Present Status and Future Prospect of

Transcription

1 WWEC 2017 REMalmoe, Sweden Present Status and Future Prospect of Wind Power Generation in Japan June 13 th, 2017 Izumi USHIYAMA Ashikaga Institute of Technology. 1

2 My talk will cover; 1. Japanese Wind Power Wind power potential Effect of Feed in Tariff Obstacle of wind power in Japan 2. Offshore wind power in Japan Fixed type Floating type 3. Future prospect of wind power in Japan 4. Conclusion 2

3 Wind Power Capacity in the World (Cumulative) The Total 490GW at the end of 2016, now 500GW! (Total Wind Power Capacity in Japan: 3 GW) GWEC Global Wind 2015 Report

4 Introduction Trend of WTG in the World China (1st) T o t a l M W USA (2nd) Germany((3rd) Spain (4th India (5th) 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Japan (19 th ) Source: GWEC, Global Wind Statistics 4

5 Wind power mass introduction can reduce fossil fuel import and help Japan Japan has imported 26 billion $ of fuel [70 bil.try,24 bil. ] in 2013 & in 2014 Ref: GWEC/Global Wind Day 3

6 Public Opinion has changed in Japan Impact of Fukushima No.1 nuclear accident in 2011 was broad and long-lasting, thus public opinion dramatically changed from accepting-nuclear stance to anti-nuclear and prorenewables Reactor #3 Reactor #4 Source: Jiji Press Source: Daily Yomiuri

7 Japan has plenty of Wind Energy Resources at onshore & offshore Available Energy; Onshore: 210GW Fixed offshore: 156GW Floating offshore: 300GW Total: 666GW Conditions; Average wind speed at 80m height: Onshore: 6.0m/s > Fixed offshore: 7.0m/s > Floating offshore: 7.5m/s > Capacity/area conversion at 10,000 kw/1km2 Considering particular social conditions

8 Japan has plenty wind energy potential by each power company

9 Japanese Government introduced attractive FIT price for renewables since July The tariff are without tax, and keep for 20 years. - The tariff are re-assessed every year based on the latest market prices. - The tariff are qualified just before grid connection approval (almost finishing 4 years EIA process for wind farm. On the other hand, solar power is EIA free.) - 22 JPY/kWh for wind power is attractive, but unfortunately, JPY/kWh for solar power were more attractive for investors in past days. Wind Power (onshore: 20kW) Wind Power (offshore) Solar Power (large scale: 10kW) FY2012 July-Mar.2013 FY2013 Apr.-Mar.2014 Had not offered. 40JPY/kWh [ 0.87 TRY/kWh] [ 0.31 EUR/kWh] 36JPY/kWh [ 0.78 TRY/kWh] [ 0.29 EUR/kWh] FY2014 Apr.-Mar JPY/kWh [ 0.48 TRY/kWh ] [ 0.17 EUR/kWh ] 32JPY/kWh [ 0.69 TRY/kWh] [ 0.25 EUR/kWh] FY2015 Apr.-June 36 JPY/kWh [ 0.78 TRY/kWh ] [ 0.28 EUR/kWh ] 29JPY/kWh [ 0.63 TRY/kWh] [ 0.22 EUR/kWh] FY2015 July-Mar JPY/kWh [ 0.59 TRY/kWh] [ 0.21 EUR/kWh]

10 Solar power in Japan burst in 2013 & MW Solar Power Accumulated at the end of March 2015: GW New installation for FY2014: 8.55 GW/year Fiscal year (April March) The total FIT approved projects now: 68 GW ( 27 GW of them were requested only in Feb&Mar 2014 )

11 But, Wind Power in Japan is still low level. (About 1/40 of Solar power industry) Latest wind Power Statistics in Japan (at the end of Mar. 2015) - Total installed wind power : 2,922MW, 2,031 units 77% of Turkish 3,763MW - New wind installed FY2014 : 215 MW / year, 97 units 1/4 of Turkish 804MW/year - Total electric output from wind : 4500 GWh / year - Wind generation share of national electric demand : 0.5 % Japan could not achieve the past target 3GW by Lack of Incentive Subsidies terminated FIT starts Delay by Assessment Assumed from JWPA s data

12 Obstacles against Wind Power in Japan. Root Problem - Inconsistent Policy for Renewable Energies by Japanese Government - Some people still want nuclear power, others loves solar power than wind power. Short Term - Cumbersome Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedures. This was applied for all wind farm over 10MW since Oct It needs about 4 years and millions of euros to complete this EIA process. - Japanese government admits this problem and starts improving projects of 5.2 GW are in the EIA process now. Most of them are locates in northern rural area of Japan, Hokkaido & Tohoku. Middle Term - Grid restriction caused by old-fashioned electric power operating systems. Japanese electric power system is dominated by 9 regional utilities. They dominate from power generation, transmission & distribution at each region. - They dislike to send electricity inter-regionally. It narrows wind power introduction in Japan in past days. - Japanese government intends to achieve unbundling Japanese electric power, so called Electric power system reform.

13 Bottleneck between Wind Resources and Electricity Demand in Japan Grid lines in Japan are divided into 9 regions and Okinawa. Eastern 3 regions are 50Hz and western 6 regions are 60Hz. Each region has its own utility tasked with preserving the demand/supply balance. With the increase of wind generation in appropriate areas, issues arise in terms of facilities and rules when considering transmission to far away demand locations. Utility (Electric Company) Maximum Demand Available Onshore Wind Energy Hokkaido 5.6GW 140GW Tohoku 15GW 73GW Tokyo 64GW 4GW Chubu 28GW 8GW Hokuriku 5.6GW 5GW Kansai 33GW 13GW Shikoku 5.9GW 5GW Chugoku 12GW 9GW Kyushu 17GW 21GW 50Hz 60Hz 21GW Okinawa Electric Power Capacity of transmission lines between supply and demand regions is insufficient. Kyushu Electric Power High volume transmission lines do not match wind power specs. Chugoku Electric Power 2GW 9GW 16.7GW Shikoku Electric Power 5GW 5GW Kansai Electric Power Good for Wind Power Generation Hokuriku Electric Power 13GW 5.6GW Chubu Electric Power WEST 60Hz 8GW Tohoku Electric Power Hokkaido Electric Power Tokyo Electric Power 140GW Major Demand Area Source : FEPC, Ministry of the Environment 73GW EAST 50Hz 4GW Available Wind Energy 13

14 The Way to Improve Situation Improve Power Grid Operation n Inter-regional grid operation for wind power aggregation n Build new local grid lines at northern rural area n Enlarge inter-regional grid line between Hokkaido and Aomori ( Kita-Honn transmission line ) n Sophisticated wind power output prediction system n Power storage system (pumped hydro, batteries) n Demand side management system n Retrofit fossil power plants for ancillary service Improve Wind Farm Operation n Wind farm output park control n Reduce output fluctuation using battery system 14

15 Japanese METI started 50% funding for building new grid lines for wind power in 2013 Northern Hokkaido: 0.29GW 3.935GW By 290 billion JPY, from 2013 Ref:METI Tohoku, Akita and Aomori: 1.94GW 2.22GW By 20 billion JPY, from

16 Wind turbines by Japanese companies MHI s New Hydraulic Drive wind turbine Hitachi s Downwind type 5MW wind turbine (will applied for Kashima offshore PJ) Japan Steel Work (JSW) s New J100/2.7 Gearless PMSG wind tubine

17 Industrial Effect by Installation & Manufacturin n There are many wind power associated companies in Japan. 17

18 Total Domestic Production of WTG Industries in Japan Total Domestic Production (million JPY) Total 251 billion JPY 95 bil. 156 bil. Components etc. Wind Turbines Trends from FY2009 to FY2012 Total 104 billion JPY 32 bil. 72 bil. FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Total Domestic Production (million JPY) Micro WTG Small WTG Middle WTG Large WTG Detail Research Results in FY2012 Blade Blade material Drive train Controller, Converter Main bearing Generator Yaw, Pitch, Hydraulic Tower Flange, Nacelle base Other parts Substation, Grid device Other machineries Other electric devices etc. 18

19 Onshore, Fixed offshore, Floating offshore n n n Onshore wind leads at early years. But, onshore capacity shall be limited by high population density in Japan. Japan has world 6 th largest EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Therefore, offshore wind has large potential. Floating offshore shall be applied for deep sea area. n Onshore 50%, Fixed offshore 25%, Floating offshore 25% Onshore Fixed Offshore Floating Offshore 19

20 National R&D Projects (Offshore Wind) Goto 2012 FHI 100kW 2013 Hitachi 2MW (Floating) Hibikinada 2013 JSW 2MW Fukushima 2013 Hitachi 2MW, Floating Power Station 2014 MHI 7MW 2015 MHI 7MW (Floating) Choshi 2013 MHI 2.4MW

21 Why Offshore Wind for Japan? n Japan has high population density : 336 people/km2 Ref: Netherland 339, Germany 230, Danmark 127, USA 33 n About 70% of Japan is mountainous. Plains are occupied by housings. Onland WTGs may cause NIMBY problem. Japan has the world 6th largest EEZ. (exclusive economic zone). n Wind resources in Japan locate at northern parts. Very far from population center, lacking grid lines Offshore near Tokyo,Nagoya,Fukuoka go attractive. n Japan needs New Business & Industry Offshore wind development has large influence. For Exam.: Shipbuilding, Marine Construction, Steel, etc.

22 METI s Fukushima floating Recovery, WT project Experimental (Overview) Offshore Floating Wind Farm Project Project Consortium:11 members Marubeni (Project integrator) MHI University of Tokyo Mitsubishi Corp. IHI Marine United MES Nippon Steel Hitachi Furukawa Electric Shimizu Corp. Mizuho Information & Research Hitachi JMU Spar Hitachi 2MW Mitsui semi-sub MHI 7MW MHI semi-sub 7MW JMU Spar Source; Fukushima offshore wind consortium

23 Ref: Nikkei Business 2MW WTG on 4 Column semi-sub Floater in 2013 Ref: Fulushima FORWARD PJ 25 June : Press conference at Dockyard of Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Co. at Ichihara, Chiba Pref. 28 June 1 July : It cruises from Ichihara to Onahama port at Fukushima Pref. Hitachi s Down wind type 2MW wind turbine 11 Nov. : in operation

24 World First Floating Type Substation (Transformer; Hitachi, Floater; JMU) End of July 2013 : Launched at Dockyard of Japan Marine United Co. at Yokohama, Kanagawa Pref. It cruises directly from Yokohama to Onahama port at Fukushima Pref. November: in operation 出典 : Fulushima FORWARD PJ

25 Floating Type Offshore WT HITACHI 5MW Rotor Dia.126m at Fukushima

26 7MW WTG on 3 Column semi-sub Floater in 2015 Ref: Fukushima FORWARD Cruising from MHI Nagasaki Dockyard on 30 Oct Start tower installation at Onahama port in Fukushima in Mar

27 World Biggest Class 7MW WTG on 3 Column Floater in 2015 (Mitsubishi Heavy Industry)

28 Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan, estimated by the JWPA n Wind power shall supply 20% of Japanese electricity by FY2050. n Accumulated installed capacity:11gw by 2020, 36GW by 2030, 75GW by n - About half of them shall be offshore wind power including floating type. 累積導入量 [ 万 kw] 80 8, , , , , , , ,000 0 風力発電導入ロードマップ Roadmap for the introduction of : wind ビジョン power Floating 浮体式風力 offshore 着床式風力 Fixed offshore 陸上風力実績 FY GW 0.004GW 0.046GW 2.6GW FY GW 0.1GW 0.6GW 10. GW FY GW 4GW 6GW 27GW FY GW 18GW 19GW 38GW Electricity supply by wind power : 0.5% 2% 9% 20% 28

29 CONCLUSION n n n n n Japan was not so eager to wind power development in past days. Because there are many hurdles against wind power development in Japan. Such as, grid restriction, severe EIA etc. Japan has changed to pro-wind action after Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Offshore wind is one of the key technologies. We are trying to remove these hurdles now. But, it needs more a couple of years to realize. Future offshore wind power development in Japan has enormous potential. 29

30 Thank you for your kind attention