WORTHINGTON SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS REPORT FEBRUARY 14, 2018

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1 FEBRUARY 14, 2018 PREPARED FOR: Worthington Schools 200 E. Wilson Bridge Rd. Worthington, OH T PREPARED BY: Cooperative Strategies 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH T

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3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 2 Executive Summary... 3 Comparison... 5 Enrollment Projection Methodology U.S. Census General Demographics Estimated School Aged Population Growth Housing Data Resident Live Birth Data Survival Ratios Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment Enrollment by Boundary Conclusion... 90

4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS On behalf of Cooperative Strategies, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Worthington Schools for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Worthington Schools for years to come. COOPERATIVE STRATEGIES Tracy Richter, President, Partner Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services Lee Hwang, GISP, REFP, GIS Director 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH P PAGE 2

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The enrollment projections for the Worthington Schools included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and Cooperative Strategies custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience Cooperative Strategies has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. The Worthington Schools is a suburban school district located outside of Columbus, Ohio. There are 1 PK school, 11 elementary schools, 3 middle schools, and 2 high schools, and 2 alternative schools serving over 9,000 students. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed using the cohort survival methodology and by analyzing the following data outlined in this report: Live birth data Historical enrollment by elementary boundary, by grade Census data Building permits Enrollment projections by grade were developed based on students living within the current elementary boundaries. Enrollment in the Worthington Schools has increased by 930 PK-12 students since the school year (not including unmatched or out-of-district students). Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to increase over the next ten years. 14,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment -Worthington Schools 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High PAGE 3

6 As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Worthington Schools. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development. PAGE 4

7 COMPARISON Enrollment projections were provided to the Worthington Schools in January The following tables illustrate the comparison of actual versus projected enrollment for the school year. Overall, the District-wide projected enrollment had an accuracy rate of 99.39% for grades PK-12 and 98.93% for grades K-12. Amongst the K-12 population, the most significant difference was at the 2nd grade level with a difference of 34 students from actual enrollment, or 4.66 percent. Brookside was the boundary with the greatest difference between actual and projected K-12 enrollment with 32 students, or 5.48 percent, fewer students than projected. DISTRICT-WIDE COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total 10,026 10, % K-12 Total 9,738 9, % PAGE 5

8 COMPARISON BY BOUNDARY (K-12) Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) Bluffsview Boundary % Brookside Boundary % Colonial Hills Boundary % Evening Street Boundary 1,058 1, % Granby Boundary % Liberty Boundary % Slate Hill Boundary % Wilson Hill Boundary % Worthington Estates Boundary 1,129 1, % Worthington Hills Boundary % Worthington Park Boundary % K-12 Total 9,738 9, % BLUFFSVIEW BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % PAGE 6

9 BROOKSIDE BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % COLONIAL HILLS BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % PAGE 7

10 EVENING STREET BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total 1,072 1, % K-12 Total 1,058 1, % GRANBY BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % PAGE 8

11 LIBERTY BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % SLATE HILL BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % PAGE 9

12 WILSON HILL BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % WORTHINGTON ESTATES BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total 1,157 1, % K-12 Total 1,129 1, % PAGE 10

13 WORTHINGTON HILLS BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % WORTHINGTON PARK BOUNDARY COMPARISON Actual EP Difference % Difference (Absolute) PK % K % % % % % % % % % % % % % Grand Total % K-12 Total % PAGE 11

14 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction Tracing the landscape of the country s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s U.S. POPULATION - LIVE BIRTH RATE PER 1,000 POPULATION Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Boom Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report U.S. TOTAL LIVE BIRTHS Bust Echo Boom Nationwide, districts have experienced the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live birth rate increased for the first time in several years in 1998 and increased again in However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 12.4 (per 1,000) in Echo Bust When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment: PAGE 12

15 Boundary adjustments New school openings Changes / additions in program offerings Preschool programs Change in grade configuration Interest rates / unemployment shifts Intra- and inter-district transfer Magnet / charter / private school opening or closure Zoning changes Unplanned new housing activity Planned, but not built, housing School voucher programs School closures Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections. When looking ahead at a school district s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures? The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Worthington Schools were developed using the cohort survival method. PAGE 13

16 Cohort Survival Method The cohort survival methodology (sometimes referred to as the grade progression ratio method) is a widely used enrollment projection model that is used by many school districts and state and federal agencies to project K-12 enrollment. A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on. A survival ratio is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge. A projection ratio for each grade transition is developed based on analysis of the survival ratios. The projections are used as a multiplier in determining future enrollment. For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, resident live birth counts are used to develop a birth-to-kindergarten survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments. The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily, or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and housing patterns from year to year. The cohort survival methodology inherently considers the net effects of factors such as migration, housing, dropouts, transfers to and from charter schools, open enrollment, and deaths. This methodology does not assume changes in policies, program offerings, or future changes in housing and migration patterns. PAGE 14

17 U.S. CENSUS According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Worthington, Ohio decreased from 14,125 to 13,575, or approximately 4 percent, between the 2000 and 2010 Census. In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population decreased by 385, or 13 percent. The under age 5 population increased from 752 to 840, or 12 percent. The median age of a Worthington, Ohio resident is 44.9, an increase of 1.0 year since the 2000 Census. The average household size decreased from 2.42 to The average family size increased from 2.92 to The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of vacant housing units. The number of occupied housing units remained relatively flat. The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data. WORTHINGTON CITY, OHIO U.S. CENSUS Subject Total population 14,125 13,575 SEX AND AGE Male 6,619 6,402 Female 7,506 7,173 Under 5 years to 19 years 2,914 2, to 64 years 7,857 7, years and over 2,602 2,591 Median age (years) RACE One Race 98.8% 98.0% White 94.0% 93.0% Black or African American 1.7% 2.2% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.1% 0.0% Asian 2.8% 2.3% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% Some Other Race 0.2% 0.5% Two or More Races 1.2% 2.0% Hispanic or Latino 1.0% 1.7% DEMOGRAPHICS Average household size Average family size HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 5,845 5,940 Occupied housing units 5,692 5,691 Vacant housing units Source: U.S. Census PAGE 15

18 GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time. According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Franklin County, Ohio is projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table below, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to increase by 8,310 children, or approximately 4 percent. 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Age Ages ,571 54,071 Ages ,159 34,641 Ages ,966 99,937 Ages ,240 49,579 Ages ,967 81,967 Ages , ,483 Total Population 1,283,688 1,360,490 Source: ESRI BIS FRANKLIN COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES FRANKLIN COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES 0 Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages Ages PAGE 16

19 ESTIMATED SCHOOL AGED POPULATION GROWTH The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within / around the Worthington Schools boundary. Population changes are based on 2017 and 2022 estimates. A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, a statistical division of a census tract, generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data. PAGE 17

20 HOUSING DATA Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in Worthington since BUILDING PERMITS WORTHINGTON, OH Year Single-Family Multi-Family * 5 0 Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary PAGE 18

21 RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH DATA Utilization of resident live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District. In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on the following page of this report. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Worthington but delivers her baby in Cleveland, the birth is counted in Worthington. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. The table illustrates live birth counts for zip codes 43016, 43065, 43081, 43085, 43214, 43229, and Based on an analysis of student population and elementary boundaries, only live birth counts for zip codes 43016, 43065, 43081, 43085, 43229, and were used for projection purposes. Resident Live Birth Counts by Zip Code Year , * Source: Ohio Department of Health *preliminary PAGE 19

22 The map on the following page illustrates the elementary boundaries and the zip codes within the Worthington Schools. Based on an analysis of student population and elementary boundaries, zip code was used to project kindergarten enrollment for the Granby boundary; zip code was used for the Liberty boundary; zip code was used for the Slate Hill, Worthington Estates, and Worthington Park boundaries; zip code was used for the Colonial Hills, Evening Street, Slate Hill, Wilson Hill, and Worthington Estates boundaries; zip code was used for the Colonial Hills and Wilson Hill boundaries; and zip code was used for the Bluffsview, Brookside, Granby, Slate Hill, Worthington Estates, and Worthington Hills boundaries. RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS BY ZIP CODE 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, * PAGE 20

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24 SURVIVAL RATIOS The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the school year were present in 2nd grade for the school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent. Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratios, not necessarily the actual number. The following table illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Worthington Schools over the past six years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to to to % % 23.26% % 98.85% % % % % % % % 98.37% % % % 23.16% % % % % % % 99.73% % 99.30% % % % % 22.86% % % % % 99.86% % % % % 98.02% 99.30% % % 22.09% 98.69% % % % % % % % % 97.38% % % % 22.39% 95.67% 99.73% 97.91% 98.18% 98.43% % % % % 98.43% % mean simple all years 21.12% % 22.75% % % % % % % % % % 98.58% % std. dev. simple all years 0.67% 0.51% 0.50% 3.07% 1.11% 1.66% 1.39% 1.68% 1.61% 1.04% 2.14% 0.82% 1.26% 1.32% mean simple 3 years 20.72% % 22.45% 98.79% % 99.73% % % % % % % 97.94% % std. dev. simple 3 years 0.48% 0.42% 0.39% 3.17% 0.89% 1.57% 1.63% 2.34% 1.95% 0.69% 1.05% 0.60% 0.53% 1.49% mean simple 2 years 20.70% % 22.24% 97.18% % 99.26% 99.35% % % % % % 97.90% % std. dev. simple 2 years 0.67% 0.46% 0.21% 2.13% 0.80% 1.91% 1.66% 3.24% 2.46% 0.68% 0.11% 0.65% 0.75% 1.20% mean weighted all years 20.65% % 22.44% 97.81% % 99.21% 99.43% 99.97% % % % % 98.24% % std. dev. weighted all years 0.56% 0.42% 0.36% 2.93% 0.81% 1.61% 1.55% 2.15% 1.71% 0.87% 1.49% 0.61% 0.84% 1.21% mean weighted 3 years 20.41% % 22.36% 96.45% % 98.50% 98.71% 99.29% % % % % 98.23% % std. dev. weighted 3 years 0.45% 0.34% 0.19% 1.96% 0.64% 1.36% 1.27% 2.13% 1.62% 0.52% 0.45% 0.48% 0.49% 1.01% mean weighted 2 years 20.27% % 22.38% 95.82% 99.79% 98.04% 98.29% 98.65% % % % % 98.38% % std. dev. weighted 2 years 0.29% 0.19% 0.09% 0.91% 0.34% 0.81% 0.71% 1.38% 1.05% 0.29% 0.05% 0.28% 0.32% 0.51% PAGE 22

25 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT As indicated in the table below, over the past seven years, PK-12 student enrollment in the Worthington Schools has increased by 930 students (not including unmatched or out-of-district students). Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK K Grand Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK K - 5 4,213 4,376 4,484 4,562 4,644 4, ,079 2,093 2,142 2,161 2,182 2, ,623 2,689 2,745 2,884 2,881 2,929 K ,915 9,158 9,371 9,607 9,707 9,738 Grand Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 23

26 Historical Enrollment - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary ,001 1,020 1,072 Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary 1,000 1,017 1, Slate Hill Boundary ,001 1, Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 985 1,020 1,103 1,146 1,154 1,157 Worthington Hills Boundary Worthington Park Boundary Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 Source: Worthington Schools 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 24

27 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT Cooperative Strategies developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the Worthington Schools. The moderate enrollment projections are based on a selected average or weighted average of survival ratios (in this case, a 3 year weighted average, by boundary). The low and high enrollment projections are developed using statistical distributional theory, providing the District with a more conservative (low) and more liberal (high) enrollment projection. The recommended enrollment projection is based on a detailed analysis of historical enrollment and resulting survival ratios over the past 10 years. Significant shifts in survival ratio patterns are realized and accounted for in determining projection ratios independently for each grade level. The recommended illustrates the most likely direction of the District based on more recent trends. The range of enrollment projections from low (conservative) to high (liberal) are offered due to the limitations of the cohort survival method in factoring changes to policies, program offerings, and future changes in housing and migration patters. For example, the low enrollment projection might be used if housing declines significantly more than anticipated; the high enrollment projection might be used if housing growth increases at a more rapid rate than seen in recent years. 14,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Worthington Schools 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High PAGE 25

28 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT RECOMMENDED Based on the recommended projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,026 in to 10,965 students in Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K Grand Total 10,154 10,241 10,401 10,525 10,632 10,722 10,798 10,824 10,864 10,965 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K - 5 4,572 4,600 4,695 4,790 4,858 4,941 4,953 4,964 4,949 4, ,327 2,380 2,362 2,286 2,257 2,259 2,347 2,404 2,507 2, ,967 2,973 3,056 3,161 3,229 3,234 3,210 3,168 3,120 3,210 K ,866 9,953 10,113 10,237 10,344 10,434 10,510 10,536 10,576 10,677 Grand Total 10,154 10,241 10,401 10,525 10,632 10,722 10,798 10,824 10,864 10,965 PAGE 26

29 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary ,001 1,043 1,075 1,113 1,144 1,170 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary 1,103 1,128 1,166 1,199 1,221 1,243 1,275 1,280 1,295 1,322 Granby Boundary ,000 1,011 1,033 1,041 1,059 1,057 1,075 1,083 Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary , , ,011 Worthington Estates Boundary 1,199 1,235 1,281 1,326 1,357 1,366 1,367 1,372 1,386 1,404 Worthington Hills Boundary ,033 1,070 1,104 1,134 1,159 1,157 1,201 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,154 10,241 10,401 10,525 10,632 10,722 10,798 10,824 10,864 10,965 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 27

30 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT MODERATE Based on the moderate projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,026 in to 10,641 students in Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K Grand Total 10,120 10,179 10,306 10,394 10,489 10,556 10,592 10,563 10,578 10,641 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K - 5 4,528 4,516 4,587 4,643 4,697 4,760 4,766 4,777 4,764 4, ,343 2,410 2,381 2,293 2,253 2,251 2,308 2,336 2,418 2, ,961 2,965 3,050 3,170 3,251 3,257 3,230 3,162 3,108 3,166 K ,832 9,891 10,018 10,106 10,201 10,268 10,304 10,275 10,290 10,353 Grand Total 10,120 10,179 10,306 10,394 10,489 10,556 10,592 10,563 10,578 10,641 PAGE 28

31 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary ,025 1,057 1,081 1,102 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary 1,118 1,159 1,210 1,251 1,284 1,315 1,355 1,366 1,389 1,425 Granby Boundary ,001 1,001 1, Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 1,182 1,195 1,219 1,241 1,259 1,251 1,233 1,218 1,217 1,222 Worthington Hills Boundary ,004 1,044 1,091 1,134 1,166 1,196 1,206 1,246 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,120 10,179 10,306 10,394 10,489 10,556 10,592 10,563 10,578 10,641 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - MODERATE - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 29

32 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT LOW Based on the low projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to decrease from 10,026 in to 9,313 students in Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide PK K Grand Total 9,932 9,820 9,780 9,718 9,664 9,605 9,533 9,411 9,332 9,313 Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide PK K - 5 4,424 4,327 4,314 4,302 4,300 4,325 4,331 4,335 4,321 4, ,306 2,331 2,271 2,156 2,070 2,034 2,022 2,007 2,040 2, ,914 2,874 2,907 2,972 3,006 2,958 2,892 2,781 2,683 2,658 K ,644 9,532 9,492 9,430 9,376 9,317 9,245 9,123 9,044 9,025 Grand Total 9,932 9,820 9,780 9,718 9,664 9,605 9,533 9,411 9,332 9,313 PAGE 30

33 Projected Enrollment - Low - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary 1,106 1,132 1,170 1,197 1,218 1,236 1,265 1,267 1,275 1,301 Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 1,155 1,148 1,147 1,149 1,148 1,129 1,101 1,073 1,062 1,061 Worthington Hills Boundary ,009 1,041 1,060 1,079 1,083 1,110 Worthington Park Boundary Total 9,932 9,820 9,780 9,718 9,664 9,605 9,533 9,411 9,332 9,313 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - LOW - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 31

34 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT HIGH Based on the high projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,026 in to 12,137 students in Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K , Grand Total 10,311 10,549 10,850 11,114 11,362 11,574 11,743 11,830 11,957 12,137 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K - 5 4,636 4,717 4,866 5,001 5,117 5,225 5,234 5,243 5,227 5, ,379 2,484 2,497 2,443 2,438 2,484 2,620 2,711 2,855 2, ,008 3,060 3,199 3,382 3,519 3,577 3,601 3,588 3,587 3,754 K ,023 10,261 10,562 10,826 11,074 11,286 11,455 11,542 11,669 11,849 Grand Total 10,311 10,549 10,850 11,114 11,362 11,574 11,743 11,830 11,957 12,137 PAGE 32

35 Projected Enrollment - High - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary ,005 1,045 1,094 1,137 1,183 1,220 1,256 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary ,006 1,015 Evening Street Boundary 1,132 1,188 1,250 1,305 1,352 1,398 1,449 1,471 1,505 1,556 Granby Boundary ,048 1,072 1,110 1,127 1,155 1,156 1,177 1,194 Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary 1,012 1,022 1,041 1,052 1,061 1,075 1,089 1,113 1,103 1,133 Worthington Estates Boundary 1,204 1,242 1,290 1,338 1,376 1,385 1,380 1,377 1,390 1,406 Worthington Hills Boundary 968 1,008 1,055 1,109 1,172 1,234 1,285 1,330 1,349 1,404 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,311 10,549 10,850 11,114 11,362 11,574 11,743 11,830 11,957 12,137 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - HIGH - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 33

36 ENROLLMENT BY BOUNDARY The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by boundary. Bluffsview Boundary Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary Worthington Hills Boundary Worthington Park Boundary PAGE 34

37 BLUFFSVIEW BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Bluffsview Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Bluffsview Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 35

38 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total ,001 1,043 1,075 1,113 1,144 1,170 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,022 1,054 1,092 1,123 1,149 Grand Total ,001 1,043 1,075 1,113 1,144 1,170 PAGE 36

39 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total ,025 1,057 1,081 1,102 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,004 1,036 1,060 1,081 Grand Total ,025 1,057 1,081 1,102 PAGE 37

40 Projected Enrollment - Low - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 38

41 Projected Enrollment - High - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total ,005 1,045 1,094 1,137 1,183 1,220 1,256 Projected Enrollment - High - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,024 1,073 1,116 1,162 1,199 1,235 Grand Total ,005 1,045 1,094 1,137 1,183 1,220 1,256 PAGE 39

42 BROOKSIDE BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Brookside Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Brookside Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 40

43 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 41

44 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 42

45 Projected Enrollment - Low - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 43

46 Projected Enrollment - High - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 44

47 COLONIAL HILLS BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Colonial Hills Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Colonial Hills Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 45

48 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 46

49 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 47

50 Projected Enrollment - Low - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 48