WIND ENERGY IN JAPAN. Chuichi Arakawa The University of Tokyo

Transcription

1 Joint Scientific Symposium on Energy for 21th Century: Wind Energy Tokyo, May 21, 2013 WIND ENERGY IN JAPAN Chuichi Arakawa The University of Tokyo Supported by JWEA/JWPA Kamisu, Japan / 2MW x 7 This wind farm withstood Tsunami on units of 2MW Wind Turbine Being developed as private sector to 15 units of 2MW and to future Giga-watt farm 1

2 Japan had lower position at Wind power China 30% 2012 New China 27% 2012end Total USA 29% Germany 12% USA 21% Japan (23th) 88 MW 0.2 % Japan (13th) 2614 MW 0.9 % Ref: GWEC Global Wind Statistics

3 But, Public Opinion has changed in Japan Impact of Fukushima No.1 nuclear incident was broad and long-lasting, thus public opinion dramatically changed from accepting-nuclear stance to anti-nuclear and pro-renewables Reactor #3 Reactor #4 Source: Jiji Press Source: Daily Yomiuri

4 Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake (Mar., 2011) 4 nuclear plants in Fukushima were dismantled. Rest of 50 nuclear plants were forced to be shut down. 48 out of 50 plants are still under suspension. Japanese fossil fuel import has increased dramatically. Electric Generation Composition Ratio by Energy Source Japanese Fossil Fuel Import Trillion JPY (3 Trillion JPY in future) 14.4% Crude Oil 25.0% 39.5% Natural Gas Oil LNG Coal Coal 0 Ref: The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan Ref: Trade Statistics by Department of the Treasury in Japan

5 Japan has plenty Wind Power Potential Report of investigation for renewable energy in MOE(Ministry of Environment) in GW for onshore, 1570 GW for offshore as potential value 273 GW for onshore, 141 GW for offshore under some scenario such as half-price North latitude ( Source :NEDO) Annual average wind speed Height East longitude 5

6 Japan starts promoting Wind Power now! Hurdles against Wind power 1. Lack of Target 2. Lack of Incentive (Subsidies have terminated already in 2010.) 3. Too many regulations (Environmental impact assessment law, etc.) 4. Poor Grid infrastructure (Mismatch of wind resources and electricity demands) 5. Poor political support 6. Severe Climate 7. High population in narrow land area Solutions 1. Under discussion. May be about 35 by Feed in Tariff law - Valid after July JPY/kWh (include tax) - Offshore price isn t fixed 3. Under discussion. 4. Grid extension is planned by METI for Hokkaido and Tohoku. 5. WTG industries create 3000 jobs in Japan now. 6. Guideline for Typhoon 7. Offshore wind power Japan has the world 6th largest EEZ (exclusive economic zone). 6

7 1. New Target for Wind Power (in 2012 at DPJ Government) New Long Term Energy Plan by Japanese Government at DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) 2 15% Nuclear power by 2030 Scenario On future energy portfolio, Japanese government proposed 3 choices/scenarios to the public. Possible Power Supply Combination in 2030 Nuclear Renewables Wind Fossil Energy Saving Renewable Energy 1 35% 25% 3% (13+2 GW) 2 15% 30% 7% (30+5 GW) 3 0% 35% 12% (51+9 GW) Blue : Offshore wind power Nuclear Hydro Ref: Report by Science Council of Japan on 22 Sep Japanese electric power companies want 1. DPJ Government thought 2 as realistic. About 70% citizen were in favor of 3. But, LDP (New Gov.) doesn t agree to 3. 2 scenario is the most realistic. 7

8 Japanese New Government at LDP (Liberal Democratic Party of Japan) start re-estimating DPJ s Energy Plan Re-estimate DPJ s Energy Plan, including 25% CO 2 Reduction. Nuclear Energy has still some position in future. 3 years for investigating nuclear plants restart. 10 years for fixing New Long Term Energy Plan. Power generation and transmission will be separated legally within 5 years. New Gov. gives more than 40 billion JPY budget in 2013 for wind power development and grid extension. Wind power has important role in Japanese future. But, the New Target will not be fixed in short time.

9 Type 2. Incentive: New Feed in Tariff Law - New FIT law goes in operation on July Purchasing prices are estimated as to get 6%-8% IRR, based on Japanese domestic experience. - Prices are re-estimated every year (e.g ), but 3 years priority period is considered. - METI maintained FIT for wind at the same level for Price with tax Price (JPY/kWh) Period (years) Solar (10kW ) Solar (>10kW) Wind (20kW ) Wind (>20kW) Geo Thermal (150MW ) (>150MW) JPY/kWh Energy Cost Experience in Japan Hydro (1MW-30MW) (200kW-1MW) (>200kW) Small Mega Wind Geo Small Biomass Coal Nuclear Large Solar Solar (on land) Thermal Hydro fired Fossil Hydro Ref: The cost estimating committee in METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) 9

10 3. Aspiration for De-regulation Regulation Current issues Environmental impact assessment Building codes Agricultural Land Act Forest Act Natural Parks Act Coast Act Ports and Harbors Act From Oct 2012 applied to wind power as well. It means 3 or 4 years and additional cost to pass through. Same code as skyscraper It shall be merged to Electricity Business Law in near future Taking land out of active use for agriculture is very difficult It takes more than 1 year to get approval Regulations on National Forest Release from forest conservation is difficult Difficult to site location in Natural Park Vague rules for landscape code Difficult site location near ports and coast A law is a law, however undesirable it may be. JWPA (Japan Wind Power Association) requests for de-regulation. Japanese government starts improving the situation. 10

11 Assumed from JWPA s data Wind Power Installation in Japan Latest wind Power Statistics in Japan (at the end of 2012) - Total installed wind generation : 2,614MW, 1,887 turbines - New wind generation installed : 87 MW / year, 47 turbines - Total electric output from wind : 4500 GWh / year - Wind generation share of national electric demand : 0.5 % Japan could not achieve the past target 3GW by Lack of Incentive Subsidies terminated FIT starts Delay by Assessment

12 4. Bottleneck Between Wind Resources and Electricity Demand Each region in Japan has its own utility tasked with preserving the demand/supply balance. With the increase of wind generation in appropriate areas, issues arise in terms of facilities and rules when considering transmission to far away demand locations. Maximum Demand Onshore Wind Potential Hokkaido 5.6GW 140GW Tohoku 15GW 73GW Tokyo 64GW 4GW Chubu 28GW 8GW Hokuriku 5.6GW 5GW Kansai 33GW 13GW Shikoku 5.9GW 5GW Chugoku 12GW 9GW Kyushu 17GW 21GW 21GW Capacity of transmission lines between supply and demand regions is insufficient. High volume transmission lines do not match wind power specs. Kyushu Electric Power 9GW Chugoku Electric Power 16.7GW Shikoku Electric Power 5GW 5GW Kansai Electric Power Good for Wind Power Generation Hokuriku Electric Power 13GW 5.6GW Chubu Electric Power 8GW Tohoku Electric Power Hokkaido Electric Power Tokyo Electri c Power 140GW 73GW 4GW Demand Area Wind Introduction Potential Source : FEPC, Ministry of the Environment 12

13 METI decided to build grid lines by public fund 全国基幹連系系統 平成 22 年 6 月時点 Hokkaido Tohoku - There are plenty of wind energy resources in Hokkaido and Tohoku. High capacity factor can be expected in these area. - ANRE(Agency for Natural Resources and Energy) in METI has decided to use public fund for building new grid lines for wind power. 50% of initial cost shall be supported by official fund. - METI got 25 billion JPY at 2013 budget for the 1 st step. It is to used for Hokkaido s grid. Estimated Grid Cost for Renewable Energies by METI - Regional : 310 billion JPY (- Inter Region : 1170 billion JPY) - Tohoku s extension starts from These regional grids is to be built within 10 years. 13

14 Hokkaido and Tohoku have large wind energy potential Ref:METI Northern Hokkaido: 0.29GW 3.935GW By 290 billion JPY, from 2013 Tohoku: 1.94GW 2.22GW By 20 billion JPY, from 2014

15 5. Wind Turbine Industries grow up in Japan WTG Factory Components Factory University, Institutes Fukuoka Gearbox Shop Ishibashi Manufacturing Co. Nagasaki Generator Factory Mitsubishi Electric Co. Nagasaki WTG Factory Blade Shop Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. Kobe Generator Factory Mitsubishi Electric Co. Kyushu University 9 Muroran Blade Shop Japan Steel Works Hakui&Kuwana Bearing Shop, NTN Co Osaka Factory Komaihaltec Mie Fujisawa University Bearing Ouji Bearing Shop Shop, JTEKT Co. NTN Co Ota Generator Factory Meidensha Co. Utsunomiya WTG Factory Fuji Heavy Industries, Ltd. moved after July 2012 Hitachi Generator Factory Hitachi Electric Co. Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Ashikaga Inst. of Technology Tokyo University Yokohama WTG Factory Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. 15

16 6. Japanese Typhoon Experience New Guideline for Wind Turbines in Japan and Asian Area Typhoon Attack Miyako Island was hit by huge Typhoon #14 on 11.Sep.2003 and all 7 WT were destroyed; 3 fallen down, 3 lost blades, 1 lost nacelle roof 16

17 Typhoon Class Proposal from Japan to IEC Committee For tropical cyclone regions; New WT class for tropical cyclone regions (Class T for Tropical cyclone regions) Flexibility in ratio of V ave /V ref for tropical cyclone regions Advanced prediction methodology for extreme wind speed by Monte Carlo simulation for high turbulence regions; New turbulence category for high turbulence regions (Category H for High turbulence regions) New model for wake and wind farm turbulence taking into account the complex terrain effect Class I II III T S V ref [m/s] V av [m/s] H 0.18 I ref a 0.16 b 0.14 c Values specified by the designer Proposal of additional class and category in IEC 17

18 7. Offshore Wind Power Projects in Japan Hakata 2011 Lens type 3kW X 2units (Floating) Kabashima at Goto Islands 2012 FHI 100kW 2013 Hitachi 2MW (Floating) Sakata, 2004 Vestas 2MW X 5units Hibikinada 2013 JSW 2MW Setana 2004 Vestas 600kW X 2units Black: Early exam. Green: Founded type Brown: Floating(small) Blue: Floating type : National Project Fukushima 2013 Hitachi 2MW 2014 MHI 7MW 2014 MHI 7MW (Floating) Kamisu 2010 FHI 2MW X 7units 2013 Hitachi 2MW X 8units Sasebo, /10 Model (Floating) Choshi Jan 2013 MHI 2.4MW Note: FHI s WTG division has merged by Hitachi in July 2012.

19 Offshore Wind Power National Projects 1. Demonstration of Offshore Wind Power Generation (by NEDO) - At Choshi in Chiba Pref. and at Hibikinada in Fukuoka Pref billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - MHI 2.4MW on the gravity foundation at Choshi in Jan JSW 2MW on the hybrid jacket foundation at Hibikinada in Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Demonstration Project (by MOE) - Near Kabashima Island at Goto Islands in Nagasaki Pref billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - FHI Subaru(Hitachi) 100kW on the spar floater in Aug Hitachi 2MW on the spar floater in Floating Offshore Wind Farm Demonstration Project (by METI) - At Fukushima. 9.5 billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. - Hitachi 2MW on the 4 column semi-sub. floater in MHI 7MW (SeaAngel) on the 3 column semi-sub. floater in MHI 7MW on the advanced spar floater in around Advanced Wind Turbine Technology Development (by NEDO) - To develop 7MW offshore turbine by advanced technologies - 2 billion JPY budget for 2013 fiscal year. 19

20 National project of offshore wind in Cho-shi area By NEDO in October, 2012

21 National project of offshore wind in Kita-Kyushu area By NEDO in May, 20132

22 MOE Floating WTG Project at Kabashima in Goto Islands, Nagasaki Pref. 22

23 METI Offshore Wind Energy Project, Fukushima (FY2011~15) Floating offshore wind farm demonstration project (FY rd supplementary budget : 12.5 billion yen) Contents of project Summary / Purpose Affected areas in the east, in particular, Fukushima, are recovering from the earthquake damage. These areas are expected to provide large scale job creation due to accumulation of industries focused on renewable energy. Image of project Demonstration area : offshore of Fukushima Prefecture Such areas as well as a better wind conditions, are expected to take advantage of the former facilities of the offshore gas field, already being developed or currently in not use, offshore areas of Fukushima Prefecture are favorable. This project will clarify the safety, reliability and economic potential of floating offshore wind by demonstration and experiments of the world's largest level floating offshore wind power generation system off the coast of Fukushima prefecture. After the completion of this project, This project is sought to make a new power generation business through the development of equipment as a result of this project. By doing so, we aim to make a Japan a hub of wind power and contribute to the industrial revival in Fukushima 地上高 70mの年平均風速 (m/s) Demonstration assumed area Conditions(applicant, subsidiary rate, etc.) Entrust METI Source : METI, Japan Private Organization, etc Image of floating offshore wind power (provision:mes, Tokyo Univ., TEPCO) 23 23

24 Our Answers: Questions: Why Floating? Is it Possible? Realistic? We are not sure about this business, because this is a new technology. But, We expect to create a new industry by the offshore wind power development. And it is useful for the Tohoku district s revival from the disaster. Therefore at Fukushima. At last, if you begin a new business, you need Animal Spirit as John Maynard Keynes said. We Japanese have brave hearts to challenge the new technology.

25 Conclusion Japan was not so eager to wind power development in past days. Because there are many hurdles against wind power development in Japan. Japan has changed to pro-wind action after Fukushima accident. Offshore wind is one of the key technologies. We are trying to remove these hurdles now. But, it needs some years to realize. Please expect Future wind power in Japan. 25