Wind power mass introduction can reduce fossil fuel import and help Japan

Transcription

1 The European Horizon 2020 Program and EERA Offshore Wind Energy Possible areas of Japanese participations to Horizon 2020 work programme for the offshore wind from a perspective of Japanese wind industry 28 May 2015 Yokohama, Kanagawa Pref. JAPAN WIND POWER ASSOCIATION Yoshinori Ueda Nikaho, Akita Pref. 1 Wind power mass introduction can reduce fossil fuel import and help Japan Japan has imported 26 billion $ of fuel [70 bil.try,24 bil. ] in 2013 & in 2014 Ref: GWEC/Global Wind Day 3

2 Public Opinion has changed in Japan Impact of Fukushima No.1 nuclear incident in 2011 was broad and long-lasting, thus public opinion dramatically changed from accepting-nuclear stance to anti-nuclear and pro-renewables Reactor #3 Reactor #4 Source: Jiji Press Source: Daily Yomiuri Japan has plenty of Wind Energy Resources at onshore & offshore Available Energy; Onshore: 210GW Fixed offshore: 156GW Floating offshore: 300GW Total: 666GW Conditions; Average wind speed at 80m height: Onshore: 6.0m/s > Fixed offshore: 7.0m/s > Floating offshore: 7.5m/s > Capacity/area conversion at 10,000 kw/1km 2 Considering particular social conditions

3 Japanese Government introduced attractive FIT price for renewables since July The tariff are without tax, and keep for 20 years. - The tariff are re-assessed every year based on the latest market prices. - The tariff are qualified just before grid connection approval (almost finishing 4 years EIA process for wind farm. On the other hand, solar power is EIA free.) - 22 JPY/kWh for wind power is attractive, but unfortunately, JPY/kWh for solar power were more attractive for investors in past days. Wind Power (onshore: 20kW) Wind Power (offshore) Solar Power (large scale: 10kW) FY2012 July-Mar.2013 FY2013 Apr.-Mar.2014 Had not offered. 40JPY/kWh [ 0.87 TRY/kWh] [ 0.31 EUR/kWh] 36JPY/kWh [ 0.78 TRY/kWh] [ 0.29 EUR/kWh] FY2014 Apr.-Mar JPY/kWh [ 0.48 TRY/kWh ] [ 0.17 EUR/kWh ] 32JPY/kWh [ 0.69 TRY/kWh] [ 0.25 EUR/kWh] FY2015 Apr.-June 36 JPY/kWh [ 0.78 TRY/kWh ] [ 0.28 EUR/kWh ] 29JPY/kWh [ 0.63 TRY/kWh] [ 0.22 EUR/kWh] FY2015 July-Mar JPY/kWh [ 0.59 TRY/kWh] [ 0.21 EUR/kWh] FIT price for Wind,Offshore wind, and Solar power in Japan FIT price (JPY/kWh) FIT price for solar was more than times higher than for wind power until Mar Wind Offshore Solar Solar price has decreased rapidly. Then, Wind power becomes attractive for investors after Apr

4 Foreign Companies start investing to Japan Japanese Companies corporates with foreign companies.(ex. Hitz) Note: it uses fixed foundation.

5 But, Wind Power in Japan is still low level. (About 1/40 of Solar power industry) Latest wind Power Statistics in Japan (at the end of Mar. 2015) - Total installed wind power : 2,922MW, 2,031 units (ie: Solar power 19GW) - New wind installed FY2014 : 215 MW / year, 97 units - Total electric output from wind : 4500 GWh / year - Wind generation share of national electric demand : 0.5 % Japan could not achieve the past target 3GW by Lack of Incentive Subsidies terminated FIT starts Delay by Assessment Assumed from JWPA s data Roadmap for the Wind Power Introduction for Japan, estimated by the JWPA Wind power shall supply 20% of Japanese electricity by FY2050. Accumulated installed capacity:11gw by 2020, 36GW by 2030, 75GW by About half of them shall be offshore wind power including floating type. - 累積導入量 [ 万 kw] 80 8, , , , , , , ,000 0 風力発電導入ロードマップ Roadmap for the introduction of : wind ビジョン power Floating 浮体式風力 offshore 着床式風力 Fixed offshore 陸上風力実績 FY GW 0.004GW 0.046GW 2.6GW FY GW 0.1GW 0.6GW 10. GW FY GW 4GW 6GW 27GW FY GW 18GW 19GW 38GW Electricity supply by wind power : 0.5% 2% 9% 20% 10

6 Onshore, Fixed offshore, Floating offshore Onshore wind leads at early years. But, onshore capacity shall be limited by high population density in Japan. Japan has world 6 th largest EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Therefore, offshore wind has large potential. Floating offshore shall be applied for deep sea area. Onshore 50%, Fixed offshore 25%, Floating offshore 25% Onshore Fixed Offshore Floating Offshore 11 Who is the JWPA? The Japan Wind Power Association (JWPA) represents wind power industry in Japan. By expanding wind power in Japan, we wish to contribute to improving Japanese energy security and preventing global warming. The JWPA has been founded in companies (developers, turbine manufacturers, constructors, consultants, etc.) join JWPA at Mar JWPA s members own 85% of wind power installation in Japan. 2

7 Wind Turbine Component Industry in Japan There are many wind power associated companies in Japan. 13 New WTGs made by Japanese companies MHI s New Hydraulic Drive wind turbine Hitachi s Downwind tyoe 5MW wind turbine (will applied for Kashima offshore PJ) Japan Steel Work (JSW) s New J100/2.7 Gearless PMSG wind tubine

8 WTG Industry Production Summary for FY2012 Main Detail Categories Companies Factories Employees Domestic Production Wind Turbines Main Compo -nents Million JPY Oversea Production Micro size (1kW <) Small size (1kW 50 kw) Middle Size (50 kw 1,000 kw) Large Size ( 1,000 kw ) ,638 0 WTG Total ,905 6 Blade, Nacelle cover ,454 Blade material (fiber & resin) Drive train (Hub, Main shaft, Gearbox) ,743 0 Controller, Converter, Transformer Main bearing , Generator ,680 0 Yaw control, Pitch control, Brake, Hydraulic ,424 0 Tower ,550 Flange, Nacelle base plate Other parts and Accessories Others , Components Total ,228 32,062 12,598 General Total , ,966 12, Total Domestic Production of WTG Industries in Japan Total Domestic Production (million JPY) Total 251 billion JPY 95 bil. 156 bil. Components etc. Wind Turbines Trends from FY2009 to FY2012 Total 104 billion JPY 32 bil. 72 bil. FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Total Domestic Production (million JPY) Micro WTG Small WTG Middle WTG Large WTG Detail Research Results in FY2012 Blade Blade material Drive train Controller, Converter Main bearing Generator Yaw, Pitch, Hydraulic Tower Flange, Nacelle base Other parts Substation, Grid device Other machineries Other electric devices etc. 16

9 Economic Effects (Industry and Employment) 4.5 Trillion JPY/year will be carried out by wind power in T JPY by Construction & Manufacturing, 3 T JPY by O&M etc. They will create more than 290 thousand jobs for Japan in Construction & Manufacturing Total cost Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B , O&M, insurance Direct Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B ,470.0 Economic ripple Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B Floating, offshore JPY B Total JPY B , ,452.0 Economic ripple Unit Onshore JPY B Fixed, offshore JPY B ,196.0 Floating offshore JPY B ,211.0 Total JPY B , ,032.0 Job creation Unit Onshore 1, Fixed, offshore 1, Floating, offshore 1, Total 1, Job creation Unit Onshore 1, Fixed, offshore 1, Floating, offshore 1, Total 1, Offshore Wind Power Projects in Japan ( in operation 2014 ) Hakata 2011 Lens type 3kW X 2units (Floating) Sasebo, /10 Model (Floating) Kabashima at Goto Islands 2012 FHI 100kW 2013 Hitachi 2MW (Floating) Hibikinada 2013 JSW 2MW Saga, kW Model (Floating) Sakata, 2004 Vestas 2MW X 5units Setana 2004 Vestas 600kW X 2units Choshi Jan 2013 MHI 2.4MW Black: Early exam. Green: Founded type Brown: Floating(small) Blue: Floating type : National Project Fukushima FORWARD 2013 Hitachi 2MW 2015 MHI 7MW 2016? 5MW? (Floating) Kamisu 2010 FHI 2MW X 7units 2013 Hitachi 2MW X 8units Note: FHI s WTG division has merged by Hitachi in July 2012.

10 Commercial Offshore Wind Power Projects in Japan - More than 10 projects (about 900MW in total) are under planning. - 鹿島港 Kashima project is the top runner. 1 st phase (5MW x 25 units) will start construction in Why Offshore Wind for Japan? Japan has high population density : 336 people/km2 Ref: Netherland 339, Germany 230, Danmark 127, USA 33 About 70% of Japan is mountainous. Plains are occupied by housings. Onland WTGs may cause NIMBY problem. Japan has the world 6th largest EEZ. (exclusive economic zone). Wind resources in Japan locate at northern parts. Very far from population center, lacking grid lines Offshore near Tokyo,Nagoya,Fukuoka go attractive. Japan needs New Business & Industry Offshore wind development has large influence. For Exam.: Shipbuilding, Marine Construction, Steel, etc.

11 Commercial Offshore Windfarm in Japan Kamisu became the 1st survivor of tsunami. Windpower Kamisu offshore windfarm is made by 7 FHI s SUBARU80/2.0 2MW WTGs. They are about 300km far from the epicenter. Shaking level was 5 plus and about 5 m height tsunami attacked the farm. But turbines are safe and start operation again on 14.March. Photo by Tokyo Shinbun Many trashes are carried by tsunami under the turbines Offshore Wind Power National Projects 1. Demonstration of Offshore Wind Power Generation (by NEDO) - At Choshi in Chiba Pref. and at Hibikinada in Fukuoka Pref billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - MHI 2.4MW on the gravity foundation at Choshi in Jan JSW 2MW on the hybrid jacket foundation at Hibikinada in Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Demonstration Project (by MOE) - Near Kabashima Island at Goto Islands in Nagasaki Pref billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - FHI Subaru(Hitachi) 100kW on the spar floater in Aug Hitachi 2MW on the spar floater in Floating Offshore Wind Farm Demonstration Project (by METI) - At Fukushima. 9.5 billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - Hitachi 2MW on the 4 column semi-sub. floater in MHI 7MW (SeaAngel) on the 3 column semi-sub. floater in Hitachi 5MW on the advanced spar floater in around Advanced Floating Offshore Wind Farm Project (by NEDO) - To achieve cost reduction for semi-sub type floating offshore wind power (,by introducing latest foreign new technologies) Start from 2015 fiscal year

12 Demonstration of Offshore Wind Power Generation by NEDO, at Choshi, Chiba Pref. WTG: MWT92/2.4 offshore model Foundation: Gravity type Output: 2.4MW Rotor Dia.: 92m Hub Ht.: 80m Water Depth: 12m 3km from seashore 茨城県 Ibaragi 千葉県 Chiba 鹿島港 風車 観測タワー Ref: NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) 285m 23 Demonstration of Offshore Wind Power Generation by NEDO, at Hibikinada, Fukuoka Pref. Anemometer Tower WTG Under sea cable 1,400m Ref: NEDO Switching Gear Hybrid Gravity Foundation In Operation on June Ref:NEDO JSW J82 2MW gearless PMSG WTG 変圧器 サフ フレーム ナセル ハブ コンバータ 除湿機 発電機 24

13 Kyusyu University try Lens Wind Turbine 3kW X 2 units, in operation Dec.2011 at Hakata Bay. MODEC plans Wind & Stream hybrid system : Skwid Unfortunately, 500kW test unit had sunk before operation in 2014 at Saga, Kyusyu. They try to salvage it now. Ref: MODEC

14 Sasebo Heavy Industries Co. and Kyoto University have tested 1/10 Model at Sasebo Bay on 9 Sep Hybrid Spar type Floater is made by pre-stressed Concrete. Total length : 12.5 m Undersea length : 7 m MOE Floating WTG Project at Kabashima in Goto Islands, Nagasaki Pref. Fuji Heavi Industries Down wind type 2MW wind turbine Hitachi s Down wind type 2MW wind turbine 28 Oct.2013: in Operation June 2012: in Operation Water depth: 96m(LSWL)- 99m(HSWL) Distance from land: 1km Distance for marine cable: 2km Vaverage@60m: 7.5m/s Ve50@60m: 53.1m/s Hs50: 7.7m Ts50: 14sec Max Current: 0.96m/s 1km 2km Cable

15 METI s Fukushima floating Recovery, WT project Experimental (Overview) Offshore Floating Wind Farm Project Project Consortium:11 members Marubeni (Project integrator) MHI University of Tokyo Mitsubishi Corp. IHI Marine United MES Nippon Steel Hitachi Furukawa Electric Shimizu Corp. Mizuho Information & Research ? Hitachi JMU Spar Hitachi 2MW Mitsui semi-sub MHI 7MW MHI semi-sub 5MW? JMU Spar Source; Fukushima offshore wind consortium 2MW WTG on 4 Column semi-sub Floater in June : Press conference at Dockyard of Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Co. at Ichihara, Chiba Pref. 28 June 1 July : It cruises from Ichihara to Onahama port at Fukushima Pref. Ref: Fulushima FORWARD PJ Hitachi s Down wind type 2MW wind turbine 11 Nov. : in operation Ref: Asahi Shinbun Ref: Nikkei Business

16 7MW WTG on 3 Column semi-sub Floater in 2015 Cruising from MHI Nagasaki Dockyard on 30 Oct Start tower installation at Onahama port in Fukushima in Mar Ref: Fukushima FORWARD Questions: Why Floating? Is it Possible? Realistic? Our Answers: We are not sure about this business, because this is a new technology. But, We expect to create a new industry by the offshore wind power development. And it is useful for the Tohoku district s revival from the disaster. Therefore at Fukushima. At last, if you begin a new business, you need Animal Spirit as John Maynard Keynes said. We Japanese have brave hearts to challenge the new technology.

17 Conclusion Japan has changed to pro-wind action after Fukushima accident. Offshore wind is one of the key technologies. (But, pro-nuclear people strike back now.) Many companies and universities have interests in offshore wind power in Japan. Some of them start cooperation with foreign companies. Horizon 2020 have a chance in Japan. Please expect Future offshore wind in Japan. 33