% % % 99.75% % 99.18% % % % % 97.85% 98.80% std. dev. simple 3 years 0.22% 1.56% 0.99% 1.25% 1.23% 1.99% 1.57% 1.21% 1.26% 1.53% 0.91% 1.51% 1.18% 1.45% mean simple 2 years 34.07% % 35.88% 99.28% % 98.79% 99.48% 98.49% 99.87% % % % 97.54% 98.10% std. dev. simple 2 years 0.24% 1.27% 0.75% 0.17% 1.50% 1.57% 1.71% 0.13% 0.56% 2.09% 0.70% 1.86% 1.49% 1.14% mean weighted all years 33.79% % 35.75% 99.67% % 98.98% % 98.92% % % % % 97.66% 98.27% std. dev. weighted all years 0.64% 1.36% 1.01% 0.91% 1.23% 1.56% 1.20% 0.84% 1.00% 1.49% 0.99% 1.36% 1.30% 1.29% mean weighted 5 years 33.84% % 35.78% 99.57% % 98.84% % 98.83% % % % % 97.50% 98.10% std. dev. weighted 5 years 0.57% 1.29% 0.90% 0.87% 1.12% 1.57% 1.22% 0.79% 0.93% 1.49% 0.84% 1.40% 1.30% 1.17% mean weighted 3 years 33.96% % 36.15% 99.29% % 98.23% % 98.63% % 99.92% % 99.48% 96.93% 97.69% std. dev. weighted 3 years 0.16% 0.92% 0.65% 0.54% 0.99% 1.34% 1.15% 0.49% 0.57% 1.42% 0.60% 1.32% 1.05% 0.97% mean weighted 2 years 33.92% % 36.36% 99.17% % 97.79% % 98.57% % 99.46% % 99.04% 96.59% 97.38% std. dev. weighted 2 years 0.10% 0.54% 0.32% 0.07% 0.64% 0.67% 0.73% 0.06% 0.24% 0.89% 0.30% 0.79% 0.63% 0.48% 2/12/

15 Boise School District Historical Enrollment As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Boise School District has increased by 818 students, or 3 percent. The enrollment count for the current school year is 25,591 students. Historical Enrollment - District-wide PK K 1,825 1,833 1,849 1,865 1,841 1,879 1,851 1,929 1,745 1, ,861 1,895 1,852 1,943 1,988 1,987 1,949 1,993 1,961 1, ,924 1,842 1,914 1,936 1,941 2,014 1,976 1,977 1,919 2, ,789 1,908 1,830 1,933 1,910 1,927 2,048 2,024 1,933 2, ,764 1,797 1,898 1,863 1,901 1,897 1,905 2,082 1,973 1, ,795 1,785 1,800 1,931 1,870 1,911 1,896 1,928 1,996 2, ,815 1,763 1,739 1,830 1,932 1,838 1,904 1,907 1,852 2, ,845 1,906 1,848 1,828 1,821 1,913 1,873 1,941 1,897 1, ,929 1,810 1,876 1,824 1,797 1,862 1,913 1,901 1,985 1, ,065 2,100 1,919 1,994 1,999 1,937 1,960 2,019 2,022 2, ,050 1,983 2,035 1,896 1,971 1,987 1,951 1,990 2,050 2, ,060 1,910 1,939 1,953 1,856 1,927 1,989 1,921 1,962 1, ,812 1,950 1,904 1,945 1,981 1,834 1,875 1,993 1,900 1,909 Grand Total 24,773 24,721 24,591 24,898 24,937 25,035 25,255 25,768 25,328 25,591 Historical Enrollment - District-wide PK K ,773 12,823 12,882 13,301 13,383 13,453 13,529 13,840 13,379 13, ,839 5,816 5,643 5,646 5,617 5,712 5,746 5,861 5,904 5, ,922 5,843 5,878 5,794 5,808 5,748 5,815 5,904 5,912 5,887 Grand Total 24,773 24,721 24,591 24,898 24,937 25,035 25,255 25,768 25,328 25,591 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Historical Enrollment - District-wide 2/12/

16 Projected Enrollment DeJONG-RICHTER developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the Boise School District. The low projection illustrates a conservative approach reflecting an economy that may have higher inflation/interest rates, a decline in new housing, and/or a decline in live births. The high projection takes a more liberal approach and reflects an economy that may have lower inflation/ interest rates, a high level of new housing, and/or an increase in live births. The moderate falls in between these two approaches. The recommended projection illustrates the most likely direction of the District/school based on more recent trends in the District/school. 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Boise School District 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High 2/12/

17 Boise School District Projected Enrollment Recommended Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Boise School District is projected to decrease from 25,591 in to 24,417 in Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K 1,745 1,717 1,682 1,708 1,708 1,705 1,705 1,707 1,707 1, ,803 1,844 1,822 1,783 1,805 1,803 1,803 1,803 1,803 1, ,909 1,805 1,843 1,815 1,784 1,805 1,805 1,803 1,802 1, ,031 1,939 1,835 1,875 1,845 1,807 1,839 1,835 1,832 1, ,013 2,021 1,927 1,823 1,861 1,836 1,797 1,825 1,823 1, ,955 2,035 2,038 1,947 1,838 1,878 1,852 1,812 1,840 1, ,013 1,932 2,011 2,013 1,929 1,819 1,860 1,836 1,798 1, ,006 1,998 1,924 2,004 2,001 1,921 1,811 1,850 1,824 1, ,911 2,014 2,008 1,934 2,013 2,010 1,930 1,820 1,858 1, ,993 2,025 2,136 2,131 2,051 2,137 2,128 2,049 1,931 1, ,148 2,004 2,034 2,147 2,140 2,062 2,147 2,137 2,058 1, ,966 2,108 1,966 2,002 2,112 2,107 2,028 2,113 2,101 2, ,981 1,953 2,095 1,955 1,989 2,100 2,095 2,016 2,101 2,090 Grand Total 25,624 25,545 25,471 25,287 25,226 25,140 24,950 24,756 24,628 24,417 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K ,469 13,293 13,158 12,964 12,770 12,653 12,661 12,621 12,605 12, ,910 6,037 6,068 6,069 6,065 6,068 5,869 5,719 5,613 5, ,095 6,065 6,095 6,104 6,241 6,269 6,270 6,266 6,260 6,053 Grand Total 25,624 25,545 25,471 25,287 25,226 25,140 24,950 24,756 24,628 24,417 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide 2/12/

18 Boise School District Projected Enrollment Moderate Based on the moderate projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Boise School District is projected to decrease from 25,591 in to 24,707 in Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K 1,745 1,718 1,685 1,710 1,710 1,707 1,707 1,709 1,709 1, ,802 1,843 1,820 1,780 1,804 1,802 1,802 1,802 1,802 1, ,909 1,807 1,842 1,814 1,783 1,808 1,807 1,802 1,801 1, ,040 1,950 1,844 1,883 1,853 1,817 1,847 1,844 1,842 1, ,012 2,029 1,936 1,830 1,870 1,842 1,809 1,833 1,830 1, ,952 2,031 2,041 1,954 1,847 1,885 1,855 1,819 1,849 1, ,020 1,939 2,014 2,028 1,948 1,837 1,871 1,847 1,808 1, ,024 2,022 1,947 2,028 2,033 1,958 1,842 1,882 1,857 1, ,921 2,042 2,042 1,966 2,043 2,050 1,975 1,860 1,899 1, ,998 2,042 2,172 2,171 2,089 2,172 2,175 2,098 1,974 2, ,148 2,009 2,053 2,183 2,183 2,099 2,183 2,183 2,109 1, ,962 2,104 1,968 2,017 2,145 2,144 2,061 2,144 2,142 2, ,978 1,949 2,091 1,956 2,003 2,132 2,132 2,049 2,131 2,128 Grand Total 25,661 25,635 25,605 25,470 25,461 25,403 25,216 25,022 24,903 24,707 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K ,480 13,317 13,182 12,999 12,815 12,698 12,698 12,656 12,641 12, ,943 6,106 6,161 6,165 6,165 6,180 5,992 5,840 5,730 5, ,088 6,062 6,112 6,156 6,331 6,375 6,376 6,376 6,382 6,182 Grand Total 25,661 25,635 25,605 25,470 25,461 25,403 25,216 25,022 24,903 24,707 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide 2/12/

19 Boise School District Projected Enrollment Low Based on the low projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Boise School District is projected to decrease from 25,591 in to 20,653 in Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide PK K 1,656 1,638 1,602 1,623 1,623 1,619 1,619 1,621 1,621 1, ,735 1,772 1,748 1,712 1,736 1,735 1,733 1,733 1,734 1, ,844 1,673 1,714 1,687 1,655 1,677 1,673 1,669 1,669 1, ,972 1,822 1,655 1,688 1,666 1,633 1,657 1,655 1,652 1, ,945 1,894 1,753 1,587 1,622 1,598 1,569 1,591 1,587 1, ,890 1,896 1,846 1,710 1,552 1,583 1,559 1,529 1,553 1, ,955 1,820 1,827 1,774 1,654 1,492 1,528 1,505 1,472 1, ,961 1,900 1,773 1,783 1,730 1,612 1,458 1,490 1,468 1, ,885 1,944 1,883 1,758 1,767 1,713 1,600 1,446 1,477 1, ,959 1,961 2,024 1,961 1,830 1,835 1,780 1,666 1,504 1, ,114 1,939 1,942 2,004 1,940 1,811 1,817 1,759 1,647 1, ,931 2,039 1,872 1,880 1,940 1,880 1,753 1,759 1,702 1, ,955 1,904 2,010 1,844 1,856 1,913 1,854 1,729 1,736 1,679 Grand Total 24,952 24,352 23,799 23,161 22,721 22,251 21,750 21,302 20,972 20,653 Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide PK K ,997 12,515 12,145 11,781 11,508 11,337 11,338 11,303 11,288 11, ,805 5,805 5,680 5,502 5,327 5,160 4,838 4,602 4,449 4, ,000 5,882 5,824 5,728 5,736 5,604 5,424 5,247 5,085 4,761 Grand Total 24,952 24,352 23,799 23,161 22,721 22,251 21,750 21,302 20,972 20,653 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide 2/12/

20 Boise School District Projected Enrollment High Based on the high projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Boise School District is projected to increase from 25,591 in to 29,670 in Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K 1,827 1,801 1,764 1,788 1,786 1,785 1,785 1,785 1,785 1, ,876 1,916 1,892 1,853 1,878 1,876 1,872 1,872 1,872 1, ,972 1,937 1,980 1,953 1,913 1,941 1,937 1,934 1,934 1, ,107 2,076 2,046 2,091 2,059 2,020 2,047 2,046 2,043 2, ,080 2,165 2,141 2,102 2,149 2,118 2,078 2,106 2,103 2, ,014 2,168 2,253 2,228 2,189 2,233 2,202 2,158 2,193 2, ,085 2,063 2,222 2,313 2,294 2,250 2,299 2,264 2,221 2, ,082 2,150 2,132 2,298 2,387 2,372 2,325 2,372 2,341 2, ,958 2,141 2,208 2,191 2,359 2,444 2,434 2,383 2,435 2, ,040 2,123 2,324 2,399 2,377 2,560 2,650 2,640 2,585 2, ,183 2,080 2,167 2,373 2,446 2,424 2,612 2,700 2,692 2, ,995 2,171 2,069 2,161 2,367 2,438 2,415 2,601 2,687 2, ,002 1,995 2,172 2,070 2,162 2,369 2,441 2,419 2,604 2,690 Grand Total 26,371 26,936 27,520 27,970 28,516 28,980 29,247 29,430 29,645 29,670 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K ,961 14,126 14,298 14,328 14,268 14,223 14,220 14,165 14,151 14, ,080 6,414 6,664 6,888 7,123 7,376 7,409 7,395 7,361 7, ,180 6,246 6,408 6,604 6,975 7,231 7,468 7,720 7,983 8,009 Grand Total 26,371 26,936 27,520 27,970 28,516 28,980 29,247 29,430 29,645 29,670 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide 2/12/

21 Boise School District Historical & Projected Enrollment by School The following tables illustrate historical and projected enrollment for each school in the District. Historical Enrollment by School School ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,341 1,375 1,453 1,447 1,438 1,453 1,431 1,472 1,468 1,566 BORAH SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,551 1,481 1,339 1,331 1,379 1,450 1,512 1,492 1,582 1,514 CAPITAL SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,564 1,525 1,412 1,387 1,354 1,321 1,383 1,390 1,339 1,321 COLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL COLLISTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CYNTHIA MANN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EAST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FAIRMONT JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FORT BOISE MID HIGH (ALT) FRANK CHURCH HIGH (ALTERN) FRANKLIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GARFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRACE JORDAN ELEMENTARY HAWTHORNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIDDEN SPRINGS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLCREST ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLSIDE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL HORIZON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JACKSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KOELSCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LANGUAGE ACADEMY LES BOIS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LIBERTY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LONGFELLOW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LOWELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MAPLE GROVE ELEMENTARY SCH MARIAN PRITCHETT MEMORIAL SCH MC KINLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MONROE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MORLEY NELSON ELEMENTARY MOUNTAIN COVE (ALT.) HIGH MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCH NORTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL OWYHEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PIERCE PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RIVERGLEN JR HIGH SCHOOL RIVERSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHADOW HILLS ELEMENTARY SOUTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL 1,012 1,022 1,118 1,116 1,146 1,109 1,135 1,121 1,121 1,126 TRAIL WIND ELEMENTARY VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WASHINGTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WEST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL WHITE PINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITNEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITTIER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT ELEMENTARY Grand Total 24,773 24,721 24,591 24,898 24,937 25,035 25,255 25,768 25,705 25,591 2/12/

22 Projected Enrollment by School - Recommended School ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,593 1,577 1,597 1,657 1,756 1,746 1,748 1,697 1,700 1,632 BORAH SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,488 1,416 1,396 1,379 1,368 1,365 1,348 1,371 1,356 1,317 CAPITAL SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,396 1,404 1,362 1,290 1,281 1,292 1,315 1,321 1,318 1,266 COLLISTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CYNTHIA MANN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EAST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FAIRMONT JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FRANK CHURCH HIGH (ALTERN) GARFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRACE JORDAN ELEMENTARY HAWTHORNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIDDEN SPRINGS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLCREST ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLSIDE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL HORIZON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KOELSCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LES BOIS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LIBERTY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LONGFELLOW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LOWELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MAPLE GROVE ELEMENTARY SCH MONROE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MORLEY NELSON ELEMENTARY MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCH NORTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL 934 1,021 1,030 1,061 1,022 1,057 1,007 1, OWYHEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PIERCE PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RIVERGLEN JR HIGH SCHOOL RIVERSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHADOW HILLS ELEMENTARY SOUTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL 1,202 1,251 1,319 1,360 1,409 1,433 1,427 1,448 1,454 1,418 TRAIL WIND ELEMENTARY VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WASHINGTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WEST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL WHITE PINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITNEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITTIER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT ELEMENTARY Grand Total 25,624 25,545 25,471 25,287 25,226 25,140 24,950 24,756 24,628 24,417 2/12/

23 Projected Enrollment by School - Moderate School ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,593 1,583 1,618 1,698 1,805 1,792 1,777 1,713 1,714 1,648 BORAH SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,488 1,415 1,394 1,375 1,373 1,379 1,372 1,399 1,385 1,341 CAPITAL SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,396 1,404 1,366 1,306 1,310 1,328 1,354 1,368 1,379 1,337 COLLISTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CYNTHIA MANN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EAST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FAIRMONT JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FRANK CHURCH HIGH (ALTERN) GARFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRACE JORDAN ELEMENTARY HAWTHORNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIDDEN SPRINGS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLCREST ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLSIDE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL HORIZON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KOELSCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LES BOIS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LIBERTY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LONGFELLOW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LOWELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MAPLE GROVE ELEMENTARY SCH MONROE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MORLEY NELSON ELEMENTARY MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCH NORTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL 939 1,031 1,045 1,070 1,026 1,059 1,008 1, OWYHEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PIERCE PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RIVERGLEN JR HIGH SCHOOL RIVERSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHADOW HILLS ELEMENTARY SOUTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL 1,202 1,251 1,319 1,363 1,417 1,444 1,441 1,466 1,472 1,435 TRAIL WIND ELEMENTARY VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WASHINGTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WEST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL WHITE PINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITNEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITTIER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT ELEMENTARY Grand Total 25,661 25,635 25,605 25,470 25,461 25,403 25,216 25,022 24,903 24,707 2/12/

24 Projected Enrollment by School - Low School ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,583 1,548 1,548 1,576 1,631 1,567 1,503 1,404 1,361 1,263 BORAH SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,459 1,363 1,318 1,281 1,251 1,224 1,179 1,163 1,112 1,042 CAPITAL SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,383 1,373 1,315 1,223 1,180 1,145 1,114 1,071 1, COLLISTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CYNTHIA MANN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EAST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FAIRMONT JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FRANK CHURCH HIGH (ALTERN) GARFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRACE JORDAN ELEMENTARY HAWTHORNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIDDEN SPRINGS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLCREST ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLSIDE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL HORIZON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KOELSCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LES BOIS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LIBERTY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LONGFELLOW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LOWELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MAPLE GROVE ELEMENTARY SCH MONROE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MORLEY NELSON ELEMENTARY MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCH NORTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL OWYHEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PIERCE PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RIVERGLEN JR HIGH SCHOOL RIVERSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHADOW HILLS ELEMENTARY SOUTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL 1,187 1,218 1,263 1,278 1,304 1,303 1,275 1,270 1,246 1,180 TRAIL WIND ELEMENTARY VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WASHINGTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WEST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL WHITE PINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITNEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITTIER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT ELEMENTARY Grand Total 24,952 24,352 23,799 23,161 22,721 22,251 21,750 21,302 20,972 20,653 2/12/

25 Projected Enrollment by School - High School ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,605 1,620 1,688 1,826 1,996 2,044 2,093 2,080 2,145 2,137 BORAH SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,519 1,467 1,472 1,473 1,504 1,548 1,591 1,677 1,717 1,721 CAPITAL SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL 1,408 1,435 1,417 1,392 1,450 1,533 1,635 1,737 1,828 1,846 COLLISTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CYNTHIA MANN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL EAST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL FAIRMONT JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL ,036 1,104 1,141 1,132 1,132 1,128 FRANK CHURCH HIGH (ALTERN) GARFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GRACE JORDAN ELEMENTARY HAWTHORNE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIDDEN SPRINGS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLCREST ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HILLSIDE JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL HORIZON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL JEFFERSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL KOELSCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LES BOIS JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL LIBERTY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LONGFELLOW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL LOWELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MAPLE GROVE ELEMENTARY SCH MONROE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL MORLEY NELSON ELEMENTARY MOUNTAIN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCH NORTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL 960 1,078 1,123 1,192 1,178 1,254 1,234 1,272 1,253 1,249 OWYHEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PIERCE PARK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL RIVERGLEN JR HIGH SCHOOL RIVERSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ROOSEVELT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHADOW HILLS ELEMENTARY SOUTH JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL TIMBERLINE HIGH SCHOOL 1,217 1,285 1,378 1,451 1,538 1,597 1,624 1,686 1,732 1,740 TRAIL WIND ELEMENTARY VALLEY VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WASHINGTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WEST JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL WHITE PINE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITNEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WHITTIER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT ELEMENTARY Grand Total 26,371 26,936 27,520 27,970 28,516 28,980 29,247 29,430 29,645 29,670 2/12/

26 Enrollment by School The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by school. Adams Elementary School Amity Elementary School Boise Senior High School Borah Senior High School Capital Senior High School Cole Elementary School Collister Elementary School Cynthia Mann Elementary School East Junior High School Fairmont Junior High School Fort Boise Mid High (Alt.) Frank Church High (Altern.) Franklin Elementary School Garfield Elementary School Grace Jordan Elementary School Hawthorne Elementary School Hidden Springs Elementary School Highlands Elementary School Hillcrest Elementary School Hillside Junior High School Horizon Elementary School Jackson Elementary School Jefferson Elementary School Koelsch Elementary School Language Academy Les Bois Junior High School Liberty Elementary School Longfellow Elementary School Lowell Elementary School Maple Grove Elementary School Marian Pritchett Memorial School McKinley Elementary School Monroe Elementary School Morley Nelson Elementary Mountain Cove (Alt.) High Mountain View Elementary School North Junior High School Owyhee Elementary School Pierce Park Elementary School Riverglen Junior High School Riverside Elementary School Roosevelt Elementary School Shadow Hills Elementary School South Junior High School Timberline High School Trail Wind Elementary School Valley View Elementary School Washington Elementary School West Junior High School White Pine Elementary School Whitney Elementary School Whittier Elementary School William Howard Taft Elementary School /12/

27 Adams Elementary School Historical Enrollment - ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK NA 3 4 NA NA NA 1 NA 1 2 K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Recommended - ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - ADAMS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total /12/

28 Amity Elementary School Historical Enrollment - AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK NA NA NA NA NA K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Recommended - AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - AMITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PK K Grand Total /12/

29 Boise Senior High School Historical Enrollment - BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL Grand Total 1,341 1,375 1,453 1,447 1,438 1,453 1,431 1,472 1,468 1,566 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL Grand Total 1,593 1,577 1,597 1,657 1,756 1,746 1,748 1,697 1,700 1,632 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL Grand Total 1,593 1,583 1,618 1,698 1,805 1,792 1,777 1,713 1,714 1,648 Projected Enrollment - Low - BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL Grand Total 1,583 1,548 1,548 1,576 1,631 1,567 1,503 1,404 1,361 1,263 Projected Enrollment - High - BOISE SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL Grand Total 1,605 1,620 1,688 1,826 1,996 2,044 2,093 2,080 2,145 2,137 2/12/

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